Study: growth in aviation and shipping GHG emissions will undo 43% of savings from rest of transport in Europe through 2030
Growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from shipping and aviation, based on demand for liquid fossil fuels, will undo nearly half (43%) of the
Under measures already in place, land transport is expected to consume 43 Mtoe (million tonnes of oil equivalent) less energy per year in 2030 than it did in 2010, according to calculations on the European Commission’s projections for greenhouse gas emissions to 2050 by consultant CE Delft. Even this 43 Mtoe cut is less than half of what will be required from land transport under the EU’s proposed 2030 Effort Sharing Regulation.
|CE Delft estimates of EU liquid fossil fuel consumption in the transport sector. Click to enlarge.|
(The Effort Sharing Decision establishes binding annual greenhouse gas emission targets for EU member states. These targets concern emissions from most sectors not included in the ETS, such as land transport. The Effort Sharing requirements of land transport—cars, vans, trucks, trains and barges—are calculated based on a 30% reduction of their 2005 emissions levels.)
However, ships and planes in Europe will consume 19 Mtoe more fuel annually in 2030 than they did 20 years earlier. So the growth in these two sectors will undo almost half of the progress made by cars, vans, trucks, rail and inland navigation.
The study examined the demand for liquid fossil fuels in the EU transport sector for the period 2010 to 2030. For aviation and maritime transport, both intra-EU and intercontinental movements with an EU country as origin were included. The CE Delft estimates are based on figures published in the “EU energy transport and GHG trends to 2050 - reference scenario for 2013”, that accompanied the 2030 climate package Impact Assessment of the European Commission, as well as on the analysis underlying the European Commission’s Impact Assessment on MRV regulation for the maritime transport sector.
The analysis found that the share of the maritime transport sector as part of the EU demand for liquid fossil fuels rises consistently over the years, from 11% in 2010 to 14% in 2030. The share of aviation rises from 13% in 2010 to 16% in 2030.