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Study forecasts impact on electricity demand and emissions from introduction of EVs in state of São Paulo, Brazil

A new forecasting study by researchers in Brazil has concluded that every increase of 10% electric vehicles in the São Paulo fleet corresponds to an increase of about 2% of the electricity demand in the state and a corresponding reduction of about 1.3% of the total emissions in the state. São Paulo is the main state in Brazil in terms of economy, energy and environment.

If the government of São Paulo mandated a 100% electric vehicle fleet by 2035, there would be an increase of 40 million MWh of electricity compared to the base scenario.

… in order to reach these goals it is necessary that stricter policies for the transportation sector are adopted by São Paulo, as this sector concentrates the largest emissions of the state. One of them would be the use of vehicles powered by electricity, as presented in this work, which proved effective in the environmental perspective. Other policies related to other consumer sectors would contribute to achieving the goals of reducing the greenhouse gases.

—Dias et al.


  • Marcos Vinícius Xavier Dias, Jamil Haddad, Luiz Horta Nogueira, Edson da Costa Bortoni, Ricardo Alexandre Passos da Cruz, Roberto Akira Yamachita, Jose Luiz Goncalves (2014) “The impact on electricity demand and emissions due to the introduction of electric cars in the São Paulo Power System,” Energy Policy, Volume 65, Pages 298-304, doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.09.052



In 10 years, if one million out of 200 million vehicles in the U.S. is EV that will be 0.5%. If 20% of our electricity is renewable, that is 0.1% towards sustainable mobility.

If over those same ten years we build enough bio synthetic fuel plants to replace 10% of our transportation fuels made from refined oil, we are 10% towards sustainable mobility.

For the same investment we can be 100 times closer to sustainable mobility.


Another way to look at it:

If we keep eating more and more junk food, drinking more so called power sweet drinks, continue smoking, BURNING FUELS and using more dirty CPP; more people could die or be injured-handicapped than babies are born?

Effective population could start going down and so would pollution and GHG?

That trend had already started in China before the 'one' baby per family policy was partially lifted.

Bob Wallace

"In 10 years, if one million out of 200 million vehicles in the U.S. is EV that will be 0.5%. If 20% of our electricity is renewable, that is 0.1% towards sustainable mobility."

Each year we will add vehicles to the fleet and retire vehicles to the crusher. No reason we can't build EVs rather than ICEVs. There is no practical reason we need to build EVs at a slow rate.

Wind farms get built in a hurry. Solar farms much faster. Wind and solar are now selling in the US for about 5 cents per kWh.

Can we market bio synthetic fuel for $1.50/gallon? We can charge EVs for that price.

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