In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts that the market for next-generation advanced batteries (i.e., beyond Li-ion), will grow from $182 million in 2014 to more than $9.4 billion in 2023. The technologies covered in the report include Lithium sulfur (LiS); Magnesium-ion (Mg-ion); solid electrolyte; next-generation flow batteries; and metal-air batteries.
The primary battery chemistry currently used for applications that require advanced batteries, lithium ion (Li-ion), has limitations that include input costs and materials scarcity. Research and development of new battery chemistries, beyond Li-ion, is advancing rapidly and will have a major impact on the battery industry in the coming years, Navigant concludes.
Although energy density has been the most sought-after goal for new battery chemistries, cost has also become an important concern for most battery buyers, according to the report.
Navigant Research expects that overall battery demand will increase from approximately 66.2 GWh in 2014 to greater than 225.3 GWh in 2023. The vast majority of these over the next 10 years will be Li-ion batteries. However, Navigant Research expects a growing niche will be carved out by new chemistries during that time period. By 2023, next-generation chemistries are projected to account for 28.6 GWh of batteries being sold—i.e., about 12.7%.
Navigant predicts that sales growth for most of these chemistries will not accelerate until the last few years of the coming 10-year period; most of them will only be introduced in the 2016-2019 time period. Their initial introduction will be followed by a few years of low growth as product designers adapt to the capabilities of the new chemistries and as manufacturing lines build up their scale, speed, and efficiency.
The lone exception is the ultracapacitor market. Ultracapacitors differ from the other next-generation advanced energy storage technologies discussed in this report in that they are already being mass manufactured today.