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ExxonMobil projects 25% energy demand increase between 2014-2040, 50% decline in carbon intensity; hybrids to be 40% of new car sales

25 January 2016

Global energy demand will increase 25% between 2014 and 2040, driven by population growth and economic expansion, ExxonMobil forecasts in the 2016 edition of its annual The Outlook for Energy. At the same time, energy efficiency gains and increased use of renewable energy sources and lower carbon fuels, such as natural gas, are expected to help reduce by half the carbon intensity of the global economy.

During the period, the world’s population will increase by about 2 billion people and emerging economies will continue to expand significantly, according to the forecast. Most growth in energy demand will occur in developing nations that are not part of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Per capita income in those countries is likely to increase by 135%.

Light duty vehicle fleet by type_full
Light-duty vehicle fleet by type - projections. ExxonMobil forecasts that by 2040, one of every four cars on the world’s roads will be a hybrid; conventional cars (primarily gasoline-powered) will still remain most popular to 2040. The company forecasts modest gains for plug-in electric cars, with cost and functionality remaining barriers. Natural gas remains challenged as a fuel for most personal vehicles. Source: ExxonMobil. Click to enlarge.

ExxonMobil expects natural gas is expected to meet about 40% of the growth in global energy needs; demand for the fuel will increase by 50%. Nuclear and renewable energy sources—including bio-energy, hydro, geothermal, wind, and solar—are also likely to account for nearly 40% of the growth in global energy demand by 2040. By then, they are expected to make up nearly 25% of supplies of which nuclear alone represents about one third.

Global vehicle fuel efficiency_full
Global vehicle fuel efficiency - projections. Cars and other LDVs will become more fuel-efficient through 2040, ,with the average fuel economy rising from 25 mpg to about 45 mpg and average fuel consumption dropping by half, to about 5 liters/100 km. On-road fuel economy varies significantly by region. Source: ExxonMobil. Click to enlarge.

The outlook projects that global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will peak around 2030 and then start to decline. Emissions in OECD nations are projected to fall by about 20% from 2014 to 2040.

The Outlook for Energy is ExxonMobil’s long-range forecast developed by its economists, engineers and scientists through data-driven analysis. It examines energy supply and demand trends for approximately 100 countries, 15 demand sectors and 20 different energy types.

Our forecast is used as a foundation for the company’s business strategies and to help guide multi-billion dollar investment decisions. For many years the outlook has taken into account policies established to reduce energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. The climate accord reached at the recent COP 21 conference in Paris set many new goals, and while many related policies are still emerging, the outlook continues to anticipate that such policies will increase the cost of carbon dioxide emissions over time.

—William Colton, vice president of ExxonMobil Corporate Strategic Planning

Light duty vehicle demand trends_full
Light-duty vehicle demand trends - projections. ExxonMobil forecasts that the amount of fuel used by light-duty vehicles in the US and other OECD countries will decline. Non-OECD share of global light-duty demand rises from 40% now to 60% in 2040. China’s LDV demand grows, then flattens as fuel economy improves and car penetration slows. LDV demand outside the OECD and China will grow about 50%. Source: ExxonMobil. Click to enlarge.

Key findings of the report include:

  • In 2040, oil and natural gas are expected to make up nearly 60% of global supplies, while nuclear and renewables will be approaching 25%. Oil will provide one third of the world’s energy in 2040, remaining the Nº 1 source of fuel, and natural gas will move into second place.

  • North America, which for decades had been an oil importer, is on pace to become a net exporter around 2020.

  • India will surpass China as the world’s most populous nation, with 1.6 billion people. The two countries are expected to account for almost half of the growth in global energy demand.

  • Global demand for electricity is expected to increase by 65%, and 85% of the increase is in non-OECD nations.

  • The share of the world’s electricity generated by coal is expected to fall to about 30% in 2040 from approximately 40% in 2014.

  • Global energy demand from transportation is projected to rise by about 30%, and practically all the growth will be in non-OECD countries.

  • Sales of new hybrids are expected to jump from about 2% of new-car sales in 2014 to more than 40% by 2040, when one in four cars in the world will be a hybrid. Average fuel economy will rise from 25 to about 45 miles per gallon.

  • Already the world’s largest oil-importing region, Asia Pacific’s net imports are projected to rise by more than 50% by 2040 as domestic production remains steady and demand increases.

January 25, 2016 in Electric (Battery), Emissions, Forecasts, Fuel Efficiency, Fuels, Plug-ins | Permalink | Comments (9)

Comments

By 2040?
EV's will be 100% of car sales.
These guys are BLIND.

By 2040, IF there are any "hybrids" for sale, they will have 500 miles of EV range, before the gas engine kicks in to fuel the hybrid. Do they not know of the Chevy Bolt with 200 miles of range.

It's time to get into SPYX.

The two main area of transition from Fossil Fuels to Renewables is Transportation, which is basically served by crude oil, and Power Generation, which is dominated by coal and natural gas.

This presentation is oil company propaganda that is designed and published by paid ad men to slow down the demise of fossil fuels. Unfortunately, it is effective on those of us who are ignorant of the true facts. Many U.S. citizens are too busy trying to keep ahead of their debts to study the problem of using fossil fuels. But, most of those that post here understand...now it's up to us to educate people on the facts by posting the information to general media publications, i.e., newspapers, national news sites, etc., not to just green sites and publications. Take up the fight. When you read mis-information about renewables, POST!...it feels good!

If these guys are correct, we will be driving our excellent Toyota Hybrids (Prius and Camrys) for another 20+ years.

We may have the opportunity to switch from all weather Hybrids to extended range all weather FCEVs sometime in the next decade?

The thing that changes these predictions completely is the emergence of self-driving everything. We will not need that many light duty vehicles when people stop buying cars and rely on autonomous taxis instead that does over 100k miles per year instead of about 15k miles per vehicle per year. With that many miles battery electric is more economical than oil so oil demand will disappear also. The same goes for transportation of goods. It will by automated using autonomous trucks and robots. Diesel and gasoline will cost more than electricity so we stop using it in an automated world.

It cost about 1.5 USD per mile to ride a human driven taxi. Uber took 15 cents out of that cost by using a datacenter and aps for taxi hiring instead. So we get 1.35 USD per mile. Self-driving Uber taxi’s will take 1 USD out of the cost so we get 0.35 USD per mile. However, we are not done. Rightsizing using self-driving two seaters instead of large 5 seaters will cut cost to 20 cents per mile. Moreover designing the car for durability and low maintenance (1 million miles to scrap) will cut price to 15 cents per mile. Finally, making the self driving technology superior and reducing accidents to a minimum will bring the cost per mile down to about 10 cents per mile. This is revolutionary it will change everything and these changes will happen on a massive scale after 2020.

I think Exxon's projections for future oil demand are highly optimistic from an oil companies point of view, but that is what I'd expect an oil company to do. If their true expectations are a decline in oil demand and they publish it, what is that likely to do to share prices and how will that affect the whole industry? Slow long term growth is probably defensible based on historic trends so why say anything disruptive?

They probably find it more prudent to make a conservative and non-controversial public forecasts which in reality are just guess's in an environment where total collapse of demand over the next 25 years would not be an unrealistic possibility.

Privately I suspect the big oilcos would consider the viewpoints of the Harveys and Hendriks as being within the realm of possibility. I've recently seen the notion of diminishing demand creep into the discussions with Wall Street talking heads which would have been unheard of only a few years ago.

Actually this projection is remarkable for any oil company and they only got 2 things wrong.
First, they correctly project that light duty vehicle demand will decline in the US and Europe. They fail to project that China and India will also have a similar decline and that this decline will be accelerated reaching these levels well before 2040 (my guess 2025).
Second, they predict a rise in hybrids not Electric/PHEV/Fuel Cells. This is backwards. EV and PHEV will have a much greater impact probably exceeding gasoline vehicles. Fuel Cells will have an impact on heavy-duty vehicles not light-duty vehicles.

Generation Y is progressively buying and driving less vehicles because they cannot afford it.

Wild Capitalism or higher profits at all cost is moving capital from the 99+% to the 1% at an accelerated rate in USA, EU, Japan, China, Canada, Australia etc.

In USA, 62 of the richest billionaires already control more assets than 50% of the country's population. Many billionaires no longer re-invest their huge profits into new production facilities or in their own country. Trillions are hidden away into financial heavens to allow having to pay taxes.

Billionaires are getting richer and the 99+% are progressively getting poorer, so poor that they cannot afford to buy expensive cars/SUVs and aimlessly drive around as generation X used to do.

Generation Y will walk, bicycle, share vehicles and use lower cost public transports more than generation X because they are poorer not because they do not like it.

HEVs appeal to more (50+%) buyers because they are without access to home charging facilities required by PHEVs and most BEVs owners.

Extended range (600+ Km) affordable (under $40K in 2015 $$) BEVs and/or equivalent performance/price FCEVs may/will cut in the sales of HEVs by 2030/2035 or so?

If so, our excellent Toyota HEVs may have to be traded in a bit before the end of their useful life.

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