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[Due to the increasing size of the archives, each topic page now contains only the prior 365 days of content. Access to older stories is now solely through the Monthly Archive pages or the site search function.]
GCP Carbon Budget Finds Global Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions Rose 2% in 2008 Despite Global Financial Crisis; Natural Sinks Not Keeping Pace With Increasing Emissions
November 17, 2009
Despite the economic effects of the global financial crisis (GFC), carbon dioxide emissions from human activities rose 2% in 2008 to an all-time high of 1.3 tonnes of carbon per capita per year, according to a new paper published by an international team of 31 scientists in Nature Geoscience.
The authors, under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project, reported a 29% increase in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel between 2000 and 2008 (the latest year for which figures are available), and by 41% between 2008 and 1990, the reference year of the Kyoto Protocol. The use of coal as a fuel has now surpassed oil and developing countries now emit more greenhouse gases than developed countries, with a quarter of their growth in emissions accounted for by increased trade with the West.
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Sponsors of SAE Study Conclude HFO-1234yf Can Be Used As Low-GWP Global Replacement Refrigerant in MAC Systems
November 10, 2009
A two-year Cooperative Research Program conducted through SAE International to investigate the safety and environmental performance of the low-global-warming-potential (GWP) refrigerant HFO-1234yf for mobile air conditioning (MAC) systems has finished its study.
Based on these results, the sponsors of the SAE CRP 1234 have concluded that HFO-1234yf can be used as the global replacement refrigerant in future mobile air conditioning systems and it can be safely accommodated through established industry standards and practices for vehicle design, engineering, manufacturing, and service. he report is the third SAE report to evaluate the new refrigerant.
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Economic Modelling Study Shows Canada Can Meet Global-Warming Reduction Targets While Growing Jobs and Economy
November 01, 2009
| Emission reduction actions for the more aggressive scenario (25% below 1990 by 2020). Source: Pembina. Click to enlarge. |
Canada can succeed economically while meeting targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, according to an economic modelling study commissioned by the Pembina Institute and the David Suzuki Foundation.
“Climate Leadership, Economic Prosperity” is the first Canadian study to show regional impacts on employment and gross domestic product, and the first to comprehensively examine how Canada can meet a greenhouse gas reduction target for 2020 that goes beyond the federal government’s target.
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NASA GISS Study Finds That Methane Has an Elevated Warming Effect Due to Interactions With Aerosols
October 30, 2009
| The 100-year global warming potentials (GWPs) for methane, CO, and NOx (per Tg N) as given in the AR4 and in this study when including no aerosol response; the direct radiative effect of aerosol responses; and the direct+indirect radiative effects of aerosol responses. Source: Shindell at al. Click to enlarge. |
New research by a team at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York suggests that gas-aerosol interactions can amplify the global warming impact of some greenhouse gases. In particular, the study led by Drew Shindell found that methane emissions have a larger warming impact due to those interactions than accounted for in current carbon-trading schemes or in the Kyoto Protocol.
Among other conclusions, they found that the 100-year global warming potential (GWP) of methane is ~10% greater (~20 to 40%, including aerosol indirect effects AIE) than earlier estimates that neglected interactions between oxidants and aerosols. Calculations for the shorter 20-year GWP, including aerosol responses, yielded values of 79 and 105 for methane, including direct and direct+indirect radiative effects of aerosols, respectively. The UNIPCC AR4 estimates the 100-year GWP for methane at 25, with a value of 72 for the 20-year GWP.
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Analysis of Arctic Sediments Show that Late 20th Century Warming is Unlike Natural Variation; “Unprecedented” Change
October 25, 2009
An analysis of sediment cores from an Arctic lake indicates that biological and chemical changes occurring there are unprecedented over the past 200,000 years and likely are the result of human-caused climate change, according to a new study led by the University of Colorado at Boulder. A paper on the work was published online 19 October in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
While environmental changes at the lake over the past millennia have been shown to be tightly linked with natural causes of climate change—such as periodic, well-understood wobbles in Earth’s orbit—changes seen in the sediment cores since about 1950 indicate expected climate cooling is being overridden by human activity such as greenhouse gas emissions. The research team reconstructed past climate and environmental changes at the lake on Baffin Island using indicators that included algae, fossil insects and geochemistry preserved in sediment cores that extend back 200,000 years.
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New Study Finds Flaw in Carbon Accounting for Bioenergy, Another Contends That Indirect Land Use Change Emissions for Biofuels Will Be Up To Twice Direct Land Use Change Emissions
October 24, 2009
Thirteen scientists and land use experts conclude in a new paper that an important but fixable error in legal accounting rules used to measure compliance with carbon limits for bioenergy could undermine efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by encouraging deforestation. Their paper is published in the 23 Oct. issue of the journal Science.
A separate paper published online in Science Express by researchers from the Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole and MIT concludes that indirect land use change associated with global biofuels programs will be responsible for substantially more carbon loss (up to twice as much) than direct land use. Their model also predicts that because of predicted increases in fertilizer use, nitrous oxide emissions will be more important than carbon losses themselves in terms of warming potential.
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Melting Glaciers May Release Trapped Legacy Pollutants
| Historical trends of (A) ΣPCDD/F, (B) ΣPCB, and (C) ΣDDT in sediment from Lake Oberaar and from low-altitude lakes in Switzerland, normalized relative to their maximum historical peaks. The “second peak” for Lake Oberaar supports the hypothesis of pollutant release from melting. Credit: ACS, Bogdal et al. Click to enlarge. |
Melting glaciers in the Alps may cause severe environmental damage due to the release of pollutants which have been frozen in ice for decades, according to research by Swiss scientists. With glaciers predicted to recede further due to global warming, the resulting melt may contain chemicals which have been banned or are not widely produced any more.
Researchers from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, the Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing and Research (EMPA) and the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG) analyzed sediment layers from the high-Alpine Oberaarsee reservoir in Switzerland. The scientists were able to reconstruct the processes by which long-lived organic pollutants, organochlorine pesticides, and synthetic musk fragrances have accumulated in the ice over the last 60 years, and published their findings in the ACS journal Environmental Science and Technology.
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National Academies Report Examines Hidden Cost of Energy Production and Use in US; Estimates $120B in 2005
October 22, 2009
| Health and other non-climate damages by life-cycle component for different combinations of fuels and light-duty automobiles in 2005 (top) and 2030 (bottom). Damages are expressed in cents per VMT (2007 USD). Source: “Hidden Costs of Energy”. Click to enlarge. |
A new report from the National Research Council examines and, when possible, estimates, “hidden” costs of energy production and use—such as the damage air pollution imposes on human health—that are not reflected in market prices of coal, oil, other energy sources, or the electricity and gasoline produced from them. The report estimates dollar values for several major components of these costs.
The damages the committee was able to quantify were an estimated $120 billion in the US in 2005, a number that reflects primarily health damages from air pollution associated with electricity generation and motor vehicle transportation. That figure does not include damages from climate change, harm to ecosystems, effects of some air pollutants such as mercury, and risks to national security, which the report examines but does not monetize.
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Reducing GHG Emissions with Land Use, Transit, and Auto Pricing Policies
October 17, 2009
| Box plots of combined policy VMT reductions by time horizon. Source: Rodier 2009. Click to enlarge. |
California’s global warming legislation requires reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. The California Air Resources Board estimates that significant GHG reductions from passenger vehicles can be achieved through improvements in vehicle technology and the low carbon fuel standard; however, these reductions will not be enough to achieve 1990 levels if current trends in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) continue.
A study by Dr. Caroline Rodier at UC Davis’s Institute of Transportation Studies reviewed international modeling literature on land use, transit, and auto pricing policies to suggest a range of VMT and GHG reduction that regions might achieve if such policies were implemented.
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Marine Ecosystems Capture Carbon Emissions Equal to Near 50% of Emissions of Global Transport; UN Agencies Propose Blue Carbon Fund for Their Support
October 16, 2009
| Carbon cycle. Credit: Riccardo Pravettoni, UNEP/GRID-Arendal. Click to enlarge. |
A “Blue Carbon” fund able to invest in the maintenance and rehabilitation of key marine ecosystems should be considered by governments to combat climate change, according to a new Rapid Response Report released by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO.
The report estimates that carbon emissions equal to half the annual emissions of the global transport sector are being captured and stored by marine ecosystems such as mangroves, salt marshes and seagrasses.
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Cutting Non-CO2 Pollutants Can Delay Abrupt Climate Change; The “Fast Action” Climate Agenda
October 14, 2009
| Probability distribution for the committed warming by GHGs between 1750 and 2005. Shown are the tipping elements [large-scale components of the Earth’s system] and the temperature threshold range that initiates the tipping. From Molina et al. (2009), reproduced from Ramanathan and Feng (2008) Click to enlarge. |
A “fast-action” climate agenda including reducing non-CO2 climate change agents such as black carbon soot, tropospheric ozone, and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), as well as expanding bio-sequestration through biochar production, can forestall fast-approaching abrupt climate changes, according to Nobel Laureate Dr. Mario Molina (Chemistry, 1995) and co-authors in a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences, the authors write. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI).
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Scientists Integrate Nitrogen Cycle into Climate Model; Results Suggests Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations May End Up Higher Than Expected
October 10, 2009
| Schematic illustrating feedback pathways coupling terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycles in the integrated model. Blue arrows show, in general, the processes represented in previous carbon-only land model components. Orange arrows show the additional processes represented in the coupled carbon-nitrogen land model, differentiated here between rapid internal cycling (solid arrows), and slower fluxes between land pools, the atmosphere, and ground water (dashed arrows). Source: Thornton et al. (2009) |
A team of climate scientists from eight US national labs and academic institutions have successfully incorporated the nitrogen cycle into global simulations for climate change for the first time, questioning previous assumptions regarding carbon feedback and potentially helping to refine model forecasts about global warming.
The results illustrate the complexity of climate modeling by demonstrating how natural processes still have a strong effect on the carbon cycle and climate simulations. In this case, scientists found that the rate of climate change over the next century could be higher than previously anticipated when the requirement of plant nutrients are included in the climate model.
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Discussion Paper Suggests Mechanisms for Addressing Biofuel GHG Emissions Under Cap-and-Trade Schemes; Avoiding the “Renewability Shortcut” and Moving Toward Carbon Management for All Transportation Fuels
October 09, 2009
Including biofuels under a cap-and-trade scheme could create a more complete carbon management framework for the transportation fuels sector, according to a new peer-reviewed discussion paper by Dr. John DeCicco. DeCicco, formerly on staff at the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), is now a Senior Lecturer at the University of Michigan’s School of Natural Resources and Environment.
While including all fuels under a carbon cap is necessary for an effective climate policy, DeCicco argues, it is not sufficient for addressing all fuels-related emissions. “In particular, it fails to cover many GHG emissions during the production of biofuels and their feedstocks. It also risks emissions leakages through the interlinked fuels and agricultural commodity markets that cross the boundaries of capped and uncapped sectors both domestically and internationally. Thus, the carbon accounting system under a fossil-based cap alone is incomplete when it comes to biofuels.”
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PBL Study Finds Developed Countries’ Proposals for Copenhagen Fall Short for Reaching 2 °C Climate Objective
October 07, 2009
| The total reductions of the three scenarios used in the PBL analysis. Source: PBL. Click to enlarge. |
The current proposals by developed countries on the table for the upcoming climate negotiations in Copenhagen to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions do not yet suffice to limit global warming to a rise of 2 °C (based on a long-term 450 ppm concentration of GHG), according to a new report by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL).
Achieving the 2 °C target—agreed upon by the G8 in July—would require a reduction of 25 to 40% in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020, compared with 1990 levels, whereas the current proposals would lead to a reduction of 10 to 15%. Developed countries as a group would need to increase their reduction targets for 2020 by at least 6 to 10%, in order to keep the 2 °C objective within reach, according to PBL. The global costs would be limited to 0.2% of GDP in 2020.
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New Study Concludes Substantial Quantities of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Land-Use Change in the Boreal Forests for Oil Sands Production Are Unreported
October 03, 2009
A new study released by Global Forest Watch Canada finds that significant amounts of greenhouse gases are emitted through the disturbance and/or removal of biocarbon (trees, shrubs, peats), which overlay Alberta’s oil sands. These land-use change emissions have not previously been measured nor reported by governments and industry. The resulting analyses, maps and report give further insights into the growing impacts of oil sands development on Alberta’s and Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions.
The total area of natural ecosystems that are planned to be removed by oil sands extraction is 1,613,887 ha (20 times the size of the City of Calgary). These areas store 579 megatonnes (million tones) of biological carbon, mostly in peatlands. When the carbon in soils, peat and trees breaks down, it combines with oxygen to form carbon dioxide (CO2). As a result, 873 megatonnes of CO2 may be emitted into the atmosphere over the next 100 years under the scenario of full oil sands development. The resulting annual average emissions of 8.7 megatonnes of CO2 will substantially raise the normally-reported emissions from the oils sands industry activities.
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EPA Proposes New Rule Requiring Use of Best Available Control Technologies to Reduce GHG from Large Stationary Sources
October 01, 2009
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing a rule under the authority of the Clean Air Act that would require large industrial facilities that emit at least 25,000 tons of greenhouse gases (GHGs) a year to obtain construction and operating permits covering these emissions. The rule proposes new thresholds for GHGs that define when Clean Air Act (CAA) permits under the New Source Review (NSR) and title V operating permits programs would be required for new or modified existing industrial facilities.
The proposed thresholds would “tailor” the permit programs to limit which facilities would be required to obtain NSR and title V permits and would cover nearly 70% of the national GHG emissions that come from stationary sources, including those from the nation’s largest emitters—including power plants, refineries, and cement production facilities. Permits must demonstrate the use of best available control technologies (BACT) and energy efficiency measures to minimize GHG emissions.
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Hadley Centre: Average 4 °C Warming Could Happen Within a Human Lifetime, With Even Greater Warming in Many Regions
September 28, 2009
| Comparison of surface temperature projections from the high-end emissions scenario, without carbon cycle feedbacks. Temperature increases between 1961-1990 and 2090-2099, averaged over all high-end members. Source: Met Office. Click to enlarge. |
One of the UK’s leading climate scientists has presented new research findings on the increasing potential for a 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 °F) rise in global temperatures if the current high emissions of greenhouse gasses continue.
Dr Richard Betts, Head of Climate Impacts at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, presented the findings at a special conference called “4 degrees and beyond” at Oxford University. The conference, attended by 130 international scientists and policy specialists, is the first to consider the global consequences of climate change beyond 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 °F). 4 degrees and beyond is taking place on 28-30 September 2009 and is jointly sponsored by Oxford University’s Environmental Change Institute, the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, and the Met Office Hadley Centre.
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UN Review of Recent Climate Research Concludes That Impacts Of Climate Change Coming Faster Than Anticipated
September 25, 2009
| Significant climate anomalies 2008/2009. Source: Climate Change Compendium. Click to enlarge. |
A UN review of some 400 major scientific contributions to Earth systems and climate science released through peer-reviewed literature or from research institutions over the last three years, has found that the pace and scale of climate change may now be outstripping even the worst case predictions of the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC). (Earlier post.)
The report released by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), entitled Climate Change Science Compendium 2009, highlights new research that identifies some events thought likely to occur in longer-term time horizons as already happening or set to happen far sooner than had previously been thought.
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Airlines Present Climate Change Proposals at UN Forum; 50% Absolute Cut In Emissions by 2050 Compared to 2005
September 23, 2009
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) presented its proposals for December’s climate change talks to the UN Secretary General’s Summit on Climate Change in New York. The forum took place in the run-up to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting in Copenhagen this December. The aviation sector is united in calling on world leaders to retain a global sectoral approach to reducing aviation emissions under the leadership of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), working in cooperation with the sector through IATA.
The aviation industry presented a paper outlining the industry’s commitment to three sequential targets: 1) Improving carbon efficiency with a 1.5% average annual improvement in fuel efficiency to 2020; 2) Stabilizing emissions with carbon-neutral growth from 2020; and 3) Emissions reductions with a 50% absolute cut in emissions by 2050 compared to 2005.
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Study: Cash-for-Clunkers Programs Should Use Fuel Economy Rather Than Age to Maximize GHG Reductions
September 22, 2009
A study by researchers at UC Davis suggests that a properly designed vehicle scrappage (i.e., “Cash for Clunkers”) program could maximize greenhouse gas emissions savings by using fuel-economy based eligibility requirements rather than age-based requirements. The study presents a program framework that, at a minimum, ensures a program that offsets GHG emissions attributable to vehicle manufacturing and end-of-life disposal with use-phase emissions reductions.
The study also suggests that a long-term Cash-for-Clunkers program may be more suitable to CO2e reduction because with such a program policymakers could send a clear, long-term signal to auto manufacturers for more fuel-efficient vehicles. Considering the 4-6 year vehicle product planning, design, and introduction cycles where major retooling of automobile plants is needed, the researchers said, such longer term programs could actually induce technology changes.
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Fiat, MINI and smart Beat 130 gCO2/km New Car Average in Europe for First Half of 2009
September 20, 2009
The average CO2 emissions figure on new Fiat cars sold in Europe during the first half of 2009 dropped 5.2 g/km to 129.1 g/km, according to an analysis by JATO Consult, the bespoke consulting service of JATO Dynamics. That makes Fiat the only mainstream car brand to achieve the European average goal of 130 g/km by 2015, five years early. The MINI and smart brands also came under the 130 g/km mark.
Overall, JATO found an average 6.2 g/km reduction in the CO2 output of new cars sold by the top 25 brands in Europe in 1H 2009, with a similar reduction measured in JATO’s 21 monitored EU markets. The figures underline how incremental improvements to high-volume vehicles can have an impact that far exceeds that of low-volume hybrid or alternative fuel vehicles, JATO noted.
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EPA Report Finds Significant Opportunity to Reduce GHG Emissions Through Materials and Land Management Practices
September 19, 2009
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| US GHG emissions allocated to systems, and by materials and land management. The Land Sink, represented by the outer ring, offset the equivalent of 13% of total US anthropogenic emissions in 2006. The entire pie chart represents total US emissions in 2006; the inner portion of the pie chart represents net emissions. Greenfield development emissions are not included in the Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, and are therefore depicted outside of the pie chart. Source: EPA. Click to enlarge. |
There is great potential to reduce US greenhouse gas emissions through materials and land management practices such as recycling, waste reduction, smart growth, and by reusing formerly contaminated sites including brownfields, according to a new report by the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (OSWER).
The report uses a systems-based analysis—where each system represents and comprises all the parts of the economy working to fulfill a particular need—rather than the sector-based view consistent with international guidance that enables parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to compare the relative contribution of different emission sources and GHGs to climate change.
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Study Finds that US Subsidies for Fossil Fuels Are Almost 2.5x Those for Renewables
September 18, 2009
| US subsidies for fuels and renewable energy, 2002-2008. Nuclear was not included in the analysis. Source: Adeyeye et al. 2009. Click to enlarge. |
The vast majority of US federal subsidies for fossil fuels and renewable energy from 2002-2008 supported fossil energy sources that emit high levels of greenhouse gases when used as fuel, according to research released on Friday by the Environmental Law Institute (ELI) in partnership with the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
The study, “Estimating US Government Subsidies to Energy Sources: 2002-2008”, found that fossil fuels benefited from approximately $72 billion over the seven-year period, while subsidies for renewable fuels totaled $29 billion.
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US EPA and NHTSA Jointly Propose New Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Regulations for Vehicles
September 15, 2009
| Greenhouse gas and fuel economy levels under the EPA NHTSA joint proposed rulemaking. Click to enlarge. |
The US Department of Transportation (DOT) National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) jointly proposed a rule establishing a national program that would improve vehicle fuel economy and reduce greenhouse gases. The proposal builds upon the core principles President Obama announced in May for a harmonized national policy intended to reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for all new cars and trucks sold in the US.(Earlier post.)
In this joint rulemaking, EPA and NHTSA are proposing two separate sets of attribute-based standards applying to passenger cars, light-duty trucks, and medium-duty passenger vehicles, covering model years 2012 through 2016, each under its respective statutory authorities:
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Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Global Cities Highlights Importance of Geophysical and Technical Factors
September 07, 2009
| By including upstream emissions from fuels, GHG emissions from cities exceed those attributed to direct end-use by up to 24% (for Toronto). Tonnes CO2e/capita. Credit: ACS, Kennedy et al. 2009. Click to enlarge. |
An international study of 10 global cities found that a balance of geophysical factors (climate, access to resources, and gateway status) and technical factors (power generation, urban design, and waste processing) determine the greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) attributable to cities. Within the overall trends there are differences between cities with more or less public transit; while personal income also impacts heating and industrial fuel use.
By including upstream emissions from fuels, the researchers found that GHG emissions attributable to cities exceed those from direct end use by up to 24%. A paper on the work was published online 2 September in the ACS journal Environmental Science & Technology.
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GWU Researcher Developing Efficient Solar Chemical Process for Generation of Energetic Molecules and Conversion of CO2
September 05, 2009
| (Left) Charge and heat flow in the STEP system. Colored arrows indicate the direction of heat flow (yellow arrows), electron flow (blue), and reagent flow (green). (Right) Auxiliary components to reach higher STEP temperatures and/or decrease the heat incident on the PV. Light harvesting can use various optical concentrators and beam splitters can redirect sub-bandgap radiation away from the PV onto the electrolyzer. Licht, 2009. Click to enlarge. |
Dr. Stuart Licht (earlier post) at George Washington University is developing a solar-driven process that, he says, could efficiently replace current industrial processes for the production of certain energetic molecules such as hydrogen, metals and chlorine, which are responsible for a large component of anthropogenic CO2. It can also convert captured anthropogenic CO2, generated by burning fossil fuels, to CO and O2 via high-temperature electrolysis. A paper on his work is in press for the ACS’ Journal of Physical Chemistry, C.
One third of the global industrial sector’s annual emission of 1x1010 metric tons of CO2 is released in the production of metals and chlorine. This, together with the additional CO2 from electrical generation, heating and transportation, comprise the majority of CO2 emissions.
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MIT Researchers Elucidate Model for Escape of Underground Methane in Frozen Regions; Current Rate of Escape May be Much Faster Than Earlier Believed
September 03, 2009
| Left: underground methane gas as it begins to invade fine-grain sediment (shown in yellow) by creating a fracture. Right: the blue circles represent pore spaces where the gas has invaded. Graphic / Ruben Juanes, MIT. Click to enlarge. |
Researchers at MIT have elucidated how underground methane in frozen regions—e.g., gas hydrate accumulations in ocean sediments and permafrost—escapes. Their findings, published online 29 August in the AGU Journal of Geophysical Research, also suggest that methane trapped under the ocean may already be escaping through vents in the sea floor at a much faster rate than previously believed.
Some scientists have associated the release, both gradual and fast, of subsurface ocean methane with climate change of the past and future. Methane is about 21 times more powerful at warming the atmosphere than carbon dioxide (CO2) by weight (see box below), according to the US EPA.
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National Research Council Study: More Compact Development Could Reduce VMT, Fuel Use and CO2 Emissions Anywhere from Less than 1% to 11%
September 02, 2009
Increasing the population and employment density in metropolitan areas could reduce vehicle travel, energy use, and CO2 emissions anywhere from less than 1% up to 11% by 2050 compared to a base case for household vehicle usage, according to a new report from the National Research Council. The reductions depend on the extent to which current development patterns could be reversed, and some members of the study committee disagreed on the plausibility of achieving the higher estimate.
Requested by Congress and funded by the US Department of Energy, Special Report 298: Driving and the Built Environment: The Effects of Compact Development on Motorized Travel, Energy Use, and CO2 Emissions examines the relationship between land development patterns, often referred to as the built environment, and motor vehicle travel in the United States.
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NOAA Study Identifies Nitrous Oxide as Top Ozone-Depleting Emission in 21st Century
August 28, 2009
| Comparison of annual N2O ODP-weighted emissions from the 1990s with emissions of other ODS in 1987 and in 2008. Even at the height of ODS emissions in the 1980s, annual anthropogenic N2O emissions were the fourth most significant. Currently, anthropogenic N2O emissions represent the largest contribution to ozone depletion. Source: Ravishankara et al. 2009. Click to enlarge. |
Nitrous oxide (N2O) has become the most important ozone-depleting substance (ODS) emitted through human activities, and is expected to remain the largest throughout the 21st century, according to a new study by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). N2O is unregulated by the Montreal Protocol.
The study, published online 27 August in the journal Science, for the first time evaluated nitrous oxide emissions from human activities in terms of their potential impact on Earth’s ozone layer. As chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which have been phased out by international agreement, ebb in the atmosphere, nitrous oxide will remain a significant ozone-destroyer, the study found.
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New Report Concludes That Real Costs of Adapting to Climate Change Will Likely Be At Least 2-3X Greater Than Current Estimates
August 27, 2009
| Representation of damage from climate change avoided by adaptation, and damage not be adapted to (‘residual damage’) over the longer term. Source: “Assessing the costs...” In Click to enlarge. |
Scientists led by a former co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are warning warn that the UN negotiations aimed at tackling climate change are based on substantial underestimates of what it will cost to adapt to its impacts.
The real costs of adaptation are likely to be at least 2-3 times greater than estimates made by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), say Professor Martin Parry and colleagues in a new report published by the International Institute for Environment and Development and the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London. Parry co-chaired the IPCC working group on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation between 2002 and 2008.
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Converting Oil Shale to Gasoline via Alberta Taciuk Processor Results in Full Fuel Cycle GHG Emissions 1.5-1.75 Larger Than From Conventionally Produced Gasoline
August 25, 2009
| GHG emissions for ATP shale (low and high cases) and conventional gasoline in grams of CO2e per MJ of final fuel delivered. Credit: ACS. Click to enlarge. |
Converting oil shale to gasoline via the Alberta Taciuk Processor (ATP)—an above-ground shale retort—results in fuel-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of ~130-150 g CO2 equivalent/MJ of gasoline produced, according to a new analysis by Dr. Adam Brandt at Stanford University. These emissions are 1.5 to 1.75 times larger than emissions from conventionally produced gasoline.
The results depend most sensitively on the grade of shale used, and the rate of carbonate mineral decomposition which causes inorganic CO2 release, reports Brandt in a paper published online 25 August in the ACS journal Energy & Fuels.
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Reducing Black Carbon Emissions and Ground-Level Ozone Would Provide Immediate Benefit Against Climate Change
August 21, 2009
Reducing emissions of black carbon soot and ground-level ozone would quickly make a considerable dent in the climate change problem and would also contribute to public health and protect crop yields, according to an essay in the September/October issue of Foreign Affairs.
The piece was co-authored by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego climate and atmospheric scientist V. Ramanathan and Jessica Seddon Wallack, director of the Center for Development Finance at the Institute for Financial Management and Research in Chennai, India.
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ACS Meeting Symposium Focuses on Conversion and Utilization of CO2 for Fuels and Chemicals
August 16, 2009
Researchers at the US Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) led off a day-long symposium on advances in CO2 conversion and utilization being held at the 238th American Chemical Society (ACS) national meeting, which began today in Washington, DC. The NRL researchers presented their progress in hydrogenating CO2 to jet fuel via a two-stage, high-yield and highly selective synthesis process. (Earlier post.)
Robert Dorner and his colleagues are looking at converting CO2 and hydrogen (both won from sea-water) over catalysts, using the CO2 as a building block to form synthetic fuel. This reaction is energetically not favored and thus a catalyst is needed, which will lower the energy barrier of the reaction and increase the rate at which it occurs. The energy utilized to convert CO2 and hydrogen is also harvested from the ocean, by taking advantage of the temperature gradient of the water with increasing depth, making the fuel CO2-neutral.
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PPIC Survey Finds Californians’s Support for Policies to Curb Warming Slips With Economy and Budget Crisis; Partisan Split Widens
August 14, 2009
Solid majorities of Californians favor state policies to curb global warming, according to a survey by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) with support from The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. But in a year that has seen both a worsening recession and state budget crisis, residents’ support for urgent action on climate change has slipped and a partisan divide on the issue has widened.
Most residents (66%) support the 2006 California law (AB 32) that requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to 1990 levels by 2020. Support has declined 7 points from July 2008 (73%) and 12 points from 2007 (78%). The decline is sharpest among Republicans (57% 2008, 43% today). However, Californians across party lines favor the requirement that automakers reduce emissions from new cars (90% Democrats, 81% independents, 55% Republicans).
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EIA Projects 5% Decrease in Fossil-Fuel-Based CO2 Emissions in 2009; Little Change in Emissions from Gasoline
August 12, 2009
| US CO2 emissions growth. Source: EIA STEO. Click to enlarge. |
In its current version of the Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the US Energy Information Administration projects a 5% decline in fossil-fuel-based CO2 emissions in 2009. The decrease was driven by the economic downturn, combined with a significant switch from coal to natural gas as a source of electricity generation, according to the EIA.
For 2008, the EIA reported a 3.2% decrease in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in 2008. An improving economy is expected to increase CO2 emissions from fossil fuels by 0.7% in 2010.
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EC Publishes 6 Calls for Proposals for Transport Research within the Seventh Framework Program; €63M for European Green Cars Initiative and Electromobility
August 01, 2009
The European Commission has published 53 calls for proposals in various thematic areas of the Seventh Research Framework Program (FP7), including six calls for transport with funding of approximately €243 million (US$344 million). Within that, projects for the European Green Cars Inititative are to receive an indicative (i.e., the actual sum of the awards may vary) €63 million (US$89 million).
Calls for also went out for proposals in health; food, agriculture and fisheries, and biotechnology; information and communication technologies; nanosciences, nanotechnologies, materials and new production technologies; energy; environment (including climate change); socio-economic sciences and humanities; space; and security.
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Study Finds That Implementation of a Portfolio of Transportation Strategies Will Be Required for Significant Reductions in GHG from Transportation Sector; Pricing Strategies Have the Largest Potential
July 29, 2009
| Projected cumulative greenhouse gas reductions from 2010-2050 by strategy category under maximum deployment scenario. Data: Moving Cooler. Click to enlarge. |
Although innovations in vehicle and fuel technology will have a substantial effect on reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transportation in the US, those gains will largely be offset by increases in travel along with growth in the US population, according to a new report from transportation consultancy Cambridge Systematics. Achieving significant GHG reductions will thus require application of a complete portfolio of strategies targeting travel activity and vehicle and systems operations, the report finds.
In an analysis of a set of such strategies grouped into nine categories and three different levels of implementation (extension of current efforts, aggressive and maximum), the report found that the maximum effort deployment—excluding economy-wide pricing strategies—could achieve annual greenhouse gas reductions of up to 24% by 2050 from the calculated baseline. Strong economy-wide pricing measures (such as a $5.00 per gallon fuel tax by 2050) could result in an additional reduction of 28% in GHG emissions.
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Study Provides Evidence That Low-Level Clouds Act as Positive Feedback to Climate Change
July 26, 2009
| Time series of annual mean values of cloud and climate quantities averaged over the NE Pacific. (A) COADS cloud data. (B) ISCCP cloud data. (C) COADS SST data. (D) Hadley Centre SLP data. Clement et al. (2009), Science. Click to enlarge. |
Low-level stratiform clouds—which play an important climatic role because of their net cooling effect on the global climate—appear to dissipate as the ocean warms, thereby enhancing the warming (i.e., a positive feedback), according to a new study of the NE Pacific by researchers from the University of Miami and UC San Diego. Their paper was published in the 24 July issue of the journal Science.
The study identified decadal fluctuations in cloud cover in multiple, independent cloud data sets. Changes in cloud cover appeared to be linked to changes in both local temperature and large-scale circulation and indicated that clouds act as a positive feedback in this region on decadal time scales. The researchers also found that only one of 18 major global climate models accurately reproduced the observed cloud behavior. That model simulated a reduction in cloud cover over much of the Pacific when greenhouse gases were increased, providing modeling evidence for a positive low-level cloud feedback.
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Study Concludes Colorado River Reservoirs Could Bottom Out from Warming, Water Management Business-as-Usual
July 20, 2009
| Colorado River Basin including major dams. Inset (a) shows water demand and losses and supply. Pink: 9-year moving average of the natural flow above Imperial Dam, AZ. Blue: 9-year moving average of the total consumptive use in the Lower and Upper basin. Inset (b) shows 5-year moving average of paleo reconstructed flows at Lees Ferry, AZ. The red line is the natural flow from the observational period. Source: AGU. Click to enlarge. |
All reservoirs along the Colorado River might dry up by mid-century as the West warms, according to a new study led by researchers at the University of Colorado, Boulder. The probability of such a severe shortage by then runs as high as one-in-two, unless current water-management practices change, the researchers report in a paper to be published in the American Geophysical Union (AGU) journal Water Resources Research.
The study’s coauthors looked at the effects of a range of reductions in Colorado River stream flow on future reservoir levels and at the implications of different management strategies. Even under the harshest drying caused by climate change, the large storage capacity of reservoirs on the Colorado might help sustain water supply for a few decades. However, new water management approaches are critical to minimize the chances of fully depleting reservoir storage by mid-century.
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Researchers Find that CO2 Forcing Alone Doesn’t Explain Magnitude of Ancient Global Warming Episode
July 15, 2009
By analyzing data from deep-sea sediment cores to study an ancient global warming episode (the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, PETM), researchers found a less-than two-fold increase (70%) in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels corresponding to the 5–9 °C (9-16 °F) warming of the PETM. Based on current knowledge and models of the Earth’s climate system, they had expected to find a three- to eight-fold increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to drive that amount of warming.
In a paper published online in the journal Nature Geoscience, the team, led by Richard Zeebe of the University of Hawai‘i at Manoa’s School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, suggests that in addition to direct CO2 forcing, other processes and/or feedbacks that are hitherto unknown must have caused a substantial portion of the warming during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum.
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New Molecule Could Lead to New CO2 Capture Methods
| An unusual bowl-shaped molecule that pulls carbon dioxide out of the air may provide new possibilities for dealing with global warming. The CO3-2 group is shown in the center. Credit: ACS. Click to enlarge. |
The accidental discovery of a bowl-shaped molecule that pulls carbon dioxide out of the air suggests new possibilities for dealing with global warming, including genetically engineering microbes to manufacture those CO2 “catchers,” according to a report scheduled for the 3 August issue of the ACS journal Inorganic Chemistry.
J. A. Tossell of the University of Maryland notes in the new study that other researchers (Brooks 2006) discovered the molecule—a macrocyclic amidourea—while doing work unrelated to global climate change.
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UK Publishes Strategy for Low Carbon Transport
The UK’s Department for Transport has published a strategy designed to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide from the transport sector by around 14% (17.7 million tonnes) by 2020 compared to 2008.
The document, entitled “Low carbon transport: a greener future”, also frames the debate for a longer-term decarbonization of transport to give people and businesses more low-carbon choices about when, where and how to travel or transport goods. Transport currently makes up 21% of all UK domestic carbon emissions. The Carbon Reduction Strategy for Transport is based on three main themes:
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New NASA Satellite Survey Reveals Dramatic Arctic Sea Ice Thinning
July 08, 2009
| ICESat measurements of winter multi-year ice cover in the Arctic Ocean between 2004 and 2008, along with the corresponding downward trend in overall winter sea ice volume, and switch in dominant ice type from multi-year ice to first-year ice. Credit: Ron Kwok, NASA/JPL. Click to enlarge. |
Arctic sea ice thinned dramatically between the winters of 2004 and 2008, with thin seasonal ice replacing thick older ice as the dominant type for the first time on record. The new results, based on data from a NASA Earth-orbiting spacecraft, provide further evidence for the rapid, ongoing transformation of the Arctic’s ice cover.
Scientists from NASA and the University of Washington in Seattle conducted the most comprehensive survey to date using observations from NASA’s Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) to make the first basin-wide estimate of the thickness and volume of the Arctic Ocean’s ice cover. Ron Kwok of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., led the research team, which published its findings July 7 in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans.
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Study Finds Carbon in Frozen Soils 2X Prior Estimates; Permafrost Melt Poses Major Climate Change Threat
July 01, 2009
| Carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost region. Source: CSIRO. Click to enlarge. |
New research shows that the amount of carbon stored in frozen soils in the Arctic and boreal regions of the world is more than double previous estimates and could, if emitted as carbon dioxide and methane, lead to a significant increase in global temperatures by the end of this century. The new estimate is more than 1.5 trillion tons of frozen carbon, about twice as much carbon as contained in the atmosphere.
In a paper published in the latest edition of the AGU journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles, an international team of researchers from the US, Australia, Canada, Sweden and Russia say that the frozen high-latitude soils have the potential to release vast quantities of carbon and methane into the atmosphere and subsequently influence carbon-climate feedbacks.
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EPA Grants California Vehicle GHG Regulations Waiver
June 30, 2009
The US Environmental Agency (EPA) has granted California’s waiver request enabling the state to enforce its greenhouse gas emissions standards (Pavley I) for new motor vehicles, beginning with the current model year. According to evidence submitted by California during the waiver process, an EPA official said, automakers are currently already in compliance with the MY2009 Pavley requirement, and are tracking to compliance for 2010.
In September 2004 the California Air Resources Board (ARB) passed regulations to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) from new passenger vehicles starting in 2009. These regulations were authorized by the 2002 legislation Assembly Bill 1493 (Pavley). California requested from EPA the waiver required for implementation of the Pavley regulations in December 2005. The request was subsequently denied in December 2007.
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DoD Researchers Work to Increase the Production of Higher Chain Hydrocarbons from CO2 Using a Traditional Fischer-Tropsch Catalyst
June 27, 2009
Researchers at the US Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the Center for Applied Energy Research at the University of Kentucky are investigating the hydrogenation of CO2 using a conventional Fischer-Tropsch cobalt catalyst for the production of valuable hydrocarbon materials.
Other studies have shown the ability to convert CO2 primarily to methane with a distribution of other hydrocarbons (earlier post as one example). The focus of this work, reported online 25 June in the ACS journal Energy & Fuels, is to attempt to improve the production distribution toward higher chain hydrocarbons (HCs) and increase conversion rates using conventional Fischer-Tropsch catalysts (Co-Pt/Al2O3).
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Annual Increase in Global CO2 Emissions Halved in 2008; Decrease in Fossil Oil Consumption, Increase in Renewables Share
June 26, 2009
| Global CO2 emissions from fuel use and cement production by region. Source: PBL. Click to enlarge. |
Very high oil prices up to the summer of 2008, together with a worldwide financial crisis have caused a halving of the annual increase in global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from consumption of oil, coal and gas, and from cement production, according to preliminary estimates by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), using recently published energy data from BP.
Emissions increased by 1.7% in 2008, against 3.3% in 2007. Since 2002, the average annual increase was almost 4%. In addition to high oil prices and the financial crisis, the increased use of new renewable energy sources, such as biofuels for road transport and wind energy for electricity generation, had a noticeable and mitigating impact on CO2 emissions.
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California Adopts Cooler Cars Regulation
| Infrared reflective glass is the more efficient—and costly—technology for reducing vehicle cabin temperature. Click to enlarge. |
The California Air Resources Board adopted a regulation that will require new cars sold in California starting in 2012 to have windows that reflect or absorb heat-producing rays from the sun. This will help keep cars cooler, increase their fuel efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Cooler cars mean less air conditioning thereby increasing fuel efficiency and preventing about 700,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide from entering the atmosphere in 2020—roughly the equivalent of taking 140,000 cars off the road for a year.
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Study: Hydrofluorocarbons Will Contribute Significantly to Global Warming by 2050
June 23, 2009
| Global ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and HFC emissions (A), global CO2 and HFC emissions (B), and ODS, HFC, and CO2 global RF (C) for the period 2000–2050. Velders et al. (2009) Click to enlarge. |
The contribution of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) to global warming by 2050 will be more than that of current global CO2 emissions from houses and office buildings, according to a study by team of scientists from a the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), DuPont Fluoroproducts, and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
These HFCs, gases used in refrigerators and air conditioners, are substitutes for ozone-depleting gases, but they are also strong greenhouse gases. Their contribution to global warming is currently small, but can increase to the equivalent of 9-19% (CO2-eq. basis) of projected global CO2 emissions in business-as-usual scenarios by 2050. This percentage increases to 28–45% compared with projected CO2 emissions in a 450-ppm CO2 stabilization scenario.
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Proposed US Transportation Reauthorization Plan Links Greenhouse Gas Reductions to Transportation Planning
June 21, 2009
Among the proposals in the new US highway and transportation funding reauthorization bill, outlined by House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure Chairman James L. Oberstar (D-Minn.) and Ranking Member John L. Mica (R-Fla.) in a press conference last week, is the linkage of transportation planning with greenhouse gas emissions reductions. If enacted, this would transform the current transportation planning process in the US.
As described in a summary of the proposed bill published by the Committee, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in consultation with the Department of Transportation (DOT), would establish national transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals.
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US Global Change Research Program Issues Report on Impacts of Climate Change in US; Details Point to Potential Value of Early, Aggressive Action
June 17, 2009
| Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now in the US and are expected to increase. Source: USGCRP. Click to enlarge. |
Climate change is already having visible impacts in the United States, and the choices we make now will determine the severity of its impacts in the future, according to the final release of the report “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States”. A product of the interagency US Global Change Research Program, the 190-page report was commissioned in 2007 and completed this spring.
Produced by a consortium of experts from 13 US government science agencies and from several major universities and research institutes, many of whom are also involved in the UN IPCC process, the report compiles years of scientific research and incorporates new data not available during the preparation of previous large national and global assessments.
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Researchers Predict Permafrost Thaw Will Intensify Climate Change More Quickly Than Previously Thought; Melting of Greenland Icesheet Could Drive More Water Than Previously Thought to North American Northeast
May 28, 2009
| As areas with permafrost thaw and more old carbon is released, the carbon balance changes. Credit: Zina Deretsky, National Science Foundation. Click to enlarge. |
Permafrost thaw will make potentially significant contributions to atmospheric concentrations of carbon more rapidly that previously thought, according to a new study published in the 28 May issue of the journal Nature.
A separate study led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), which is being published 29 May in Geophysical Research Letters, concluded that the melting of the Greenland ice sheet this century may drive more water than previously thought toward the already threatened coastlines of New York, Boston, Halifax, and other cities in the northeastern United States and Canada.
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US EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 44% Between 2006 and 2030, CO2 Emissions Up by 39%
May 27, 2009
| Projected growth in world carbon dioxide emissions. Source: IEO2009. Click to enlarge. |
World marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 44% between 2006 and 2030, driven by strong long-term economic growth in the developing nations of the world, according to the reference case projection from the International Energy Outlook 2009 (IEO2009) released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
World carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 29.0 billion metric tons in 2006 to 33.1 billion metric tons in 2015 and 40.4 billion metric tons in 2030—an increase of 39% over the projection period. The IEO2009 reference case does not include specific policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions
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Washington Governor Issues Executive Order Directing State Actions to Reduce Greenhouse Gases; Consideration of California Low Carbon Fuel Standard and Highway Electrification
May 24, 2009
Washington Gov. Chris Gregoire issued an executive order directing a variety of state actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions including continued participation in the Western Climate Initiative to develop a regional greenhouse has emissions reduction program; an increase in transportation and fuel-conservation options including a low-carbon fuel standard; and the pursuit of the electrification of the interstate highway and associated metro centers.
Gregoire issued her executive order, entitled “Washington’s Leadership on Climate Change,” after testifying at the US Environmental Protection Agency’s public hearing in Seattle on the regulation of greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. The order contains a number of directives specifically for the Department of Ecology and the Department of Transportation.
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US Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Declined by 2.8% in 2008; Transportation-Related Emissions Down 5.2%
May 20, 2009
| Energy-related CO2 emissions declined by 2.8% in 2008. Source: EIA. Click to enlarge. |
US carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels decreased by 2.8% in 2008 to 5,802 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (MMTCO2), down from 5,967 MMTCO2 in 2007, according to preliminary estimates released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This is the largest annual decline in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions since EIA began annual reporting on greenhouse gas emissions.
Transportation-related emissions, which account for about a third of total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, decreased by 5.2% in 2008. Since 1990 the next largest yearly decline in the transportation sector was 1.3% in 1991. Only one other year in the 1990 to 2008 time period experienced a decline: 1.2% in 2001.
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Stanford Professor Urges EPA to Include Black Carbon in Endangerment Finding
May 18, 2009
In testimony for the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) public hearing (earlier post) on the proposed endangerment finding for greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act (earlier post), Stanford Professor Mark Jacobson urged the EPA to include black carbon in the finding.
Black carbon—soot—is a global-warming agent the immediate control of which will slow the demise of Arctic sea ice faster than will control of any other global-warming agent, Jacobson said. Jacobson first showed in 2000 that black carbon was the second-leading cause of global warming after carbon dioxide in terms of radiative forcing and, in 2002, that its control was the most effective method of slowing warming. In 2007, Jacobson and four colleagues testified in the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform on the role of black carbon. (Earlier post.)
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GM Quantifies CO2 and Fuel Consumption Reductions Via E-REVs And PHEVs, As Compared To “Conventional” Hybrids
May 16, 2009
by Jack Rosebro
| Energy sources, paths, storage media, and propulsion systems available or in development. “FCEV” refers to all fuel cell vehicles, including E-REVs and fuel cell hybrids. Adapted from Tate et al. (2009). Click to enlarge. |
General Motors has released a white paper that evaluates the CO2 reduction potential of extended-range electric vehicles (E-REVs) as well as plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), in combination with multiple vehicle charging scenarios, as compared to conventional hybrids. The paper was presented by authors Ed Tate and Peter Savagian at last month’s SAE 2009 World Congress in Detroit.
In the paper, the GM team broke down CO2 and fuel consumption reduction potentials into several categories:
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Study Finds Bioelectricity Better Option Than Liquid Biofuels for Transportation Output and GHG Emissions
May 08, 2009
| Kilometers per crop hectare for switchgrass feedstock with a small SUV. Campbell et al. (2009) Click to enlarge. |
A new life cycle assessment comparing the performance of bioelectricity and ethanol from a variety of pathways with respect to transportation kilometers and GHG offsets achieved per unit area of biofuels cropland concludes that bioelectricity used to charge a battery electric vehicle outperforms ethanol for a combustion engine across a range of feedstocks, conversion technologies, and vehicle classes.
The study by University of California, Merced, Assistant Professor Elliott Campbell along with Christopher Field of the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology and David Lobell of Stanford University, found that bioelectricity produces an average 81% more transportation kilometers and 108% more emissions offsets per unit area cropland than cellulosic ethanol. A paper on the work appeared in the 8 May issue of the journal Science.
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Study Finds That Plankton Blooms Do Not Send Atmospheric Carbon to the Deep Ocean; Weakens Iron Fertilization as Geo-Engineering Approach
May 07, 2009
| Bishop and Wood with a recent version of the Carbon Explorer float. Photo: Roy Kaltschmidt, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Click to enlarge. |
Oceanographers Jim Bishop and Todd Wood of the US Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory have measured the fate of carbon particles originating in plankton blooms in the Southern Ocean, using data that deep-diving Carbon Explorer floats collected around the clock for well over a year. Their study reveals that most of the carbon from lush plankton blooms never reaches the deep ocean.
The results weaken the applicability of the simplest version of the Iron Hypothesis as a geo-engineering approach to climate change. Iron Hypothesis adherents suggest global warming can be slowed or even reversed by fertilizing plankton with iron in regions that are iron-poor but rich in other nutrients like nitrogen, silicon, and phosphorus. The Southern Ocean is one of the most important such regions.
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EPA Proposes New Regulations for Renewable Fuel Standard to Implement Requirements of EISA; GHG Reduction and Indirect Land Use Change Effects Included
May 05, 2009
| Example of results from EPA lifecycle analyses in the NPRM. Emissions for select fuel pathways for the two time horizon/discount rate approaches. (See below.) Click to enlarge. |
The US Environmental Protection Agency released its expected Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) detailing the implementation of changes to the existing Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS1) as required by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA). The proposed rulemaking for RFS2 establishes new specific volume standards for cellulosic biofuel, biomass-based diesel, advanced biofuel, and total renewable fuel that must be used in transportation fuel each year. (Earlier post.)
The revised statutory requirements for RFS2 also include new definitions and criteria for both renewable fuels and the feedstocks used to produce them, including new greenhouse gas emission (GHG) thresholds for renewable fuels and the incorporation of indirect land use change effects.
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Study Concludes That to Limit Global Warming to 2 °C, Less Than 25% of Proven Fossil Fuel Reserves Can be Burnt Between Now and 2050
April 29, 2009
| The theme of the current issue of Nature is that the climate situation may be even worse than you think. |
Less than a quarter of the proven fossil fuel reserves can be burnt and emitted between now and 2050, if global warming is to be limited to two degrees Celsius (2 °C), according to a new study published in the journal Nature today. This issue of Nature—themed “The Coming Climate Crunch”—features a number of related papers and commentary on greenhouse gas emissions and the difficulty of cutting back, as well as an editorial calling on commitment from “the highest levels” to make the needed changes.
The study, led by Malte Meinshausen at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), calculated how much greenhouse gas emissions can be pumped into the atmosphere between now and 2050 to have a reasonable chance of keeping warming lower than 2 °C (above pre-industrial levels)—a goal supported by more than 100 countries to prevent dangerous climate change.
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ADB Study Finds Annual Economic Losses in Southeast Asia from Climate Change Could be More Than Twice the Global Average
April 27, 2009
Southeast Asia, one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate change—due to its long coastlines, high concentration of population and economic activity in coastal areas, and heavy reliance on agriculture, natural resources, and forestry—is likely to suffer more from climate change than the global average, according to a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) study, titled The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review.
The mean cost of cost of climate change for the four countries—Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam—under a “business-as-usual” scenario and if market and non-market impacts and catastrophic risks are all considered could be equivalent to losing 6.7% of combined gross domestic product (GDP) each year by 2100, more than twice the projected global average loss.
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California Adopts Low Carbon Fuel Standard, with Indirect Land Use Change Effects for Biofuels
April 24, 2009
| The LCFS is an important component in California’s effort to reduce transportation GHG. Source: ARB. Click to enlarge. |
At its meeting on Thursday, the California Air Resources Board adopted a regulation that will implement Governor Schwarzenegger’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (earlier post) calling for at least a 10% reduction from 2006 levels in the carbon intensity (measured in gCO2e/MJ) of California’s transportation fuels by 2020. When fully implemented, ARB projects that this regulation will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by about 15 million metric tons a year (CO2 equivalent).
The regulation also levies the calculation of Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) effects against biofuels, against the opposition (earlier post) of the biofuels industry.
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CO2 and Methane Emissions Continued Rise in 2008 Despite Economic Slump
| Anthropogenic atmospheric CO2, fossil fuel emissions, world GDP, and world population for the past century. CO2 data from Antarctic ice cores (green points), Mauna Loa Observatory (red curve), and the global network (blue dots). Credit: NOAA. Click to enlarge. |
Emissions of two of the most important climate change gases increased last year, according to a preliminary analysis for NOAA’s annual greenhouse gas index, which tracks data from 60 sites around the world.
Researchers measured an additional 16.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2)—a byproduct of fossil fuel burning—and 12.2 million tons of methane in the atmosphere at the end of December 2008. This increase is despite the global economic downturn, with its decrease in a wide range of activities that depend on fossil fuel use.
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California Energy Commission Adopts $176M Green Transportation Plan
April 23, 2009
The California Energy Commission has adopted the state’s first transportation Investment Plan. The Alternative and Renewable Fuels and Vehicle Technology Program’s Investment Plan allocates $176 million over the next two years to stimulate green transportation projects and encourage innovation to help meet the state’s aggressive climate change policies.
The Alternative and Renewable Fuels Vehicle Technology Program was established by Assembly Bill 118 (Núñez, Chapter 750, Statutes of 2007) and is an essential element of the California's climate change and energy policies. The state is aggressively working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, decrease petroleum fuel use to 15% below 2003 levels by 2020, and increase alternative fuel use to 20% by 2020.
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Water Levels Dropping in Some of the World’s Major Rivers
April 22, 2009
| The change in runoff inferred from streamflow records worldwide between 1948 and 2004, with bluish colors indicating more streamflow and reddish colors less. The white land areas indicate inland-draining basins or regions for which there are insufficient data to determine the runoff trends. (Graphic courtesy Journal of Climate, modified by UCAR.) Click to enlarge. |
Rivers in some of the world’s most populous regions are losing water, according to a comprehensive study of global stream flows. The research, led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo., suggests that the reduced flows in many cases are associated with climate change, and could potentially threaten future supplies of food and water.
The results will be published 15 May in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate. The research was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF), NCAR’s sponsor.
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Group of Scientists and Economists Urge Inclusion of Indirect Land Use Change Effects for Biofuels and All Transportation Fuels in California LCFS
April 21, 2009
More than 170 scientists and economists have sent a letter to California Air Resources Board (ARB) Chairman Mary Nichols urging the board to account for greenhouse gas emissions from indirect land use change for biofuels and all other transportation fuels under the state’s proposed low carbon fuel standard (LCFS). The signatories include nine members of the National Academies of Science and two Nobel laureates.
During its meeting on 23-24 April, the Board will consider the adoption of the LCFS, which requires a 10% reduction in the carbon intensity (measured in gCO2e/MJ) of transportation fuels in California by 2020.
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Study: Increasing CO2 and Decreasing O2 Will Result in Significant Expansion of Oceanic Dead Zones, With “Severe Effects” on Marine Animals
April 18, 2009
New calculations made by marine chemists from the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI) suggest that low-oxygen “dead zones” in the ocean will expand significantly over the next century, with severe effects on marine animals.
Concentrations of carbon dioxide are increasing rapidly in the Earth’s atmosphere, primarily because of human activities. About one third of the carbon dioxide that humans produce by burning fossil fuels is being absorbed by the world’s oceans, gradually causing seawater to become more acidic. However, such ocean acidification is not the only way that carbon dioxide can harm marine animals.
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EPA Issues Proposed Endangerment Finding for Greenhouse Gases; Proposed Cause or Contribute Finding Identifies Motor Vehicles as Contributing Source
April 17, 2009
After a thorough scientific review ordered in 2007 by the US Supreme Court, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a proposal with two distinct findings regarding greenhouse gases. (Earlier post.) The endangerment finding proposes that the current and projected concentrations of the mix of six key greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)—in the atmosphere threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations. The issuance of an endangerment finding enables the regulation of greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act.
The proposed cause or contribute finding concludes that that the combined emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and HFCs from new motor vehicles and motor vehicle engines contribute to the atmospheric concentrations of these key greenhouse gases and hence to the threat of climate change. Combined with the endangerment finding, this enables the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles under the Clean Air Act.
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UK Government Launches £250M 5-Year Plan for Cutting CO2 from Road Transport; Includes Incentives for Purchase of PHEVs and EVs
April 16, 2009
| High-level technology roadmap for the UK’s decarbonization of road transport. Click to enlarge. |
The UK Transport and Business Secretaries launched the Government’s vision for cutting carbon from road transport over the next five years. Central to the £250-million (US$373-million) strategy is a consumer incentive initiative for plug-in vehicles worth £2,000 - £5,000 (US$3,000 - US$7,500) towards buying the first electric and plug-in hybrid cars when they hit the showrooms, expected to be from 2011 onwards.
The strategy also includes plans to provide £20 million (US$30 million) for charging points and related infrastructure to help develop a network of “electric car cities” throughout the UK and an expansion of an electric and ultra-low carbon car demonstration project on the UK’s roads. The demonstration project will involve more than 200 motorists throughout the country.
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Researchers Develop Process for Conversion of CO2 to Methanol Under Mild Conditions
| IBN researchers demonstrated their CO2 reduction process with dry air from a balloon, as well as a compressed air supply. Click to enlarge. |
Researchers at Singapore’s Institute of Bioengineering and Nanotechnology (IBN) have developed a catalytic process for the conversion of CO2 to methanol under mild conditions (room temperature). A paper on the work was published in the 20 April issue of the journal Angewandte Chemie International Edition, where it was designated a “Hot Paper.”
The IBN researchers, led by Dr. Yugen Zhang, reduced CO2 with silane using a stable N-hetereocyclic carbene (NHC) organocatalyst. The organocatalyst is more efficient and stable, even in the presence of oxygen, than transition-metal catalysts for this reaction, the researchers found. As a result, the CO2 reduction action can take place under mild conditions in dry air.
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Black Carbon Reduces Springtime Eurasian Snow Cover Almost as Much as CO2
April 11, 2009
In another study highlighting the role of black carbon particles in global warming (earlier post), a team of researchers has found that emissions from black carbon (BC) and organic matter (OM) drive springtime (March-May) melting in Eurasia nearly as much (95%) as anthropogenic CO2. The study was published in 7 April in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Eurasia includes the Hindu-Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau, which is the headwaters for most of the major rivers in Asia.
The study by researchers from the National Center for Atmospheric Research; University of California, Irvine; Cornell University; University of Utah; and Scripps Institute of Oceanography, University of California-San Diego, also found that 21 out of 22 climate models that contributed to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report underpredicted the rapid observed warming in this area of .64 °C since 1979.
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Study Finds That CO2 Standards for Vehicles Can Reduce Price of Oil
April 10, 2009
| Car fleet composition in the EU under the different scenarios. Click to enlarge. |
A new study by the French institute Enerdata, commissioned by the European Federation for Transport & Environment (T&E), suggests that the European CO2 standards for new vehicles due to come into effect in 2012 will lead not only to a European savings on oil (mainly via lower oil import volumes) but also to slightly lower global oil prices. Enerdata concluded that a 0.9% reduction in global oil consumption results in a drop in global oil prices of 1.2%.
Most analyses of the economic assessments of energy efficiency measures normally use fixed oil prices when accounting for economic benefits. By working out that the price of oil will fall when the EU’s regulations fully take effect, the study suggests that the European economic benefits of fuel efficiency have been underestimated, in general by up to 17%, according to T&E.
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Manitoba Vehicle Standards Advisory Board Recommends Adopting California GHG Vehicle Standards and Supporting Complementary Programs
April 07, 2009
The Manitoba, Canada Vehicle Standards Advisory Board has recommended that the province adopt the California Pavley standards for regulating greenhouse gas emissions from passenger vehicles, albeit as a deferred recommendation bounded by several contingencies and factoring in the small size of the Manitoba market (2.8% and 0.26% of the Canadian and North American new car market respectively).
In its report, Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Passenger Vehicles in Manitoba, the Advisory Board also recommends a number of complementary programs and measures focused on consumers as well as the existing fleet of light-duty vehicles.
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All Western European Countries Will Have CO2-Related Car Taxation This Year; European Auto Industry Urges Harmonization of Schemes
The number of EU countries with CO2-related car taxation rose to 15 in 2008. With Germany set to introduce CO2-related taxation in July of 2009, all Western European countries levy passenger car taxes that are partially or totally based on the car’s carbon dioxide emissions and/or fuel consumption, completing a trend that peaked in 2007 and 2008, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’s Association’s (ACEA) Tax Guide 2008 published this week.
Romania was the first and so far only Eastern European Member State to introduce CO2-related taxation last year as part of a more comprehensive overhaul of vehicle taxation in the country. In most Central and Eastern European countries, the main concern of policy makers remains to reduce the level of old vehicles on the streets with pollutant emission standards of below Euro 3.
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McKinsey Report Finds 47% Reduction in Global Automotive Emissions Feasible by 2030; Timely Action By All Stakeholders Required
April 06, 2009
| Global passenger vehicle CO2 emissions and abatement potential under three primary scenarios. Source: McKinsey. Click to enlarge. |
A new study by management consultants McKinsey & Company estimates that an integrated approach to carbon abatement in the automotive sector, much of it using proven technologies, could reduce global passenger vehicle greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 by 47% (2.2 gigatons) relative to a ‘do nothing’ scenario, even in the context of ongoing growth in the global vehicle parc.
Without action, carbon emissions from the use of passenger vehicles are projected to increase by 54% (1.8 gigatons) between 2006 and 2030, fueled by a growing number of cars on the road (from 730 million to 1.3 billion).
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EEA Report: Trends in European Transport Are Heading in the Wrong Direction
April 05, 2009
| Indexed European transport sector greenhouse gas emissions, 1990-2006. Source: EEA. Click to enlarge. |
Transport continues to contribute disproportionally to Europe’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, poor air quality and noise, and still uses the least efficient modes to move people and goods according to a new report from the European Environmental Agency (EEA).
Emissions of GHG have increased by 26% (EU-15) or 180 million tonnes between 1990 and 2006, excluding international aviation and marine transport—an amount larger than the entire annual national emissions for 2006 from Belgium (132 million tonnes) or Romania (157 million tonnes).
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SCOPE Biofuels Project Releases Assessment on Environmental Effects of Biofuel Technologies
April 03, 2009
The SCOPE (Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment) International Biofuels Project, has published the full proceedings of its Rapid Assessment workshop on the environmental effects of biofuel technologies, 22-25 September 2008. SCOPE is part of the International Council for Science.
While noting that most recent studies based on lifecycle analysis show that even first generation biofuels can result in “a substantial reduction” in net greenhouse gas emissions (80% to greater than 100% for sugarcane ethanol, 30% to 50% for corn ethanol), papers in the study express concerns over what they contend are potentially undercalculated N2O greenhouse gas effects; the exacerbation of hypoxia from run-off; the need for inclusion of indirect land use effects in greenhouse gas assessments; water use and quality; and other environmental and social effects.
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Government of Canada to Regulate Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Vehicles; Prefers Harmonized North American Standard
April 02, 2009
The Government of Canada will introduce new regulations to limit greenhouse gas emissions from the automotive sector under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999 (CEPA). Environment Minister Jim Prentice made the announcement on Wednesday.
In keeping with the Government of Canada’s commitment to put these regulations in place for 2011 model year vehicles, the Government will proceed immediately to put regulations in place under CEPA. By taking this approach, the Government of Canada will have the flexibility to harmonize its regulations with the broad range of possible future actions from the US government to address greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, the Minister said.
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Study Highlights the Importance of Considering Climate Effects of Non-CO2 Emissions from Transport in Mitigation Strategies and Policies
| Radiative forcing from the global and US ORT and PG sectors. The CO2 radiative forcing shown is for the 20-year time horizon. The sum of total non-CO2 and CO2 forcing is indicated above each bar. Unger et al. (2009). Click to enlarge. |
The radiative forcing affects of a reduction in non-CO2 pollutants (dominated by ozone and black carbon) can outweigh CO2 effects, depending on the replacement energy source, according to a multi-pollutant study by researchers from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Environmental Defense Fund that examined the impact of a 50% reduction in on-road transportation emissions. The study by Nadine Unger, Drew Shindell and James Wang will appear in an upcoming issue of the journal Atmospheric Environment.
The on-road transportation (ORT) and power generation (PG) sectors are major contributors to CO2 emissions and a host of short-lived radiatively-active air pollutants, including tropospheric ozone and fine aerosol particles, that exert complex influences on global climate. However, most assessments of possible energy change options—including studies of the impacts of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)—to date have neglected non-CO2 air pollutant impacts on radiative forcing, according to the authors.
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House Chairmen Waxman, Markey Release Draft of Energy and Climate Legislation; Among the Many Provisions Are Cap-and-Trade, Harmonization of CAFE and California Vehicle Regulations, and Low Carbon Fuel Standard
April 01, 2009
Chairman Henry A. Waxman of the Energy and Commerce Committee and Chairman Edward J. Markey of the Energy and Environment Subcommittee on Tuesday released a draft of far-reaching energy and climate legislation that targets job creation, promotes renewables and energy efficiency, and places limits on emissions of greenhouse gases. The bill also establishes an interagency council to ensure an integrated federal response to adapting to the effects of global warming.
Among the direct transportation-related provisions in the extensive package are a low-carbon fuel standard for all transportation fuels; financial support for large scale demonstrations of electric vehicles; and financial support for automakers retooling plants to make electric vehicles. The bill also directs the President to work with the relevant Federal agencies and California to harmonize, to the maximum extent possible, the federal fuel economy standards, any emission standards promulgated by EPA, and the California standards for light-duty vehicles. Any Federal vehicle standards are to achieve at least the results of the California standards.
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Report: Climate Change Aims Need To Be Better Integrated Into Land Use Planning, Economic and Transport Policies
March 29, 2009
| The policy levels at which climate policy integration may take place. Source: Mickwitz et al. (2009) Click to enlarge. |
Specific measures to tackle climate change, such as emissions trading, will only be successful if they are coherently supported by other government policies addressing economic and social issues, according to a report published 26 March by the Partnership for European Environmental Research (PEER).
The report explains that, in order to create an effective, Europe-wide climate policy, climate change issues must be better integrated into both general and sector-specific policies such as taxation, transportation, and land use planning. By doing this the necessary changes in production processes and consumption patterns to tackle climate change will be achieved.
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Bosch Chairman Says Business Must “Do More” for Climate Protection, Even in Difficult Times
March 26, 2009
Business must do even more for climate protection, even in difficult times, said Franz Fehrenbach, chairman of the Bosch board of management, an a talk at the Baden-Württemberg sustainability congress held in Stuttgart on 25 March (Nachhaltigkeitskongress Baden-Württemberg 2009). The acute economic and financial crisis must not, he said, be allowed to function as a pretext for slackening efforts to combat climate change.
Fehrenbach said that the “green economy” also offered opportunities for overcoming the crisis. According to Fehrenbach, every third euro of sales generated by Bosch now comes from products that conserve resources and/or protect the environment. In 2008, the Bosch Group achieved sales of some € 45 billion (US$61 billion).
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CMU Paper: Market-Based Mechanisms for CO2 Reduction Will Be Insufficient to Attain Mid-Century Goals
March 24, 2009
A new paper from the Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center concludes that while a market-based mechanism (e.g. cap and trade or a carbon tax) is a likely key part of a US strategy to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, such a market-based approach alone will not induce the investments in long-lived technology required to achieve a 50 to 80% reduction in emissions of carbon dioxide by mid-century.
Although market-based mechanisms need to be implemented soon to establish a framework for emissions reductions, the Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) team argues, the range of prices for CO2 currently under discussion will be too low to enable achieving the longer-term targets. In the paper “Cap and Trade is Not Enough: Improving US Climate Policy”, the authors argue that the US Congress should simultaneously design, integrate and implement these targeted strategies:
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Bipartisan Group of US Senators Calls on EPA to Refrain From Including Indirect Land Use Change in Biofuel Regulations
March 17, 2009
A bipartisan group of 12 US senators led by Tom Harkin (D-IA) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) has called on the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) not to include calculations of indirect land use change (ILUC) effects as contributors to life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for biofuels in the upcoming rulemaking for implementation of the updated Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS-2) enacted in the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007.
The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS-2) defined within the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 requires biofuels to meet specified life-cycle greenhouse gas emission reduction targets to qualify. The law specifies that life-cycle GHG emissions are to include “direct emissions and significant indirect emissions such as significant emissions from land use changes, as determined by the Administrator.”
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New Research Tools for Assessing Impacts of Aerosols on Climate
March 13, 2009
Visibility in the clear sky is reduced by the presence of aerosols, whose types and concentrations have a large impact on the amount of solar radiation that reaches Earth’s surface. Researchers at the University of Maryland and the University of Texas, Austin, have created a database that includes visibility measurements taken from 1973 - 2007 at 3,250 meteorological stations all over the world and released by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). A report on their work appears in the 13 March issue of the journal Science.
Separately, researchers from NASA Goddard’s Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City have developed a new detection technique and a new satellite instrument—the Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS)—to measure accurately aerosols’ composition, size, and global distribution.
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UK New Car CO2 Emissions Drop to 158.0 g/km in 2008
March 12, 2009
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| UK average new car CO2 emissions. Source: SMMT. Click to enlarge. |
Average CO2 emissions from new cars sold in the UK in 2008 fell to 158.0 g/km in 2008—4.2% less than the 2007 figure and 16.8% down on the 189.8 g/km base level in 1997, according to figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders’ (SMMT) annual New Car CO2 Report. The drop marks the sharpest annual decline yet. (Using US EPA conversion factors (earlier post), 158 g/km is roughly equivalent to 34.8 mpg US for gasoline and 39.9 mpg US for diesel.)
Although the UK new car fleet has made above-EU15 gains in six of past seven years to 2007, the UK average new car CO2 emissions remains 3.7% above the EU15 average, which reached 158 g/km in 2007, according to the report.
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US EPA Proposes First National Reporting on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Including Mobile Sources
March 10, 2009
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed the first comprehensive national system for reporting emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases produced by major sources in the United States.
The new reporting requirements would apply to suppliers of fossil fuel and industrial chemicals, manufacturers of mobile sources such as motor vehicles and engines, as well as large direct emitters of greenhouse gases with emissions equal to or greater than a threshold of 25,000 metric tons per year. This threshold is roughly equivalent to the annual greenhouse gas emissions from just over 4,500 passenger vehicles.
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EPA: US GHG Up 1.4% in 2007 from 2006; Light-duty Vehicle Emissions Down 0.74%
March 07, 2009
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| Total greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, N20 and HFCs) allocated to passenger cars and light trucks, 1990-2007. Click to enlarge. |
Overall greenhouse gas emissions in the US during 2007 increased by 1.4% from the previous year to 7,125.2 Tg CO2 Eq., according to the annual Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007 draft report released by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Overall, total US emissions have risen by 17% from 1990 to 2007. The report will be open for public comment for 30 days after the Federal Register notice is published.
According to the draft report, this trend was due primarily to (1) cooler winter and warmer summer conditions in 2007 than in 2006 which increased the demand for heating fuels and contributed to the increase in the demand for electricity, (2) increased consumption of fossil fuels to generate electricity and (3) a significant decrease (14.2%) in hydropower generation used to meet this demand.
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California Air Resources Board Releases Proposed Regulation for Low Carbon Fuel Standard
March 05, 2009
The California Air Resources Board (ARB) released its proposed regulation to implement the Low Carbon Fuel Standard. The release of the proposed regulation allows 45 days for the public to review the language and provide comment before the item is considered at the 23 April 23 ARB hearing.
The regulation establishes two performance standards that fuel producers and importers must meet each year beginning in 2011. One standard is established for gasoline and the alternative fuels that can replace it. A second similar standard is set for diesel fuel and its replacements. Each standard is set to achieve an average 10% in the carbon intensity of the statewide mix transportation fuels by 2020. The regulation is expected to result in 16 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2020.
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China’s 2005 Carbon Emissions Almost Twice As Much As 2002 Emissions
February 28, 2009
by Jack Rosebro
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| Carbon emissions associated with increased exports from China (left), as part of a more systematic view of increased national emissions (right), 2002 to 2005. Guan et al. (2009) Click to enlarge. |
Energy efficiency gains in a rapidly modernizing China “cannot cope” with skyrocketing emissions caused by increased exports as well as domestic consumption, according to the paper “Journey to world’s top emitter,” published 27 February in Geophysical Research Letters. Researchers from Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States, estimated in the study that China’s 2005 carbon emissions were 80.59% or more higher than 2002 emissions.
“It is easier to understand the growth in China’s carbon emissions,” note the authors of the paper, “by considering which consumption activities—households and government, capital investments, and international trade—drive Chinese production and hence emissions.”
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Even If Warming Ceased, Sea Level to Rise At Least About 184 mm From Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps
Even if the global climate did not continue to warm, sea level will still rise at least 184 ± 33 mm (7.2 ± 1.3 inches) due to the current mass wastage of the world’s mountain glaciers and ice caps, according to a new study published 11 February in Geophysical Research Letters.
If the climate continues to warm along current trends, a minimum of 373 ± 21 mm (14.7 ± 0.83 inches) of sea-level rise over the next 100 years is expected from glaciers and ice caps, according to the study by researchers at Regis University and the University of Colorado, Boulder. When compared to recent estimates from all other sources, melt water from glaciers must be considered as a particularly important fraction of the total sea-level rise expected this century.
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Two Studies on Regional Options for Reducing GHG Highlight Need for Reduction in Travel Intensity
February 16, 2009
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| Projected GHG emissions in Minnesota with different reduction wedges and wedge portfolios, in million metric tons of CO2 equivalent. The uppermost line in each graph represents emissions under the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Each patterned wedge depicts the reduction below BAU emission levels attributed to a given technology or practice. Olabisi et al. (2009) Click to enlarge. |
Achieving targeted regional reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector will require concentrated efforts to change travel behavior and reduce vehicle miles travelled in addition to advances in vehicle technology and fuels, according to two recent studies.
A paper by researchers at the University of Minnesota, published in the ACS journal Environmental Science & Technology, projects GHG mitigation strategies for Minnesota, which has adopted a strategic goal of 80% emissions reductions below 2005 levels by 2050. A paper by researchers at the Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS), University of California–Davis, to be published in the journal Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, examines how California may reduce transportation greenhouse gas emissions 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 (&ldqou;80in50”). (Earlier version of study, earlier post.)
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Australia Reels From Split Weather System, Suffers Effect Of “The Big Dry” And “The Big Wet”
February 12, 2009
by Jack Rosebro
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| Land surface temperature anomaly across Australia between 25 January and 1 February, 2009, during the first of two heatwaves in the Southeast as well as flooding in the North. The darkest reds and the darkest blues show a 10ºC temperature differential from baseline (white). Source: NASA. Click to enlarge. |
As Australia’s record heat waves during the last week of January and first week of February overloaded urban energy, water, and transport systems in the southernmost states of South Australia and Victoria while intensifying hundreds of seasonal and man-made bushfires throughout the countryside, the northeastern state of Queensland has struggled to cope with the effects of tropical cyclones Charlotte and Ellie, which brought rain and “king tides” that have made two-thirds of that state a disaster zone, destroying livestock as well as key crops and amplifying outbreaks of disease.
As many as 260 to 300 people are feared dead from fire in Victoria, with 181 deaths confirmed. The projected deaths surpass the combined fatalities from all of Australia’s major bushfire disasters (e.g. Black Friday of 1939, Ash Wednesday of 1983) in recorded history. Full accounting of all human remains are expected to take several months.
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NETL Report Concludes CTL Plus Carbon Capture Results in Fuel with 5-12% Less Lifecycle GHG Than Petroleum Diesel; Modest Biomass Additions Lower GHG Further
February 07, 2009
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| Lifecycle GHG emissions of CTL/CBTL/BTL compared to 2005 petroleum diesel baseline. Background colors of the cells represent the crude oil price required for economic feasibility. Tarka et al. (2009) Click to enlarge. |
A new report from the US Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) concludes that coupling a Coal to Liquids (CTL) process with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) yields a fuel with 5-12% less lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to the average emissions profile of petroleum-derived diesel, based on the US national average in 2005. These synthetic fuels are economically competitive with petro-diesel when the crude oil price (COP) is at or above $86 per barrel (based on a 20% rate of return, in January 2008 dollars, with a carbon price of zero).
Adding biomass to the coal in the CTL process (Coal and Biomass to Liquids, CBTL) can reduce the GHG emissions further, according to the study. A mixture of 8% (by weight) biomass and 92% coal can produce fuels which have 20% lower life cycle GHG emissions than petroleum-derived diesel and which are economically competitive when crude prices are equal to or above $93/bbl.
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New Study Shows that Sea Level Rise Resulting From Collapse of West Antarctic Ice Sheet Would be Non-Uniform; Some Regions to See Levels Much Higher Than Previously Predicted
February 06, 2009
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| Sea-level change in response to the collapse of the WAIS computed by using (A) a standard eustatic sea-level theory and (B) the new model. (C) shows the difference between predictions generated by using the two sea-level theories [(B) minus (A)]. Source: Mitrovica et al. (2009) Click to enlarge. |
A new study by researchers at the University of Toronto and Oregon State University concludes that when physical and gravitational factors are applied to projections of sea level rise resulting from a catastrophic collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the impact on coastal areas is dramatically worse in some parts of the world than predicted so far.
They found that the catastrophic increase in sea level, already projected to average between 16 and 17 feet around the world (~5m), would be almost 21 feet in such places as Washington, DC, putting it largely underwater. Many coastal areas would be devastated. Much of southern Florida would disappear.
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European Commission: Global Climate Strategy Needed To Avoid “Potentially Unmanageable Consequences”
February 02, 2009
by Jack Rosebro
The European Commission has sent a formal communication[1] to the European Council and European Parliament, laying out the Commission’s recommendations to Council and Parliament on positions that the European Union should take during international climate change negotiations later this year in Copenhagen.
The negotiations, which will be conducted in December under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), are scheduled to produce an international agreement on future climate change reductions to be implemented after the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012. The Kyoto Protocol committed participating industrialized countries to an average greenhouse gas emissions reduction of 5.2% by 2008-2012, as compared to 1990.
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Marine Scientists Issue Monaco Declaration Calling for Immediate Action to Reduce Ocean Acidification
January 30, 2009
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| Projected spread of acidification of the oceans from 1994 (left) to 2100 (right). Green areas indicate waters supersaturated with aragonite carbonate and favoring shell formation, with darker color indicating more favorable conditions. Red areas are those where waters are under-saturated in aragonite and so hostile to shell formation by marine organisms, with darker color indicating greater under-saturation. Source: ACECRC. Click to enlarge. |
More than 150 leading marine scientists from 26 countries are calling for immediate action by policymakers to reduce CO2 emissions sharply so as to avoid widespread and severe damage to marine ecosystems from increasing ocean acidification—the “other CO2 problem”. They issued this warning in the Monaco Declaration, released on 30 January.
The scientists note that ocean acidification is already detectable, and that it is accelerating. They caution that its negative socio-economic impacts can only be avoided by limiting future atmospheric CO2 levels.
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Study Concludes US LDV Fleet Needs to Reduce Carbon Emissions Per Mile By Up to 88% by 2050 to Meet 450ppm Stabilization Scenario; No Single Carbon Reduction Strategy Likely to Achieve This
January 29, 2009
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| Well-to-wheel carbon emissions limits (g/mi) for LDVs to meet target concentrations given a 2050 convergence date, two different VMT growth scenarios (0% and 1.7% per year), and a baseline LDV emissions share (25.3% of US emissions). Credit: ACS. Click to enlarge. |
Researchers at the University of Michigan (U-M) have calculated quantitative sustainable mobility targets for US light-duty vehicles (LDVs) to help stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at 450 or 550 ppm, based on the well-to-wheel carbon emissions per mile driven.
Average fleet-wide on-road light-duty vehicle (LDV) well-to-wheel carbon emissions must be reduced from 160 g carbon/mile (equivalent to 586.7 gCO2/mile) to as little as 20 gC/mile (equivalent to 73 gCO2/mile) under one scenario by 2050—an 88% reduction—to contribute to a goal of 450 ppm, according to according to Greg Keoleian, co-director of the U-M School of Natural Resources and Environment, and his co-authors, Hilary Grimes-Casey and Blair Willcox of the Center for Sustainable Systems.
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Researchers Develop Method for Higher-Rate Solar Photocatalytic Conversion of CO2 and Water Vapor to Hydrocarbon Fuels
January 28, 2009
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| Product generation rates from a nitrogen-doped nanotube array film surface-loaded with both Pt and Cu catalysts. Credit: ACS. Click to enlarge. |
Researchers at Penn State have developed a method for the more efficient solar conversion of carbon dioxide and water vapor to methane and other hydrocarbons using nitrogen-doped titania nanotube arrays. The arrays feature a wall thickness low enough to facilitate effective carrier transfer to the adsorbing species, and are surface-loaded with nanodimensional islands of co-catalysts platinum (Pt) and/or copper (Cu).
A paper on their work was published online 27 January in the ACS journal Nano Letters.
