Juniper Research: taxi sector to lead self-driving market to >22M consumer vehicles on the road by 2025
New findings from Juniper Research project that the annual production of self-driving cars will reach 14.5 million in 2025, up significantly from only a few thousands in 2020, resulting in a global installed base of more than 22 million consumer vehicles by 2025.
The new research, Autonomous Vehicles & ADAS: Adoption, Regulation & Business Models 2016-2025, found that the market adoption of AV (Autonomous Vehicle) technology is set to accelerate over the next few years, driven by increasingly stringent vehicle safety specifications; environmental pressures; and rapid technological developments.
The research suggests that driverless vehicles will have a disruptive impact on transportation around the world and will ultimately lead to millions of professional drivers being made redundant. Juniper predicts that city-based taxi services will be one of the key early adopters of driverless vehicles.
The introduction of driverless cars will result in fundamental changes to the automotive world and society in general; and it is clear that the boundaries between private vehicle ownership, car sharing and rental fleets will increasingly become blurred.—research author Gareth Owen
However, the research cautioned that following the first fatality in an AV vehicle—the recent Tesla S accident in Florida—the AV industry must convince the public that their vehicles are completely safe.
Juniper found that a number of major OEMs including BMW, Toyota and GM are accelerating their AV development and testing programmes and now have firm plans to launch production vehicles. As a result, Juniper forecasts that driverless vehicles will start to become widespread in the 2020-2025 timeframe, although they will initially be confined to city centers or key routes due to the need for extensive V2X (Vehicle-To-Everything) infrastructure.
Juniper believes that Level 4 vehicles will not be deployed in any significant numbers until well into the second half of the forecast period (2020-2025), although some OEMs expect to launch some vehicles before 2020.
Juniper expects that the Far East & China region will either lead, or at least be on a par, with North America and West Europe in terms of the number of Level 4 vehicles deployed at the end of 2020.
Juniper expects the Far East & China region to extend its market position thereafter so that by the end of 2025, it will dominate the market with a market share of 34%, followed by North America and West Europe.
Unsurprisingly, the lowest adoption rates will be seen in the less affluent regions of the Indian Subcontinent, Rest of Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East.
ABI Research: OEMs Target 2021 for rollout of Levels 4 and 5 of autonomous driving. A separate study by ABI Research projects that semi-autonomous systems will continue to dominate the market over the next decade, with SAE level 2 and 3 systems accounting for 86% of autonomous vehicles shipping in 2026. Higher levels of autonomy will gain traction quickly, representing just under one-third of autonomous vehicles shipping in 2030.
Driverless cars will transform the way mobility is consumed, bringing environmental, societal and convenience advantages to the end user. It also represents a fundamental disruption to the business model that dominated the automotive market for almost one century. OEMs have much to gain in pursuing semi-autonomous operation, maintaining the importance of the driving experience. However, recent announcements from BMW, Ford, Renault-Nissan, and Tesla signal that OEMs are not only looking to introduce higher levels of autonomy by 2021, but are also actively planning to transition from vehicle sellers to mobility providers.—James Hodgson, Industry Analyst at ABI Research
Both Ford and Renault-Nissan launched smart mobility divisions to build on the existing trend of OEM/rideshare partnerships and investments. The divisions also provide a platform for these brands to research and implement autonomous and connected technologies.
Meanwhile, the recently announced Tesla Network details how the brand intends to facilitate peer-to-peer autonomous car sharing, and how participation will impact consumer car ownership costs. ABI Research finds Tesla’s decision to withdraw the level 2 Autopilot system in favor of Enhanced Autopilot, and eventually deep learning-based autonomous functionality, consistent with SAE level 4, or even level 5, to be the most concrete example of the shift in industry attitudes toward low level semi-autonomous driving.
The spread of low-speed Traffic Jam Assist systems to more of the mass market, in tandem with the increasing combination of longitudinal and lateral assistance on highways, will see semi-autonomous vehicles retaining their dominant market share for some years. The quasi-universal 2021 target date for the rollout of more highly automated system nonetheless represents a significant acceleration in the autonomous technology market.—James Hodgson
On Track with Self-Driving Vehicles 2.0 (Juniper Research whitepaper)