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Frost & Sullivan: EVs could account for 22.4% of total passenger vehicle sales by 2025

In a new report, Frost & Sullivan projects that EV sales growth potential could reach 25 million units by 2025 and account for 22.4% of total passenger vehicle sales. By 2020, EVs will no longer require government support to regulate pricing, and they will cost the same as conventional cars, said Prajyot Sathe, Industry Manager Mobility, Frost & Sullivan.

Increasing city regulations, a decline in lithium-ion battery prices, and high demand in China are expected to push global EV sales to an unprecedented 1.6 million unit sales this year, with China leading the market at 49.5% market share, followed by Europe with 25.6%.

Frost & Sullivan expects solid-state batteries to be a game-changer, potentially opening up significant growth opportunities for future battery chemistries due to manufacturers’ claims of an energy density 2.5 times higher than lithium-ion batteries.

Frost & Sullivan suggests that OEMs should focus on the following to boost growth opportunities:

  1. Launch long-range battery electric vehicles with more than 200 miles in a single charge with DC charging systems;

  2. Acquire smaller companies that have established themselves in a specific market;

  3. Target $100/kWh price and invest in future battery chemistries such as solid-state and lithium/zinc air;

  4. Develop go-to-market strategies and product positioning through the SUV B-C-D segment, which has attractive and dedicated platforms;

  5. Transform dealerships to become customer-focused with brand ambassadors to improve customer experience; and

  6. Invest in smart and connected ecosystems such as car-as-a-service, battery leasing, residential batteries, and mobility services with regional customization.

Lack of standardization is the biggest challenge for the electric vehicle charging infrastructure market along with high costs and low resale value. Currently, charging stations are prevalent in areas or regions where EV sales are the highest. Energy and petrochemical companies have started investing heavily in establishing electric vehicle charging stations as they are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of the electric vehicle market.

—Prajyot Sathe

Comments

HarveyD

If near future SS batteries will have 2.5 times the performance of current 2X LiOn batteries, that would make them 5X batteries. At about $100/kWh:

1. a 100 kWh SS pack would cost about 20K USD (good for about 400 Km)
2. a 150 kWh SS pack would cost about 30K USD (good for about 600 KM)
3. a 200 kWh SS pack would cost about 40K USD (good for about 800 Km)***

*** the long range units may not have to be quick charged on the road. Overnight slower charging may do.

It is still a lot of $$$ for batteries for short-medium-long range BEVs. New technologies using lower cost materials and fully automated factories operating 7/7 could drop cost further.

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