Pike Research forecasts 37% CAGR for EV charging equipment, with 2.4 million units sold in 2020; wireless charging to show strong growth
In a new report, Pike Research forecasts that global sales of electric vehicle (EV) charging equipment (EVSE) will grow at a steady pace from 2012 to 2020 as the global market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) grows. The EVSE market will rise from below 200,000 units sold in 2012 to almost 2.4 million in 2020 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37%, according to Pike’s projections.
Pike anticipates more than 135,000 PEVs will be sold globally in 2012; the past year accordingly has also seen a major uptick in EVSE deployments, in the number of companies competing in this space, and in the number and types of EVSE on the market. Pike expects more than 80 different models of PEVs will be found on roadways across the globe next year, and at least as many models of charging equipment for residential and commercial customers will be available.
Pike Research expects that the market for residential charging equipment will grow at a slower rate than commercial charging equipment due to the PEV market transitioning from early adopters in regions such as North America— where consumers have a higher than average likelihood of having a secured parking spot in which to install a charger. As the PEV market grows, it will need to reach a broader base of consumers living in multi-family dwellings, leading to greater growth in the sales of commercial EVSE than in residential units, according to Pike.
In regions where fewer PEV owners have a residential charger, the ratio of commercial EVSE to vehicles will be higher because of the need to share infrastructure. By 2013, Pike says that residential EVSE will drop below 50% of the market. By 2020, residential EVSE sales will have dropped to 35% of the global market, with public charges accounting for 30%, private accounting for 16.9%, and workplace accounting for 18.5%.
Pike notes that wireless charging will begin to see real deployment in 2013, with initial sales being retrofit units. Because the technology is still on the development pathway, early sales are expected to be low, Pike suggests, around 3,000 units in 2013. The sector will experience very high growth, however, and with a CAGR of 91% will reach around 280,000 units sold annually by 2020. The market will be limited initially by the high price tag, but Pike expects this to drop steadily throughout the forecast period.
The United States will be the largest single market for EVSE from 2012 to 2020, according to Pike. Pike sees sales of EVSE in North America growing almost tenfold, from around 66,000 units in 2012 to 626,000 units in 2020. Although EVSE sales have been driven by federal stimulus dollars in 2011–2012, these projects are winding down, so sales will shift to non-publicly funded units.
The US EVSE market will be led by just a handful of states, with six states constituting roughly 50% of EVSE sales from 2012 to 2020: California; New York; Florida; Texas; Washington; and Illinois.
Europe will see the most EVSE installations during the forecast period, just slightly higher than in the Asia Pacific region. Sales will initially be driven by Western European demand, which will constitute more than 90% of European EVSE sales. Five European countries will be in the top 10 countries globally in terms of EVSE sales: Germany; France; the United Kingdom; the Netherlands; and Italy.
In the Asia Pacific region, Japan is the strongest market, according to Pike, due to the substantial investment in charging infrastructure to support PEV sales. However, China is expected to overtake Japan and become the largest market for EVSE in Asia Pacific in 2016. Both countries are also in the top 10 consumers of EVSE. The global top 10 is rounded out by Canada and Australia.
The future business model for EVSE—as publicly-funded deployments wane—is note clear, Pike notes.
Early data from EVSE deployments indicates that a majority of public station users appear to use the equipment for approximately 15 to 25 minutes or as much as 2 hours. The data also suggests that the typical amount of kWh used per Level 2 EVSE session falls between 1.3 kWh and 7.7 kWh; this is consistent with known charging rates for Level 2 units. This is also an important figure in determining what fees the site host can reasonably ask and expect to gain some revenue over and above the cost of the electricity and equipment usage.
What is less clear at present is what drivers are willing to pay for these services. Currently, it seems likely that “all you can eat” subscription plans and single price per charge models will be used in the near future. The industry seems to be converging around a very low price point for per-charge costs at $1 to $2 per charging session. This is a price point that gives little cushion to the host site to make money, but it appears to be the price most likely to garner the highest demand while still offsetting costs. From Pike Research’s analysis of potential income models for public charging, the subscription model is the most promising as a way to make money off of public charging systems at a price that will be acceptable to drivers.—“Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment”
Pike anticipates consolidation in the industry.