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[Due to the increasing size of the archives, each topic page now contains only the prior 365 days of content. Access to older stories is now solely through the Monthly Archive pages or the site search function.]
Researchers Find that CO2 Forcing Alone Doesn’t Explain Magnitude of Ancient Global Warming Episode
July 15, 2009
By analyzing data from deep-sea sediment cores to study an ancient global warming episode (the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, PETM), researchers found a less-than two-fold increase (70%) in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels corresponding to the 5–9 °C (9-16 °F) warming of the PETM. Based on current knowledge and models of the Earth’s climate system, they had expected to find a three- to eight-fold increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to drive that amount of warming.
In a paper published online in the journal Nature Geoscience, the team, led by Richard Zeebe of the University of Hawai‘i at Manoa’s School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, suggests that in addition to direct CO2 forcing, other processes and/or feedbacks that are hitherto unknown must have caused a substantial portion of the warming during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum.
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New Molecule Could Lead to New CO2 Capture Methods
| An unusual bowl-shaped molecule that pulls carbon dioxide out of the air may provide new possibilities for dealing with global warming. The CO3-2 group is shown in the center. Credit: ACS. Click to enlarge. |
The accidental discovery of a bowl-shaped molecule that pulls carbon dioxide out of the air suggests new possibilities for dealing with global warming, including genetically engineering microbes to manufacture those CO2 “catchers,” according to a report scheduled for the 3 August issue of the ACS journal Inorganic Chemistry.
J. A. Tossell of the University of Maryland notes in the new study that other researchers (Brooks 2006) discovered the molecule—a macrocyclic amidourea—while doing work unrelated to global climate change.
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UK Publishes Strategy for Low Carbon Transport
The UK’s Department for Transport has published a strategy designed to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide from the transport sector by around 14% (17.7 million tonnes) by 2020 compared to 2008.
The document, entitled “Low carbon transport: a greener future”, also frames the debate for a longer-term decarbonization of transport to give people and businesses more low-carbon choices about when, where and how to travel or transport goods. Transport currently makes up 21% of all UK domestic carbon emissions. The Carbon Reduction Strategy for Transport is based on three main themes:
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New NASA Satellite Survey Reveals Dramatic Arctic Sea Ice Thinning
July 08, 2009
| ICESat measurements of winter multi-year ice cover in the Arctic Ocean between 2004 and 2008, along with the corresponding downward trend in overall winter sea ice volume, and switch in dominant ice type from multi-year ice to first-year ice. Credit: Ron Kwok, NASA/JPL. Click to enlarge. |
Arctic sea ice thinned dramatically between the winters of 2004 and 2008, with thin seasonal ice replacing thick older ice as the dominant type for the first time on record. The new results, based on data from a NASA Earth-orbiting spacecraft, provide further evidence for the rapid, ongoing transformation of the Arctic’s ice cover.
Scientists from NASA and the University of Washington in Seattle conducted the most comprehensive survey to date using observations from NASA’s Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) to make the first basin-wide estimate of the thickness and volume of the Arctic Ocean’s ice cover. Ron Kwok of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., led the research team, which published its findings July 7 in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans.
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Study Finds Carbon in Frozen Soils 2X Prior Estimates; Permafrost Melt Poses Major Climate Change Threat
July 01, 2009
| Carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost region. Source: CSIRO. Click to enlarge. |
New research shows that the amount of carbon stored in frozen soils in the Arctic and boreal regions of the world is more than double previous estimates and could, if emitted as carbon dioxide and methane, lead to a significant increase in global temperatures by the end of this century. The new estimate is more than 1.5 trillion tons of frozen carbon, about twice as much carbon as contained in the atmosphere.
In a paper published in the latest edition of the AGU journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles, an international team of researchers from the US, Australia, Canada, Sweden and Russia say that the frozen high-latitude soils have the potential to release vast quantities of carbon and methane into the atmosphere and subsequently influence carbon-climate feedbacks.
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EPA Grants California Vehicle GHG Regulations Waiver
June 30, 2009
The US Environmental Agency (EPA) has granted California’s waiver request enabling the state to enforce its greenhouse gas emissions standards (Pavley I) for new motor vehicles, beginning with the current model year. According to evidence submitted by California during the waiver process, an EPA official said, automakers are currently already in compliance with the MY2009 Pavley requirement, and are tracking to compliance for 2010.
In September 2004 the California Air Resources Board (ARB) passed regulations to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) from new passenger vehicles starting in 2009. These regulations were authorized by the 2002 legislation Assembly Bill 1493 (Pavley). California requested from EPA the waiver required for implementation of the Pavley regulations in December 2005. The request was subsequently denied in December 2007.
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DoD Researchers Work to Increase the Production of Higher Chain Hydrocarbons from CO2 Using a Traditional Fischer-Tropsch Catalyst
June 27, 2009
Researchers at the US Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the Center for Applied Energy Research at the University of Kentucky are investigating the hydrogenation of CO2 using a conventional Fischer-Tropsch cobalt catalyst for the production of valuable hydrocarbon materials.
Other studies have shown the ability to convert CO2 primarily to methane with a distribution of other hydrocarbons (earlier post as one example). The focus of this work, reported online 25 June in the ACS journal Energy & Fuels, is to attempt to improve the production distribution toward higher chain hydrocarbons (HCs) and increase conversion rates using conventional Fischer-Tropsch catalysts (Co-Pt/Al2O3).
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Annual Increase in Global CO2 Emissions Halved in 2008; Decrease in Fossil Oil Consumption, Increase in Renewables Share
June 26, 2009
| Global CO2 emissions from fuel use and cement production by region. Source: PBL. Click to enlarge. |
Very high oil prices up to the summer of 2008, together with a worldwide financial crisis have caused a halving of the annual increase in global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from consumption of oil, coal and gas, and from cement production, according to preliminary estimates by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), using recently published energy data from BP.
Emissions increased by 1.7% in 2008, against 3.3% in 2007. Since 2002, the average annual increase was almost 4%. In addition to high oil prices and the financial crisis, the increased use of new renewable energy sources, such as biofuels for road transport and wind energy for electricity generation, had a noticeable and mitigating impact on CO2 emissions.
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California Adopts Cooler Cars Regulation
| Infrared reflective glass is the more efficient—and costly—technology for reducing vehicle cabin temperature. Click to enlarge. |
The California Air Resources Board adopted a regulation that will require new cars sold in California starting in 2012 to have windows that reflect or absorb heat-producing rays from the sun. This will help keep cars cooler, increase their fuel efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Cooler cars mean less air conditioning thereby increasing fuel efficiency and preventing about 700,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide from entering the atmosphere in 2020—roughly the equivalent of taking 140,000 cars off the road for a year.
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Study: Hydrofluorocarbons Will Contribute Significantly to Global Warming by 2050
June 23, 2009
| Global ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and HFC emissions (A), global CO2 and HFC emissions (B), and ODS, HFC, and CO2 global RF (C) for the period 2000–2050. Velders et al. (2009) Click to enlarge. |
The contribution of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) to global warming by 2050 will be more than that of current global CO2 emissions from houses and office buildings, according to a study by team of scientists from a the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), DuPont Fluoroproducts, and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
These HFCs, gases used in refrigerators and air conditioners, are substitutes for ozone-depleting gases, but they are also strong greenhouse gases. Their contribution to global warming is currently small, but can increase to the equivalent of 9-19% (CO2-eq. basis) of projected global CO2 emissions in business-as-usual scenarios by 2050. This percentage increases to 28–45% compared with projected CO2 emissions in a 450-ppm CO2 stabilization scenario.
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Proposed US Transportation Reauthorization Plan Links Greenhouse Gas Reductions to Transportation Planning
June 21, 2009
Among the proposals in the new US highway and transportation funding reauthorization bill, outlined by House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure Chairman James L. Oberstar (D-Minn.) and Ranking Member John L. Mica (R-Fla.) in a press conference last week, is the linkage of transportation planning with greenhouse gas emissions reductions. If enacted, this would transform the current transportation planning process in the US.
As described in a summary of the proposed bill published by the Committee, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in consultation with the Department of Transportation (DOT), would establish national transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals.
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US Global Change Research Program Issues Report on Impacts of Climate Change in US; Details Point to Potential Value of Early, Aggressive Action
June 17, 2009
| Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now in the US and are expected to increase. Source: USGCRP. Click to enlarge. |
Climate change is already having visible impacts in the United States, and the choices we make now will determine the severity of its impacts in the future, according to the final release of the report “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States”. A product of the interagency US Global Change Research Program, the 190-page report was commissioned in 2007 and completed this spring.
Produced by a consortium of experts from 13 US government science agencies and from several major universities and research institutes, many of whom are also involved in the UN IPCC process, the report compiles years of scientific research and incorporates new data not available during the preparation of previous large national and global assessments.
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Researchers Predict Permafrost Thaw Will Intensify Climate Change More Quickly Than Previously Thought; Melting of Greenland Icesheet Could Drive More Water Than Previously Thought to North American Northeast
May 28, 2009
| As areas with permafrost thaw and more old carbon is released, the carbon balance changes. Credit: Zina Deretsky, National Science Foundation. Click to enlarge. |
Permafrost thaw will make potentially significant contributions to atmospheric concentrations of carbon more rapidly that previously thought, according to a new study published in the 28 May issue of the journal Nature.
A separate study led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), which is being published 29 May in Geophysical Research Letters, concluded that the melting of the Greenland ice sheet this century may drive more water than previously thought toward the already threatened coastlines of New York, Boston, Halifax, and other cities in the northeastern United States and Canada.
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US EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 44% Between 2006 and 2030, CO2 Emissions Up by 39%
May 27, 2009
| Projected growth in world carbon dioxide emissions. Source: IEO2009. Click to enlarge. |
World marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 44% between 2006 and 2030, driven by strong long-term economic growth in the developing nations of the world, according to the reference case projection from the International Energy Outlook 2009 (IEO2009) released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
World carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 29.0 billion metric tons in 2006 to 33.1 billion metric tons in 2015 and 40.4 billion metric tons in 2030—an increase of 39% over the projection period. The IEO2009 reference case does not include specific policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions
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Washington Governor Issues Executive Order Directing State Actions to Reduce Greenhouse Gases; Consideration of California Low Carbon Fuel Standard and Highway Electrification
May 24, 2009
Washington Gov. Chris Gregoire issued an executive order directing a variety of state actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions including continued participation in the Western Climate Initiative to develop a regional greenhouse has emissions reduction program; an increase in transportation and fuel-conservation options including a low-carbon fuel standard; and the pursuit of the electrification of the interstate highway and associated metro centers.
Gregoire issued her executive order, entitled “Washington’s Leadership on Climate Change,” after testifying at the US Environmental Protection Agency’s public hearing in Seattle on the regulation of greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. The order contains a number of directives specifically for the Department of Ecology and the Department of Transportation.
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US Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Declined by 2.8% in 2008; Transportation-Related Emissions Down 5.2%
May 20, 2009
| Energy-related CO2 emissions declined by 2.8% in 2008. Source: EIA. Click to enlarge. |
US carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels decreased by 2.8% in 2008 to 5,802 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (MMTCO2), down from 5,967 MMTCO2 in 2007, according to preliminary estimates released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This is the largest annual decline in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions since EIA began annual reporting on greenhouse gas emissions.
Transportation-related emissions, which account for about a third of total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, decreased by 5.2% in 2008. Since 1990 the next largest yearly decline in the transportation sector was 1.3% in 1991. Only one other year in the 1990 to 2008 time period experienced a decline: 1.2% in 2001.
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Stanford Professor Urges EPA to Include Black Carbon in Endangerment Finding
May 18, 2009
In testimony for the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) public hearing (earlier post) on the proposed endangerment finding for greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act (earlier post), Stanford Professor Mark Jacobson urged the EPA to include black carbon in the finding.
Black carbon—soot—is a global-warming agent the immediate control of which will slow the demise of Arctic sea ice faster than will control of any other global-warming agent, Jacobson said. Jacobson first showed in 2000 that black carbon was the second-leading cause of global warming after carbon dioxide in terms of radiative forcing and, in 2002, that its control was the most effective method of slowing warming. In 2007, Jacobson and four colleagues testified in the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform on the role of black carbon. (Earlier post.)
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GM Quantifies CO2 and Fuel Consumption Reductions Via E-REVs And PHEVs, As Compared To “Conventional” Hybrids
May 16, 2009
by Jack Rosebro
| Energy sources, paths, storage media, and propulsion systems available or in development. “FCEV” refers to all fuel cell vehicles, including E-REVs and fuel cell hybrids. Adapted from Tate et al. (2009). Click to enlarge. |
General Motors has released a white paper that evaluates the CO2 reduction potential of extended-range electric vehicles (E-REVs) as well as plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), in combination with multiple vehicle charging scenarios, as compared to conventional hybrids. The paper was presented by authors Ed Tate and Peter Savagian at last month’s SAE 2009 World Congress in Detroit.
In the paper, the GM team broke down CO2 and fuel consumption reduction potentials into several categories:
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Study Finds Bioelectricity Better Option Than Liquid Biofuels for Transportation Output and GHG Emissions
May 08, 2009
| Kilometers per crop hectare for switchgrass feedstock with a small SUV. Campbell et al. (2009) Click to enlarge. |
A new life cycle assessment comparing the performance of bioelectricity and ethanol from a variety of pathways with respect to transportation kilometers and GHG offsets achieved per unit area of biofuels cropland concludes that bioelectricity used to charge a battery electric vehicle outperforms ethanol for a combustion engine across a range of feedstocks, conversion technologies, and vehicle classes.
The study by University of California, Merced, Assistant Professor Elliott Campbell along with Christopher Field of the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology and David Lobell of Stanford University, found that bioelectricity produces an average 81% more transportation kilometers and 108% more emissions offsets per unit area cropland than cellulosic ethanol. A paper on the work appeared in the 8 May issue of the journal Science.
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Study Finds That Plankton Blooms Do Not Send Atmospheric Carbon to the Deep Ocean; Weakens Iron Fertilization as Geo-Engineering Approach
May 07, 2009
| Bishop and Wood with a recent version of the Carbon Explorer float. Photo: Roy Kaltschmidt, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Click to enlarge. |
Oceanographers Jim Bishop and Todd Wood of the US Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory have measured the fate of carbon particles originating in plankton blooms in the Southern Ocean, using data that deep-diving Carbon Explorer floats collected around the clock for well over a year. Their study reveals that most of the carbon from lush plankton blooms never reaches the deep ocean.
The results weaken the applicability of the simplest version of the Iron Hypothesis as a geo-engineering approach to climate change. Iron Hypothesis adherents suggest global warming can be slowed or even reversed by fertilizing plankton with iron in regions that are iron-poor but rich in other nutrients like nitrogen, silicon, and phosphorus. The Southern Ocean is one of the most important such regions.
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EPA Proposes New Regulations for Renewable Fuel Standard to Implement Requirements of EISA; GHG Reduction and Indirect Land Use Change Effects Included
May 05, 2009
| Example of results from EPA lifecycle analyses in the NPRM. Emissions for select fuel pathways for the two time horizon/discount rate approaches. (See below.) Click to enlarge. |
The US Environmental Protection Agency released its expected Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) detailing the implementation of changes to the existing Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS1) as required by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA). The proposed rulemaking for RFS2 establishes new specific volume standards for cellulosic biofuel, biomass-based diesel, advanced biofuel, and total renewable fuel that must be used in transportation fuel each year. (Earlier post.)
The revised statutory requirements for RFS2 also include new definitions and criteria for both renewable fuels and the feedstocks used to produce them, including new greenhouse gas emission (GHG) thresholds for renewable fuels and the incorporation of indirect land use change effects.
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Study Concludes That to Limit Global Warming to 2 °C, Less Than 25% of Proven Fossil Fuel Reserves Can be Burnt Between Now and 2050
April 29, 2009
| The theme of the current issue of Nature is that the climate situation may be even worse than you think. |
Less than a quarter of the proven fossil fuel reserves can be burnt and emitted between now and 2050, if global warming is to be limited to two degrees Celsius (2 °C), according to a new study published in the journal Nature today. This issue of Nature—themed “The Coming Climate Crunch”—features a number of related papers and commentary on greenhouse gas emissions and the difficulty of cutting back, as well as an editorial calling on commitment from “the highest levels” to make the needed changes.
The study, led by Malte Meinshausen at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), calculated how much greenhouse gas emissions can be pumped into the atmosphere between now and 2050 to have a reasonable chance of keeping warming lower than 2 °C (above pre-industrial levels)—a goal supported by more than 100 countries to prevent dangerous climate change.
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ADB Study Finds Annual Economic Losses in Southeast Asia from Climate Change Could be More Than Twice the Global Average
April 27, 2009
Southeast Asia, one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate change—due to its long coastlines, high concentration of population and economic activity in coastal areas, and heavy reliance on agriculture, natural resources, and forestry—is likely to suffer more from climate change than the global average, according to a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) study, titled The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review.
The mean cost of cost of climate change for the four countries—Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam—under a “business-as-usual” scenario and if market and non-market impacts and catastrophic risks are all considered could be equivalent to losing 6.7% of combined gross domestic product (GDP) each year by 2100, more than twice the projected global average loss.
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California Adopts Low Carbon Fuel Standard, with Indirect Land Use Change Effects for Biofuels
April 24, 2009
| The LCFS is an important component in California’s effort to reduce transportation GHG. Source: ARB. Click to enlarge. |
At its meeting on Thursday, the California Air Resources Board adopted a regulation that will implement Governor Schwarzenegger’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (earlier post) calling for at least a 10% reduction from 2006 levels in the carbon intensity (measured in gCO2e/MJ) of California’s transportation fuels by 2020. When fully implemented, ARB projects that this regulation will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by about 15 million metric tons a year (CO2 equivalent).
The regulation also levies the calculation of Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) effects against biofuels, against the opposition (earlier post) of the biofuels industry.
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CO2 and Methane Emissions Continued Rise in 2008 Despite Economic Slump
| Anthropogenic atmospheric CO2, fossil fuel emissions, world GDP, and world population for the past century. CO2 data from Antarctic ice cores (green points), Mauna Loa Observatory (red curve), and the global network (blue dots). Credit: NOAA. Click to enlarge. |
Emissions of two of the most important climate change gases increased last year, according to a preliminary analysis for NOAA’s annual greenhouse gas index, which tracks data from 60 sites around the world.
Researchers measured an additional 16.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2)—a byproduct of fossil fuel burning—and 12.2 million tons of methane in the atmosphere at the end of December 2008. This increase is despite the global economic downturn, with its decrease in a wide range of activities that depend on fossil fuel use.
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California Energy Commission Adopts $176M Green Transportation Plan
April 23, 2009
The California Energy Commission has adopted the state’s first transportation Investment Plan. The Alternative and Renewable Fuels and Vehicle Technology Program’s Investment Plan allocates $176 million over the next two years to stimulate green transportation projects and encourage innovation to help meet the state’s aggressive climate change policies.
The Alternative and Renewable Fuels Vehicle Technology Program was established by Assembly Bill 118 (Núñez, Chapter 750, Statutes of 2007) and is an essential element of the California's climate change and energy policies. The state is aggressively working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, decrease petroleum fuel use to 15% below 2003 levels by 2020, and increase alternative fuel use to 20% by 2020.
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Water Levels Dropping in Some of the World’s Major Rivers
April 22, 2009
| The change in runoff inferred from streamflow records worldwide between 1948 and 2004, with bluish colors indicating more streamflow and reddish colors less. The white land areas indicate inland-draining basins or regions for which there are insufficient data to determine the runoff trends. (Graphic courtesy Journal of Climate, modified by UCAR.) Click to enlarge. |
Rivers in some of the world’s most populous regions are losing water, according to a comprehensive study of global stream flows. The research, led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo., suggests that the reduced flows in many cases are associated with climate change, and could potentially threaten future supplies of food and water.
The results will be published 15 May in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate. The research was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF), NCAR’s sponsor.
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Group of Scientists and Economists Urge Inclusion of Indirect Land Use Change Effects for Biofuels and All Transportation Fuels in California LCFS
April 21, 2009
More than 170 scientists and economists have sent a letter to California Air Resources Board (ARB) Chairman Mary Nichols urging the board to account for greenhouse gas emissions from indirect land use change for biofuels and all other transportation fuels under the state’s proposed low carbon fuel standard (LCFS). The signatories include nine members of the National Academies of Science and two Nobel laureates.
During its meeting on 23-24 April, the Board will consider the adoption of the LCFS, which requires a 10% reduction in the carbon intensity (measured in gCO2e/MJ) of transportation fuels in California by 2020.
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Study: Increasing CO2 and Decreasing O2 Will Result in Significant Expansion of Oceanic Dead Zones, With “Severe Effects” on Marine Animals
April 18, 2009
New calculations made by marine chemists from the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI) suggest that low-oxygen “dead zones” in the ocean will expand significantly over the next century, with severe effects on marine animals.
Concentrations of carbon dioxide are increasing rapidly in the Earth’s atmosphere, primarily because of human activities. About one third of the carbon dioxide that humans produce by burning fossil fuels is being absorbed by the world’s oceans, gradually causing seawater to become more acidic. However, such ocean acidification is not the only way that carbon dioxide can harm marine animals.
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EPA Issues Proposed Endangerment Finding for Greenhouse Gases; Proposed Cause or Contribute Finding Identifies Motor Vehicles as Contributing Source
April 17, 2009
After a thorough scientific review ordered in 2007 by the US Supreme Court, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a proposal with two distinct findings regarding greenhouse gases. (Earlier post.) The endangerment finding proposes that the current and projected concentrations of the mix of six key greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)—in the atmosphere threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations. The issuance of an endangerment finding enables the regulation of greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act.
The proposed cause or contribute finding concludes that that the combined emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and HFCs from new motor vehicles and motor vehicle engines contribute to the atmospheric concentrations of these key greenhouse gases and hence to the threat of climate change. Combined with the endangerment finding, this enables the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles under the Clean Air Act.
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UK Government Launches £250M 5-Year Plan for Cutting CO2 from Road Transport; Includes Incentives for Purchase of PHEVs and EVs
April 16, 2009
| High-level technology roadmap for the UK’s decarbonization of road transport. Click to enlarge. |
The UK Transport and Business Secretaries launched the Government’s vision for cutting carbon from road transport over the next five years. Central to the £250-million (US$373-million) strategy is a consumer incentive initiative for plug-in vehicles worth £2,000 - £5,000 (US$3,000 - US$7,500) towards buying the first electric and plug-in hybrid cars when they hit the showrooms, expected to be from 2011 onwards.
The strategy also includes plans to provide £20 million (US$30 million) for charging points and related infrastructure to help develop a network of “electric car cities” throughout the UK and an expansion of an electric and ultra-low carbon car demonstration project on the UK’s roads. The demonstration project will involve more than 200 motorists throughout the country.
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Researchers Develop Process for Conversion of CO2 to Methanol Under Mild Conditions
| IBN researchers demonstrated their CO2 reduction process with dry air from a balloon, as well as a compressed air supply. Click to enlarge. |
Researchers at Singapore’s Institute of Bioengineering and Nanotechnology (IBN) have developed a catalytic process for the conversion of CO2 to methanol under mild conditions (room temperature). A paper on the work was published in the 20 April issue of the journal Angewandte Chemie International Edition, where it was designated a “Hot Paper.”
The IBN researchers, led by Dr. Yugen Zhang, reduced CO2 with silane using a stable N-hetereocyclic carbene (NHC) organocatalyst. The organocatalyst is more efficient and stable, even in the presence of oxygen, than transition-metal catalysts for this reaction, the researchers found. As a result, the CO2 reduction action can take place under mild conditions in dry air.
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Black Carbon Reduces Springtime Eurasian Snow Cover Almost as Much as CO2
April 11, 2009
In another study highlighting the role of black carbon particles in global warming (earlier post), a team of researchers has found that emissions from black carbon (BC) and organic matter (OM) drive springtime (March-May) melting in Eurasia nearly as much (95%) as anthropogenic CO2. The study was published in 7 April in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Eurasia includes the Hindu-Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau, which is the headwaters for most of the major rivers in Asia.
The study by researchers from the National Center for Atmospheric Research; University of California, Irvine; Cornell University; University of Utah; and Scripps Institute of Oceanography, University of California-San Diego, also found that 21 out of 22 climate models that contributed to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report underpredicted the rapid observed warming in this area of .64 °C since 1979.
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Study Finds That CO2 Standards for Vehicles Can Reduce Price of Oil
April 10, 2009
| Car fleet composition in the EU under the different scenarios. Click to enlarge. |
A new study by the French institute Enerdata, commissioned by the European Federation for Transport & Environment (T&E), suggests that the European CO2 standards for new vehicles due to come into effect in 2012 will lead not only to a European savings on oil (mainly via lower oil import volumes) but also to slightly lower global oil prices. Enerdata concluded that a 0.9% reduction in global oil consumption results in a drop in global oil prices of 1.2%.
Most analyses of the economic assessments of energy efficiency measures normally use fixed oil prices when accounting for economic benefits. By working out that the price of oil will fall when the EU’s regulations fully take effect, the study suggests that the European economic benefits of fuel efficiency have been underestimated, in general by up to 17%, according to T&E.
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Manitoba Vehicle Standards Advisory Board Recommends Adopting California GHG Vehicle Standards and Supporting Complementary Programs
April 07, 2009
The Manitoba, Canada Vehicle Standards Advisory Board has recommended that the province adopt the California Pavley standards for regulating greenhouse gas emissions from passenger vehicles, albeit as a deferred recommendation bounded by several contingencies and factoring in the small size of the Manitoba market (2.8% and 0.26% of the Canadian and North American new car market respectively).
In its report, Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Passenger Vehicles in Manitoba, the Advisory Board also recommends a number of complementary programs and measures focused on consumers as well as the existing fleet of light-duty vehicles.
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All Western European Countries Will Have CO2-Related Car Taxation This Year; European Auto Industry Urges Harmonization of Schemes
The number of EU countries with CO2-related car taxation rose to 15 in 2008. With Germany set to introduce CO2-related taxation in July of 2009, all Western European countries levy passenger car taxes that are partially or totally based on the car’s carbon dioxide emissions and/or fuel consumption, completing a trend that peaked in 2007 and 2008, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’s Association’s (ACEA) Tax Guide 2008 published this week.
Romania was the first and so far only Eastern European Member State to introduce CO2-related taxation last year as part of a more comprehensive overhaul of vehicle taxation in the country. In most Central and Eastern European countries, the main concern of policy makers remains to reduce the level of old vehicles on the streets with pollutant emission standards of below Euro 3.
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McKinsey Report Finds 47% Reduction in Global Automotive Emissions Feasible by 2030; Timely Action By All Stakeholders Required
April 06, 2009
| Global passenger vehicle CO2 emissions and abatement potential under three primary scenarios. Source: McKinsey. Click to enlarge. |
A new study by management consultants McKinsey & Company estimates that an integrated approach to carbon abatement in the automotive sector, much of it using proven technologies, could reduce global passenger vehicle greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 by 47% (2.2 gigatons) relative to a ‘do nothing’ scenario, even in the context of ongoing growth in the global vehicle parc.
Without action, carbon emissions from the use of passenger vehicles are projected to increase by 54% (1.8 gigatons) between 2006 and 2030, fueled by a growing number of cars on the road (from 730 million to 1.3 billion).
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EEA Report: Trends in European Transport Are Heading in the Wrong Direction
April 05, 2009
| Indexed European transport sector greenhouse gas emissions, 1990-2006. Source: EEA. Click to enlarge. |
Transport continues to contribute disproportionally to Europe’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, poor air quality and noise, and still uses the least efficient modes to move people and goods according to a new report from the European Environmental Agency (EEA).
Emissions of GHG have increased by 26% (EU-15) or 180 million tonnes between 1990 and 2006, excluding international aviation and marine transport—an amount larger than the entire annual national emissions for 2006 from Belgium (132 million tonnes) or Romania (157 million tonnes).
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SCOPE Biofuels Project Releases Assessment on Environmental Effects of Biofuel Technologies
April 03, 2009
The SCOPE (Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment) International Biofuels Project, has published the full proceedings of its Rapid Assessment workshop on the environmental effects of biofuel technologies, 22-25 September 2008. SCOPE is part of the International Council for Science.
While noting that most recent studies based on lifecycle analysis show that even first generation biofuels can result in “a substantial reduction” in net greenhouse gas emissions (80% to greater than 100% for sugarcane ethanol, 30% to 50% for corn ethanol), papers in the study express concerns over what they contend are potentially undercalculated N2O greenhouse gas effects; the exacerbation of hypoxia from run-off; the need for inclusion of indirect land use effects in greenhouse gas assessments; water use and quality; and other environmental and social effects.
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Government of Canada to Regulate Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Vehicles; Prefers Harmonized North American Standard
April 02, 2009
The Government of Canada will introduce new regulations to limit greenhouse gas emissions from the automotive sector under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999 (CEPA). Environment Minister Jim Prentice made the announcement on Wednesday.
In keeping with the Government of Canada’s commitment to put these regulations in place for 2011 model year vehicles, the Government will proceed immediately to put regulations in place under CEPA. By taking this approach, the Government of Canada will have the flexibility to harmonize its regulations with the broad range of possible future actions from the US government to address greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, the Minister said.
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Study Highlights the Importance of Considering Climate Effects of Non-CO2 Emissions from Transport in Mitigation Strategies and Policies
| Radiative forcing from the global and US ORT and PG sectors. The CO2 radiative forcing shown is for the 20-year time horizon. The sum of total non-CO2 and CO2 forcing is indicated above each bar. Unger et al. (2009). Click to enlarge. |
The radiative forcing affects of a reduction in non-CO2 pollutants (dominated by ozone and black carbon) can outweigh CO2 effects, depending on the replacement energy source, according to a multi-pollutant study by researchers from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Environmental Defense Fund that examined the impact of a 50% reduction in on-road transportation emissions. The study by Nadine Unger, Drew Shindell and James Wang will appear in an upcoming issue of the journal Atmospheric Environment.
The on-road transportation (ORT) and power generation (PG) sectors are major contributors to CO2 emissions and a host of short-lived radiatively-active air pollutants, including tropospheric ozone and fine aerosol particles, that exert complex influences on global climate. However, most assessments of possible energy change options—including studies of the impacts of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)—to date have neglected non-CO2 air pollutant impacts on radiative forcing, according to the authors.
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House Chairmen Waxman, Markey Release Draft of Energy and Climate Legislation; Among the Many Provisions Are Cap-and-Trade, Harmonization of CAFE and California Vehicle Regulations, and Low Carbon Fuel Standard
April 01, 2009
Chairman Henry A. Waxman of the Energy and Commerce Committee and Chairman Edward J. Markey of the Energy and Environment Subcommittee on Tuesday released a draft of far-reaching energy and climate legislation that targets job creation, promotes renewables and energy efficiency, and places limits on emissions of greenhouse gases. The bill also establishes an interagency council to ensure an integrated federal response to adapting to the effects of global warming.
Among the direct transportation-related provisions in the extensive package are a low-carbon fuel standard for all transportation fuels; financial support for large scale demonstrations of electric vehicles; and financial support for automakers retooling plants to make electric vehicles. The bill also directs the President to work with the relevant Federal agencies and California to harmonize, to the maximum extent possible, the federal fuel economy standards, any emission standards promulgated by EPA, and the California standards for light-duty vehicles. Any Federal vehicle standards are to achieve at least the results of the California standards.
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Report: Climate Change Aims Need To Be Better Integrated Into Land Use Planning, Economic and Transport Policies
March 29, 2009
| The policy levels at which climate policy integration may take place. Source: Mickwitz et al. (2009) Click to enlarge. |
Specific measures to tackle climate change, such as emissions trading, will only be successful if they are coherently supported by other government policies addressing economic and social issues, according to a report published 26 March by the Partnership for European Environmental Research (PEER).
The report explains that, in order to create an effective, Europe-wide climate policy, climate change issues must be better integrated into both general and sector-specific policies such as taxation, transportation, and land use planning. By doing this the necessary changes in production processes and consumption patterns to tackle climate change will be achieved.
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Bosch Chairman Says Business Must “Do More” for Climate Protection, Even in Difficult Times
March 26, 2009
Business must do even more for climate protection, even in difficult times, said Franz Fehrenbach, chairman of the Bosch board of management, an a talk at the Baden-Württemberg sustainability congress held in Stuttgart on 25 March (Nachhaltigkeitskongress Baden-Württemberg 2009). The acute economic and financial crisis must not, he said, be allowed to function as a pretext for slackening efforts to combat climate change.
Fehrenbach said that the “green economy” also offered opportunities for overcoming the crisis. According to Fehrenbach, every third euro of sales generated by Bosch now comes from products that conserve resources and/or protect the environment. In 2008, the Bosch Group achieved sales of some € 45 billion (US$61 billion).
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CMU Paper: Market-Based Mechanisms for CO2 Reduction Will Be Insufficient to Attain Mid-Century Goals
March 24, 2009
A new paper from the Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center concludes that while a market-based mechanism (e.g. cap and trade or a carbon tax) is a likely key part of a US strategy to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, such a market-based approach alone will not induce the investments in long-lived technology required to achieve a 50 to 80% reduction in emissions of carbon dioxide by mid-century.
Although market-based mechanisms need to be implemented soon to establish a framework for emissions reductions, the Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) team argues, the range of prices for CO2 currently under discussion will be too low to enable achieving the longer-term targets. In the paper “Cap and Trade is Not Enough: Improving US Climate Policy”, the authors argue that the US Congress should simultaneously design, integrate and implement these targeted strategies:
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Bipartisan Group of US Senators Calls on EPA to Refrain From Including Indirect Land Use Change in Biofuel Regulations
March 17, 2009
A bipartisan group of 12 US senators led by Tom Harkin (D-IA) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) has called on the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) not to include calculations of indirect land use change (ILUC) effects as contributors to life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for biofuels in the upcoming rulemaking for implementation of the updated Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS-2) enacted in the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007.
The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS-2) defined within the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 requires biofuels to meet specified life-cycle greenhouse gas emission reduction targets to qualify. The law specifies that life-cycle GHG emissions are to include “direct emissions and significant indirect emissions such as significant emissions from land use changes, as determined by the Administrator.”
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New Research Tools for Assessing Impacts of Aerosols on Climate
March 13, 2009
Visibility in the clear sky is reduced by the presence of aerosols, whose types and concentrations have a large impact on the amount of solar radiation that reaches Earth’s surface. Researchers at the University of Maryland and the University of Texas, Austin, have created a database that includes visibility measurements taken from 1973 - 2007 at 3,250 meteorological stations all over the world and released by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). A report on their work appears in the 13 March issue of the journal Science.
Separately, researchers from NASA Goddard’s Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City have developed a new detection technique and a new satellite instrument—the Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS)—to measure accurately aerosols’ composition, size, and global distribution.
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UK New Car CO2 Emissions Drop to 158.0 g/km in 2008
March 12, 2009
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| UK average new car CO2 emissions. Source: SMMT. Click to enlarge. |
Average CO2 emissions from new cars sold in the UK in 2008 fell to 158.0 g/km in 2008—4.2% less than the 2007 figure and 16.8% down on the 189.8 g/km base level in 1997, according to figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders’ (SMMT) annual New Car CO2 Report. The drop marks the sharpest annual decline yet. (Using US EPA conversion factors (earlier post), 158 g/km is roughly equivalent to 34.8 mpg US for gasoline and 39.9 mpg US for diesel.)
Although the UK new car fleet has made above-EU15 gains in six of past seven years to 2007, the UK average new car CO2 emissions remains 3.7% above the EU15 average, which reached 158 g/km in 2007, according to the report.
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US EPA Proposes First National Reporting on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Including Mobile Sources
March 10, 2009
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed the first comprehensive national system for reporting emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases produced by major sources in the United States.
The new reporting requirements would apply to suppliers of fossil fuel and industrial chemicals, manufacturers of mobile sources such as motor vehicles and engines, as well as large direct emitters of greenhouse gases with emissions equal to or greater than a threshold of 25,000 metric tons per year. This threshold is roughly equivalent to the annual greenhouse gas emissions from just over 4,500 passenger vehicles.
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EPA: US GHG Up 1.4% in 2007 from 2006; Light-duty Vehicle Emissions Down 0.74%
March 07, 2009
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| Total greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, N20 and HFCs) allocated to passenger cars and light trucks, 1990-2007. Click to enlarge. |
Overall greenhouse gas emissions in the US during 2007 increased by 1.4% from the previous year to 7,125.2 Tg CO2 Eq., according to the annual Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007 draft report released by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Overall, total US emissions have risen by 17% from 1990 to 2007. The report will be open for public comment for 30 days after the Federal Register notice is published.
According to the draft report, this trend was due primarily to (1) cooler winter and warmer summer conditions in 2007 than in 2006 which increased the demand for heating fuels and contributed to the increase in the demand for electricity, (2) increased consumption of fossil fuels to generate electricity and (3) a significant decrease (14.2%) in hydropower generation used to meet this demand.
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California Air Resources Board Releases Proposed Regulation for Low Carbon Fuel Standard
March 05, 2009
The California Air Resources Board (ARB) released its proposed regulation to implement the Low Carbon Fuel Standard. The release of the proposed regulation allows 45 days for the public to review the language and provide comment before the item is considered at the 23 April 23 ARB hearing.
The regulation establishes two performance standards that fuel producers and importers must meet each year beginning in 2011. One standard is established for gasoline and the alternative fuels that can replace it. A second similar standard is set for diesel fuel and its replacements. Each standard is set to achieve an average 10% in the carbon intensity of the statewide mix transportation fuels by 2020. The regulation is expected to result in 16 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2020.
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China’s 2005 Carbon Emissions Almost Twice As Much As 2002 Emissions
February 28, 2009
by Jack Rosebro
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| Carbon emissions associated with increased exports from China (left), as part of a more systematic view of increased national emissions (right), 2002 to 2005. Guan et al. (2009) Click to enlarge. |
Energy efficiency gains in a rapidly modernizing China “cannot cope” with skyrocketing emissions caused by increased exports as well as domestic consumption, according to the paper “Journey to world’s top emitter,” published 27 February in Geophysical Research Letters. Researchers from Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States, estimated in the study that China’s 2005 carbon emissions were 80.59% or more higher than 2002 emissions.
“It is easier to understand the growth in China’s carbon emissions,” note the authors of the paper, “by considering which consumption activities—households and government, capital investments, and international trade—drive Chinese production and hence emissions.”
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Even If Warming Ceased, Sea Level to Rise At Least About 184 mm From Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps
Even if the global climate did not continue to warm, sea level will still rise at least 184 ± 33 mm (7.2 ± 1.3 inches) due to the current mass wastage of the world’s mountain glaciers and ice caps, according to a new study published 11 February in Geophysical Research Letters.
If the climate continues to warm along current trends, a minimum of 373 ± 21 mm (14.7 ± 0.83 inches) of sea-level rise over the next 100 years is expected from glaciers and ice caps, according to the study by researchers at Regis University and the University of Colorado, Boulder. When compared to recent estimates from all other sources, melt water from glaciers must be considered as a particularly important fraction of the total sea-level rise expected this century.
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Two Studies on Regional Options for Reducing GHG Highlight Need for Reduction in Travel Intensity
February 16, 2009
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| Projected GHG emissions in Minnesota with different reduction wedges and wedge portfolios, in million metric tons of CO2 equivalent. The uppermost line in each graph represents emissions under the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Each patterned wedge depicts the reduction below BAU emission levels attributed to a given technology or practice. Olabisi et al. (2009) Click to enlarge. |
Achieving targeted regional reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector will require concentrated efforts to change travel behavior and reduce vehicle miles travelled in addition to advances in vehicle technology and fuels, according to two recent studies.
A paper by researchers at the University of Minnesota, published in the ACS journal Environmental Science & Technology, projects GHG mitigation strategies for Minnesota, which has adopted a strategic goal of 80% emissions reductions below 2005 levels by 2050. A paper by researchers at the Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS), University of California–Davis, to be published in the journal Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, examines how California may reduce transportation greenhouse gas emissions 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 (&ldqou;80in50”). (Earlier version of study, earlier post.)
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Australia Reels From Split Weather System, Suffers Effect Of “The Big Dry” And “The Big Wet”
February 12, 2009
by Jack Rosebro
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| Land surface temperature anomaly across Australia between 25 January and 1 February, 2009, during the first of two heatwaves in the Southeast as well as flooding in the North. The darkest reds and the darkest blues show a 10ºC temperature differential from baseline (white). Source: NASA. Click to enlarge. |
As Australia’s record heat waves during the last week of January and first week of February overloaded urban energy, water, and transport systems in the southernmost states of South Australia and Victoria while intensifying hundreds of seasonal and man-made bushfires throughout the countryside, the northeastern state of Queensland has struggled to cope with the effects of tropical cyclones Charlotte and Ellie, which brought rain and “king tides” that have made two-thirds of that state a disaster zone, destroying livestock as well as key crops and amplifying outbreaks of disease.
As many as 260 to 300 people are feared dead from fire in Victoria, with 181 deaths confirmed. The projected deaths surpass the combined fatalities from all of Australia’s major bushfire disasters (e.g. Black Friday of 1939, Ash Wednesday of 1983) in recorded history. Full accounting of all human remains are expected to take several months.
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NETL Report Concludes CTL Plus Carbon Capture Results in Fuel with 5-12% Less Lifecycle GHG Than Petroleum Diesel; Modest Biomass Additions Lower GHG Further
February 07, 2009
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| Lifecycle GHG emissions of CTL/CBTL/BTL compared to 2005 petroleum diesel baseline. Background colors of the cells represent the crude oil price required for economic feasibility. Tarka et al. (2009) Click to enlarge. |
A new report from the US Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) concludes that coupling a Coal to Liquids (CTL) process with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) yields a fuel with 5-12% less lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to the average emissions profile of petroleum-derived diesel, based on the US national average in 2005. These synthetic fuels are economically competitive with petro-diesel when the crude oil price (COP) is at or above $86 per barrel (based on a 20% rate of return, in January 2008 dollars, with a carbon price of zero).
Adding biomass to the coal in the CTL process (Coal and Biomass to Liquids, CBTL) can reduce the GHG emissions further, according to the study. A mixture of 8% (by weight) biomass and 92% coal can produce fuels which have 20% lower life cycle GHG emissions than petroleum-derived diesel and which are economically competitive when crude prices are equal to or above $93/bbl.
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New Study Shows that Sea Level Rise Resulting From Collapse of West Antarctic Ice Sheet Would be Non-Uniform; Some Regions to See Levels Much Higher Than Previously Predicted
February 06, 2009
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| Sea-level change in response to the collapse of the WAIS computed by using (A) a standard eustatic sea-level theory and (B) the new model. (C) shows the difference between predictions generated by using the two sea-level theories [(B) minus (A)]. Source: Mitrovica et al. (2009) Click to enlarge. |
A new study by researchers at the University of Toronto and Oregon State University concludes that when physical and gravitational factors are applied to projections of sea level rise resulting from a catastrophic collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the impact on coastal areas is dramatically worse in some parts of the world than predicted so far.
They found that the catastrophic increase in sea level, already projected to average between 16 and 17 feet around the world (~5m), would be almost 21 feet in such places as Washington, DC, putting it largely underwater. Many coastal areas would be devastated. Much of southern Florida would disappear.
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European Commission: Global Climate Strategy Needed To Avoid “Potentially Unmanageable Consequences”
February 02, 2009
by Jack Rosebro
The European Commission has sent a formal communication[1] to the European Council and European Parliament, laying out the Commission’s recommendations to Council and Parliament on positions that the European Union should take during international climate change negotiations later this year in Copenhagen.
The negotiations, which will be conducted in December under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), are scheduled to produce an international agreement on future climate change reductions to be implemented after the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012. The Kyoto Protocol committed participating industrialized countries to an average greenhouse gas emissions reduction of 5.2% by 2008-2012, as compared to 1990.
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Marine Scientists Issue Monaco Declaration Calling for Immediate Action to Reduce Ocean Acidification
January 30, 2009
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| Projected spread of acidification of the oceans from 1994 (left) to 2100 (right). Green areas indicate waters supersaturated with aragonite carbonate and favoring shell formation, with darker color indicating more favorable conditions. Red areas are those where waters are under-saturated in aragonite and so hostile to shell formation by marine organisms, with darker color indicating greater under-saturation. Source: ACECRC. Click to enlarge. |
More than 150 leading marine scientists from 26 countries are calling for immediate action by policymakers to reduce CO2 emissions sharply so as to avoid widespread and severe damage to marine ecosystems from increasing ocean acidification—the “other CO2 problem”. They issued this warning in the Monaco Declaration, released on 30 January.
The scientists note that ocean acidification is already detectable, and that it is accelerating. They caution that its negative socio-economic impacts can only be avoided by limiting future atmospheric CO2 levels.
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Study Concludes US LDV Fleet Needs to Reduce Carbon Emissions Per Mile By Up to 88% by 2050 to Meet 450ppm Stabilization Scenario; No Single Carbon Reduction Strategy Likely to Achieve This
January 29, 2009
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| Well-to-wheel carbon emissions limits (g/mi) for LDVs to meet target concentrations given a 2050 convergence date, two different VMT growth scenarios (0% and 1.7% per year), and a baseline LDV emissions share (25.3% of US emissions). Credit: ACS. Click to enlarge. |
Researchers at the University of Michigan (U-M) have calculated quantitative sustainable mobility targets for US light-duty vehicles (LDVs) to help stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at 450 or 550 ppm, based on the well-to-wheel carbon emissions per mile driven.
Average fleet-wide on-road light-duty vehicle (LDV) well-to-wheel carbon emissions must be reduced from 160 g carbon/mile (equivalent to 586.7 gCO2/mile) to as little as 20 gC/mile (equivalent to 73 gCO2/mile) under one scenario by 2050—an 88% reduction—to contribute to a goal of 450 ppm, according to according to Greg Keoleian, co-director of the U-M School of Natural Resources and Environment, and his co-authors, Hilary Grimes-Casey and Blair Willcox of the Center for Sustainable Systems.
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Researchers Develop Method for Higher-Rate Solar Photocatalytic Conversion of CO2 and Water Vapor to Hydrocarbon Fuels
January 28, 2009
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| Product generation rates from a nitrogen-doped nanotube array film surface-loaded with both Pt and Cu catalysts. Credit: ACS. Click to enlarge. |
Researchers at Penn State have developed a method for the more efficient solar conversion of carbon dioxide and water vapor to methane and other hydrocarbons using nitrogen-doped titania nanotube arrays. The arrays feature a wall thickness low enough to facilitate effective carrier transfer to the adsorbing species, and are surface-loaded with nanodimensional islands of co-catalysts platinum (Pt) and/or copper (Cu).
A paper on their work was published online 27 January in the ACS journal Nano Letters.
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Researchers Evaluate Climate Cooling Potential of Different Geoengineering Schemes
January 27, 2009
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| Schematic overview of the climate geoengineering proposals considered. From Vaughan and Lenton (2009). Click to enlarge. |
Researchers at the University of East Anglia (UEA) have carried out the first comprehensive assessment of the relative merits of different geoengineering schemes in terms of the climate cooling potential. Their paper appears in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions.
Climate geoengineering proposals seek to combat the effects of climate change—in particular to counteract the effects of increased CO2 in the atmosphere. There are two basic approaches proposed: reducing the atmospheric absorption of incoming solar (shortwave) radiation, or removing CO2 from the atmosphere and transferring it to long-lived reservoirs, thereby increasing outgoing longwave radiation.
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New Study Concludes Climate Changes Largely Irreversible for More Than 1,000 Years After CO2 Emissions Completely Stopped
A new study led by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) senior scientist Susan Solomon shows how changes in surface temperature, rainfall, and sea level are largely irreversible for more than 1,000 years after carbon dioxide emissions are completely stopped. A paper on the findings appears during the week of 26 January in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The study examines the consequences of allowing CO2 to build up to several different peak levels beyond present-day concentrations of 385 parts per million and then completely halting the emissions after the peak. The authors found that the scientific evidence is strong enough to quantify some irreversible climate impacts, including rainfall changes in certain key regions, and global sea level rise.
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UK to Spend £250M for Low Carbon Vehicles
January 20, 2009
The UK Government will spend £250 million (US$354 million) on a wide-ranging package of measures to promote ultra-low carbon vehicles. Transport Secretary Geoff Hoon announced the move alongside the government’s decision to grant approval for a third runway at Heathrow Airport—a highly-charged issue in the UK.
In a wide-ranging statement to the House of Commons, Secretary Hoon outlined the government’s plans for spending on low-carbon vehicles, and road and rail infrastructure before announcing the Heathrow decision.
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US Climate Change Science Program Releases Four More Final Synthesis and Assessments Reports; Arctic Amplification, Aerosols, Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Ecological Thresholds
January 19, 2009
The US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) released four more final synthesis and assessment (S&A) reports in the series that will total 21. These latest S&A products examine past climate variability and change in the Arctic (1.2); the impact of aerosols on climate (2.3); the sensitivity of the Mid-Atlantic coastal region to sea-level rise (4.1); and thresholds of climate change in ecosystems (4.2).
The CCSP integrates the federal research efforts of 13 agencies on climate and global change. Other S&A products have reported on the affect of climate change on US agriculture, land and water resources, and biodiversity (4.3, earlier post), weather and climate extremes (3.3, earlier post); and adaptation options (4.4, earlier post).
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New Analysis Suggests Biofuels Land Use Change GHG Impact Not as Large as Predicted
A new analysis by Michigan State University (MSU) researchers suggests that other studies that have concluded that land use changes resulting from biofuel production are significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions are based on a set of assumptions that may not be correct.
In a paper published in the journal Science in February 2008, Timothy Searchinger from Princeton and colleagues at Woods Hole Research Center and Iowa State University concluded that, for example, when emissions from land-use change are considered, corn-based ethanol, instead of producing a net 20% savings in greenhouse gases, nearly doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years and increases greenhouse gases for 167 years. Biofuels from switchgrass, if grown on US corn lands under the same analysis, increase emissions by 50%. (Earlier post.)
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Summer Temperatures for Second Half Of Century Projected to Exceed Current Records, Contribute to Food Insecurity
January 11, 2009
by Jack Rosebro
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| Likelihood, in percentage, that regional average summer temperatures during (a) 2040—2060 and (b) 2080—2100 will exceed the highest average summer temperatures on record for those regions from 1900 to 2006. Source: David S. Battisti, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington and Rosamond L. Naylor, Program on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University. Click to enlarge. |
A report published this week in Science[1] compares the effects of two significant heat-induced disruptions of food production from recent history with projected effects of temperature increases up to and including the latter half of this century. The study finds that there is a greater than 90% likelihood that by 2080-2100, growing season temperatures will exceed even the most extreme seasonal temperatures recorded in the last century for the majority of the world’s tropics and subtropics, exposing an area with a current population of more than three billion people to food insecurity.
David Battisti of the University of Washington and Rosamond Naylor of Stanford University compared two historically significant examples of severe heat-induced crop decline—France in 2003 and the Ukraine in 1972—to average temperatures for more than a century. They found that climatological daily high temperatures from June to August were approximately 2-4 ºC higher in France and 3-5 ºC higher in the Ukraine than each region’s 1900-2006 average for those months. They then extrapolated the historical effects of the two events onto 23 climate models for the remainder of the 21st century.
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Eleven Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States to Develop Regional Low Carbon Fuel Standard
January 06, 2009
Eleven Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states will cooperate to develop a regional Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). The 11 states—the 10 members of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) plus Pennsylvania—will work together to create an emissions-performance standard that will eventually provide incentives for energy providers to use lower-carbon fuels.
In June, Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick sent a letter to the governors of all 10 RGGI states inviting them to work with Massachusetts on developing a Low Carbon Fuel Standard that would apply to the entire region, creating a larger market for cleaner fuels, reducing emissions associated with global climate change, and supporting the development of clean energy technologies. Last week, the heads of environmental protection agencies and, in some cases, energy agencies, in the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont signed a Letter of Intent to tackle the challenge of reducing greenhouse gases from fuels in a joint effort.
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Study Concludes That Climate Change Alone Could Erode US Improvements in Ground Level Ozone Events Resulting from Reduced Emissions
January 05, 2009
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| Differences in the average (June-August) MDA8-O3 mixing ratios (ppbv) in the surface layer (984-934 hPa) corresponding to (a) climate change under present emissions; (b) A2 emissions change under present climate; (c) climate change under A2 emissions; (d) B1 emissions change under present climate; and (e) climate change under B1 emissions). All differences correspond to 10 year averages. The mean difference is displayed to the left of the panel. Credit: ACS. Click to enlarge. |
Global climate change by itself can significantly worsen the severity and frequency of high ground-level ozone (O3) events over most locations in the US, even with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality, according to a new modeling study by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University.
While changes in US anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term US O3 air quality standards, high-O3 increases due to climate change alone can moderately erode an improvement in O3 made under a scenario of reduced US emissions, they concluded. A paper on the study by Pavan Racherla and Peter Adams was published online 30 December 2008 in the ACS journal Environmental Science & Technology.
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UK Evaluating Intelligent Speed Adaptation Systems for Road Safety and GHG Emissions Reduction
January 03, 2009
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| Summary results of impact of ISA systems on CO2 emissions. Click to enlarge. |
The UK government’s Commission for Integrated Transport (CfIT) and the Motorists’ Forum (MF) recently issued a joint report evaluating the impact of implementing an Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA) system across the entire road network on reducing deaths and injuries on the UK roads and on reducing fuel consumption and emissions of CO2 and criteria pollutants. They partners commissioned the Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds to produce the report.
ISA systems use enhanced navigation systems which incorporate speed limit as a road attribute to compare the local speed limit to the vehicle speed. The ISA system automatically detects the road on which a vehicle is travelling—and hence the speed limit—without any user intervention. ISA systems take three basic forms:
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Devil in the Details: NASA Satellite Joins The Search For Carbon Sinks and Sources
by Jack Rosebro
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| Artist’s visualization of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) in orbit approximately 483 miles above the Earth’s surface. Source: NASA. Click to enlarge. |
NASA is preparing for next month’s launch of its Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO), a 441 kg (970 lb) satellite designed to map geographic distribution and seasonal variations of Earth’s natural and anthropogenic carbon sinks and sources at a resolution of approximately one square mile per measurement. The mission is part of NASA’s ongoing study of the planet’s carbon and water cycles under the auspices of NASA’s Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) program.
The Orbiting Carbon Observatory will circle the Earth every 98.8 minutes in a sun-synchronous orbit, collecting about half a million measurements per day and mapping the Earth’s surface approximately once per month.
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UK Met Office Forecasts 2009 to be One of Top 5 Warmest Years on Record Despite Cool Pacific
December 31, 2008
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| Warmest 50 years, color-coded by period. The inset shows the entire data range from 1850. Click to enlarge. |
Climate scientists at the UK’s Met Office and the University of East Anglia forecast the 2009 global temperature to be 14.44 °C—more than 0.4 °C above the long-term average. This would make 2009 warmer than 2008 (preliminarily pegged at 14.3 °C, the tenth-warmest on a record dating back to 1850); the warmest since 2005 (14.48 °C); and one of the top-five warmest years on record, despite continued cooling of huge areas of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
The 2009 forecast includes an updated decadal forecast using a Met Office climate model. This indicates a rapid return of global temperature to the long-term warming trend, with an increasing probability of record temperatures after 2009.
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Munich Re: 2008 Natural Catastrophes Show That “Climate Change Has Already Started”
December 30, 2008
by Jack Rosebro
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| 2008 natural disasters, by location and severity. Source: Munich Re. Click to enlarge. |
Munich Re, one of the world’s largest re-insurers, has released its annual figures on worldwide losses from natural catastrophes, and has termed 2008 “one of the most devastating years on record,” partly due to the large number of tropical cyclones as well as the Sichuan earthquake in China.
According to the company, the year is the third most expensive on record, exceeded only by 2005—the year that Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans—and 1995, the year of the Kobe earthquake.
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“Nature Does Not Provide Bailouts”: Tällberg Provocation Calls for Complete Decarbonization of Industrialized Countries by 2050
December 28, 2008
by Jack Rosebro
The Tällberg Foundation has released a discussion paper[1] that proposes a global greenhouse gas emission reduction target of 90% along with a target of 100% “domestic, at-source” reductions coming from industrialized countries by the year 2050, with the objective of avoiding many of the more unpredictable potential effects of climate change.
The paper, or “Tällberg Provocation”, anticipates that if industrialized countries are to attain complete decarbonization by 2050, they will need to cut domestic greenhouse gas production by as much as half while offsetting another quarter of domestic GHGs with emissions reductions elsewhere by 2020.
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Australia Sets Target of 5-15% Carbon Reduction by 2020, Announces 2010 Carbon Market
December 22, 2008
by Jack Rosebro
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| Business-as-usual trajectory and 2020 target trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions, 2005-2020. Click to enlarge. |
Australia’s politicians, business groups, environmentalists, and citizens are debating the country’s first proposed carbon reduction and trading plan White Paper[1], which was announced by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd last week.
The plan calls for a reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 5% to 15% below year 2000 levels by 2020, with the 15% cut occurring only “in the context of global agreement under which all major economies commit to substantially restrain emissions and advanced economies take on reductions comparable to Australia.”[2] Australia’s long-term GHG emissions reduction target is 60% below 1990 levels by 2050.
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European Parliament Climate Change Package Includes Vehicle CO2 Regulations and Low Carbon Fuel Standard
December 20, 2008
The European Parliament this past week approved the EU’s climate change package intended to achieve a 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, a 20% improvement in energy efficiency, and a 20% share for renewables in the EU energy mix by 2020. (Earlier post.)
Included in that package is the regulation setting CO2 emissions performance standards for new cars registered in the EU (based on the compromise worked out earlier, earlier post) as well as a revised fuel quality directive that incorporates a low carbon fuel standard.
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New Jersey Releases Draft Plan for Reducing GHG Emissions; Low Emission Vehicle Standards a Key Element
December 16, 2008
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| Projected GHG reduction by 2020 from three main programs, including Low Emission Vehicle standards. Click to enlarge. |
The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) released the state’s proposed plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 (approximately a 25% reduction below estimated 2020 business-as-usual emissions), followed by a further reduction of emissions to 80% below 2006 levels by 2050. DEP invited the public to comment on the recommendations outlined in a draft report published on the state’s Global Warming website.
The draft report is a key requirement of the Global Warming Response Act (GWRA), signed by Governor Corzine on 6 July 2007. The plan reinforces three of the state’s core environmental programs that are aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from New Jersey’s largest and second-largest contributing sectors: transportation and energy.
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Greenland Deglaciating at Triple the Rate of Last Year; Ice Loss in Antarctic Shifting Bedrock
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| The survey of 32 of the largest Greenland tidewater glaciers indicates a continuous collective retreat end of summer 2000 onward to 2008. Click to enlarge. |
The amount of ice lost from Greenland this summer is nearly three times what was lost one year ago, in itself a record-setting year, according to researchers from Ohio State University (OSU). They presented their findings Monday at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Meeting in San Francisco.
A separate study by a different team of OSU researchers, also presented at the AGU meeting on Monday, found that as ice melts away from Antarctica, parts of the continental bedrock are rising in response, while other parts are sinking.
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UN Climate Talks Look to Copenhagen As Last Stand, EU Sets Climate Change Goals for 2020
December 15, 2008
by Jack Rosebro
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| Historical and projected energy-related CO2 emissions, by fuel, assuming no significant availability of renewable energies. Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008. Click to enlarge. |
The 14th Conference of Parties (COP-14) of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC), which was attended by almost two hundred environmental ministers and secretaries, concluded last week in Poznań, Poland without significant action toward the establishment of concrete reductions in greenhouse gases, but with “a clear commitment from governments to shift into full negotiating mode next year, in order to shape an ambitious and effective international response to climate change”[1] at COP-15, scheduled to be held in December 2009 in Copenhagen, according to the UNFCCC.
COP-15 is widely regarded as the last opportunity for world governments to agree on a common strategy to both reduce and adapt to climate change, and then ratify that strategy prior to the expiration of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012.
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Study Concludes Wind-Powered BEV and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Best Options, Biofuels the Worst to Address Climate, Energy Security and Pollution
December 13, 2008
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| A combined weighted ranking of the 12 combinations of energy sources and vehicle type against 11 impact categories. Click to enlarge. |
A new study by Stanford University professor Mark Jacobson (earlier post) reviews and ranks major proposed energy-related solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy security while considering impacts of the solutions on eleven different factors ranging from resource availability to mortality. To place electricity and liquid fuel options on an equal footing, Jacobson considered 12 combinations of energy sources and vehicle type: nine electric power sources (solar-PV, CSP, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, wave, tidal, nuclear, and coal with CCS) and two liquid fuel options (corn-E85, cellulosic E85) in combination with three vehicle technologies (battery-electric, BEVs; hydrogen fuel cell, HFCVs; and flex-fuel E85 vehicles).
The overall rankings of the combinations (from best to worst) were: (1) wind-powered battery-electric vehicles (BEVs); (2) wind-powered hydrogen fuel cell vehicles; (3) concentrated-solar-powered-BEVs; (4) geothermal-powered-BEVs; (5) tidal-powered-BEVs; (6) solar-photovoltaic-powered-BEVs; (7) wave-powered-BEVs; (8) hydroelectric-powered-BEVs; (9-tie) nuclear-powered-BEVs; (9-tie) coal-with-carbon-capture-powered-BEVs; (11) corn-E85 vehicles; and (12) cellulosic-E85 vehicles. His findings are published online in an open access article in the journal Energy & Environmental Science.
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California ARB Adopts Landmark In-Use Heavy-Duty Truck Rules to Reduce PM, NOx and GHG
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| Projected statewide NOx (right) and PM2.5 (left) emissions with and without the regulations. Click to enlarge. |
The California Air Resources Board yesterday adopted two regulations directly aimed at reducing PM, NOx and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the estimated one million heavy-duty diesel trucks that operate in California. (Earlier post.) Beginning 1 January 2011, the Statewide Truck and Bus rule will require truck owners to install diesel exhaust filters on their rigs, with nearly all vehicles upgraded by 2014. Owners must also replace engines older than the 2010 model year according to a staggered implementation schedule that extends from 2012 to 2022.
The Heavy Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction measure, also adopted during the Board meeting on Friday, requires long-haul truckers to install fuel efficient tires and aerodynamic devices on their trailers that lower greenhouse gas emissions and improve fuel economy.
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California Air Resources Board Adopts Plan to Cut State GHG Emissions to 1990 Levels by 2020
December 12, 2008
The California Air Resources Board yesterday approved the Scoping Plan (earlier post) to reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. California is now the first state to formally approve a comprehensive greenhouse gas reduction plan that is required under statute and that involves every sector of the economy. Development of the Scoping Plan is a central requirement of AB 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006; Governor Schwarzenegger signed the bill into law in September 2006.
The Scoping Plan requires the largest sectorial chunk of reductions to come from transportation, outlining projected 62.3 MMTCO2e (37%) in reductions through a variety of measures.
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Study Finds That Without a Price on Carbon, Regular Hybrids Can Lower Lifecycle CO2 Emissions As Effectively as Plug-in Hybrids, and At Lower Cost
December 11, 2008
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| No CO2 price scenario. Final penetration of plug-in hybrids and regular hybrids in 2030 is plotted with corresponding changes in cumulative emissions from 2012 to 2030. The dotted line shows the incremental emission changes of plug-in hybrids compared to regular hybrids. Click to enlarge. |
A new working paper from Duke University finds that in the absence of a price signal for CO2, regular hybrids can lower lifecycle carbon dioxide emissions as effectively as plug-in hybrids, and at a considerably lower cost.
In the paper, Eric Williams, co-director of Duke’s Climate Change Policy Partnership (CCPP), compares the two hybrid technologies to see which could lead to lower carbon dioxide emissions, operating costs and overall consumer costs. Williams used six plug-in hybrid penetration scenarios, each of which begins in 2012 and ends in 2030 with a final penetration into vehicle stock ranging from 2% to 56%. He also analyzed four additional scenarios, based on penetrations of 2% and 56%, that have CO2 prices of $20 and $40 per ton. He found that:
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Report Concludes That 19% of World’s Coral Reefs Already Lost
The world has lost 19% of its coral reefs, according to the 2008 global update of the world’s reef status. The Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2008 report is the 5th global report since the GCRMN (Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network), was formed in 1996 as an operational network of the International Coral Reef Initiative (ICRI).
Estimates assembled through the expert opinions of 372 coral reef scientists and managers from 96 countries are that 15% of reefs are seriously threatened with loss within the next 10–20 years, and 20% are under threat of loss in 20–40 years. The latter two estimates have been made under a ‘business as usual’ scenario that does not consider the threats posed by global climate change or that effective future management may conserve more coral reefs.
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Australia Publishes Aviation Green Paper; Precursor to White Paper on Aviation Strategy in 2009
December 07, 2008
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| Passenger air journeys within and to and from Australia. Click to enlarge. |
The Government of Australia has published an Aviation Green Paper, and is inviting comments on it to be considered in the development of a White Paper in 2009. The Aviation White Paper will be the first attempt to bring all aspects of aviation policy together in a single forward-looking statement.
Australia’s economy is heavily dependent upon aviation, given its vast internal distances and isolation from the rest of the world, says Anthony Albanese, Minister for Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government. The Aviation White Paper will be intended to deliver a blueprint for the long-term, safe and sustainable development of Australian aviation over the next 20 years.
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JAMA Recommends Measures for Reducing CO2 Emissions in Global Transport Sector
December 06, 2008
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| Potential CO2 reductions in the global transport sector with JAMA measures. Click to enlarge. |
Despite an estimated 15% reduction in gCO2/km (CO2 intensity) in global road transport emissions by 2030, aggregate CO2 emissions for the global sector will increase by roughly 60% over present levels by 2030, according to a new report by the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA). Countering that increase will require aggressive application of a range of countermeasures spanning vehicle and fuel technology; improvements in traffic flow; and more efficient vehicle use—i.e., driver behavior—JAMA says.
JAMA projected the 15% decrease in gCO2/km in the global road transport sector based on some of the following assumptions:
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Total US GHG Emissions Rose 1.4% in 2007; Transportation Sector Emissions Flat
December 03, 2008
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| The flow of US greenhouse gas emissions in 2007, from their sources to their distribution across the US end-use sectors. Click to enlarge. Source: EIA |
Total US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were 7,282 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e) in 2007, an increase of 1.4% from the 2006 level, according to Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2007, a report released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Since 1990, US GHG emissions have grown at an average annual rate of 0.9%.
The transportation sector has led all US end-use sectors in emissions of carbon dioxide since 1999. However, with higher fuel prices and slower economic growth in 2007, emissions from the transportation sector in 2007 (2,104 MMTCO2) were essentially unchanged from their 2006 level (2,103 MMTCO2).
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European Parliament and Council Reach Agreement on Automotive CO2 Regulations
December 02, 2008
Following a series of meetings between Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) and the French Presidency of the Council, the two sides have informally agreed upon the details of future targets on CO2 emissions from cars. The compromise identifies a longer-term reduction target; allows phased-in implementation of the shorter-term target; and reduces proposed penalties against carmakers that exceed the limits.
The informal compromise is based on the Commission’s proposed target of an average of 120g of CO2/km for new passenger cars (M1 category) by 2012, compared to the current levels of 160 g/km. A target of 130g/km is to be reached by improvements in vehicle motor technology; the subsequent 10g/km reduction is to come from other technological improvements and by an increased use of sustainable biofuels. Key elements of the compromise include:
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New Global Survey Finds Consumers Want Government Action on Climate Change; Decreasing Willingness to Take Personal Action
November 30, 2008
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| Percentage of respondents ranking climate change higher than global economy. Click to enlarge. |
The results of a new global survey released by the HSBC Climate Partnership show that consumers want governments to stop haggling on carbon concessions and act. The Climate Confidence Monitor 2008 surveyed 12,000 people across 12 markets and found that 43% of those surveyed chose climate change ahead of global economic stability when asked about their top three concerns, despite the survey taking place in the midst of the financial market turmoil in September-October 2008.
In a clear call for resolution to the debate on emission targets, 77% of people surveyed worldwide want to see their government cutting carbon by their national “fair share” or more to allow less developed economies to grow.
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Europe Closing in on 6% Lower Carbon Road Fuel Standard by 2020
Europe is moving closer to finalizing a new fuel quality law which will require fuel suppliers to cut full life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions from road fuels by 6% between 2010 and 2020.
ENDS (Environmental Data Services) reports that the cuts are expected to come from production efficiency improvements and a switch to biofuels and other cleaner fuels. Biofuel sustainability criteria will be added to the new law once they have been agreed in separate negotiations relating to the new Renewable Energy Directive.
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Report: Climate Change Puts Forests and People At Risk; Adaptation Required to Avert Crisis
November 29, 2008
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| Examples of measures for forest adaptation. Click to enlarge. |
Unless immediate action is taken, climate change could have a devastating effect on the world’s forests and the nearly 1 billion people who depend on them for their livelihoods, according to a team of scientists from the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR).
In their report—Facing an Uncertain Future: How Forests and People can Adapt to Climate Change—released in conjunction with the UNFCCC Conference of Parties meeting in Poznán, Poland, the CIFOR researchers call for the implementation of adaptation measures to reduce the vulnerability of the forests and forest-dependent communities that will experience an unprecedented combination of climate change-associated disturbances like flooding, drought, wildfire, and other environmental challenges in the next 100 years.
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British Columbia Joins California Challenge of Denial of Automotive GHG Waiver; Province Converting 34 Vehicles to Plug-in Electrics
November 27, 2008
The Province of British Columbia, Canada (BC) has filed a legal brief with the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in support of California’s legal challenge to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which denied a waiver to implement the AB 1493 (Pavley) greenhouse gas emissions standard for vehicles. (Earlier post.)
BC introduced legislation in April that allows adoption of California greenhouse gas emission standards for vehicles. The California model will achieve greater GHG emission reductions than the proposed US federal fuel economy standards that have also been committed to by Canada as a minimum starting in 2011. An analysis by the staff of the California Air Resources Board concluded that implementing the Pavley rules in Canada would result in a cumulative total of 87 MMT of GHG reductions by calendar year 2020, compared to 58 MMT of GHG reductions achieved by the proposed federal standards.(Earlier post.)
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Study Finds Rate of Ocean Acidification Faster than Expected
University of Chicago scientists have found that the ocean is growing more acidic faster than previously thought. In addition, they have found that the increasing acidity correlates with increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, according to a paper published online by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on 24 November.
The new study is based on 24,519 measurements of ocean pH spanning eight years, which represents the first detailed dataset on variations of coastal pH at a temperate latitude—where the world’s most productive fisheries live.
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WMO: Atmospheric Concentration of Greenhouse Gases Continues to Increase
November 25, 2008
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| Changes in atmospheric radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases and the 2007 update of the NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI). 1990 is the reference year. Click to enlarge. |
Levels of climate-warming greenhouse gases continue to increase in the atmosphere, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) 2007 Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.
The globally averaged mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) reached new highs in 2007 with CO2 at 383.1 ppm (up 0.5% from 2006); CH4 at 1,789 ppb (up 0.34% from 2006); and N2O at 320.9 ppb (up 0.25% from 2006). These values are higher than those in pre-industrial times (before 1750) by 37%, 156% and 19%, respectively.
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Report Outlines Transport Policies for Cutting GHG Emissions from UK Transport by 26% by 2020
November 24, 2008
A new research report recommends a comprehensive package of transport policies that could reduce UK transport sector greenhouse gas emissions by 26% by 2020 from 2006 levels. The research comes as the Climate Change Bill passes into law and the Committee on Climate Change prepares to release its first proposal for UK carbon budgets up to 2022 on 1 December.
Current government policies, including intensive improvements to vehicle efficiency, will achieve less than a 5% reduction in CO2 on 1990 levels by 2020, according to the report, “A low carbon transport policy for the UK.” The report was prepared by Keith Buchan of Metropolitan Transport Research Unit (MTRU) and sponsored by Campaign for Better Transport.
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Road Emissions Dominate Long-Term Global Transport Climate Impact
November 23, 2008
After 100 years today’s global road emissions will lead to a temperature increase that is six times greater than the temperature increase from today’s air transport, according to a study by researchers at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo (CICERO) in Norway.
The study—“Global temperature responses to current emissions from the transport sectors”—includes the effects of all climate-relevant components of the emissions, not only CO2. It will appear in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). The study examines the effect of total global emissions, not emissions per passenger kilometer. The researchers will calculate climate impacts per passenger kilometer in a later study.
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Two New Studies Detail Impact and Acceleration of Ocean Acidification in Different Regions
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| The potential for coral growth—represented by aragonite concentration—in the Caribbean region is dramatically changing due to ocean acidification. Click to view an animation of changes from 1988 to 2007. Credit: NOAA |
Two recently published studies highlight the growing impact of ocean acidification—the lowering of the pH of seawater due to the increasing absorption of large amounts of carbon dioxide—in the Caribbean and the Southern Ocean.
A paper by scientists from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science confirms significant ocean acidification across much of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The paper, published in the 31 October issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research—Oceans, reports strong natural variations in ocean chemistry in some parts of the Caribbean that could affect the way reefs respond to future ocean acidification.
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Report: Climate Change Already Increasing Malaria and Dengue in the Pacific
November 22, 2008
by Jack Rosebro
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| World Health Organization estimation of deaths caused by anthropogenic climate change up to 2000. Click to enlarge. |
A policy brief from the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia entitled “The Sting of Climate Change”[1] argues that global climate change is exacerbating a thirty-year increase in malaria and dengue throughout maritime Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands, and that Australia, as a “fringe country” to mosquito-borne disease, should increase efforts to mitigate the spread of those diseases in both affected areas and areas not yet affected, as well as the potential of transmission to the Australian population from migrating environmental refugees.
Screening, quarantining, and treatment of immigrants from malaria-infested countries is currently carried out in Australia’s Northern Territory. The brief’s author, Dr. Sarah Potter of Environmental Health Branch, NSW Department of Health, recommends that malaria screening be extended to other states, including Queensland and Western Australia, and that dengue screening be initiated, as well.
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California Governor Issues Executive Order to Begin Planning for Adapting to Sea Level Rise
November 15, 2008
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| USGS Coastal Vulnerability Index for sea level rise for California. Click to enlarge. |
Stating that the longer California delays planning and adapting to coming sea level rise the more expensive and difficult adaptation will be, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger issued an Executive Order (S-13-08) directing a set of state agencies to begin those tasks.
Separately, a newly-released report by David Roland-Holst and Fredrich Kahrl at UC Berkeley—California Climate Risk and Response—found that the state has $4 trillion in real estate assets, of which $2.5 trillion are at risk from extreme weather events, sea level rise, and wildfires, with a projected annual price tag of $300 million to $3.9 billion over this century, depending on how warm the world gets.
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Widespread and Complex Climatic Changes Outlined in New UNEP Project Atmospheric Brown Cloud Report
November 13, 2008
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| Anthropogenic aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the period 2001-2003 for four seasons. AOD is an index for the fraction of sunlight intercepted by particles and total aerosol concentration in the vertical column. Click to enlarge. Source: UNEP |
Cities from Beijing to New Delhi are getting darker, glaciers in ranges like the Himalayas are melting faster and weather systems becoming more extreme due in part to the combined effects of man-made Atmospheric Brown Clouds (ABCs) and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
These are among the conclusions of scientists studying a more than three km-thick layer of soot and other manmade particles that stretches from the Arabian Peninsula to China and the western Pacific Ocean. The team, drawn from research centers in Asia including China and India, Europe and the United States, has just published their latest and most detailed assessment of the phenomenon. Their preliminary assessment was published in 2002.
