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Lux: plug-in vehicle battery market to hit $10B in 2020; 6 carmakers = 90% of demand; VW to show most growth

Led by Tesla, China’s BYD, and Volkswagen, the battery market for plug-in vehicles will rise to $10 billion in 2020, with electric vehicles (EV) emerging as the drivetrain of choice, according to a new forecast by Lux Research. Volkswagen will show the most growth as it focuses on plug-ins following its emissions scandal, while Toyota will continue to lag in plug-in sales as it focuses more on hybrids and fuel cells.

Just six large carmakers will account for 90% of the battery demand: Tesla, BYD, Volkswagen, General Motors (GM), Renault-Nissan and BMW. Among battery-makers, Panasonic will keep its lead with 46% market share, followed by BYD, LG Chem, NEC, Samsung SDI and others.

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Plug-in adoption is ultimately being fueled by rapidly decreasing battery costs and the success of early EVs such as Tesla’s Model S and Nissan’s Leaf, which has forced a number of other OEMs to make more serious commitments to developing plug-in vehicles. Consumers will soon be able to purchase electric vehicles with 200 miles of range for less than $40,000, almost half the price of the long range EVs available today.

—Chris Robinson, Lux Research Associate and lead author

The repor—“Segmenting the $10 Billion Battery Market for Plug-in Vehicles: Market Share Projections for OEMs, Individual Models, and Suppliers”— forecasts the market for about 90 plug-ins and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) and identified implications for the energy storage industry. Among their findings:

  • EVs will take a giant share of battery demand. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) will do well in unit sales, accounting for 740,000 of 1.5 million plug-in vehicles. Still, EVs will account for more than 80% of the energy storage demand, due to their larger battery packs.

  • Tesla’s dominance will grow. Tesla, driven by its forthcoming Model 3, will continue to power the lion’s share of battery demand from EVs through 2020. Although the company is unlikely to meet its own aggressive sales targets, according to Lux, Tesla will still account for nearly half of the EV market’s battery consumption.

  • BYD will lose PHEV lead in 2019. BYD will dominate battery demand from PHEVs on the strength of robust sales driven by generous subsidies. But the Chinese company will cede its lead in 2019 when European and American carmakers gain ground.

Comments

Davemart

Yep, the plug is in - for Tesla.

Discard current trends, and invent new 'uns.

Easy, really.

Davemart

And Toyota apparently don't know how to build a plug in Prius, and it is a guaranteed flop.

DaveD

My GOD, that's a terrible chart...or terribly labeled. It should be called "EV Market Share by Brand" or some such.

Account Deleted

So far only Tesla and BYD have been able to grow sales by more than 50% annually. There are no arguments why BYD should suddenly start to grow far less than they currently do. I think BYD will play a bigger role than the one depicted. The Leaf has not been a success as Nissan planned for 250k units per year but has never sold more than 50k units per year.

The Big Bang in the global auto-industry will happen shortly after 2020 when the first commercial driverless taxis and trucks start driving around with people and goods. That will change everything very fast and I expect half of all auto-makers that we know today will bankrupt because they cannot convert fast enough their business model from selling cars and trucks to selling miles per passenger or miles per ton of goods and packages.

Cars and trucks will be built for fleet ownership and to last for at least a million miles and to be able to do over 100k miles per year at the lowest cost per mile possible and that means they will all be battery electric and they will not use much steel that rust and is non durable compared to composites and aluminium.

HarveyD

Do not right off BYD.

Many major Chinese cities have ordered 1,000+ e-buses each from BYD, e-trucks and many more e-taxis will soon follow.

Since BYD makes its own batteries, it will not be long before they catch up and surpass TESLA/Panasonic.

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