Navigant Research forecasts battery-electric to be leading type of electric powertrain for buses through 2026
In a new report, “Medium and Heavy Duty Buses with Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, Battery Electric, and Fuel Cell Powertrains: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts”, Navigant Research forecasts that the battery EV (BEV) will be the leading type of electric powertrain for buses through 2026. According to Navigant Research, the total global market for electric drive buses is expected to grow from about 119,141 buses in 2016 to 181,055 in 2026.
Navigant anticipates that hybrid drive will grow steadily, while fuel cells will begin to enter volume production by the end of 2026. Plug-in hybrid drive is expected to grow for the rest of the current decade and then see sales begin to drop off.
The forecast, Navigant notes, is led by the market in China. Asia Pacific numbers typically skew automotive sales forecasts due to relative size and recent growth rates, but the effect is more extreme in the bus market. In 2015, the Chinese government removed subsidies on hybrid buses to increase the incentive to build buses with all-electric and plug-in drive.