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[Due to the increasing size of the archives, each topic page now contains only the prior 365 days of content. Access to older stories is now solely through the Monthly Archive pages or the site search function.]
Dow Planning to Build and Operate a Pilot-Scale Algae-to-Ethanol Biorefinery with Algenol Biofuels
June 29, 2009
The Dow Chemical Company plans to work with Algenol Biofuels, Inc. to build and operate a pilot-scale algae-based integrated biorefinery that will produce ethanol, located at Dow’s Freeport, Texas site. Dow, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) and Membrane Technology & Research, Inc. are contributing science, expertise, and technology to the project.
Algenol submitted its formal request last week to obtain a grant from the US Department of Energy (DOE) for financial support to successfully conduct the pilot. Upon approval of the grant, Dow and the other collaborators will work with Algenol to demonstrate the technology at a level to sufficiently prove that it can be implemented on a commercial scale.
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Scania Delivering 85 Ethanol Buses to Stockholm Suburbs; E95 in a Diesel Engine
June 28, 2009
| Scania ethanol buses for SL. Click to enlarge. |
Scania has sold 85 ethanol-powered articulated buses to Busslink, operator of bus services for Storstockholms Lokaltrafik (SL), the regional public transport company in the Swedish capital. Scania’s ethanol bus features a modified diesel engine running on a mixture of 95% ethanol with 5% ignition improver. (Earlier post.) The buses that were just ordered will be equipped with third-generation Scania ethanol engines.
The order from Busslink is Scania Sverige’s largest single bus transaction in the Swedish market since 2004. Scania’s bus sales in Sweden began 2009 very strongly, and some 100 such vehicles have been registered so far this year.
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Study Finds Water Footprint for Bioenergy Larger Than Other Forms of Energy; Bioelectricity the Smallest, Biodiesel the Largest
June 06, 2009
| Total weighted global average water footprints (blue and green) for major ethanol and biodiesel crops in m3 water per GJ fuel. The yellow marker (also left axis) indicates the total weighted global average WF for bioelectricity from the same crops. The red marker (right axis) indicates liters of water required to produce one liter of fuel. Data: Gerbens-Leenes et al. Click to enlarge. |
Researchers at the University of Twente, Netherlands have calculated the water footprints (WFs) of bioenergy from 12 crops that currently contribute the most to global agricultural production: barley, cassava, maize, potato, rapeseed, rice, rye, sorghum, soybean, sugar beet, sugar cane, and wheat. In addition, their study includes jatropha, an energy crop.
In general they found that bioelectricity is more water-efficient than first-generation biofuels (due largely to the ability to use the entire biomass to produce energy, rather than just the starch or oil fraction of the yield for liquid fuel production). They also found that the WF of bioethanol on a m3 of water per GJ of fuel basis appears to be smaller than that of biodiesel. Their results appeared 2 June in an open access paper in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
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Profile: Farmers’ Ethanol—Focusing on Sustainable Corn Ethanol Production and a Triple Bottom Line
May 27, 2009
by Bill Cooke
| Farmers’ Ethanol biorefinery process. Click to enlarge. |
Wendel Dreve and Marion Gilliland have dedicated the past five years to pursing their dream of transforming the corn ethanol industry. Their company, Farmers’ Ethanol, plans to combine energy and food production within the same facility and by doing so create a business that can survive the wild fluctuations in commodity prices that plague today’s corn ethanol business.
Their systems approach leads to synergies that have the potential to dramatically reduce corn ethanol’s carbon footprint. Finally, they believe that during the launch and operation of their business, located in Appalachian Ohio, they will bring economic opportunity to a rural community that has been struggling financially over the last several decades.
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Argonne Lifecycle Analysis Calculates WTW Petroleum Energy Use and GHG Emissions for PHEVs Fueled With Petroleum, E85 and Hydrogen
May 14, 2009
| Summary of WTW petroleum energy use and GHG emissions for combined CD and CS operations relative to baseline gasoline ICEV. Single markers indicate conventional hybrids. Click to enlarge. |
Researchers at Argonne National Laboratory have published results of a well-to-wheels (WTW) lifecycle analysis of petroleum energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles employing gasoline, diesel, E85 and hydrogen (fuel cell) fuels, with an all-electric range between 10 to 40 miles.
Compared to an internal combustion vehicle fueled with gasoline, PHEVs that employed petroleum fuels (gasoline and diesel) offered a 40-60% reduction in petroleum energy use and a 30-60% reduction in GHG emissions. PHEVs fueled by E85 offered a 70-90% reduction in petroleum energy use and a 40-80% reduction in GHG emissions. PHEVs equipped with hydrogen fuel cells offered a more than 90% reduction in petroleum energy use and a 10-100% reduction in GHG emissions.
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Volvo Upgrades Power, Lowers Fuel Consumption of 2.5L Flex-fuel Engine
Volvo Cars has boosted the power of its five-cylinder, 2.5-liter Flexifuel engine by 30 hp and delivered an additional 40 N·m of torque. (Earlier post.) The 2.5FT now produces 231 hp (170 kW) and 340 N·m (251 lb-ft) of torque. At the same time, Volvo engineers have cut fuel consumption by between five and six percent depending on transmission.
Fuel consumption (EU, mixed driving cycle on gasoline) for the upgraded 2.5FT is 8.8 L/100 km (26.7 mpg US) (V70) and 8.6 L/100 km (27.4 mpg US) (S80) with manual transmission, and 9.7 L/100 km (24.2 mpg US) (V70) and 9.6 L/100 km (24.5 mpg US) (S80) with automatic transmission. This is an improvement of about 5% for the manual versions and almost 6% for cars with automatic transmission.
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President Obama Establishes Biofuels Interagency Working Group; Push on Biofuel Development/Commercialization and Flex-Fuel Vehicle Use
May 05, 2009
US President Barack Obama has established a Biofuels Interagency Working Group, to be co-chaired by the Secretaries of Agriculture and Energy and the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, to further the research, development and commercialization of biofuels.
The announcement came in conjunction with the EPA’s release of its notice of proposed rulemaking for the Renewable Fuel Standard (earlier post), and the Department of Energy’s announcement of $787.5 million in funding to be awarded to advanced biofuels research and commercialization projects (earlier post).
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Study Finds Strong Synergy Between Spark Ignition Engine Downsizing and Low-to-Moderate Alcohol Blend Fuels
May 01, 2009
A study by engineers from Mahle Powertrain Ltd and BP found strong synergy between spark ignition (SI) engine downsizing and fuel containing low-to-moderate amounts of alcohol, including ethanol and butanol. The team presented a paper on their work at the recent SAE 2009 World Congress in Detroit.
The researchers found that the combination of technologies allowed improvements in fuel economy over the engine drive cycle. Furthermore, a reasonable improvement in dilution tolerance could be achieved at higher engine loads, which could eliminate over-fueling requirements under such conditions.
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Glycos Biotechnologies and Eureka Genomics Sequence the Genome of a Proprietary Bacterium for Emerging Biorefinery Industry
April 28, 2009
Glycos Biotechnologies, Inc. (GlycosBio), a pioneer in metabolic engineering, and Eureka Genomics, a leader in analysis of next-generation genomic sequencing data, have sequenced the genome of a proprietary bacterium that could initially increase the ethanol yield from corn ethanol plants and will support the growth of an emerging biorefinery industry.
The new bacterial strain is targeted at producing ethanol from the thin stillage byproduct of the fermentation process. GlycosBio’s Chief Science Officer Dr. Paul Campbell said that the company is targeting a 5 - 7.5% yield increase at an existing ethanol facility via the fermentation of the thin stillage, at a target cost of around $1.00 - $1.25 per gallon.
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Ford E85 Direct Injection Boosting Study: A Less Expensive Alternative to Diesel
April 26, 2009
Using a separate E85 direct injection boosting system combined with gasoline port fuel injection (PFI) makes the engine more efficient in its use of gasoline, and can be viewed as a more cost-effective alternative to a modern diesel, according to a Ford study presented by Robert Stein, currently of AVL, formerly of Ford, at the SAE 2009 World Congress.
Proposed by John Heywood and colleagues at MIT in 2005, the basic premise of E85 boosting is that ethanol (or other lower alcohols) suppresses knock due to the large evaporative cooling effect it has on the air-fuel mixture when injected directly into the cylinder, supplemented by ethanol’s inherent high octane number. Using the E85 boosting concept requires two fuel tanks and vehicle owner acceptance of dual fueling.
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Group of Scientists and Economists Urge Inclusion of Indirect Land Use Change Effects for Biofuels and All Transportation Fuels in California LCFS
April 21, 2009
More than 170 scientists and economists have sent a letter to California Air Resources Board (ARB) Chairman Mary Nichols urging the board to account for greenhouse gas emissions from indirect land use change for biofuels and all other transportation fuels under the state’s proposed low carbon fuel standard (LCFS). The signatories include nine members of the National Academies of Science and two Nobel laureates.
During its meeting on 23-24 April, the Board will consider the adoption of the LCFS, which requires a 10% reduction in the carbon intensity (measured in gCO2e/MJ) of transportation fuels in California by 2020.
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Study Finds Regional Variations in Irrigation Practices Can Push Corn Ethanol Water Requirements 3x Higher Than Earlier Estimates; Need to Account for Regional Specifics in Mandates
April 08, 2009
| Top: County-level corn production and ethanol facilities in 2007. The graph illustrates the proximity of ethanol facilities to corn production. Bottom: EWe and TCW of each state as of 2007. The foreground bar height indicates the EWe of each state, with the portion of ground and surface water indicated by color. The TCW, as measured by a state’s EWe and ethanol production (seen in the background), illustrates local and regional ethanol-induced impacts. Credit: ACS. Click to enlarge. |
Researchers at the University of Minnesota have estimated state-level field-to-pump water requirements of corn ethanol production across the US. Their results find that corn ethanol’s water requirements can range from 5 to 2,138 L per liter of ethanol depending on regional irrigation practices. Prior studies have estimated that corn ethanol requires 263-784 L L-1of water from corn farm to fuel pump.
Based on their calculations using state-level water use data, Sangwon Suh and colleagues also found that the national ethanol-production-weighted average water requirement in the US was 142 L L-1 in 2007— much lower than what was previously estimated in other studies. The new paper is scheduled for the 15 April 15 issue of the ACS journal Environmental Science & Technology.
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IEA Bioenergy Report Finds Improvements in Corn Ethanol Production Could Lead to Further 25% Reduction in Lifecycle GHG Emissions by 2015 Compared to 2005
April 01, 2009
A new report from Canada-based S&T2 Consultants Inc., commissioned by IEA Bioenergy, finds that lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to producing corn ethanol are not static and have shown continual improvement over time. By 2015, the report finds, corn ethanol could show greenhouse gas emissions of 40,068 gCO2eq/GJ (HHV)—a 25% reduction from the 2005 level of 53,466 gCO2eq/GJ and a 37% reduction from the 1995 level of 63,977 gCO2eq/GJ.
By comparison, gasoline shows full lifecycle GHG emissions of 88,764 gCO2eq/GJ in 2015, up 2.5% from 1995. The total GHG reduction from corn ethanol (E100) compared to gasoline thus would be 54.9% in 2015, compared to 39.0% in 2005 and 26.2% in 1995. For a 10% ethanol blend (E10), the fuel cycle reduction compared to gasoline could be 4.7% in 2015, compared to 3.7% in 2005 and 2.0% in 1995.
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New Legislation Would Require Half of US New LDVs in 2012 to be Alcohol Flex-Fuel, 80% by 2015
March 18, 2009
A bipartisan group of US legislators, led by Congressman Eliot Engel (D-NY-17), have introduced legislation that would require half of all light-duty vehicles (LDVs) made or sold in America by 2012, and 80% by 2015, to be “fuel choice-enabling” vehicles. These fuel choice-enabling vehicles are defined as flexible fuel vehicles capable of running on gasoline and on up to 85% alcohol-gasoline blends such as E85 or M85, as well as diesel vehicles warranted by its manufacturer to operate on biodiesel.
The legislation would allow exemptions for manufacturers under certain conditions, including if the application of the fuel-choice enabling technology to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) caused such vehicles to fail to meet state air quality requirements.
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Bipartisan Group of US Senators Calls on EPA to Refrain From Including Indirect Land Use Change in Biofuel Regulations
March 17, 2009
A bipartisan group of 12 US senators led by Tom Harkin (D-IA) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) has called on the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) not to include calculations of indirect land use change (ILUC) effects as contributors to life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for biofuels in the upcoming rulemaking for implementation of the updated Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS-2) enacted in the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007.
The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS-2) defined within the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 requires biofuels to meet specified life-cycle greenhouse gas emission reduction targets to qualify. The law specifies that life-cycle GHG emissions are to include “direct emissions and significant indirect emissions such as significant emissions from land use changes, as determined by the Administrator.”
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Iowa State Researchers Developing New Thermochemical System for Ethanol Production from Biomass
March 10, 2009
Researchers at Iowa State University are developing a new thermochemical system for the coproduction of ethanol and thermal energy, based on a new low-emissions burner and a new catalyst for ethanol production. Both technologies will use the synthesis gas—a mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen—produced by the gasification of discarded seed corn, switchgrass, wood chips and other biomass.
The burner will be designed to efficiently and cleanly burn biomass-derived syngas; the catalyst will be designed to convert the syngas directly into ethanol. The project is supported by a two-year, $2.37 million grant from the Iowa Power Fund, a state program to advance energy innovation and independence. The grant award carries a $922,112 committed match.
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Petrobras Biocombustível To Invest US$2.4B in Biodiesel and Ethanol Production
As part of its newly released business plan, Brazil’s Petrobras Biocombustível intends to invest approximately US$2.4 billion in biodiesel and ethanol production from 2009-2013; 91% of the investment is targeted for Brazil.
This investment is part of a total of $2.8 billion Petrobras earmarked for the biofuels business, which also foresees expenditures of US$400 million in infrastructure, such as ethanol pipelines. The total resources represent an 87% increase compared to the previous business plan. Petrobras also earmarked US$530 million for biofuel research in the period.
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Growth Energy and Ethanol Producers Request Waiver Allowing E15 from EPA
March 07, 2009
Growth Energy, a new advocacy group promoting ethanol and biofuels, has submitted, on behalf of 52 US ethanol manufacturers, a request for a “green jobs” waiver allowing an increase in the ethanol blend limit from 10% (E10) up to 15% (E15) to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The waiver does not seek to mandate use of E15, but to remove the barrier to its optional use.
Announcing the submission at an event at the National Press Club in Washington DC, General Wesley Clark, USA (Ret.), co-chairman of Growth Energy, said that increasing the blend up to E15 would create 136,101 new jobs and inject $24.4 billion into the US economy annually. Growth Energy released a report earlier in the week on the economic impact of higher blends of ethanol.
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Study Concludes That Land Set-Asides Can Be Better Climate Investment Than Corn Ethanol
March 05, 2009
A new study concludes that, depending on prior land use, carbon (C) releases from the soil after planting corn for ethanol may in some cases completely offset C gains attributed to biofuel generation for at least 50 years. Based on an analysis of 142 soil studies, the study also found that soil carbon sequestered by setting aside former agricultural land was greater than the carbon credits generated by planting corn for ethanol on the same land for 40 years and had equal or greater economic net present value.
The study also found that once commercially available, cellulosic ethanol produced in set-aside grasslands should provide the most efficient tool for GHG reduction of any scenario examined. The researchers from DUke University, Texas A&M University and Universidad Nacional de San Luis om Argentina suggested that conversion of CRP lands or other set-aside programs to corn ethanol production should not be encouraged through greenhouse gas policies.
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Saab to Give 9-3X its Debut in Geneva; E85 Plus All-Wheel Drive
February 23, 2009
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| The 9-3X. Click to enlarge. |
Saab will introduce the new 9-3X to the public at the upcoming Geneva motor show in March. The 9-3X sport wagon offers a lighter alternative to heavier and larger crossovers or SUVs. The 210 hp (155 kW), 2.0-liter turbo engine couples Saab’s E85-capable BioPower technology with all-wheel-drive for the first time. A 180 hp (132 kW), two-stage 1.9-liter turbo diesel option is also available with two-wheel drive transmission.
Saab is splitting off from General Motors, which acquired 50% of Saab in 1990 and subsequently acquired the remaining shares. (Earlier post). On 20 February, the Vänersborg District Court in Sweden approved the request for a reorganization and restructuring which Saab’s representative had submitted earlier in the morning.
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USDA Long-Term Projections See Ongoing But Slower Growth in Corn Use for Ethanol
February 13, 2009
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| Projected US corn use through 2018. Source: USDA. Click to enlarge. |
While expansion in the ethanol industry will continue over the next ten years, there will be slower growth for corn-based ethanol, largely reflecting moderate growth in overall gasoline consumption in the United States, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Long-Term Agricultural Projections released on 12 Feb. By 2018, ethanol production will account for about 35% of US corn use, and corn-based ethanol production will exceed 9% of annual gasoline consumption, according to the report.
Ethanol production in the United States has increased to more than 9 billion gallons in 2008, most of it from corn. Close to a third of total corn use is expected to go to ethanol production in the 2008/09 corn crop year.
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EPA Approves On-Road Testing for Hydrous Ethanol Blends
February 11, 2009
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has granted a testing exemption to Renergie, Inc. to investigate the in-vehicle use of different blends of hydrous ethanol. Under the test program, the first of its kind in the US, Renergie will use variable blending pumps, not splash blending, to precisely dispense hydrous ethanol blends of E10, E20, E30, and E85 to test blend optimization with respect to fuel economy, engine emissions, and vehicle drivability. Sixty vehicles will be involved in the test program which will last for a period of 15 months.
In ethanol production, the “beer” resulting from the fermentation is processed in distillation columns where an azeotropic mixture of ethanol and water is separated out from the rest of the stillage. This product is referred to as hydrous ethanol—about 95% ethanol and 5% water. To be used as a supplementary blend in low levels with gasoline, this hydrous ethanol needs to be dehydrated, resulting in anhydrous ethanol.
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VeraSun Obtains $280M “Stalking Horse” Bid from Valero for Six Ethanol Facilities; Seeking to Sell All Assets
February 07, 2009
VeraSun Energy Corporation, one of the US’ largest corn ethanol producers, has signed an agreement with Valero Energy Corporation, one of the US’ largest petroleum refiners, to sell substantially all of the assets relating to five VeraSun ethanol production facilities—Aurora, South Dakota; Charles City, Fort Dodge, and Hartley, Iowa; Welcome, Minnesota—and a development site in Reynolds, Indiana. The six sites have a combined ethanol production capacity of 670 million gallons per year.
The Valero purchase agreement provides for a purchase price of $280 million, plus the value of inventory and certain pre-paid expenses, subject to certain customary adjustments.
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Ricardo Introducing Ethanol Boost Direct Injection Engine Technology
February 06, 2009
Ricardo, Inc. is introducing Ethanol Boosted Direct Injection (EBDI) technology to optimize flex-fuel engines to a level of performance the company says will exceed gasoline engine efficiency and approach levels previously reached only by diesel engines.
Current flex-fuel engines pay a fuel economy penalty of about 30% compared to gasoline when operated on ethanol blends such as E85. The EBDI technology takes full advantage of ethanol’s higher octane and higher heat of vaporization to “turn the gasoline-ethanol equation upside down”, according to Ricardo President Dean Harlow.
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Dacia Broadens Fuel Efficient and Low Emission Offerings With LPG and E85 Engines, new 1.2L Gasoline Unit
February 03, 2009
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| The Sandero 1.4 LPG. Click to enlarge. |
Dacia, a member of the Renault group, is broadening its offerings of fuel-efficient and low-emissions engines. During 2009, Dacia will introduce the Sandero and Logan 1.4 LPG, Logan MCV 1.6 LPG, and the Sandero 1.6 E85 bioethanol. Sandero and Logan will also be available with a new gasoline engine, the 1.2 16V 75 hp, with CO2 emissions of 139 g/km.
LPG. The 1.4L LPG (75 hp / 56 kW) and 1.6L LPG (90 hp / 67 kW) engines reduce CO2 emissions by up to 12% compared with gasoline power, and offer lower emissions of criteria pollutants.
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Scientists Publish Complete Genetic Blueprint of Sorghum
January 29, 2009
Scientists at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Joint Genome Institute (JGI) and several partner institutions have published the sequence and analysis of the complete genome of sorghum, a major food and fodder plant with high potential as a bioenergy crop. The genome data will aid scientists in optimizing sorghum and other crops not only for food and fodder use, but also for biofuels production. The comparative analysis of the sorghum genome appears in the 29 January edition of the journal Nature.
Prized for its drought resistance and high productivity, sorghum is currently the second most prevalent biofuels crop in the United States, behind corn. Grain sorghum produces the same amount of ethanol per bushel as corn while utilizing one-third less water.
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USDA to Advance Development of Advanced Biofuels and Other Renewables; Provide Support for Struggling Corn-Ethanol Industry
January 26, 2009
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will advance R&D and pursue opportunities to support the development of advanced biofuels, wind power, and other renewable energy sources, said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. Vilsack was discussing his priorities as Secretary of Agriculture during a teleconference call with the media.
Vilsack said that the USDA needs to make sure that the existing biofuels industry has the necessary support to survive the current challenging market. For example, the USDA will research, develop and promote best practices to improve the efficiency of corn ethanol plants, Vilsack said. USDA also will promote policies to accelerate the development of next-generation biofuels.
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New Catalyst Can Efficiently Oxidize Ethanol to CO2 at Room Temperature; Boost for Direct Ethanol Fuel Cells
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| Model of the electrocatalyst for ethanol oxidation consisting of platinum-rhodium clusters on a surface of tin dioxide. Click to enlarge. |
A team of scientists at the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Brookhaven National Laboratory, in collaboration with researchers from the University of Delaware and Yeshiva University, has developed a new ternary (Pt/Rh/SnO2) electrocatalyst that could make direct ethanol fuel cells feasible.
Consisting of platinum and rhodium deposited on carbon-supported tin dioxide nanoparticles, the new catalyst can split C–C bonds in ethanol at room temperature in acid solutions, facilitating its oxidation at low potentials to CO2—a capability which has not been achieved with existing catalysts, according to the researchers. A paper on the work was published online 25 January in the journal Nature Materials.
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Study Finds Recent Improvements in Corn Ethanol Production Result in 48-59% Less Direct-Effect GHG Than Gasoline
January 24, 2009
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| Net energy yield (NEY) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction compared to gasoline from different types of corn-ethanol systems used as default scenarios in the BESS model. NEY includes ethanol plus coproduct energy credit minus energy inputs. A closed-loop biorefinery with anaerobic digestion (CL) reduced GHG emissions by 67%. Credit: Yale Univ. Click to enlarge. |
Direct-effect GHG emissions from corn ethanol are equivalent to a 48% to 59% reduction compared to gasoline—a twofold to threefold greater reduction than reported in previous studies—as a result of recent improvements in efficiency throughout the production process, according to a study by researchers at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL).
The team of UNL researchers evaluated dry-mill ethanol plants that use natural gas. Such plants account for nearly 90% of current production capacity. An open-access paper on the study was published 21 January in the Journal of Industrial Ecology.
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Monsanto Moves Closer to Launch of First Drought-Tolerant Corn Product
January 07, 2009
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| Five years of field trials have shown yield improvements delivered by the drought-tolerant corn. Source: Monsanto. Click to enlarge. |
Monsanto Company’s first-generation drought-tolerant corn product has moved to the fourth and final phase of development before an anticipated market launch early in the next decade, according to Monsanto’s annual update of its Research and Development (R&D) pipeline. Monsanto has submitted the product to the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) for regulatory clearance.
Drought-tolerant corn is designed to provide farmers yield stability during periods when water supply is scarce by mitigating the effects of drought—or water stress—within a corn plant.
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GM Presents 2010 Cadillac SRX Crossover; New 3.0L Direct-Injected E85 Engine as Standard
January 05, 2009
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| The new direct injection 3.0L E85 capable engine in the SRX. Click to enlarge. |
GM presented the new 2010 Cadillac SRX Crossover, featuring a new design and more-efficient engine choices. The new SRX, a mid-sized luxury crossover, will debut at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit next week.
A new, 3.0L direct injected and E85 capable V6 engine is standard and a new, 2.8L turbocharged V6 is optional. Direct injection enables a 25% reduction in hydrocarbon emissions. Fuel economy in the mid-20s on the highway is expected, but testing isn’t yet complete.
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USDA Reduces Forecast of Corn Consumption for Ethanol by 7.5%
December 23, 2008
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| Forecast corn use for ethanol. Click to enlarge. |
The December edition of the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) drops the projected use of corn for ethanol production by 300 million bushels for 2008/09 to 3,700 million bushels from its November forecast of 4,000 million bushels. The lower consumption figure still represents a 22.3% increase over estimated corn use for ethanol in 2007/08.
Estimated corn consumption for ethanol production in 2007/08 was 3,026 million bushels, according to the USDA. Consumption for 2006/2007 was 2,119 million bushels.
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New US EIA Energy Outlook Projects Flat Oil Consumption to 2030, Slower Growth in Energy Use and CO2 Emissions, and Reduced Import Dependence; 2% PHEV New Sales Share by 2030
December 17, 2008
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| The AEO2009 reference case projects no increase in petroleum-based liquid fuels consumption, as biofuel use grows. Click to enlarge. |
The Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009) reference case released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects virtually no growth in US oil consumption through 2030, reflecting the combined effect of recently enacted CAFE standards, requirements for increased use of renewable fuels, and an assumed rebound in oil prices as the world economy recovers.
With overall liquid fuel demand in the AEO2009 reference case growing by 1 million barrels per day between 2007 and 2030, increased use of domestically-produced biofuels, and rising domestic oil production spurred by higher prices, the net import share of total liquids supplied, including biofuels, declines from 58% in 2007 to less than 40% in 2025 before increasing to 41% in 2030.
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Study Concludes Wind-Powered BEV and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Best Options, Biofuels the Worst to Address Climate, Energy Security and Pollution
December 13, 2008
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| A combined weighted ranking of the 12 combinations of energy sources and vehicle type against 11 impact categories. Click to enlarge. |
A new study by Stanford University professor Mark Jacobson (earlier post) reviews and ranks major proposed energy-related solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy security while considering impacts of the solutions on eleven different factors ranging from resource availability to mortality. To place electricity and liquid fuel options on an equal footing, Jacobson considered 12 combinations of energy sources and vehicle type: nine electric power sources (solar-PV, CSP, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, wave, tidal, nuclear, and coal with CCS) and two liquid fuel options (corn-E85, cellulosic E85) in combination with three vehicle technologies (battery-electric, BEVs; hydrogen fuel cell, HFCVs; and flex-fuel E85 vehicles).
The overall rankings of the combinations (from best to worst) were: (1) wind-powered battery-electric vehicles (BEVs); (2) wind-powered hydrogen fuel cell vehicles; (3) concentrated-solar-powered-BEVs; (4) geothermal-powered-BEVs; (5) tidal-powered-BEVs; (6) solar-photovoltaic-powered-BEVs; (7) wave-powered-BEVs; (8) hydroelectric-powered-BEVs; (9-tie) nuclear-powered-BEVs; (9-tie) coal-with-carbon-capture-powered-BEVs; (11) corn-E85 vehicles; and (12) cellulosic-E85 vehicles. His findings are published online in an open access article in the journal Energy & Environmental Science.
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USDA Seeks Public Comment on Deregulating Corn Genetically Modified to Facilitate Ethanol Production
November 27, 2008
The US Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) is seeking public comment on a petition submitted by Syngenta Seeds, Inc. to deregulate corn genetically engineered (GE) to express high levels of a novel alpha-amylase enzyme—a thermal-tolerant digestive enzyme that turns the corn’s starch into sugar for ethanol. (Earlier post.)
Microbially produced alpha-amylases are commonly used commercially in the starch-processing step during corn dry-grind and wet milling processing for ethanol production. Syngenta’s concept for its engineered corn, designated as transformation Event 3272, is that the grain will serve as the source of amylase enzyme in the dry-grind ethanol process, replacing the addition of microbially produced enzyme.
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VERBIO Grain Ethanol Can Emit Up to 80% Less CO2 on Lifecycle Basis Than Gasoline
November 26, 2008
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| Greenhouse gas emissions of the individual ethanol production process steps. Red line is the German BioNachV basic value. Click to enlarge. |
Bioethanol produced from grain (rye or wheat) by German biofuels producer VERBIO Vereinigte BioEnergie AG can emit up to 80% less CO2 than gasoline on a lifecycle basis, depending upon the feedstock and facility design, according to a study carried out by the Heidelberg IFEU Institute (Institute for Energy and Environmental Research) and commissioned by the VERBIO.
VERBIO is a leading producer and supplier of biodiesel and bioethanol in Europe, with nominal annual capacity of around 450,000 tonnes of biodiesel (~136 million gallons US) and 300,000 tonnes of ethanol (~100 million gallons US). The study examined ethanol production at VERBIO’s two facilities in Schwedt/Oder and Zörbig, with the aim of determining how much CO2 can be avoided under the prevailing production conditions. The results show that all the techniques and plants under investigation return significantly better CO2 savings than the 30% which are specified in the German Biomass Sustainability Ordinance (BioNachV).
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EPA Raises Renewable Fuel Requirement to 10.21% for 2009; 11.1B Gallons
November 19, 2008
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) raised the 2009 Renewable Fuel Standard to 10.21% to ensure that at least 11.1 billion gallons of renewable fuels be blended into transportation gasoline. This standard is used by obligated parties—refiners, importers and blenders (other than oxygen blenders)—to calculate their renewable volume obligation. The EPA expects the 11.1 billion gallons of renewable fuel required in 2009 ultimately to include approximately 0.5 billion gallons of biodiesel and renewable diesel.
The 2009 standard marks a 23.3% increase by volume of the 2008 RFS of 9 billion gallons, but a 31.6% increase by percentage volume from 7.76% in 2008. The larger relative increase is due to expectations of lower fuel consumption in 2009.
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Ethanol Trade Group Says Growing Grain Ethanol Production Is a Minor Factor in Land Use Changes
November 17, 2008
The amount of agricultural land required to produce 15 billion gallons of grain (e.g., corn) ethanol in the United States by 2015, as required by the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA), is likely to be less than 1% of total world cropland, according to projections from Informa Economics cited in a new report released by the Renewable Fuels Association, the national trade association for the US ethanol industry.
According to the report, “Understanding Land Use Change and US Ethanol Expansion,” gains in agricultural productivity, coupled with the contribution of feed produced as an ethanol co-product, are expected to mitigate the need for conversion of non-agricultural lands to support expanded US biofuels production.
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Gevo and ICM Ally to Commercialize Production of Butanols and Hydrocarbons From Retrofitted Ethanol Plants
November 05, 2008
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| Synthetic networks for non-fermentative alcohol production from glucose in engineered E. coli developed by Dr. Liao at UCLA and licensed by Gevo. The red arrows represent the two-step conversion (KDC/ADH) of 2-keto acids to alcohols. Click to enlarge. Adapted from Atsumi et al. 2008 |
Gevo, Inc. and ICM, Inc. have formed a strategic alliance for the commercial development of Gevo’s Integrated Fermentation Technology (GIFT) that enables the production of isobutanol and hydrocarbons from retrofitted ethanol plants.
Under terms of the agreement, Gevo’s demonstration plant will be located at ICM’s St. Joseph, Mo., biofuels research center. ICM will serve as the exclusive engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor for the retrofit of ethanol plants utilizing GIFT. Gevo will be ICM’s exclusive technology partner for the production of butanols, pentanols and propanols. Gevo says that the strategic alliance will reduce the time needed to reach commercial scale and provide a competitive advantage as Gevo executes its global development plans.
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Monsanto Acquires Brazilian Sugarcane Breeding and Genomics Companies for $290M
November 03, 2008
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| Sugarcane, a monocot, can benefit from Monsanto’s existing work on its corn platform. Click to enlarge. |
Monsanto is acquiring Aly Participações Ltda., which operates the sugarcane breeding and biotechnology companies, CanaVialis S.A. and Alellyx S.A., both of which are based in Brazil. The $290-million (R$616 million) cash purchase marks a major move by Monsanto into the large-acre row crop. Monsanto said that the acquisition was driven by long-term changes driving greater global demand for food and biofuel sources.
CanaVialis is the world’s largest private sugarcane breeding company. Through its breeding activities, CanaVialis is developing and commercializing proprietary germplasm that is anticipated to bring significant yields to sugarcane over publicly available varieties. Alellyx is an applied genomics company that is focused on developing biotech traits primarily for sugarcane.
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VeraSun Files for Chapter 11
November 01, 2008
VeraSun Energy Corporation, one of the nation’s largest corn ethanol producers, has filed voluntary petitions for relief under chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code to enhance liquidity while they reorganize.
VeraSun hedged its corn purchases during the price spike in the summer when cost per bushel had soared to nearly $8. The collapse of corn pricing (December corn is currently just above $4 per bushel) left the company stuck with contracts at the much higher price. Beginning in the third quarter, worsening capital market conditions and a tightening of trade credit resulted in severe constraints on the company’s liquidity position.
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Ethanol Organizations Pushing for Mid-Range Blends; Splash-Blending Pumps for Retailers
October 31, 2008
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| A splash-blending pump. Click to enlarge. Source: EPIC/ACE |
The American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE) and The Ethanol Promotion and Information Council (EPIC) are pushing for wider deployment of mid-range ethanol blends via the use of splash-blending pumps at retail sites. Mid-range ethanol blends (e.g., E15, E20, E30, etc.) can legally be used in flexible-fuel vehicles (FFVs) in the US. Use in non-FFVs is not currently legal, although it is under focused study. (Earlier post.)
In a webinar primarily targeted to petroleum marketers (e.g., fuel station owners) Ron Lamberty from ACE outlined the organization’s immediate rationale for opposing universal E10 blends, which is derived from the current structure of financial incentives around ethanol provision and use in the US, and its focus on preserving splash blending.
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Studies: Corn Ethanol Production Has Smaller Carbon Footprint than Gasoline and Will Continue to Improve; Room for Growth Without Affecting Food and Feed
October 28, 2008
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| Projected GWI of future corn ethanol plants, with gasoline baseline and weighted average. Click to enlarge. Data: Korves (2008) |
The Illinois Corn Growers Association (ICGA) published two new studies—one a case study of an existing corn ethanol plant, the other a forecast through 2030—that conclude that the production of corn ethanol results in a smaller lifecycle carbon footprint than that of gasoline—significantly so in some cases. The reports also conclude that ongoing improvements in crop yield and more efficient production technologies will continue to improve the carbon profile of the biofuel, while also allowing room for expansion without impact on food or feed supplies.
The Global Warming and Land Use Impact of Corn Ethanol Produced at the Illinois River Energy Center was written by Dr. Steffen Mueller, principal research economist at the University of Illinois at Chicago’s Energy Resources Center, with Ken Copenhaver, Institute for Technology Development and Michelle Wander, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. The Potential for Corn Ethanol in Meeting the Energy Needs of the United States in 2016-2030 was written by Ross Korves, economic policy analyst at ProExporter Network.
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Kinder Morgan Successfully Completes Tests of Ethanol Transport in Pipeline: To Offer the Service by Mid-November
October 19, 2008
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| A pig train will prepare the pipeline for ethanol transport. Click to enlarge. Source: KMP |
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP), the largest independent owner/operator of refined products pipelines in the US, recently successfully completed a series of tests to demonstrate the commercial feasibility of transporting batched denatured ethanol is the 195-mile, 16-inch gasoline pipeline between Tampa and Orlando, Florida. The pipeline is one of its Central Florida Pipeline Company’s assets.
KMP is finalizing mechanical modifications to the pipeline to support ethanol transportation, and intends to offer this service to its customers by mid-November. The company has also completed modifications to tanks, truck racks and related infrastructure for new or expanded ethanol service at various terminals in the Southeast and Pacific Northwest. KMP said that it has invested approximately $60 million in these ethanol-related projects.
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GM Developing Global Advanced Biofuels Program
October 13, 2008
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| A portion of the current biofuels component of GM’s roadmap to improved energy diversity and reduced emissions. Click to enlarge. |
GM has been steadily building a global advanced biofuels program as one element of its efforts to reduce the use of petroleum and decrease greenhouse gas emissions.
The company’s approach goes beyond simply trying to generate support for flex-fuel vehicles (“Live Green, Go Yellow”, earlier post) and fostering an E85 refueling infrastructure in the US. The more aggressive focus on advanced biofuels has resulted in its investment in two emergent lignocellulosic ethanol companies—Coskata (earlier post) and Mascoma (earlier post)—as well as the establishment of a collaborative bioenergy research center based at Tsinghua University in China as part of its larger Global Energy System Center work.
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I-65 Biofuel Corridor from Indiana to Alabama Complete
October 10, 2008
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| The I-65 Biofuels Corridor, with some of the station locations marked on the map (the numbers refer to the timeline of events on the promotional drive.) Click to enlarge. |
Interstate 65 is now “America’s First Biofuels Corridor” with the conclusion of a project to make E85 Ethanol and B20 Biodiesel available the entire 886-mile length of the Interstate, from Gary, Indiana to Mobile, Alabama. A driver is now no more than a quarter of a tank’s drive from a participating E85 retailer.
The $1.3 million federal project involved Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama, the four states through which I-65 travels. The project funded 31 E85 and five B20 stations in the states and one biodiesel blending facility on the Indiana-Ohio border. Indiana has 19 E85 pumps; Kentucky has one E85 pump; Tennessee has two E85 pumps; Alabama has eight E85/B20 pumps.
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GM Europe Equips Cadillac BLS with New 1.9L Diesel and 2.0L Flex-fuel Engines
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| The Cadillac BLS. |
GM Europe is offering two new engines on its 2008 Cadillac BLS: a new 132 kW (177 hp) diesel unit and a 147 kW (197 hp) Flexpower gasoline-ethanol flex-fuel engine. The 2008 Cadillac BLS range is now available with a choice of two common-rail diesel and four gasoline engines; all six engines are turbocharged.
Engine outputs range from 110 kW (147 hp) to 188 kW (252 hp); every engine is available with manual or automatic transmission.
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Preliminary Test Report Shows No Significant Change in Vehicle Emissions from Intermediate Ethanol Blends
October 07, 2008
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| Average percentage change in criteria emissions and fuel economy for all vehicles compared to E0 fuel on the LA92 cycle. Bars show average for all vehicles, while discrete data points show the change for each vehicle tested. Click to enlarge. |
A preliminary report released by the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) on the use of intermediate E15 and E20 ethanol blends (15% and 20% ethanol respectively) in 13 vehicles and 28 small non-road engines found that most of the regulated vehicle emissions from E15 and E20 use were within the normal test variation. No statistically significant change was detected.
The E10 (10% ethanol) blend market in the US will likely be saturated (at less than 15 billion gallons per year) in the next few years, possibly as soon as 2010. At the same time, the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) calls for 36 billion gallons of renewable fuel by 2022. The DOE says that while it remains committed to expanding the E85 infrastructure, that market represented less than 1% of the ethanol consumed in 2007 and will not be able to absorb projected volumes of ethanol in the near-term. Given this reality, DOE and others have begun assessing the viability of using intermediate ethanol blends as a way to accommodate growing volumes of ethanol. (Earlier post.)
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USDA & DOE Release National Biofuels Action Plan; UN FAO Report Calls For Review of Biofuels Policies
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| NBAP top-level advanced biofuels commercialization timeline. Click to enlarge. |
The US Departments of Agriculture (USDA) and Energy (DOE) released the National Biofuels Action Plan (NBAP), an interagency plan detailing the collaborative efforts of Federal agencies to accelerate the development of a sustainable biofuels industry.
Separately, in a new edition of its annual publication The State of Food and Agriculture (SOFA) 2008, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) called for an urgent review of biofuel policies and subsidies to preserve the goal of world food security, protect poor farmers, promote broad-based rural development and ensure environmental sustainability.
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Biofuels Accounted for 2.6% of UK Road Fuel in First Reporting Quarter
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| Biodiesel accounted for 84% of the renewable road fuel in the UK in the first reporting quarter. Click to enlarge. Source: RFA |
The Renewable Fuels Agency (RFA), the UK’s independent sustainable fuels regulator, released its first interim quarterly report which includes disclosure of company performance on the supply of biofuels under the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO).
In the year to April 2009, fossil fuel companies are obliged to supply 2.5% biofuel in UK road fuel. Biofuels accounted for 2.61% in the first quarter. More biodiesel (84%) has been supplied than bioethanol (16%). The carbon reduction achieved by the use of biofuels (44%) during the first three months of the obligation is greater than the 40% target set by the Government for the first year of the RTFO.
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New Study Says High Grain Prices Are Likely Here to Stay
September 15, 2008
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| Good and Irwin suggest that the market is entering its third period of sustained increases in grain prices. Click to enlarge. |
An ethanol-influenced spike in grain prices will likely hold, yielding the first sustained increase for corn, wheat and soybean prices in more than three decades, according to new research by two University of Illinois farm economists.
Corn could average $4.60 a bushel in Illinois, nearly double the average $2.42 a bushel from 1973 to 2006, said Darrel Good and Scott Irwin, professors of agriculture and consumer economics. Price swings stemming from weather or other market variables could send corn as high as $6.70 a bushel or down to $3, based on a review of market data dating back to the mid-1900s, according to the report “The New Era of Corn, Soybean and Wheat Prices.”
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India Sets Target of 20% Biofuels by 2017
September 12, 2008
India’s Cabinet approved implementation of the National Biofuel Policy that sets an indicative target of 20% ethanol and biodiesel in transportation fuel by 2017.
The country currently sells 5% ethanol blended gasoline (E5) and has a number of pilot projects underway with biodiesel. The ethanol component is due to double next month to 10% (E10), but availability of sugarcane for ethanol feedstock may hinder achieving that deadline.
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Report: Global Refinery Octane Requirements to Decline
September 02, 2008
A new Global Refining Octane Outlook report by Hart Energy Consulting concludes that while the global gasoline market octane will gradually increase by half a point through 2020, requirements for global refinery octane will decline between 2007 and 2020, affected by outside component contributions—e.g., merchant ether and ethanol—and the impact of fuel quality requirements.
Global octane markets have been volatile as driven by refining capacity constraints, gasoline sulfur reductions (and related refinery processing octane loss), removal of MTBE from markets, upgrade of ultra low octane markets and final stages of lead removal. Markets have experienced periods of high octane premiums with US premiums peaking at 5 to 7 cents per octane-gallon.
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Study: A Regional Analysis of Sweet Potato and Cassava Yield for Ethanol Production
August 20, 2008
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| Calculated bioethanol yield per hectare. Click to enlarge. Data: Ziska (2008) |
A study by Agricultural Research Service (ARS) scientists found that sweet potatoes grown in Maryland and Alabama, and tropical cassava grown in Alabama, yielded between two to three times as much carbohydrate (starch, sucrose, glucose) for fuel ethanol production via fermentation as field corn grown in those states.
Dr. Lew Ziska, a plant physiologist at the ARS Crop Systems and Global Change Laboratory in Beltsville, Md., and colleagues at Beltsville and at the ARS National Soil Dynamics Laboratory in Auburn, Ala., performed the study. The research is unique in comparing the root crops to corn, and in growing all three crops simultaneously in two different regions of the country.
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New Low-Cost Non-noble Metal Catalyst for Hydrogen Production from Biofuels
Researchers at Ohio State University (OSU) have developed a new cobalt-based catalyst for the steam reforming of bio-derived liquids into hydrogen with 90% yield, at 350°C (660°F), and without the use of precious metals such as platinum or rhodium.
Umit Ozkan, professor of chemical and biomolecular engineering at OSU, and her colleagues presented the research today at the American Chemical Society meeting in Philadelphia. Ozkan said that their catalyst costs around $9/kg ($0.25/ounce), while rhodium costs around $9,000/ounce ($317,466/kg).
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Alcohol Boosting Enables Significant Downsizing of Heavy-Duty Diesels to Smaller Gasoline Engines
August 09, 2008
Using a direct-injected alcohol fuel as a second, boosting fuel can allow a turbo-charged, high-compression ratio spark-ignited gasoline engine to replace larger diesels in certain heavy-duty applications, according to work being done by Ethanol Boosting Systems, LLC (EBS), a spin-off from MIT. (Earlier post.)
A study by EBS supported by Volvo Powertrain North America found that for a given engine size, an alcohol-boosted gasoline engine (spark-ignited, SI) could operate with about twice the torque and at higher horsepower than a baseline diesel. In a study presented at the DEER (Diesel Engine-Efficiency and Emissions Research) conference last week, EBS simulated a scaled, downsized 7-liter alcohol-boosted SI engine operating at a 14:1 compression ratio and found that it exhibited higher predicted efficiency than the baseline 11-liter diesel engine when operating over the boosted operating points.
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US EPA Denies Texas Waiver Request; Biofuel Mandates Remain 9B Gallons for 2008, 11.1B for 2009
August 07, 2008
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Stephen L. Johnson has denied the waiver request submitted by the state of Texas temporarily to halve the levels of biofuels required by the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS). (Earlier post.) As a result, the required total volume of renewable fuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel, mandated by law to be blended into the fuel supply will remain at 9 billion gallons in 2008 and 11.1 billion gallons in 2009.
In his request for the waiver, Texas Governor Rick Perry said that the “artificial demand for grain-derived ethanol is devastating the livestock industry in Texas and needlessly creating a negative impact on our state’s otherwise strong economy while driving up food prices around the world.”
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OECD Report: Government Biofuel Policies Costly and Ineffective
July 16, 2008
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| The estimated impact on ethanol production of the removal of biofuel support policies, 2013-2017 average. Click to enlarge. |
Government support of biofuel production in OECD countries is costly, has a limited impact on reducing greenhouse gases and improving energy security, and has an impact on world crop prices, according to a new study by the OECD’s Directorate of Trade and Agriculture.
The report, Economic Assessment of Biofuel Support Policies, estimates that in the US, Canada and the European Union, government support for the supply and use of biofuels will rise to around US$25 billion per year by 2015 from about US$11 billion in 2006. It is estimated that these support policies would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from transport fuel by only 0.5% to 0.8% by 2015.
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EPA Funds $900K UC Davis Study on Alt-Fuel Vehicle Emissions and Climate Change Impact on Those Emissions
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is funding a $900,000 research project at UC Davis to learn what emissions millions of alternative-fuel vehicles might produce and how climate change might affect those emissions. Alt-fuel vehicles to be studied include E85 vehicles; hybrid-electric cars; plug-in hybrid electric cars; and heavy-duty trucks fueled with biodiesel.
The research is urgently needed to improve forecasts of how climate change will affect air quality in California, said Michael Kleeman, the project’s lead researcher and a UC Davis professor of civil and environmental engineering.
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UK Gallagher Review Calls for Significant Slowdown in Introduction of Biofuels
July 07, 2008
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| Proposed trajectory of EU biofuels policy. The orange section provides a guaranteed market for renewable fuels to develop while control measures are introduced. Green illustrates a proposed mandatory obligation for advanced technology fuels from appropriate feedstocks. The blue section shows how the market for current technology might develop beyond 2013/14 if measures to ensure the sustainability of biofuels supplied proved successful including in avoiding indirect land-use change. Click to enlarge |
The just-released Gallagher Review of the indirect effects of biofuels production, requested by the UK government from the Renewable Fuels Agency (RFA) earlier this year, concludes that while there is a future for a sustainable biofuels industry, feedstock production must avoid agricultural land that would otherwise be used for food production.
According to the Review, the displacement of existing agricultural production, due to biofuel demand, is accelerating land-use change and, if left unchecked, will reduce biodiversity and may even cause greenhouse gas emissions rather than savings. As a result, the Review Calls for a significant slowdown in the introduction of biofuels “until adequate controls to address displacement effects are implemented and are demonstrated to be effective.”
