Pike Research forecasts 22.6M LPG vehicles globally by 2020

10 October 2012

Pike research forecasts that the number of autogas (LPG) vehicles will rise steadily through the remainder of this decade, reaching a total of 22.6 million autogas vehicles on roads worldwide by 2020.

Because the majority of vehicles converted to LPG use are handled in the aftermarket and not by OEMs, the annual sales forecast in Pike’s report, “Propane Autogas Vehicles”, represent the number of vehicles being converted each year. Most of these will be new or nearly new, but some vehicles in existing fleets will also be converted.

Pike’s annual vehicle conversion forecast indicates a total market of about 1 million in 2012 growing to nearly 1.4 million in 2020. Most regions will have limited growth of between 2% and 4%, with only the Middle East and Africa region showing a more substantial compound average growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6%, Pike suggests. In North America, the growth will also exceed 7%, but the numbers will remain relatively small as that market will only represent local fleet operations.

The autogas market is caught in a classic chicken and egg scenario. As with any fuel, availability is the key to market growth. Unfortunately, fuel suppliers have taken the view that no need exists to grow the infrastructure if not that many vehicles are equipped to use the fuel. Some form of incentive will be needed to kick-start growth if autogas is going to advance.

—Pike senior research analyst David Alexander