New analysis by IHS Markit suggests that automakers failing to meet 2021 fleet CO2 emissions compliance for passenger vehicles sold in the European Union (EU) could be fined more than €14 billion (US$16 billion) in 2021. Legislators in the European Union (EU) are imposing a new passenger car fleet CO2... Read more →

The California Air Resources Board has released the 2018 issue of its Annual Evaluation of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Deployment and Hydrogen Fuel Station Network Development, pursuant to the requirements of AB 8 (2013). This report is the fifth annual publication. The report describes “a significant shift in momentum” in... Read more →

A new report by the progressive policy institute Center for American Progress estimates that the US needs to add 14 million new PEVs and more than 330,000 new public charging outlets by the end of 2025 in order to meet its Paris Agreement targets. The report, which focuses specifically on... Read more →

Considering electrification, autonomy and sharing (the “Three Revolutions”), a team from Boston University and the University of California, Berkeley projects that electricity use from light duty vehicle (LDV) transport will likely be in the 570–1140 TWh range—13–26%—respectively, of total electricity demand in 2050. Their open-access study appears in the journal Energy... Read more →

Roskill: refined lithium supply expected to treble to 900kt by 2027, driven by use in batteries

Growth in the consumption of lithium accelerated in 2017 by more than 10% on 2016 levels to reach 211,000t lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), according to a new report by Roskill. The lithium-ion battery industry has been, and will continue to be, the main catalyst for growth; it accounted for close... Read more →

Bloomberg NEF forecasts falling battery prices enabling surge in wind and solar to 50% of global generation by 2050

Wind and solar power generation will surge to almost 50% of world generation by 2050 (“50 by 50”), supported by precipitous reductions in cost, and the advent of cheaper and cheaper batteries that will enable electricity to be stored and discharged to meet shifts in demand and supply, according to... Read more →

How many vehicles can the earth sustain?

by Michael Sivak. ​One of the hallmarks of the good life in developed countries is the freedom to move about as we choose in personal vehicles. However, as populous developing countries are gaining in economic power, people in those countries are asking for the same mobility that people in developed... Read more →

The growing demand for ride-sharing services worldwide is spawning a new category of vehicles with a flexible interior that can be individually tailored to the needs of their users. In a new report, consultancy Roland Berger forecasts that one million of these specially designed vehicles, many of them electric, are... Read more →

A team from Argonne and Oak Ridge National Laboratories in the US and the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI and German Aerospace Center in Germany has reviewed and compared 40 market diffusion models for plug-in vehicles to find similarities or differences and make recommendations for future improvements... Read more →

The electrification of road transport will move into top gear in the second half of the 2020s, due to tumbling battery costs and larger-scale manufacturing, with sales of electric cars surging to 28%, and those of electric buses to 84%, of their respective global markets by 2030. The latest long-term... Read more →

Roskill: graphite prices could push higher on tightening markets for batteries & electrodes

Synthetic graphite electrode prices rose nine-fold through the first three quarters of 2017, increasing from US$1,748/t in January 2017 to a high of US$16,309/t in September, according to Roskill Information Services. Despite some fallback during the winter months, prices remained above US$15,600/t through February and March 2018. Spot prices were... Read more →

NOx emissions have not been decreasing as expected in recent years (2011–2015) when comparing top-down estimates from satellites and surface NO2 measurements to the trends predicted from the US Environmental Protection Agency’s emission inventory data, according to a new study by an international team of researchers. In an open-access paper... Read more →

Short-term oil demand is still growing strong and will continue to do so through the end of 2020 despite the market’s increasing focus on electric vehicles and the forecasted future plateau in oil demand, according to new analysis from IHS Markit, a global business information provider. Five-year rolling aggregate global... Read more →

Lithium and cobalt are fundamental components of present lithium-ion batteries. Analysis by researchers at the Helmholtz Institute Ulm (HIU) of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) suggests that, given the foreseen scaling of battery demand up to 2050, each may face supply risks, albeit for different reasons. The researchers present... Read more →

BP outlook: Energy demand grows as fuel mix continues to diversify; EVs in global car parc at 15% by 2040, but electric share of VMT at 30%

The 2018 edition of BP’s Energy Outlook considers the forces shaping the global energy transition out to 2040 and the key uncertainties surrounding that transition. The speed of the energy transition is uncertain and the new Outlook considers a range of scenarios. Its evolving transition scenario, which assumes that government... Read more →

In its new ten-year market outlook to 2027, Roskill, a leading provider of international metals and minerals research, forecasts primary nickel consumption to rise by just under 4% per year between 2017 and 2027, driven by increased consumption by stainless steel producers and by growth in demand in the automotive... Read more →

ExxonMobil’s newly released Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 anticipates that global energy needs will rise about 25% over the period to 2040, led by non-OECD countries. While the mix shifts toward lower-carbon-intensive fuels, the world will need to pursue all economic energy sources, the report says. The Outlook... Read more →

Next 10 report finds California will meet or exceed original target of 1.5M ZEVs by 2025

A newly released analysis produced by Beacon Economics for the nonprofit, nonpartisan think-tank Next 10 has found that California’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) market is on track to meet or exceed a target of 1.5 million ZEVs on California’s roads by 2025. The 1.5-million target, set by California Governor Brown in... Read more →

Five trends are transforming the automotive industry, according to PWC: electrification, autonomy, sharing, connecting and yearly updating, a combination the consultancy is now labeling “eascy”. In a report exploring the impact on the trends on the industry in 2030—“eascy – The five dimensions of automotive transformation”—PwC suggests that as a... Read more →

EIA forecasts US crude oil production rate to break record high in 2018 and again in 2019; 10.3 and 10.8 million b/d

In its latest edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that US crude oil production will average 10.3 million b/d in 2018—the highest annual average production in US history, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970. EIA also forecasts that... Read more →

Business information provider IHS Markit forecasts that more than 33 million autonomous vehicles will be sold globally in 2040—a substantial increase from the 51,000 units forecast for the first year of significant volume in 2021. IHS Markit suggests that the rapid convergence of autonomous driving and mobility services such as... Read more →

In a new study, IHS Markit forecasts that vehicle miles traveled (VMT) will by 2040 grow to an all-time high of around 11 billion miles per year (a 65% increase since 2017) in China, Europe, India and the United States—the key markets examined for the study—and will keep growing. At... Read more →

In a new report (its fourth on electric car adoption) the Boston Consulting Group forecasts that a combination of hybrid and fully electric powertrains will cut the global market share of pure internal combustion engines (ICEs) by about 50% by 2030. ICEs will continue to play a major but changing... Read more →

According to the US Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2015 total petroleum production exceeded all US transportation sector petroleum consumption. The EIA expects petroleum production to be greater than transportation consumption through 2040. Including non-petroleum sources such as ethanol, the production will exceed transportation demand by... Read more →

A new study from the US Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) quantifies how much charging infrastructure would be needed in the United States to support various market growth scenarios for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Under the study’s central scenario (15 million PEVs in 2030), the US would... Read more →

Energy researchers at IHS Markit have completed the first, three-year phase of a massive Permian Basin research project that models and interprets the giant basin’s key geologic characteristics to better estimate its remaining hydrocarbon potential. Initial results indicate the giant basin still holds an estimated 60 billion to 70 billion... Read more →

New analysis by energy, metals and mining consultancy Wood Mackenzie, in collaboration with GTM Research, a Wood Mackenzie company focused on researching decarbonization and the decentralization of energy, suggests that electric vehicles could account for 21% of the global car stock by 2035 under a carbon-constrained scenario. Wood Mackenzie’s carbon-constrained... Read more →

Although consumer electronics—devices such as smartphones and laptops—have traditionally driven the most demand for energy storage devices, transportation and stationary applications will soon become the largest energy storage markets, according to Lux Research. By 2025 the energy storage market will top $100 billion with applications in transportation alone reaching $69... Read more →

Electric vehicles will make up the majority of new car sales worldwide by 2040, and account for 33% of all the light-duty vehicles on the road, according to a new forecast published by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). This represents an aggressive jump compared to BNEF’s previous forecast of 35%... Read more →

Using a stock-flow model based on data from Norway, a researcher at the country’s Institute of Transport Economics (TØI) has calculated the energy transition time lag for motor vehicles under a number of scenarios. In his paper in the journal Energy Policy, Lasse Fridstrøm finds that in the most optimistic... Read more →

ABI Research: V2X gaining momentum in automotive; deployment remains problematic

ABI Research sees V2X (Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) and Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) communications) finally gaining momentum in the smart mobility industry. Illustrating this is a growing number of initiatives, trials, and product launches. Cellular V2X, aggressively promoted by the 5G Automotive Association (5GAA), now offers a potentially more flexible alternative to the legacy... Read more →

A new study by researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder projects the emission impacts of the widespread introduction of inexpensive and efficient electric vehicles into the US light duty vehicle (LDV) sector. The work is reported in a paper in the ACS journal Environmental Science & Technology. Under... Read more →

The US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2017 (AEO2017) Reference case projects a decline in light-duty vehicle energy use between 2018 and 2040 as improvements in fuel economy more than offset increases in light-duty vehicle (LDV) miles. EIA projects that light-duty vehicle energy consumption will decrease 12%—from 16.1... Read more →

A new report from Juniper Research projects that by 2022, 50% of new vehicles will be shipped with V2V (Vehicle-to-Vehicle) hardware, a technology that enables real-time short-range communication between vehicles. The new research, Consumer Connected Cars: Applications, Telematics & V2V 2017-2022, found that the total number of V2V-enabled consumer vehicles... Read more →

UC Davis, ITDP report finds shared mobility essential for realizing full benefits of electrification and automation

A new report from a team at the University of California, Davis, and the New York-based nonprofit Institute for Transportation & Development Policy (ITDP) has concluded that shared mobility is a critical enabler for realizing the benefits of electrification and autonomous driving. The report examines three urban travel scenarios surrounding... Read more →

Germany-based international consultancy Rolad Berger had launched a new publication—the “Automotive Disruption Radar”—to monitor the radical transformation of the automotive industry being driven by four concurrent megatrends: mobility services, autonomous driving, digitalization and electrification (MADE). The Radar analyzes the transformation via 25 selected indicators in five dimensions: Customer interest (e.g.... Read more →

Speaking at the 2017 Geneva Motor Show, Honda Motor Europe’s President and COO, Katsushi Inoue outlined Honda’s commitment to an electric future in Europe, with a specific aim to have electrified powertrains in two-thirds of Honda cars sold in Europe by 2025. Honda’s focus on electrification in Europe will initially... Read more →

China is the global leader in methanol use and has recently expanded its methanol production capacity. Now, a study commissioned by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) from Argus Media (a global provider of analysis on energy and commodities), finds that since the early 2000s, China’s consumption of methanol in... Read more →

The 2017 edition of the BP Energy Outlook, published today, forecasts that global demand for energy will increase by around 30% between 2015 and 2035, an average growth of 1.3% per year. However, this growth in energy demand is significantly lower than the 3.4% per year rise expected in global... Read more →

Honeywell’s Transportation Systems Forecast projects that turbocharged vehicles will acount for 48% of annual global sales by 2021, up 9 percentage points from 2016. This annual sales estimate, combining both passenger and commercial vehicles, would add more than 232 million turbocharged vehicles globally between 2017 and 2021—an increase of 35%... Read more →

J.D. Power, LMC: new vehicle sales in US slide again, 6th time this year

For the second time in three months and the sixth time this year, new-vehicle retail sales in November are expected to slip from year-ago levels, according to a monthly sales forecast developed jointly by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. US new-vehicle retail sales in November are projected to reach 1,128,900... Read more →

New findings from Juniper Research project that the annual production of self-driving cars will reach 14.5 million in 2025, up significantly from only a few thousands in 2020, resulting in a global installed base of more than 22 million consumer vehicles by 2025. The new research, Autonomous Vehicles & ADAS:... Read more →

CCM: demand for ternary Li-ion batteries in China to more than double to 10 GWh in 2016 from 4.4GWh in 2015 due to subsidy fraud and response

In the wake of the news that five alternative energy vehicle (AEV) makers defrauded the Chinese government of about US$150 million in subsidies, the Chinese government adjusted its subsidy policies for alternative energy vehicles. Market analyst CCM believes that the adjustment will change the market structure and that ternary Li-ion... Read more →

In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts that plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales in the US and Canada in 2016 will near 200,000 unit sales, growing by around 62% year-over-year. Navigant further expects significant growth in the North American PEV market over the next few years. In 2016, Navigant Research... Read more →

Led by Tesla, China’s BYD, and Volkswagen, the battery market for plug-in vehicles will rise to $10 billion in 2020, with electric vehicles (EV) emerging as the drivetrain of choice, according to a new forecast by Lux Research. Volkswagen will show the most growth as it focuses on plug-ins following... Read more →

A new report on fuel cell vehicles from IHS Automotive forecasts that global production of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) will reach more than 70,000 vehicles annually by 2027, as more automotive OEMs bring FCEVs to market. However,this will only represent less than 0.1% of all vehicles produced, according... Read more →

A new study by consultancy Roland Berger defines an integrated roadmap for European road transport decarbonization to 2030 and beyond; the current regulatory framework for vehicle emissions, carbon intensity of fuels and use of renewable fuels covers only up to 2020/2021. The study was commissioned by a coalition of fuel... Read more →

ABI Research has defined six transformative paradigms for the automotive industry over the next 25 years: the software-defined car; sensors and big data; the connected car; cooperative mobility and the IoT; electrification; and car sharing/driverless cars. While the first three phases are already underway, the latter three will start to... Read more →

A new MIT Energy Initiative report spearheaded by John Heywood, Sun Jae Professor of Mechanical Engineering Emeritus at MIT, identifies three important paths forward reducing light-duty vehicle energy use and greenhouse gas emissions: improve the existing system and technologies for shorter-term benefits; conserve fuel by changing driver habits for nearer-... Read more →