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ABI Research forecasts EV mileage share to exceed 20% by 2030, driven by car-sharing fleets

A new report by ABI research forecasts that a proportionately higher uptake of EVs in car-sharing fleets, and the higher utilization rates of those EVs, will result in global electric mileage share to exceed 20% by 2030.

While consumer adoption of EVs continues to disappoint with only 2% of all vehicles shipping in 2018 expected to be electric, city governments are increasingly becoming aware of their benefits in terms of sustainability, reduced environmental impact, and improved air quality.

The widespread introduction of urban emission zones, initially aimed at banning older diesel vehicles, will culminate in zero emission zones and city centers restricted to EVs only, according to the report by ABI Research.

Vehicle electrification adoption drivers will increasingly shift from consumer-ownership to shared urban mobility, initially ridesharing followed by driverless EV car sharing in the longer term. The state of California is preparing a bill which would mandate 20% of miles traveled via ride-hailing services to be in EVs by 2023, rising to 50% by 2026. At the same time, Uber’s EV Champions program proactively pushes ridesharing electrification through education, support, and cash incentives for driver-partners.

—Dominique Bonte, Vice President End Markets at ABI Research

This shift to electric mobility services has important consequences for both charging station and grid infrastructure requirements. The business imperative of continuous operation and availability from both a profitability and customer experience perspective will drive the need for a granular network of both DC fast charging and future wireless public charging stations.

With accelerating EV penetration, increasing stress on public grids will have to be mitigated by advanced demand-response and load balancing software solutions, EV charging management and Vehicle-to-Grid systems, widespread adoption of microgrids, and a more holistic, cross-vertical approach to energy management.

Ultimately, says ABI Research, the transportation electrification revolution will require a fundamental redesign of the grid itself, tailored to accommodate distributed and decentralized modes of renewable energy consumption and generation in urban contexts.

Finally, smart cities transportation electrification will be multimodal, with EVs complemented by electric 2-wheel vehicles (bikes, scooters, and motorbikes), shuttles, boats, and future passenger carrying drones.

ABI suggests that the dominance of car-based mobility is not sustainable. Uber’s recent investment in and partnership with Lime on electric scooter sharing and Lyft’s strategy to integrate bike and scooter sharing shows the urban mobility landscape is yet again being reshaped.

These findings are from ABI Research’s Smart Cities and Transportation Electrification report. This report is part of the company’s Smart Cities and Smart Spaces research service, which includes research, data, and Executive Foresights.

Comments

HarveyD

Near future pilotless e-drones will transport you safely (for a competitive price) and more quickly from/to, train-bus stations, airports-hotels, office-places of work, schools-play grounds to/from your front porch/roof/backyard etc.

Of course public, driverless mini-medium-large-very large, e-buses with very low fares (or selectively free) will try to compete. Fully automated (driverless) subways and suburb e-trains will complement ground e-buses.

With less private vehicles/cars in city cores, time travelling in driverless e-buses, pollution and GHGs will be greatly reduced. Multiple savings from reduced health care, travel time, accidents etc will be enough to reduce fares to zero in city cores.

SJC

"..pilotless e-drones.."
THAT is a fantasy.

Herman

Energy per pax use in short duration flight with vertical flight phases is egregiously higher than ground transport.

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