In its latest Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raises its forecast for global consumption of oil to 90.8 mb/d in 2013, 240 kb/d more than in last month’s report and 930 kb/d (1.0%) up on 2012. A raised 4Q12 demand estimate and heightened expectations for China are the main contributors to the hike.
Global crude oil supplies fell by 170 kb/d in December, to 91.2 mb/d. Non-OPEC production rebounded by 90 kb/d from the prior month, to 54.2 mb/d and is expected to increase by 590 kb/d in 1Q13 y-o-y. For 2013, non-OPEC production is projected to rise by 980 kb/d to 54.3 mb/d, the highest growth rate since 2010.
OPEC crude supply in December fell to its lowest level in a year at 30.65 mb/d on lower output from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Average OPEC crude output reached an historic high in 2012 in the wake of continued global demand growth. The call on OPEC crude and stock change for 2013 was raised by 100 kb/d, to 30 mb/d.
OECD industry inventories drew by 18.7 mb in November, led by a further drop of 11 mb in middle distillate stocks, extending earlier declines. On a forward demand basis, total products cover fell by 0.5 days to 30 days in November. December preliminary data point to a further 18.4 mb decline in OECD industry inventories.
Global refinery runs rose 1.5 mb/d y-o-y to around 75.9 mb/d in 4Q12, with growth in refining activity concentrated in China, India and Russia. Favorable refining margins, a gradual reduction in offline capacity and a cold snap in Asia and the FSU supported refinery throughputs in the last months of 2012.