Study projects explosive growth in African emissions from combustion of fossil fuels and biofuels absent regulation
According to a new study by researchers from France, emissions of gases and particles from the combustion of fossil fuels and biofuels in Africa are expected to increase significantly in the near future due to the rapid growth of African cities and megacities. African combustion emissions already contribute significantly to global emissions.
The findings, reported in an open access paper in the journal Environmental Research Letters, predict very large increases in black carbon, organic carbon, CO, NOx, SO2 and non-methane hydrocarbon emissions if no emission regulations are implemented.
In 2005, the contribution from Africa to the total global emissions amounted to about 5% for SO2 and NOx, to 20% for OC, and of the order of 10% for CO, BC and NMHC. In 2030, the African contribution significantly increases for all species, for all the inventories.
For example, in 2030, African OC will represent 54% on average of the global anthropogenic combustion emissions, and NMHC, CO, BC, NOx and SO2 will contribute to 20–30% of the total.
The study also highlights the possible effectiveness of regulations, and their impact on future decreases in emissions and their worldwide importance.
C Liousse et al. (2014) Environ. Res. Lett. 9 035003 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/035003