New cost forecast model finds 2020 cost/kW for PEM fuel cell stacks and Li-ion high-power batteries could be roughly equal
10 August 2012
Researchers at Daimler AG and a colleague at Albstadt-Sigmaringen University have developed a new cost forecast model for hydrogen fuel cell stacks and Li-ion batteries using a two-factor experience curve approach. Among the findings reported in a paper published in the International Journal of hydrogen energy were a year 2020 cost for fuel cell stacks of €36–€49/kW; for Li-ion high power batteries, €38–€46/kW; and for high-energy Li-ion batteries, €309–€408/kWh.
The endogenous cost degression in the model is driven by output and patent publications. To demonstrate the performance of the model, the team used the proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell stack, a high-energy lithium-ion battery and a high-power lithium-ion battery.
The cost trends of the individual components in the electric drive train are a central aspect of the future market success of the different vehicle drive systems.
A comparison of the forecast values calculated using this model with the industry targets determined by McKinsey in the study “A portfolio of power-trains for Europe” shows that the realization of these targets for the fuel cell stack is possible if the product volume increases rapidly enough. For the high energy and high power lithium-ion battery targets, the product volume and research and development activity, measured here in terms of patent growth, need to grow compared to the trend of the last years.—Mayer et al.
Thomas Mayer, Danny Kreyenberg, Jörg Wind, Frank Braun (2012) Feasibility study of 2020 target costs for PEM fuel cells and lithium-ion batteries: A two-factor experience curve approach, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, doi: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2012.07.022
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