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Lux: charging stations for electric vehicles will be $1.2B market in 2020

30 October 2012

With government policy and investment driving automotive companies toward plug-in vehicles, the technology for delivering electricity to these vehicles will rise to a $1.2 billion market in 2020, according to a Lux Research report.

Lux Research developed a forecast using vehicle sales to project the global electric-vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) market. Overall, despite slow adoption of plug-in vehicles, the charging station market will grow in unit sales from around 120,000 in 2012 to 1.3 million units in 2020, rising from $140 million in 2012 to $1.15 billion in 2020, a CAGR of 30%.

Lux Research analysts studied a web of partnerships in the EVSE market, besides building a forecast for its growth. Among their findings:

  • Europe is the leader. Europe will lead the global market with 2020 annual sales of 480,000 units. China forges ahead after a slow start, growing to 277,000 annual unit sales of charging stations by 2020.

  • China consumes the most energy. In 2020, plug-in vehicles in China will consume 1.9 TWh of electricity, or 23% of all energy consumed by plug-ins, the largest by any individual country, translating into $155 million in revenue for Chinese utilities.

  • Web of partnerships is key. Auto OEMs such as Ford, Daimler, GM, BMW, and Nissan form the core of charging infrastructure partnerships, with complex inter-connections with emerging companies—such as BMW’s recent investment in Coulomb Technologies—and utilities.

The report, titled “Charging Ahead: Finding Reality in the Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment Market,” is part of the Lux Research Electric Vehicle Intelligence service.

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Comments

Or we could save a billion dollars of mostly taxpayer money by encouraging electric vehicles to have a small range-assist engine. It is always so easy to spend other people's money.

Or we could realize that range anxiety and the need for public charging is a false need and fear created to allow our techno-chondriac populous to have a false excuse for their lack of support for the EV products. They whine about oil, but present them with the alternative and they whine too, and exclaim the myriad of "reasons" why they can't accept it. "Range Anxiety", too expensive, not enough charging stations, exploding batteries, lithium rarity, rare earth rarity... On it goes those excuses to continue to serve oil, the master of our government.

I don't recall history saying government money built fuel stations 100 years ago.

There wasn't a whole pile of entrenched interests favoring gasoline over electrics 100 years ago either.

Citizen and SJC are right.

1. Entrenched interests are not stopping EVs.

2. Poor range, high expense, not enough charging stations, too long to charge are stopping EVs - and quite rightly so.

3. Oil is not the master of our government.

4. Our government is the master of the people

5. And presently our government confiscates my money and gives it to fiscally challenged EV buyers - when EVs are CLEARLY a worse choice than hybrids (which are still, after 12 years of subsidies, none too rational a buy either - even with subsidies).

So, what they are saying is that the unit cost of charging stations will fall from an average of $1166 today, to $884 in eight years.

I can see prices falling even more, given that they don't contain much more than a 30A/220V circuit on one end and a plug on the other, with a GFCI in between and a few blinky lights. I think that they will be cheap enough that the hardware cost become immaterial, just like any other electric plug.

50 A 600 V triacs appear to be running about $5 apiece these days.  One of those for each leg of the 220 line and you've got full electronic isolation in half a cycle.  Add a mechanical backup (50 A circuit breaker, 14 kA surge rating, $70), a trifilar transformer for ground-fault detection, and a few other doodads and you're up to maybe $150 in parts, retail.

I don't see these things coming in at more than $250 a few years from now.

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