Pike Research updates xEV forecasts; projects Ford to lead US PEV market, followed by GM
21 December 2012
Pike Research has published an update to its earlier forecasts on xEVs: hybrid (HEVs); plug-in hybrid (PHEVs); and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). As a result of new assumptions, Pike Research has slightly reduced its forecasts for plug-in vehicles (PEVs: PHEVs and BEVs combined) from past forecasts.
This reduction was driven largely by the slow growth of BEVs in the United States (the largest market for PEVs) in 2012 and the postponement of some vehicle launches, the research firm noted. However, Pike still anticipates 39% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) between 2012 and 2020. In contrast, the CAGRs for HEVs and the total vehicle market are estimated at 6% and 2%, respectively. Highlights of the forecast include:
HEVs will be the largest segment of xEVs through the period to 2020, with anticipated sales reaching 2.1 million in 2020, or 2.1% or the total vehicle market (compared to 1.8% for PEVs). Pike expects Japan, the United States, and China to be the largest markets, with Japan accounting for between 45% and 50% of the global HEV market.
Globally, the cumulative number of BEVs on the road will reach 4.4 million vehicles by 2020, while PHEVs will see significantly fewer with 3.4 million vehicles on the road. However, in North America and Latin America, the longer driving range of PHEVs and lower petroleum fuel prices will result in higher numbers of PHEVs than BEVs on the roads in those regions.
In other regions, the high cost of fuels, large number of BEVs available, and dense urban areas with shorter driving distance requirements are anticipated to contribute to higher sales of BEVs than PHEVs.
Ford will lead the US PEV market by 2016 based on the strength of its Energi products, reaching 23% market share by 2020. General Motors will follow with 20% share.
Volkswagen will ultimately take the lead position in the German PEV market with market share of 25% by 2020, followed by BMW with 15%. Renault, the current market leader, is expected to see steady albeit slower growth, garnering 12% share in 2020.
Some of the assumptions underlying the forecasts include:
Vehicle Availability. Strong growth will occur in the number of models throughout Asia Pacific, North America, and Western Europe. Other regions will see modest growth later in the decade.
Asia Pacific Economic Growth. Asia Pacific is anticipated to see stable and steady growth. The recent slowdown in China is anticipated to be short-lived; robust growth will return as other regions’ economies rebound.
North America Economics. The slow economic rebound in the United States and Canada is expected to stumble along through 2014, after which growth will increase to a more robust level (~4% growth).
Western European Economics. The economic malaise in Greece, Italy, Spain, France, and other Western European countries is expected to largely end by 2014, with robust growth occurring by mid-decade. The euro currency is expected to remain intact (without major countries leaving the European Union).
Petroleum Fuel Prices. Based on past petroleum fuel pricing, diesel prices are forecast to grow at about 4.5% annually across the world; gasoline is expected to grow at 5.7% annually.
Government Incentives. The forecasts assume current PEV and HEV incentives remain in place throughout the forecast period or price decreases compensate for reduced incentives.
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