CCID Consulting estimates upsurge in aluminum for automobile bodies in China if technical breakthroughs in alloy performance and application technology are made
14 July 2012
China-based and -focused CCID Consulting estimates that the China passenger vehicle market will need at least 1.802 million tons of aluminum sheets annually, assuming that aluminum replaces 15% of the steel used in automobile manufacturing by 2015. Even if aluminum only replaces 5% of the steel, the demand will still be as large as 601,000 tons.
While the the growth rate of China’s automobile sales volume shrank in 2011 to 2.45%—partly due to the state’s suspension of auto consumption incentive policies—factors driving the growth of China’s automobile market remained unchanged, CCID notes. The progress of urbanization and the upgrade of the consumption structure will continue to boost the automobile consumption. CCID estimates that China’s automobile market will keep a stable growth from 2012 to 2015, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.1%. The sales volume is expected to reach 25.287 million by 2015.
As the demand for lightweight vehicles expands, aluminum has become the best alternative material for automobile construction due to its good mechanical property, processability, corrosion-resistance and weldability. With a density only one third of that of steel, the aluminum body of a passenger vehicle weighs 46% less than a traditional steel one, which also improves safety and fuel efficiency.
The stable growth of demand in the automobile market lays a solid foundation for aluminum application.
Specifically, CCID says, aluminum sheets for automobile body will be the most promising sector. Currently among all aluminum parts used in automobile construction, including castings, forgings, section bars and sheets, castings take up the biggest share.
Aluminum has been used in the automobile body, mainly for engine cabin covers, doors and trunk lids, in Europe, North America, Japan and South Korea, represented by Audi’s A8 and A2, Chrysler’s Prowler and Jeep, Subaru’s Legacy and Hyundai’s Motors Genesis. However, China has seen a slow growth of aluminum application in automobile due to technical bottlenecks. Once the required technical breakthroughs are achieved, massive application of aluminum sheets in automobile construction can be expected.
The key will be improve aluminum sheets’ performance and make breakthroughs in application technologies.
As a result of the technical bottlenecks concerning aluminum sheets’ performance and application, the domestic automobile manufacturers are facing high costs of aluminum application and are reluctant to use aluminum sheets. Meanwhile, as foreign-owned aluminum enterprises such as Novelis have geared up for the Chinese market, the domestic research institutes, aluminum companies and automobile manufacturers will have to unite and accelerate the R&D process to make technical breakthroughs in the two aspects.
Aluminum alloys currently used in automobile bodies include Al-Cu-Mg (2000 series), Al-Mg (5000 series) and Al-Mg-Si (6000 series). The 5000-series alloys offer low cost and good shaping property, but they will leave traces of tensile strain after being shaped and need re-polishing with abrasive materials. In response to this, aluminum materials suppliers have developed the 6000-series alloys, which are preferred by automobile manufacturers for their better performance in extension, stretching and anti-pit ability. However, being thick and expensive, aluminum alloy sheets currently found in the Chinese market still cannot meet the requirements of the automobile manufacturers.
Regarding the application technologies, including preprocessing, thermal treatment, shaping, soldering, spray finishing and baking, the key is to have the aluminum companies and automobile manufacturers conduct R&D cooperation and develop such techniques as spray finishing and selection of paint colors. In addition, automobile manufacturers also need to purchase required devices such as soldering devices if they decide to use aluminum sheets.
CCID Consulting Co., Ltd. is the first Chinese consulting firm listed in the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong and is directly affiliated to China Center for Information Industry Development (hereinafter known as CCID Group). Headquartered in Beijing, CCID Consulting has so far set up branch offices in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Xi’an, Wuhan and Nanjing with more than 300 professional consultants.
The company’s business scope has covered more than 200 large and medium-sized cities in China.
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