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IHS: average age of vehicles on the road in US steady at 11.4 years; scrappage rate declining
9 June 2014
The combined average age of all light vehicles on the road in the U.S. remained steady at 11.4 years, based on a snapshot of vehicles in operation taken 1 Jan of this year, according to IHS Automotive.
Total light vehicles in Operation (VIO) in the US reached a record level of more than 252,700,000—an increase of more than 3.7 million (1.5 percent) since last year. In addition, new vehicle registrations outpaced scrappage by more than 24% for the first time in a decade, according to the analysis.
The average age is in line with the trend shift first seen in 2013, in which the combined fleet of cars and light trucks on the road is older than ever. New analysis, however, indicates the average age of light trucks has increased in the past year to the same age as passenger cars, both at 11.4 years. This is the first time this has happened since 1995, when the data was first reported.
In our history of tracking, we have seen a gradual increase in the average age of vehicles on the road. This year, we’re seeing somewhat of a plateau in the market, and expect it to remain over the next few years, without a major change in either direction. We attribute this to a number of factors, including the economy and the increasing quality of today’s automobiles.—Mark Seng, director, aftermarket solutions and global aftermarket practice leader at IHS Automotive
Looking ahead, IHS forecasts that average age of vehicles is likely to remain at 11.4 years through 2015, then rise to 11.5 years by 2017 and 11.7 years by 2019. This rate of growth is slowing as compared to the last five years due to the substantial increase in new vehicle sales.
The number of vehicles scrapped in 2013 was significantly fewer than in previous years, with just over 11.5 million vehicles scrapped during the 12-month timeframe analyzed by IHS Automotive. In comparison, a record high of more than 14 million vehicles were scrapped in 2012. This while VIO is up 1.5%, a rate the auto industry hasn’t seen in the US since 2004-2005.
With the shift in ownership comes shift in the age of vehicles within segments of the overall fleet, which is important to business planners in the aftermarket and service industries so they can manage inventories of parts required and plan for sales and service activity accordingly.
Based on the growth of new vehicle registrations in the past few years as the US auto industry has rebounded, IHS Automotive forecasts that the volume of vehicles 0-5 years old will increase by 32% over the next five years while vehicles in the 6-11 year old category will decline by 21%. Because of improved quality and consumers holding their cars and light trucks longer, vehicles 12-plus years old continue to grow and will increase by 15% by 2019.
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