Wood Mackenzie: EVs could account for 21% of global car fleet by 2035 under carbon-constrained scenario
New analysis by energy, metals and mining consultancy Wood Mackenzie, in collaboration with GTM Research, a Wood Mackenzie company focused on researching decarbonization and the decentralization of energy, suggests that electric vehicles could account for 21% of the global car stock by 2035 under a carbon-constrained scenario.
Wood Mackenzie’s carbon-constrained scenario focuses on consistent, marginal change that will disrupt established markets long before a wholesale switch away from hydrocarbons occurs. Among the elements of the scenario is long-term, double-digit growth for renewable energy—specifically wind and solar power—increasing to 30% of total power supply in 2035, up from 8% today. under the carbon-constrained scenario, petrochemical demand growth remains positive, although to a lesser degree than in the base case. However, the transport sector’s projected adoption of EVs would seriously disrupt oil demand.
Wood Mackenzie also notes that in addition to displacing oil demand, the growth in the EV fleet size will force internal combustion engines to become more efficient as consumers demand comparable running costs from legacy engine types. Following exponential growth in EV use, the consultancy sees oil demand hitting its peak by 2025 before declining.