Bosch overview of global diesel markets; optimistic about US, China
7 August 2013
Bosch, a leading supplier of technology for diesel engines, recently provided an overview of trends it sees in the diesel engine marketplace globally. In addition to the ongoing strength in the European market and India (the second-largest diesel market after Europe, Bosch sees potential strength in North America and China.
Europe. Because diesel vehicles already account for a high share of the European market, opportunities for growth are correspondingly moderate. In 2012, one of every two new diesel vehicles in the world (passenger cars and commercial vehicles) was registered in Europe. This statistic increases to two-thirds of all new registrations if the data are restricted to passenger cars, according to Bosch.
The European countries with the highest sales of diesel vehicles are Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK.
Purchasers of SUVs, who represent one of the fastest-growing segments of the auto market, almost always opt for a diesel engine. In 2012, the share of diesel engines in the large SUV segment stood at around 80%.
India. In 2012, India accounted for 15% of the global market for diesel passenger cars, the second-largest market after Europe. Currently, more than half of all new passenger car registrations are for diesel vehicles.
This needs to be seen in relation to the level of car ownership, Bosch noted: at the beginning of 2012, only 16 out of 1,000 Indian citizens owned a car.
At present, around 30% of the Indian population lives in cities and the surrounding suburban areas, a proportion that is expected to rise to 40% before long. As urbanization advances, it will be necessary to improve the capacity of infrastructures to deal with the inevitable increase in road traffic. The resulting increase in internal trade and transportation of merchandise will also lead to a significantly more prominent role for diesel, Bosch says.
The seasonal cycle in India with its annual monsoon rains also increases the demand for tractors and other agricultural machinery at certain peak times of the year. India is the world’s leading producer of three-wheel tractors and other three-wheel vehicles.United States. Diesel vehicles currently account for around 1% of all new car registrations in the United States. Bosch expects this market share to increase significantly in the future due to the expanding range of available diesel models. According to Bosch, a realistic estimate is that diesel will be able to capture a 10% share of the light vehicle market by 2018.
A number of European manufacturers already sell passenger cars equipped with modern diesel technology on the US market. In 2013,US manufacturers started to offer diesel versions of their own vehicles again. Bosch anticipates that the number of diesel models available in North America will reach 60 by 2017.
A recent example is the Chevrolet Cruze, for which Bosch supplies the diesel fuel injection system along with the exhaust-gas treatment system, engine control system, ceramic spark plugs, and sensors.
In 2012, 45% of all light commercial vehicles in the world were registered in North America. In terms of the global market, in 2012 around 14% of all heavy commercial vehicles were registered in the US and Canada. Practically all heavy commercial vehicles run on diesel fuel in the North American market.
China. China currently represents only 1% of the global market for diesel passenger cars. The introduction of the China 4 emission standards on 1 July 2013 imposes even more stringent requirements for commercial vehicles. This is likely to stimulate growth through the increased demand for advanced diesel technologies such as the common rail system from Chinese car buyers in the future, Bosch says.
China’s level of car ownership as of 2012 stands at around 37 passenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants. This offers potential for growth given the country’s steadily expanding economy. By comparison, in the European Union, the average number of vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants is approximately 500.
Brazil: no diesel in passenger cars. Brazil has banned the sale and use of diesel passenger cars. Their place is taken by vehicles that run on pure ethanol or on a mixture of ethanol and gasoline (FlexFuel). Ethanol and FlexFuel vehicles are widespread.
In general, because of the import restrictions and taxes, vehicles are very expensive in Brazil. This is reflected in the low level of car ownership at around 200 vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants.
Diesel is much more strongly represented in the commercial vehicle segment. Its share ranges from around 40% for light vehicles to almost 100% for heavy vehicles.
Japan. While the number of new registrations of diesel passenger cars has been increasing over the past few years, these vehicles still only account for less than one percent of the Japanese passenger car market. As recently as 2009, the Mercedes E class was the only diesel sedan on the market. Today, more than a dozen different models are offered by various manufacturers.
Due to the dense infrastructure on the Japanese islands, most journeys undertaken by drivers of passenger cars involve driving in urban traffic. For this reason there is a strong interest in alternative technologies such as hybrid and electric vehicles. This trend is reinforced by the availability of government subsidies for this type of vehicle as of December 2011.
Around 10% of light commercial vehicles and almost all heavy commercial vehicles are equipped with diesel engines.
TrackBack URL for this entry:
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Bosch overview of global diesel markets; optimistic about US, China: