Climate Change Adaptation

[Due to the increasing size of the archives, each topic page now contains only the prior 365 days of content. Access to older stories is now solely through the Monthly Archive pages or the site search function.]

New Report Concludes That Real Costs of Adapting to Climate Change Will Likely Be At Least 2-3X Greater Than Current Estimates

August 27, 2009

Representation of damage from climate change avoided by adaptation, and damage not be adapted to (‘residual damage’) over the longer term. Source: “Assessing the costs...” In Click to enlarge.

Scientists led by a former co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are warning warn that the UN negotiations aimed at tackling climate change are based on substantial underestimates of what it will cost to adapt to its impacts.

The real costs of adaptation are likely to be at least 2-3 times greater than estimates made by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), say Professor Martin Parry and colleagues in a new report published by the International Institute for Environment and Development and the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London. Parry co-chaired the IPCC working group on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation between 2002 and 2008.

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US Global Change Research Program Issues Report on Impacts of Climate Change in US; Details Point to Potential Value of Early, Aggressive Action

June 17, 2009

Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now in the US and are expected to increase. Source: USGCRP. Click to enlarge.

Climate change is already having visible impacts in the United States, and the choices we make now will determine the severity of its impacts in the future, according to the final release of the report “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States”. A product of the interagency US Global Change Research Program, the 190-page report was commissioned in 2007 and completed this spring.

Produced by a consortium of experts from 13 US government science agencies and from several major universities and research institutes, many of whom are also involved in the UN IPCC process, the report compiles years of scientific research and incorporates new data not available during the preparation of previous large national and global assessments.

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Washington Governor Issues Executive Order Directing State Actions to Reduce Greenhouse Gases; Consideration of California Low Carbon Fuel Standard and Highway Electrification

May 24, 2009

Washington Gov. Chris Gregoire issued an executive order directing a variety of state actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions including continued participation in the Western Climate Initiative to develop a regional greenhouse has emissions reduction program; an increase in transportation and fuel-conservation options including a low-carbon fuel standard; and the pursuit of the electrification of the interstate highway and associated metro centers.

Gregoire issued her executive order, entitled “Washington’s Leadership on Climate Change,” after testifying at the US Environmental Protection Agency’s public hearing in Seattle on the regulation of greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. The order contains a number of directives specifically for the Department of Ecology and the Department of Transportation.

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Even If Warming Ceased, Sea Level to Rise At Least About 184 mm From Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps

February 28, 2009

Even if the global climate did not continue to warm, sea level will still rise at least 184 ± 33 mm (7.2 ± 1.3 inches) due to the current mass wastage of the world’s mountain glaciers and ice caps, according to a new study published 11 February in Geophysical Research Letters.

If the climate continues to warm along current trends, a minimum of 373 ± 21 mm (14.7 ± 0.83 inches) of sea-level rise over the next 100 years is expected from glaciers and ice caps, according to the study by researchers at Regis University and the University of Colorado, Boulder. When compared to recent estimates from all other sources, melt water from glaciers must be considered as a particularly important fraction of the total sea-level rise expected this century.

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New Study Shows that Sea Level Rise Resulting From Collapse of West Antarctic Ice Sheet Would be Non-Uniform; Some Regions to See Levels Much Higher Than Previously Predicted

February 06, 2009

Sea-level change in response to the collapse of the WAIS computed by using (A) a standard eustatic sea-level theory and (B) the new model. (C) shows the difference between predictions generated by using the two sea-level theories [(B) minus (A)]. Source: Mitrovica et al. (2009) Click to enlarge.

A new study by researchers at the University of Toronto and Oregon State University concludes that when physical and gravitational factors are applied to projections of sea level rise resulting from a catastrophic collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the impact on coastal areas is dramatically worse in some parts of the world than predicted so far.

They found that the catastrophic increase in sea level, already projected to average between 16 and 17 feet around the world (~5m), would be almost 21 feet in such places as Washington, DC, putting it largely underwater. Many coastal areas would be devastated. Much of southern Florida would disappear.

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Researchers Evaluate Climate Cooling Potential of Different Geoengineering Schemes

January 27, 2009

Schematic overview of the climate geoengineering proposals considered. From Vaughan and Lenton (2009). Click to enlarge.

Researchers at the University of East Anglia (UEA) have carried out the first comprehensive assessment of the relative merits of different geoengineering schemes in terms of the climate cooling potential. Their paper appears in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions.

Climate geoengineering proposals seek to combat the effects of climate change—in particular to counteract the effects of increased CO₂ in the atmosphere. There are two basic approaches proposed: reducing the atmospheric absorption of incoming solar (shortwave) radiation, or removing CO₂ from the atmosphere and transferring it to long-lived reservoirs, thereby increasing outgoing longwave radiation.

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US Climate Change Science Program Releases Four More Final Synthesis and Assessments Reports; Arctic Amplification, Aerosols, Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Ecological Thresholds

January 19, 2009

The US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) released four more final synthesis and assessment (S&A) reports in the series that will total 21. These latest S&A products examine past climate variability and change in the Arctic (1.2); the impact of aerosols on climate (2.3); the sensitivity of the Mid-Atlantic coastal region to sea-level rise (4.1); and thresholds of climate change in ecosystems (4.2).

The CCSP integrates the federal research efforts of 13 agencies on climate and global change. Other S&A products have reported on the affect of climate change on US agriculture, land and water resources, and biodiversity (4.3, earlier post), weather and climate extremes (3.3, earlier post); and adaptation options (4.4, earlier post).

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“Nature Does Not Provide Bailouts”: Tällberg Provocation Calls for Complete Decarbonization of Industrialized Countries by 2050

December 28, 2008

by Jack Rosebro

The Tällberg Foundation has released a discussion paper^[1] that proposes a global greenhouse gas emission reduction target of 90% along with a target of 100% “domestic, at-source” reductions coming from industrialized countries by the year 2050, with the objective of avoiding many of the more unpredictable potential effects of climate change.

The paper, or “Tällberg Provocation”, anticipates that if industrialized countries are to attain complete decarbonization by 2050, they will need to cut domestic greenhouse gas production by as much as half while offsetting another quarter of domestic GHGs with emissions reductions elsewhere by 2020.

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UN Climate Talks Look to Copenhagen As Last Stand, EU Sets Climate Change Goals for 2020

December 15, 2008

by Jack Rosebro

Historical and projected energy-related CO2 emissions, by fuel, assuming no significant availability of renewable energies. Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008. Click to enlarge.

The 14^th Conference of Parties (COP-14) of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC), which was attended by almost two hundred environmental ministers and secretaries, concluded last week in Poznań, Poland without significant action toward the establishment of concrete reductions in greenhouse gases, but with “a clear commitment from governments to shift into full negotiating mode next year, in order to shape an ambitious and effective international response to climate change”^[1] at COP-15, scheduled to be held in December 2009 in Copenhagen, according to the UNFCCC.

COP-15 is widely regarded as the last opportunity for world governments to agree on a common strategy to both reduce and adapt to climate change, and then ratify that strategy prior to the expiration of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012.

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Report: Climate Change Puts Forests and People At Risk; Adaptation Required to Avert Crisis

November 29, 2008

Examples of measures for forest adaptation. Click to enlarge.

Unless immediate action is taken, climate change could have a devastating effect on the world’s forests and the nearly 1 billion people who depend on them for their livelihoods, according to a team of scientists from the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR).

In their report—Facing an Uncertain Future: How Forests and People can Adapt to Climate Change—released in conjunction with the UNFCCC Conference of Parties meeting in Poznán, Poland, the CIFOR researchers call for the implementation of adaptation measures to reduce the vulnerability of the forests and forest-dependent communities that will experience an unprecedented combination of climate change-associated disturbances like flooding, drought, wildfire, and other environmental challenges in the next 100 years.

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California Governor Issues Executive Order to Begin Planning for Adapting to Sea Level Rise

November 15, 2008

USGS Coastal Vulnerability Index for sea level rise for California. Click to enlarge.

Stating that the longer California delays planning and adapting to coming sea level rise the more expensive and difficult adaptation will be, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger issued an Executive Order (S-13-08) directing a set of state agencies to begin those tasks.

Separately, a newly-released report by David Roland-Holst and Fredrich Kahrl at UC Berkeley—California Climate Risk and Response—found that the state has $4 trillion in real estate assets, of which $2.5 trillion are at risk from extreme weather events, sea level rise, and wildfires, with a projected annual price tag of $300 million to $3.9 billion over this century, depending on how warm the world gets.

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Mayor of London Launches Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

August 31, 2008

Surface temperature of London at 21:30 on 7 August, 2003 showing the signature of the urban heat island during the killer heatwave. Click to enlarge. Source: NASA

Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London, launched the London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy—one of the first comprehensive climate change adaptation strategies produced by any major city worldwide. The launch of the strategy comes weeks after the UK Government’s chief scientist advised that the UK needs to adapt to increased average global temperatures of four degrees Celsius.

Expected results of climate change for London include warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers, with more extreme weather (heatwaves, tidal surges and heavy rainfall) and rising sea levels. These changes will increase the risk of heatwaves, floods and droughts, which will affect the prosperity of the city and the quality of life of Londoners.

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