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NREL study quantifies non-residential charging infrastructure needs for growing fleet of plug-in electric vehiles

A new study from the US Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) quantifies how much charging infrastructure would be needed in the United States to support various market growth scenarios for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Under the study’s central scenario (15 million PEVs in 2030), the US would need 8,500 direct current fast charging (DCFC) stations with 27,500 plugs in total, plus 601,000 non-residential Level 2 charging plugs to meet projected demand.

Sales of PEVs—plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and battery-electric vehicles (EVs)—have surged recently. Most PEV charging occurs at home, but widespread PEV adoption would require the development of a national network of non-residential charging stations. Strategically installing these stations early would maximize their economic viability while enabling efficient network growth as the PEV market matures.

The analysis found that communities will have significantly larger charging infratructure requirements than Interstate corridors.

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Summary of station and plug count estimates for the central scenario (15M PEVs in 2030). Click to enlarge.

NREL analyzed PEV charging requirements within urban and rural communities and along interstate corridors. For each type of area considered, NREL examined the station coverage needed by early-market PEVs and the station capacity required to satisfy potentially high future demand for electric charging.

The results suggest that a few hundred corridor fast-charging stations could enable long-distance EV travel between US cities. Although many of these early-market stations could be underutilized at first, NREL’s analysis of driving patterns and vehicle characteristics suggests how corridors could be prioritized and station spacing set to enhance station utility and economics.

Compared to interstate corridors, urban and rural communities are expected to have significantly larger charging infrastructure needs. About 8,000 fast-charging stations would be needed to provide a minimum level of urban and rural coverage nationwide. In a PEV market with 15 million vehicles, the total number of non-residential charging outlets or “plugs” needed to meet urban and rural demand ranges from around 100,000 to more than 1.2 million.

Understanding what drives this large range in capacity is critical. For example, whether consumers prefer long-range or short-range PEVs has a larger effect on plug needs than does the total number of PEVs on the road. The relative success of PHEVs versus EVs also has a major impact, as does the number of PHEVs that charge away from home.

This study shows how important it is to understand consumer preferences and driving behaviors when planning charging networks.

—Chris Gearhart, director of NREL’s Transportation and Hydrogen Systems Center

This work was funded by the Vehicle Technologies Office in the US Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.

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