Climate Change
[Due to the increasing size of the archives, each topic page now contains only the prior 365 days of content. Access to older stories is now solely through the Monthly Archive pages or the site search function.]
New Global Survey Finds Consumers Want Government Action on Climate Change; Decreasing Willingness to Take Personal Action
November 30, 2008
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| Percentage of respondents ranking climate change higher than global economy. Click to enlarge. |
The results of a new global survey released by the HSBC Climate Partnership show that consumers want governments to stop haggling on carbon concessions and act. The Climate Confidence Monitor 2008 surveyed 12,000 people across 12 markets and found that 43% of those surveyed chose climate change ahead of global economic stability when asked about their top three concerns, despite the survey taking place in the midst of the financial market turmoil in September-October 2008.
In a clear call for resolution to the debate on emission targets, 77% of people surveyed worldwide want to see their government cutting carbon by their national “fair share” or more to allow less developed economies to grow.
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Europe Closing in on 6% Lower Carbon Road Fuel Standard by 2020
Europe is moving closer to finalizing a new fuel quality law which will require fuel suppliers to cut full life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions from road fuels by 6% between 2010 and 2020.
ENDS (Environmental Data Services) reports that the cuts are expected to come from production efficiency improvements and a switch to biofuels and other cleaner fuels. Biofuel sustainability criteria will be added to the new law once they have been agreed in separate negotiations relating to the new Renewable Energy Directive.
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Report: Climate Change Puts Forests and People At Risk; Adaptation Required to Avert Crisis
November 29, 2008
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| Examples of measures for forest adaptation. Click to enlarge. |
Unless immediate action is taken, climate change could have a devastating effect on the world’s forests and the nearly 1 billion people who depend on them for their livelihoods, according to a team of scientists from the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR).
In their report—Facing an Uncertain Future: How Forests and People can Adapt to Climate Change—released in conjunction with the UNFCCC Conference of Parties meeting in Poznán, Poland, the CIFOR researchers call for the implementation of adaptation measures to reduce the vulnerability of the forests and forest-dependent communities that will experience an unprecedented combination of climate change-associated disturbances like flooding, drought, wildfire, and other environmental challenges in the next 100 years.
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British Columbia Joins California Challenge of Denial of Automotive GHG Waiver; Province Converting 34 Vehicles to Plug-in Electrics
November 27, 2008
The Province of British Columbia, Canada (BC) has filed a legal brief with the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in support of California’s legal challenge to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which denied a waiver to implement the AB 1493 (Pavley) greenhouse gas emissions standard for vehicles. (Earlier post.)
BC introduced legislation in April that allows adoption of California greenhouse gas emission standards for vehicles. The California model will achieve greater GHG emission reductions than the proposed US federal fuel economy standards that have also been committed to by Canada as a minimum starting in 2011. An analysis by the staff of the California Air Resources Board concluded that implementing the Pavley rules in Canada would result in a cumulative total of 87 MMT of GHG reductions by calendar year 2020, compared to 58 MMT of GHG reductions achieved by the proposed federal standards.(Earlier post.)
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Study Finds Rate of Ocean Acidification Faster than Expected
University of Chicago scientists have found that the ocean is growing more acidic faster than previously thought. In addition, they have found that the increasing acidity correlates with increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, according to a paper published online by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on 24 November.
The new study is based on 24,519 measurements of ocean pH spanning eight years, which represents the first detailed dataset on variations of coastal pH at a temperate latitude—where the world’s most productive fisheries live.
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WMO: Atmospheric Concentration of Greenhouse Gases Continues to Increase
November 25, 2008
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| Changes in atmospheric radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases and the 2007 update of the NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI). 1990 is the reference year. Click to enlarge. |
Levels of climate-warming greenhouse gases continue to increase in the atmosphere, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) 2007 Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.
The globally averaged mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) reached new highs in 2007 with CO2 at 383.1 ppm (up 0.5% from 2006); CH4 at 1,789 ppb (up 0.34% from 2006); and N2O at 320.9 ppb (up 0.25% from 2006). These values are higher than those in pre-industrial times (before 1750) by 37%, 156% and 19%, respectively.
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Report Outlines Transport Policies for Cutting GHG Emissions from UK Transport by 26% by 2020
November 24, 2008
A new research report recommends a comprehensive package of transport policies that could reduce UK transport sector greenhouse gas emissions by 26% by 2020 from 2006 levels. The research comes as the Climate Change Bill passes into law and the Committee on Climate Change prepares to release its first proposal for UK carbon budgets up to 2022 on 1 December.
Current government policies, including intensive improvements to vehicle efficiency, will achieve less than a 5% reduction in CO2 on 1990 levels by 2020, according to the report, “A low carbon transport policy for the UK.” The report was prepared by Keith Buchan of Metropolitan Transport Research Unit (MTRU) and sponsored by Campaign for Better Transport.
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Road Emissions Dominate Long-Term Global Transport Climate Impact
November 23, 2008
After 100 years today’s global road emissions will lead to a temperature increase that is six times greater than the temperature increase from today’s air transport, according to a study by researchers at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo (CICERO) in Norway.
The study—“Global temperature responses to current emissions from the transport sectors”—includes the effects of all climate-relevant components of the emissions, not only CO2. It will appear in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). The study examines the effect of total global emissions, not emissions per passenger kilometer. The researchers will calculate climate impacts per passenger kilometer in a later study.
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Two New Studies Detail Impact and Acceleration of Ocean Acidification in Different Regions
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| The potential for coral growth—represented by aragonite concentration—in the Caribbean region is dramatically changing due to ocean acidification. Click to view an animation of changes from 1988 to 2007. Credit: NOAA |
Two recently published studies highlight the growing impact of ocean acidification—the lowering of the pH of seawater due to the increasing absorption of large amounts of carbon dioxide—in the Caribbean and the Southern Ocean.
A paper by scientists from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science confirms significant ocean acidification across much of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The paper, published in the 31 October issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research—Oceans, reports strong natural variations in ocean chemistry in some parts of the Caribbean that could affect the way reefs respond to future ocean acidification.
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Report: Climate Change Already Increasing Malaria and Dengue in the Pacific
November 22, 2008
by Jack Rosebro
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| World Health Organization estimation of deaths caused by anthropogenic climate change up to 2000. Click to enlarge. |
A policy brief from the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia entitled “The Sting of Climate Change”[1] argues that global climate change is exacerbating a thirty-year increase in malaria and dengue throughout maritime Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands, and that Australia, as a “fringe country” to mosquito-borne disease, should increase efforts to mitigate the spread of those diseases in both affected areas and areas not yet affected, as well as the potential of transmission to the Australian population from migrating environmental refugees.
Screening, quarantining, and treatment of immigrants from malaria-infested countries is currently carried out in Australia’s Northern Territory. The brief’s author, Dr. Sarah Potter of Environmental Health Branch, NSW Department of Health, recommends that malaria screening be extended to other states, including Queensland and Western Australia, and that dengue screening be initiated, as well.
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California Governor Issues Executive Order to Begin Planning for Adapting to Sea Level Rise
November 15, 2008
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| USGS Coastal Vulnerability Index for sea level rise for California. Click to enlarge. |
Stating that the longer California delays planning and adapting to coming sea level rise the more expensive and difficult adaptation will be, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger issued an Executive Order (S-13-08) directing a set of state agencies to begin those tasks.
Separately, a newly-released report by David Roland-Holst and Fredrich Kahrl at UC Berkeley—California Climate Risk and Response—found that the state has $4 trillion in real estate assets, of which $2.5 trillion are at risk from extreme weather events, sea level rise, and wildfires, with a projected annual price tag of $300 million to $3.9 billion over this century, depending on how warm the world gets.
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Widespread and Complex Climatic Changes Outlined in New UNEP Project Atmospheric Brown Cloud Report
November 13, 2008
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| Anthropogenic aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the period 2001-2003 for four seasons. AOD is an index for the fraction of sunlight intercepted by particles and total aerosol concentration in the vertical column. Click to enlarge. Source: UNEP |
Cities from Beijing to New Delhi are getting darker, glaciers in ranges like the Himalayas are melting faster and weather systems becoming more extreme due in part to the combined effects of man-made Atmospheric Brown Clouds (ABCs) and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
These are among the conclusions of scientists studying a more than three km-thick layer of soot and other manmade particles that stretches from the Arabian Peninsula to China and the western Pacific Ocean. The team, drawn from research centers in Asia including China and India, Europe and the United States, has just published their latest and most detailed assessment of the phenomenon. Their preliminary assessment was published in 2002.
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IEA Calls for “Global Energy Revolution” Despite Economic Crisis
November 12, 2008
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| World primary energy demand in WEO 2008 Reference Scenario. Click to enlarge. |
In his release of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2008—the latest edition of the International Energy Agency’s annual publication—IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said that the report highlights that current trends in energy supply and consumption are “patently unsustainable, environmentally, economically and socially. They can and must be altered.”
In the WEO-2008 Reference Scenario, which assumes no new government policies, world primary energy demand grows by 1.6% per year on average between 2006 and 2030—an increase of 45%. This is slower than projected last year, mainly due to the impact of the economic slowdown, prospects for higher energy prices and some new policy initiatives.
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Study Suggests Atmospheric CO2 Already in “Dangerous Zone”; Calls for Urgent Reduction Below Today’s Levels With 350 ppm as Initial Target
November 09, 2008
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| Top: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions with coal phase-out by 2030. Bottom: Resulting atmospheric CO2. Click to enlarge. Source: Hansen 2008 |
In an analysis using paleoclimate data to show how the Earth has responded to past changes of CO2, a group of ten scientists from the United States, the UK and France, conclude that the present global mean atmospheric concentration of CO2 (385 ppm and increasing about 2 ppm per year) is already in the “dangerous zone” in terms of long-term climate change.
Averting climate disasters, they argue in an open-access paper published in the journal Open Atmospheric Science Journal, requires the reduction of CO2 this century to less than the current amount via prompt policy changes. The authors argue that such reductions are feasible, but requires a moratorium on any new coal use that does not capture CO2 as the phase out of existing coal emissions by 2030. Dr. James Hansen is the lead author of the study.
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Continuation of Current Patterns of Change in Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans Could Alter Ocean Circulation on Global Scale With Impact on Climate and Biosphere
November 08, 2008
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| The dashed yellow line illustrates progression of first low salinity pulse after it exited the Arctic in 1989 and was advected downstream. Arrival dates, labeled in yellow, are indicated at each of the major shelf ecosystems, labeled in white. Colors correspond to mean sea surface temperatures for the decade of the 1990s (from orange [warmest] to purple [coldest]). Click to enlarge. Credit: Chuck Greene, Cornell |
In a November special issue of the journal Ecology, a group of scientists report that if current patterns of change in the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans continue, alterations of ocean circulation could occur on a global scale, with potentially dramatic implications for the world’s climate and biosphere.
Charles Greene of Cornell University and colleagues reconstructed the patterns of climate change in the Arctic from the Paleocene epoch to the present. Over these 65 million years, the Earth has undergone several major warming and cooling episodes, which were largely mitigated by the expansion and contraction of sea ice in the Arctic.
When the Arctic cools and ice expands, the increase ice cover increases albedo. The resulting increased reflection of the sun leads to global cooling. Likewise, when ice sheets and sea ice contract and expose the darker-colored land or ocean underneath, heat is absorbed, accelerating climate warming. Currently, the Earth is in the midst of an interglacial period, characterized by retracted ice sheets and warmer temperatures.
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Study: Very Long Term Strategy Needed for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
November 02, 2008
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| Implications of the G8 50% policy. Top panel shows historical and future emissions. The middle and bottom panels show the resulting changes in concentrations and temperature respectively. Click to enlarge. Credit: IOP |
A team of scientists in the UK have combined the outcomes of proposed policies by the G8 countries and the UK Government’s Stern Review for greenhouse gas emissions reductions with the latest knowledge of climate change feedbacks relating to the carbon cycle (the way carbon moves between the oceans, atmosphere and land).
Their findings, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, show that short-term cuts alone will not solve the problem and that policy makers need to plan for hundreds of years into the future.
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European Automakers Look for a “Supportive Framework” Including €40B in Low-Interest Loans
October 30, 2008
The European automotive industry needs a supportive framework to secure its future, according to a mid-term review of CARS21 (Competitive Automotive Regulatory System for the 21st Century) held at the European Commission in Brussels. Hosted by European Commission Vice-President Guenter Verheugen and with the participation of five automaker CEOs, national ministers and other stakeholders, the meeting reviewed progress since the start of CARS21 in 2005, and looked ahead to 2020 and beyond.
The meeting concluded that such a supportive framework should consist of four components: “better regulation”; a €40 billion (US$51.7 billion) low-interest loans package to support the development and deployment of fuel-efficient technologies (earlier post); market incentives; and favorable, reciprocal trade relations. Following the meeting, Verheugen told a news conference that the European Investment Bank could help the car industry with low-interest loans.
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Methane Emissions on the Rise Again
October 29, 2008
The amount of methane in Earth’s atmosphere shot up in 2007, bringing to an end approximately a decade in which atmospheric levels of the potent greenhouse gas were essentially stable, according to a new study led by researchers at MIT. The study, published this week in the American Geophysical Union’s Geophysical Research Letters, is based on data from a worldwide NASA-funded measurement network.
Methane—which has a global warming potential of 56 over a 20-year time horizon and 21 over a 100-year horizon (compared to CO2’s GWP of 1)—is produced by wetlands, rice paddies, cattle, and the gas and coal industries. It is destroyed in the atmosphere by reaction with the hydroxyl free radical.
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DLR Outlines Approaches for 40% Reduction in Global Light-Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions by 2050
October 27, 2008
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| Well-to-wheel CO2 emissions of light duty vehicles in the reference and energy [r]evolution scenarios from 2000 to 2050. Click to enlarge. |
A combination of higher efficiency vehicle technologies, a major switch to grid-connected electric vehicles and incentives for travellers to save CO2 could result in a reduction of well-to-wheel greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the global light-duty vehicle sector in 2050 by roughly 25% compared to 1990 and 40% compared to 2005, according to a new report produced by the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) and Greenpeace International.
Total LDV sector energy consumption in total is reduced by 23% in 2050 compared to 2005, in spite of tremendous increases in some world regions. Even with the aggressive focus on new technologies and demand reduction, 74% of the final energy used in cars will still come from fossil fuel sources, 70% from gasoline and diesel, according to the findings. Renewable electricity covers 19% of total car energy demand, biofuels cover 5% and hydrogen 2%.
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Europe Incorporates Aviation into EU Greenhouse Gas Trading System as of 2012
October 26, 2008
The European Council on Friday adopted a directive (doc. 3657/08) that includes aviation activities in the EU greenhouse gas emission allowance trading system (ETS). As of 1 January 2012, all flights arriving at or departing from an EU airport will be included in the scheme.
Operators from all states providing such flights will therefore be included, regardless of whether they are based in the EU. US-based carriers flying to and from Europe, for example, must participate in the ETS. In this context, the EU considers that the new directive is only a first step towards its final goal of a global sectoral agreement concerning the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation.
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Biofuel Companies Question ARB’s Inclusion of Indirect Effects in Low Carbon Fuel Standard
October 24, 2008
More than two-dozen advanced biofuel companies, joined by researchers and investors under the aegis of the New Fuels Alliance, submitted a letter to the California Air Resources Board (ARB) questioning ARB’s intent to include indirect land use change (ILUC)—or any kind of indirect effects enforcement against biofuels—as part of the agency’s Draft Regulation for the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) unveiled last week in Sacramento. (Earlier post.)
Signed by 25 biofuel company executives and CEOs, investor Vinod Khosla, and Dr. Frances H. Arnold, the letter notes that the biofuels industry generally supports indirect effects research, including its subset indirect land use change, but warns that enforcing indirect effects prematurely or in a piecemeal way would be catastrophic for advanced biofuel development.
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New Study Finds Atmospheric Levels of GHG NF3 At Least 4x Higher Than Previously Estimated
October 23, 2008
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| Measured and modeled atmospheric NF3 concentrations and trends from 1978 to 2008. Northern Hemisphere NF3 measurements are shown as filled circles, together with the spline curve Northern Hemisphere trend (solid line) fitted to these measurements. The modeled Southern Hemisphere trend and modeled global mean trend (dotted line) are shown as dashed and dotted lines, respectively. Southern Hemisphere measurements are plotted as filled squares. Click to enlarge. Source: Weiss (2008) |
Measuring background atmospheric abundances and trends of the greenhouse gas nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) for the first time, a team of researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego found that NF3 levels are at least four times higher than previously estimated.
The team, led by Scripps geochemistry professor Ray Weiss, found that the mean global tropospheric concentration of NF3 has risen quasi-exponentially from about 0.02 ppt (parts-per-trillion) at the beginning of their measured record in 1978, to a 1 July 2008 value of 0.454 ppt, with a rate of increase of 0.053 ppt yr-1, or about 11% per year. The research will be published 31 October in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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California ARB to Hold Public Meeting on Feebate Program for New Vehicle GHG Reduction
October 22, 2008
The California Air Resources Board (ARB) is holding a public consultation meeting to discuss ARB’s proposed research contract titled “Potential Design, Implementation, and Benefits of a Feebate Program for New Passenger Vehicles in California” at the CalEPA Headquarters Building, in Sacramento, California, 5 November.
As described in the Proposed Scoping Plan (earlier post), ARB is commissioning a study to analyze the implementation of feebates for new vehicles in California both in place of and in addition to the Pavley (AB1493, greenhouse gas emissions) standards. The study will assess elements of program design including fee and rebate levels, point of regulation, implementation strategy, consumer response, and interaction with other AB 32 programs.
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Study Finds That No-Till Can Increase N2O Emissions in Certain Soils, Offsetting CO2 Sink
Researchers at Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (Québec City) investigating the short-term impacts of a no-tillage practice in a heavy clay soil found that within the first five years of the practice, nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions could offset the soil carbon dioxide sink. N2O is a greenhouse gas with a global warming potential (GWP) of 280 on a 20-year time horizon, compared to the baseline CO2 GWP of 1. The N2O GWP increases to 310 on a 100-year time horizon, according to data from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC).
The practice of no-till has increased considerably during the past 20 years. The absence of tillage coupled with the accumulation of crop residues at the soil surface modifies several soil properties but also influences nitrogen dynamics. Soils under no-till usually host a more abundant and diverse biota and are less prone to erosion, water loss, and structural breakdown than tilled soils. Their organic matter content is also often increased. In addition, no-till is proposed as a measure to mitigate the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.
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EU-15 on Track to Meet 2012 Kyoto GHG Target, Despite Mixed Performances; 20% Reduction by 2020 Not Attainable Without Further Measures
October 19, 2008
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| EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions and projections for the Kyoto period 2008–2012. Click to enlarge. Source: EEA |
The EU-15 should meet its collective target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 8% for the period 2008–2012, according to a new report by the European Environment Agency (EEA). A large part of this decrease will come from emission reduction projects that EU countries will finance in other countries.
The report also gives a long-term estimate of the emissions situation in Europe. Although emissions are projected to continue decreasing until 2020 in the EU-27, the 20% reduction target compared to 1990, endorsed by European leaders in 2007, will remain out of reach without the implementation of additional measures, such as the EU energy and climate change package proposed by the European Commission in January 2008, according to the report.
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Study Finds That Aggressive Combination of Land Use, Enhanced Transit and Travel Pricing Show a Median 14.5% Reduction in Vehicle Kilometers Traveled for 10 Year Time Horizon
October 17, 2008
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| Box plots of combined policy VKT reductions by time horizon. Click to enlarge. Source: Rodier (2008) |
A review of modeling literature on land use, transit and auto pricing policies designed to reduce vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) found that an aggressive combination of land-use, enhanced transit, and pricing policies compared to a business-as-usual scenario can reduce VKT for a ten-year time horizon by a median 14.5%. Over a 40-year time horizon, the median decrease is 24.1%.
In the study, Dr. Caroline Rodier at UC Berkeley’s Transportation Sustainability Research Center reviewed more than 20 modeling studies from California, other states and Europe. The California Air Resources Board references the study in its Proposed Scoping Plan for greenhouse gas reductions. (Earlier post.)
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California Air Resources Board Releases Proposed Scoping Plan for GHG Reductions; Increasing Importance of Land Use and Regional Transit Policies
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| Potential impacts of land-use and transit strategies on greenhouse gas emissions in California. Click to enlarge. Source: ARB, Rodier (2008) |
The California Air Resources Board (ARB) released its proposed Scoping Plan to reduce California’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. In June, ARB had released a discussion draft version. (Earlier post.) The final proposed plan released reflects additional analysis, and public input that ARB has received over the past several months. The plan is slated to go before the Board for approval at its December meeting.
Development of the Scoping Plan is a central requirement of AB 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006. In 2007, ARB established a 2020 GHG target of 427 MMTCO2e, requiring a reduction of 169 MMTCO2e—approximately 30%—from the state’s projected 2020 of 596 MMTCO2e in a business-as-usual scenario.
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UK Government Invests £100M in £200M Low Carbon Vehicle Program
October 14, 2008
The UK government is putting £100 million (US$175 million) into a new £200 million investment program, jointly funded by government and business, to speed up the introduction of new low carbon vehicles onto Britain’s roads.
The Low Carbon Vehicle Integrated Delivery Programme will co-ordinate the UK’s low carbon vehicle activity from initial strategic research through collaborative research and development, leading to the production of demonstration vehicles. The Technology Strategy Board will manage the five-year program through its Low Carbon Vehicles Innovation Platform, and it will be guided by an industry-led advisory panel.
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California ARB Posts Draft Regulation for Low Carbon Fuel Standard
October 11, 2008
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| Proposed compliance schedule for gasoline and diesel fuels and substitutes. Click to enlarge. |
The staff of the California Air Resources Board has posted the Draft Regulation for the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) which contains the latest staff proposals on the regulatory approach following the March 2008 concept outline. (Earlier post.) ARB is seeking comments on this document, which will be discussed during the LCFS workshop on 16 October 2008, in Sacramento, California.
The draft LCFS maps out a 10.5% reduction in carbon intensity for gasoline or fuels used to substitute for gasoline from 2010 to 2020 (from 96.7 gCO2e/MJ to 86.5 gCO2e/MJ) and a 10% reduction in the carbon intensity of diesel or diesel substitutes (from 95.8 gCO2e/MJ to 86.2 gCO2e/MJ).
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European Automakers to Seek €40 Billion in Loans from EC
October 06, 2008
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| Sales of personal cars are on the decline in Europe. Click to enlarge. Source: ACEA |
European automakers will approach to European Commission (EC) seeking €40 billion in loans (US$54 billion) to support their shift to lower GHG-emitting vehicles, according to Fiat CEO and former ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers Association) president Sergio Marchionne, in interviews given to several financial newspapers at the Paris Motor Show.
The request mirrors the new program of US$25 billion in loans from the US government to domestic automakers and suppliers for retooling factories to produces more fuel-efficient vehicles. (Earlier post.)
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Australia Seeks Public Discussion of Measures to Encourage the Adoption of More Fuel-Efficient Vehicles
September 30, 2008
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| Projected average CO2 emissions of the Australian LDV fleet under a range of CO2 targets. Fleet-wide improvements take a long time even with aggressive new vehicle targets. Click to enlarge. |
The Australian Transport Council and the Environment Protection and Heritage Council (EPHC) Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Working Group, with support from the Australian Government, have released a public discussion paper on potential measures to increase the adoption of more fuel-efficient, low-carbon emission vehicles.
Among the measures considered are a CO2 emissions standard for new vehicles; standards for non-engine components; and feebate programs. Closing date for public comments is 7 November 2008.
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Carbon Sciences Developing Technology to Convert CO2 to Fuel
September 26, 2008
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| Carbon Sciences is developing a biocatalytic process to convert CO2 to low-carbon hydrocarbons. Click to enlarge. |
Carbon Sciences, Inc., the developer of a CO2-to-carbonate technology that converts the gas into precipitated calcium carbonate (PCC) for use in the production of paper, pharmaceuticals and plastics, is developing a process to transform CO2 into low-carbon hydrocarbons (C1 to C3) for subsequent upgrading into higher-carbon fuels such as gasoline and jet fuel.
Conventional processes for the conversion of CO2 to fuel include direct photolysis which uses light energy to break off the oxygen atoms in CO2; and chemically reacting CO2 with hydrogen to create methane or methanol. These processes require large amounts of energy due to high pressure and high temperature chemical processes, says Carbon Sciences, which reduce their economic viability for creating transportation fuels on a large scale.
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Global CO2 Emissions up 38% Since 1992; More Than Half of Annual Emissions Now from Developing Countries
September 25, 2008
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| The shift in sources for global CO2 emissions. Click to enlarge. Source: CDIAC |
Annual carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels and manufacturing cement have grown 37.8% percent since 1992, from 6.1 billion tons of carbon to 8.5 billion tons in 2007, according to data gathered by the US Department of Energy’s Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Global emissions in 1992 (6.147 billion tons) were the lowest since the 1990 baseline year of the Kyoto protocol (6.164 billion tons).
At the same time, the source of emissions has shifted dramatically as energy use has been growing slowly in many developed countries but more quickly in some developing countries, most notably in rapidly developing Asian countries such as China and India, according to a CDIAC analysis of the data.
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European Parliament Environment Committee Holds Firm on 2012 CO2 Reduction Target for New Cars
The Environment Committee of the European Parliament today voted 46-19 to hold to an average target of 120g of carbon dioxide per kilometer from new passenger cars (the M1 category) by 2012. It also voted for a new long-term target of 95g CO2/km for 2020. The current level is around 160 g/km.
Of the 120 g/km target, 130 g/km is to be reached by improvements in vehicle motor technology. The further 10 g/km reduction is to be obtained by using other technical improvements such as better tires or the use of biofuels.
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Permafrost Organic Carbon Content Double Prior Estimates
September 14, 2008
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| Conceptual diagram of the effect of permafrost thawing on climate. Decomposition in oxic soils releases primarily CO2, whereas anoxic decomposition produces both CH4 and CO2, but at a lower total emission rate. Fire releases mostly CO2, but also some CH4. Click to enlarge. Credit: BioScience |
An international, three-year study involving collaboration between scientists from Australia, Russia, the US, the UK, Canada and Europe has estimated that the amount of frozen organic carbon locked away in the world’s permafrost regions—a major potential source of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)—is 1,672 petagrams (1,672 billion metric tons). This is more than double prior estimates of the world’s high-latitude carbon inventory, and more than twice the size of the current atmospheric carbon pool.
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New Zealand Passes Climate Change Emissions Trading Bill; Coverage of Liquid Fossil Fuels for Transportation Begins in 2011
September 11, 2008
New Zealand’s Parliament passed the Climate Change (Emissions Trading and Renewable Preference) Bill, thereby establishing the framework for the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS).
The emissions trading scheme will include liquid fossil fuels used in New Zealand transportation beginning in 2011, and cover gasoline, diesel, aviation gasoline, jet kerosene, light fuel oil, and heavy fuel oil. The transportation sector accounts for 19.2% of New Zealand’s CO2emissions.
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Assessing the Impact of Global Peak Oil on the Climate
September 10, 2008
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| Atmospheric carbon dioxide changes over time for the study’s five fossil fuel scenarios: business-as-usual (a), coal phase-out (b) and oil use and supply (c-e). Click to enlarge. Credit: NASA/Kharecha and Hansen |
A new paper by Pushker Kharecha and James Hansen at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute shows that if proven conventional oil and gas reserves do not greatly exceed estimates of the Energy Information Administration—i.e., if conventional production peaks during the next few decades—it will be feasible to keep atmospheric CO2 from exceeding about 450 ppm by 2100, provided that emissions from coal, unconventional fossil fuels, and land use are constrained. Their paper was published 5 August in the American Geophysical Union’s journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles.
Although a limit of 450 ppm CO2 is one of the more ambitious emissions targets proposed by governments and corporations, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that even at that limit, there is a 20% likelihood that global temperatures will increase by 3.5º C or more. In April, Hansen called for a global target of 350 ppm. (Earlier post.)
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Transportation Scenarios for Meeting California’s 80% GHG Reduction Target by 2050
September 08, 2008
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| None of the “Silver Bullet” scenarios explored by the UC Davis researchers achieve the 80in50 reduction goal, implying that no single technology can successfully meet California’s 80% emission reductions goal; a portfolio approach is necessary. Click to enlarge. |
A new study by researchers at the Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis analyzes mitigation options and presents future scenarios for meeting California’s ambitious greenhouse gas emission reductions goal (80% below 1990 levels by 2050, earlier post), focusing specifically on the transportation sector, including light-duty, heavy-duty, agricultural, off-road, rail, aircraft, and marine vehicles.
The report, 80in50 Scenarios for Deep Reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from California Transportation: Meeting an 80% Reduction Goal in 2050, concludes that such a deep reduction in GHG emissions from the California transportation sector is challenging but potentially feasible. While no one single mitigation option can meet the target by itself, the goal can be met in multiple ways, utilizing a combination of technological and behavioral options. The study focuses on three main areas: travel demand, fuel efficiency and fuel carbon intensity.
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Aerosols Can Either Increase or Decrease Rainfall Based on Local Environmental Conditions
September 07, 2008
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| Evolution of deep convective clouds developing in the pristine (top) and polluted (bottom) atmosphere. Click to enlarge. Source: AAAS |
An international team of scientists, headed by Prof. Daniel Rosenfeld of the Institute of Earth Sciences at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, has concluded that air pollution can either increase or decrease rainfall, depending on local environmental conditions. The determination of this issue is one with significant consequences in an era of climate change and specifically in areas suffering from manmade pollution and water shortages, including Israel, according to the researchers. A paper on the work appears in the 5 September issue of the journal Science.
Aerosols serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and thus have a substantial effect on cloud properties and the initiation of precipitation. Large concentrations of human-made aerosols have been reported to both decrease and increase rainfall as a result of their radiative and CCN activities. At one extreme, pristine tropical clouds with low CCN concentrations rain out too quickly to mature into long-lived clouds. On the other hand, heavily polluted clouds evaporate much of their water before precipitation can occur, if they can form at all given the reduced surface heating resulting from the aerosol haze layer.
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New Analysis Concludes Global Sea-Rise By 2100 Kinematically Limited to 2 Meters or Less
September 05, 2008
Despite projections by some scientists of global seas rising by 6 meters (20 feet) or more by the end of this century as a result of warming, a new study by researchers from the University of Colorado at Boulder; the University of Montana; and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, concludes that global sea rise of more than 2 meters (6.6 feet) is a near physical impossibility in that timeframe. A more plausible, but still accelerated level, is about 0.8 meter (2.6 feet). The paper is published in the 5 September edition of the journal Science.
The researchers made calculations using conservative, medium and extreme glaciological assumptions for sea rise expected from Greenland, Antarctica and the world’s smaller glaciers and ice caps—the three primary contributors to sea rise.
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Mayor of London Launches Climate Change Adaptation Strategy
August 31, 2008
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| Surface temperature of London at 21:30 on 7 August, 2003 showing the signature of the urban heat island during the killer heatwave. Click to enlarge. Source: NASA |
Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London, launched the London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy—one of the first comprehensive climate change adaptation strategies produced by any major city worldwide. The launch of the strategy comes weeks after the UK Government’s chief scientist advised that the UK needs to adapt to increased average global temperatures of four degrees Celsius.
Expected results of climate change for London include warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers, with more extreme weather (heatwaves, tidal surges and heavy rainfall) and rising sea levels. These changes will increase the risk of heatwaves, floods and droughts, which will affect the prosperity of the city and the quality of life of Londoners.
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French Government Declares Car Feebates System a Success
August 28, 2008
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| Basic parameters of France’s feebate system. Click to enlarge. |
French environment minister Jean-Louis Borloo declared a bonus/malus (“feebate”) system introduced to encourage car buyers to make greener purchase choices a success.
According to official figures, sales in France of vehicles consuming less than 130 g/km CO2 increased 45% increase in the eight months since the scheme was introduced. In that time, average CO2 emissions from new cars sold fell by 9% (8 g CO2/km). There was, however, a surge in purchases of 4x4s between the scheme’s announcement and its introduction.
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UNEP Report Urges Global Energy Subsidy Reform, Including Cutting Fossil Fuel Subsidies; Reductions in GHG Emissions and Increase in Global GDP
August 27, 2008
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| Economic value of energy subsidies in Non-OECD countries, 2005. Click to enlarge. Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006. |
Globally, approximately US$300 billion—0.7% of global GDP—is spent annually on energy subsidies. The bulk of this is being used to artificially lower or reduce the real price of fuels like oil, coal and gas or electricity generated from such fossil fuels.
A new report—Reforming Energy Subsidies: Opportunities to Contribute to the Climate Change Agenda—by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) calls for the elimination of these environmentally harmful subsidies and major reform in three main areas: (1) Reporting and compiling consistent data on energy subsidies as well as analyzing their effects (transparency and accountability); (2) enhancing mechanisms of communication with policymakers to show them the need for and benefits of reforming subsidies as well as to assist them in implementing policy reforms at the national level; and (3) capacity building for government officials and other stakeholders from both developed and developing countries, and assistance in reforming subsidies.