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BNEF: E-buses to surge even faster than EVs; supply of cobalt potential risk to the pace of growth

The electrification of road transport will move into top gear in the second half of the 2020s, due to tumbling battery costs and larger-scale manufacturing, with sales of electric cars surging to 28%, and those of electric buses to 84%, of their respective global markets by 2030.

The latest long-term forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) shows sales of electric vehicles (EVs) increasing from a record 1.1 million worldwide last year to 11 million in 2025, and then surging to 30 million in 2030 as they establish cost advantage over internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. China will lead this transition, with sales there accounting for almost 50% of the global EV market in 2025 and 39% in 2030.

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Annual global light duty vehicle sales. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

The pace of electrification in transport will vary by country, particularly over the next 12 years as some markets jump ahead of others. BNEF forecasts that in 2030, EVs will make up 44% of European light-duty vehicle sales, 41% of those in China, 34% in the U.S., and 17% in Japan. However, a shortage of charging infrastructure and a lack of affordable models will hold back the market in India, so that EVs will make up just 7% of new car sales in 2030 there.

BNEF’s projections imply big opportunities for lithium-ion battery manufacturers. China is already dominant in this market, with a 59% global share of production capacity in 2018, and this is forecast to rise to 73% by 2021.

The number of combustion engined (ICE) vehicles sold per year (gasoline or diesel) is expected to start declining in the mid-2020s, as EVs bite hard into their market. In 2040, some 60 million EVs are projected to be sold, equivalent to 55% of the global light-duty vehicle market. Shared mobility cars will be a small but growing element.

E-buses. The advance of e-buses will be even more rapid than for electric cars, according to BNEF’s analysis. It shows electric buses in almost all charging configurations having a lower total cost of ownership than conventional municipal buses by 2019. There are already more than 300,000 e-buses on the road in China, and electric models are on track to dominate the global market by the late 2020s.

Developments over the last 12 months, such as manufacturers’ plans for model roll-outs and new regulations on urban pollution, have bolstered our bullish view of the prospects for EVs. The changes to our forecast this time compared to the previous one a year ago are modest, at least as far as cars are concerned. We now think EVs will be 55% of light-duty vehicle sales in 2040, rather than 54%, and represent 33% of the total car fleet worldwide.

But the big new feature of this forecast is electric buses. China has led this market in spectacular style, accounting for 99% of the world total last year. The rest of the world will follow, and by 2040 we expect 80% of the global municipal bus fleet to be electric.

—Colin McKerracher, lead analyst on advanced transportation for BNEF

BNEF expects the transition in transport to have major implications for electricity demand, and for the oil market. EVs and e-buses will use 2,000 TWh in 2040, adding 6% to global electricity demand. Meanwhile, the switch from ICE to electric vehicles is forecast to displace 7.3 million barrels a day of transport fuel.

The BNEF team has taken a detailed look at whether the increased appetite for metals such as lithium and cobalt resulting from the rise of electrified transport could lead to supply shortages for these key metals.

While we’re optimistic on EV demand over the coming years, we see two important hurdles emerging. In the short term, we see a risk of cobalt shortages in the early 2020s that could slow down some of the rapid battery cost declines we have seen recently. Looking further out, charging infrastructure is still a challenge.

—Salim Morsy, senior transportation analyst

Shared mobility. The outlook for EV sales will be influenced by how quickly charging infrastructure spreads across key markets, and also by the growth of shared mobility.

We predict that the global shared mobility fleet will swell from just under 5 million vehicles today to more than 20 million by 2040. By then over 90% of these cars will be electric, due to lower operating costs. Highly autonomous vehicles will account for 40% of the shared mobility fleet.

—Ali Izadi-Najafabadi, lead analyst for intelligent mobility at BNEF

Comments

SJC

Use iron phosphate if you have the space and weight capacity, BYD showed this can be done.

As Aha

I thought all Chinese buses uses LFP ...

Davemart

Not only does LiFePo work fine for buses, as SJC notes, but whatever may be the case for smaller vehicles, fuel cells are fine in buses, and give you range comparable with diesels.

They are also already proven to be good for 25,000 hours of service:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/08/20170830-ballard.html

Multiple vehicles run by different operators have hit that diesel-like endurance figure.

And the larger amounts of fuel needed compared to FCEV cars, which are still in their infancy, means that the cost of fuel in the US is only around $4.50kg at a bus depot:

'A kilogram of hydrogen gas, which now costs about $4.50, is roughly equal to a gallon, said Conrad. A hydrogen gas bus gets about eight to nine miles out of about a kilogram of hydrogen gas while a regular diesel bus gets about four miles to the gallon.'
http://omniproservices.com/omniweb/sarta-hydrogen-station/


Those who think that the Chinese, far and away the biggest producer of BEV buses, are not interested in FCEV ones are mistaken:

'BYD is partnering with US Hybrid Corporation to develop a hydrogen-fuel-cell range-extended battery-electric bus. The bus will utilize BYD’s battery-electric platform, integrating hydrogen fuel cell technology to eliminate operational dependency on charging.'

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/05/20180505-byd.html

HarveyD

Currently and until affordable 5X batteries are available, e-buses with FC range extenders and H2 @ $4.50/Kg could be superior for continuous 7/7/24 operations?

Lad

Looks like LFP is a good pick for lower range buses and local trucks. And, the higher level chemistry could be used in long range battery buses and trucks. No reason to use on-board complicated liquid or gas fueled electric generating devices, if simple battery packs will do the job, as Tesla says they will.

I like the idea of hydrogen fuel cells being used in electric airplanes b/c they are much cleaner than fossil fuel turbines.

SJC

I favor reforming jet fuel to hydrogen for fuel cells on planes. First they will do that for APUs then it will become an energy source for electric fan jets. There is a design with gas turbine jets on the wings with an electric in the tail. Use the turbines to climb then turn them down and run with efan boost for cruising.

Davemart

Lad said:

'No reason to use on-board complicated liquid or gas fueled electric generating devices, if simple battery packs will do the job, as Tesla says they will.'

Tesla have built zero electric buses..
BYD have built thousands, and are going for fuel cell range extenders.

SJC

Fuel cells weight less for much more range.
Save the limited batteries for more buses.

Peter_XX

So, we can expect more child labour in cobalt mining...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cobalt-children-mining-democratic-republic-congo-cbs-news-investigation/

SJC

Not if they use iron phosphate.

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