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DOE: US petroleum production exceeding transportation consumption and will continue to do so through 2050

According to the US Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2015 total petroleum production exceeded all US transportation sector petroleum consumption. The EIA expects petroleum production to be greater than transportation consumption through 2040.

Including non-petroleum sources such as ethanol, the production will exceed transportation demand by about three million barrels per day in 2050.

FOTW1000_0
Source: DOE. Click to enlarge.

In 1989 US petroleum consumption for transportation surpassed total US petroleum production, which was declining, for the first time. These contrasting trends in production and consumption created a gap that was met with foreign imports of petroleum.

In 2009, however, the US production of petroleum (for all uses including, but not limited to, transportation) began to increase substantially because of new hydraulic fracturing and oil extraction technology. With other inputs included, such as ethanol, domestic production is exceeding transportation consumption.

Transportation accounts for about 70% of all US petroleum consumption.

Comments

HarveyD

Historical data indicates that USA went from Oil deficit to surplus during the Obama years. Will the DT years do better?

Lad

HD:
Trump and the Republicans are working for the benefit of the fossil fuel industries and actually condone polluting. It's up to the States and the citizens to work against these bought out politicians. Also, don't forget the DOE is run by a fossil fuel appointee who approves everything issued by DOE; that would be Rick Perry, the ex-governor of the fossil fuel state of Texas. I see everything out of DOE as designed to garner Trump's favor and biased for the benefit of fossil fuels.

Many now realize electing Donald Trump was the biggest mistake in U.S. history. The citizens still have two powers left to change things for their benefit: who you vote for and how you spend your money; Vote for the candidates who support the change off fossil fuels and spend your money on clean energy products,i.e., electric cars and solarpower, etc.

HarveyD

I agree with you Lad.

However, it seems evident that fossil + bio fuel production (in USA) increased the most under the Obama pro environment administration?

What were the (green) States doing?

Brent Jatko

The transition Rick Perry made from wind advocate (Texas has a lot of wind generation in addition to oil and gas) to coal subsidies was as disappointing as it was expected.

We are being run into the ground by a madman.

Calgarygary

Most striking is the thick yellow line left by light duty trucks.

SJC

Buyers responded well to the Ford F150 using aluminum to shed 600 pounds and gain 2 mpg. They might even like an HEV/PHEV version that gets even better mileage.

HarveyD

What would have been the buyers response for F-150 (12 mpg V8) with 20% better take off etc?

TM

The assumptions that truck and heavy truck usage will continue seems to be ignoring the electrification of their vehicles.

Exceed transportation needs is an understatement.
With the coming oil glut, not sure they will want to pump so much of it out of the ground.

Peter_XX

The more you pump (or mine) out of the ground, the more CO2 we will have in the atmosphere. This will result in cheap fuel, no restrictions for gas guzzlers and, as a result, an increase of global warming. The only hope for the globe is that Americans eventually (?) will understand the connection between global warming and the hurricanes that tend to plague the country.

sd

I look at the above chart and wonder why there is a prediction of a gain in demand starting in the 2035/2040 time frame. Of course this is far enough in the future that such predictions are basically worthless but I would expect demand to continue to drop as our birthrate is currently below replacement, vehicles are becoming more efficient, and electric vehicles will replace much of the internal combustion vehicle demand as batteries improve and prices come down. I expect that shortly, it will just be cheaper to own and operate electric local delivery trucks. It may already be cheaper to own and operate electric transit buses. Also, if autonomous vehicles become a reality, the demand for private ownership of vehicles may become less.

Anyway, so much for the peak oil predictions.

Calgarygary

The other thing that stands out is the belief that US oil production will be increased and sustained. To make such a prediction you'd need some insight into reserves and if it is reasonable to believe that there is now that much petroleum available in the US, then you'd have to expect that there are also vast amounts of new shale and offshore reserves all around the world which will keep prices down and consumption up unless there is a determined effort to not use petroleum. Such efforts would be high carbon taxes, floor prices for gasoline or diesel or outright bans. Will be interesting to see how that plays out.

In a sense Trump is right to point out that the Chinese have a vested interest in the idea of global warming because it diminishes the petroleum assets of the US and Russia while at the same time allows china to address their air pollution problems with renewable energy and export solar panels, electric cars, buses and batteries to the rest of the world

SJC

Harvey, you don't make much sense.

HarveyD

Just expressing the acquired mentally of many US and Western Canada users, where bigger is better. Hummers may be coming back?

Does that phenomena has to do with drivers (over) weight? I have a young grand-nephew in Florida. At 350+ lbs and 6' 5'' he has (and needs) the largest passenger vehicle on the market. The driver seat had to be re-enforced.

J. Boman

Gee... light and heavy trucks have increased significantly... If they have had the same drop as car the consumption would be very different:-)

SJC

Harvey, you have gone around the bend, first it is bus drivers now your obsession about drivers in general. You need mental help.

HarveyD

@SJC:

Sooner or latter, the majority will realise that using samller-lighter HEVs. PHEVs, BEVs FCEVs makes sense.

The current (and older) fad (bigger is better) drives many users to drive larger vehicles than they realy need, use more fossil fuels and create more pollution and GHG.

September and October temps have been +5C above average in our area and California is still burning.

We have to do better instead of worst.

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