Green Car Congress
Home Topics Archives About Contact  RSS Headlines
Google search

GCC Web

Forecasts

[Due to the increasing size of the archives, each topic page now contains only the prior 365 days of content. Access to older stories is now solely through the Monthly Archive pages or the site search function.]

Wood Mackenzie: EVs could account for 21% of global car fleet by 2035 under carbon-constrained scenario

August 10, 2017

New analysis by energy, metals and mining consultancy Wood Mackenzie, in collaboration with GTM Research, a Wood Mackenzie company focused on researching decarbonization and the decentralization of energy, suggests that electric vehicles could account for 21% of the global car stock by 2035 under a carbon-constrained scenario.

Wood Mackenzie’s carbon-constrained scenario focuses on consistent, marginal change that will disrupt established markets long before a wholesale switch away from hydrocarbons occurs. Among the elements of the scenario is long-term, double-digit growth for renewable energy—specifically wind and solar power—increasing to 30% of total power supply in 2035, up from 8% today. under the carbon-constrained scenario, petrochemical demand growth remains positive, although to a lesser degree than in the base case. However, the transport sector’s projected adoption of EVs would seriously disrupt oil demand.

More... | Comments (2)

Lux Research: transportation and stationary energy storage passing consumer electronics as largest energy storage markets by next year

July 31, 2017

Although consumer electronics—devices such as smartphones and laptops—have traditionally driven the most demand for energy storage devices, transportation and stationary applications will soon become the largest energy storage markets, according to Lux Research.

By 2025 the energy storage market will top $100 billion with applications in transportation alone reaching $69 billion, Lux forecasts. Transformations in the electricity grid mean that stationary storage has the highest growth rates and will reach $19 billion in 2025.

More... | Comments (1)

BNEF forecasts EVs to hit 54% of new car sales by 2040; decreasing importance of PHEVs

July 06, 2017

Electric vehicles will make up the majority of new car sales worldwide by 2040, and account for 33% of all the light-duty vehicles on the road, according to a new forecast published by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). This represents an aggressive jump compared to BNEF’s previous forecast of 35% EV new car market share by 2040. Under the new forecast, EVs will displace 8 million barrels of transport fuel per day and add 5% to global electricity consumption (1,800 TWh by 2040 up from 6TWh in 2016).

The forecasters said that while plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) sales will play a role in EV adoption from now to 2025, puer battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) will subsequently take over and account for the vast majority of EV sales. The engineering complexity of PHEV vehicle platforms, their cost and dual powertrains make BEVs more attractive over the long-run, BNEF said. BNEF suggested that only in Japan will PHEVs continue to play an important role after 2030.

More... | Comments (6)

Stock-flow modeling suggests energy transition within transportation will take several decades

June 26, 2017

Using a stock-flow model based on data from Norway, a researcher at the country’s Institute of Transport Economics (TØI) has calculated the energy transition time lag for motor vehicles under a number of scenarios.

In his paper in the journal Energy Policy, Lasse Fridstrøm finds that in the most optimistic scenario for the energy transition affecting Norwegian registered vehicles, zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) would constitute 90% of the flow of new passenger cars in 2024; however, 90% penetration of ZEVs into the stock of passenger cars would not occur until 2039.

More... | Comments (16)

ABI Research: V2X gaining momentum in automotive; deployment remains problematic

June 13, 2017

ABI Research sees V2X (Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) and Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) communications) finally gaining momentum in the smart mobility industry. Illustrating this is a growing number of initiatives, trials, and product launches. Cellular V2X, aggressively promoted by the 5G Automotive Association (5GAA), now offers a potentially more flexible alternative to the legacy IEEE 802.11p.

V2X use cases will now include collective perception, remote sensor fusion, and cooperative mobility. This is happening as awareness grows surrounding the critical role of V2X to bring the reliability and robustness needed for level 4/5 vehicle automation.

More... | Comments (0)

Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

June 07, 2017

A new study by researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder projects the emission impacts of the widespread introduction of inexpensive and efficient electric vehicles into the US light duty vehicle (LDV) sector. The work is reported in a paper in the ACS journal Environmental Science & Technology.

Under their optimistic scenario (OPT)—which is based on the assumption that EVs are market-competitive with gasoline vehicles, in particular after 2025—they find 15% and 47% adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Compared to the reference case, in which gasoline vehicles (ICEVs) remain dominant through 2050 (BAU), OPT results in 16% and 36% reductions in LDV greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 2030 and 2050, respectively, corresponding to 5% and 9% reductions in economy-wide emissions.

More... | Comments (7)

EIA projects light-duty vehicle energy use to drop 12% by 2025

May 23, 2017

The US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2017 (AEO2017) Reference case projects a decline in light-duty vehicle energy use between 2018 and 2040 as improvements in fuel economy more than offset increases in light-duty vehicle (LDV) miles.

EIA projects that light-duty vehicle energy consumption will decrease 12%—from 16.1 quadrillion Btu in 2017 to 14.2 quadrillion Btu in 2025—in the AEO2017 Reference case, despite projected growth in vehicle-miles traveled of 5% over the same period. Nearly all of this energy consumption is gasoline, with gasoline consumption by light-duty vehicles projected to fall from 8.7 million barrels per day in 2017 to 7.5 million barrels per day in 2025 (-13.8%).

More... | Comments (7)

Juniper: V2V to feature in >50% of cars sold by 2022

May 17, 2017

A new report from Juniper Research projects that by 2022, 50% of new vehicles will be shipped with V2V (Vehicle-to-Vehicle) hardware, a technology that enables real-time short-range communication between vehicles.

The new research, Consumer Connected Cars: Applications, Telematics & V2V 2017-2022, found that the total number of V2V-enabled consumer vehicles on the road will reach 35 million by 2022, up from less than 150,000 vehicles in 2017. This strong growth rate (376% CAGR) reflects the early stages of roll-out for V2V, but will still only represent 2.7% off all vehicles.

More... | Comments (0)

UC Davis, ITDP report finds shared mobility essential for realizing full benefits of electrification and automation

May 05, 2017

A new report from a team at the University of California, Davis, and the New York-based nonprofit Institute for Transportation & Development Policy (ITDP) has concluded that shared mobility is a critical enabler for realizing the benefits of electrification and autonomous driving.

The report examines three urban travel scenarios surrounding three transportation “revolutions:” vehicle electrification, automation, and widespread shared mobility. The scenarios include: (a) Business as usual (BAU): a future without widespread electrification or automation; (b) “2 Revolutions (2R):” electrification and automation are embraced but shared mobility is not; and (c) “3 Revolutions (3R):” electrification, automation and shared mobility are all widespread.

More... | Comments (5)

Big Oil Betting On Electric Vehicles

May 03, 2017

by Jon LeSage for Oilprice.com

Speaking this week at the Bloomberg New Energy Finance conference in New York, Total SA’s chief energy economist, Joel Couse, forecasted that EVs will make up 15 to 30 percent of global new vehicle sales by 2030.

Oil demand for transportation fuel see its “demand will flatten out,” after 2030, Couse said. “Maybe even decline.

More... | Comments (24)

Roland Berger “Automotive Disruption Radar” focused on MADE: mobility, autonomy, digitalization, electrification

May 01, 2017

Germany-based international consultancy Rolad Berger had launched a new publication—the “Automotive Disruption Radar”—to monitor the radical transformation of the automotive industry being driven by four concurrent megatrends: mobility services, autonomous driving, digitalization and electrification (MADE).

The Radar analyzes the transformation via 25 selected indicators in five dimensions: Customer interest (e.g. via more than 10,000 end-user interviews); regulation; technology; infrastructure; and industry activity. The Roland Berger team analyzes all indicators 10 different countries and will update the Radar on a regular basis.

More... | Comments (0)

Honda Motor Europe: 2/3 of European sales to feature electrified powertrains by 2025; “Electric Vision”

March 07, 2017

Speaking at the 2017 Geneva Motor Show, Honda Motor Europe’s President and COO, Katsushi Inoue outlined Honda’s commitment to an electric future in Europe, with a specific aim to have electrified powertrains in two-thirds of Honda cars sold in Europe by 2025.

Honda’s focus on electrification in Europe will initially be driven by a roll-out of hybrid technology across its automobile range. The first new hybrid model, which will feature Honda’s two-motor hybrid system, will go on sale in 2018.

More... | Comments (1)

EIA: China’s use of methanol in liquid fuels has grown rapidly since 2000; >500K bpd in 2016

February 23, 2017

China is the global leader in methanol use and has recently expanded its methanol production capacity. Now, a study commissioned by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) from Argus Media (a global provider of analysis on energy and commodities), finds that since the early 2000s, China’s consumption of methanol in fuel products has risen sharply. The report estimates consumption to have been more than 500,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2016.

EIA commissioned the study to better understand China’s consumption of methanol and its derivatives. The estimates developed in the study have now been incorporated into EIA’s historical data and forecasts of petroleum and other liquids consumption in China.

More... | Comments (2)

BP Energy Outlook: 30% growth in global demand to 2035; fuel demand continues to rise, even with EVs & fuel efficiency

January 25, 2017

The 2017 edition of the BP Energy Outlook, published today, forecasts that global demand for energy will increase by around 30% between 2015 and 2035, an average growth of 1.3% per year. However, this growth in energy demand is significantly lower than the 3.4% per year rise expected in global GDP, reflecting improved energy efficiency driven by technology improvements and environmental concerns. The Outlook looks at long-term energy trends and develops projections for world energy markets over the next two decades.

While non-fossil fuels are expected to account for half of the growth in energy supplies over the next 20 years, the Outlook projects that oil and gas, together with coal, will remain the main source of energy powering the world economy, accounting for more than 75% of total energy supply in 2035, compared with 86% in 2015.

More... | Comments (17)

Honeywell Transportation Systems Forecast: turbocharged vehicles to account for 48% of annual global sales by 2021; electric boosting emerges

December 09, 2016

Honeywell’s Transportation Systems Forecast projects that turbocharged vehicles will acount for 48% of annual global sales by 2021, up 9 percentage points from 2016. This annual sales estimate, combining both passenger and commercial vehicles, would add more than 232 million turbocharged vehicles globally between 2017 and 2021—an increase of 35% from today.

This year’s forecast recognizes an industry trend for slightly bigger engine sizes in Europe and China as automakers adapt powertrain strategies to tackle updated emissions regulations developed for real-world driving conditions. In these regions, a typical powertrain is a three- or four-cylinder engine with a displacement size between 1.2 liters and 1.7 liters. By rightsizing engines with available technologies, automakers are able to continue applying the benefits of smaller turbocharged engines while fine-tuning powertrain systems to further optimize fuel economy, emissions and performance.

More... | Comments (6)

J.D. Power, LMC: new vehicle sales in US slide again, 6th time this year

November 24, 2016

For the second time in three months and the sixth time this year, new-vehicle retail sales in November are expected to slip from year-ago levels, according to a monthly sales forecast developed jointly by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. US new-vehicle retail sales in November are projected to reach 1,128,900 units, a 2.0% decrease from November 2015 on a selling-day adjusted basis, while total new-vehicle sales are expected to drop 3.4% to 1,381,800.

While the presidential election had the potential to disrupt vehicle sales in the first half of the month, in reality, the impact was minimal, the companies said. This is consistent with past elections when a small suppression of sales during the election was offset by gains post-election.

More... | Comments (7)

Juniper Research: taxi sector to lead self-driving market to >22M consumer vehicles on the road by 2025

November 23, 2016

New findings from Juniper Research project that the annual production of self-driving cars will reach 14.5 million in 2025, up significantly from only a few thousands in 2020, resulting in a global installed base of more than 22 million consumer vehicles by 2025.

The new research, Autonomous Vehicles & ADAS: Adoption, Regulation & Business Models 2016-2025, found that the market adoption of AV (Autonomous Vehicle) technology is set to accelerate over the next few years, driven by increasingly stringent vehicle safety specifications; environmental pressures; and rapid technological developments.

More... | Comments (18)

CCM: demand for ternary Li-ion batteries in China to more than double to 10 GWh in 2016 from 4.4GWh in 2015 due to subsidy fraud and response

October 05, 2016

In the wake of the news that five alternative energy vehicle (AEV) makers defrauded the Chinese government of about US$150 million in subsidies, the Chinese government adjusted its subsidy policies for alternative energy vehicles. Market analyst CCM believes that the adjustment will change the market structure and that ternary Li-ion power batteries—i.e., Li-ion batteries with ternary cathode materials such as LMO, NCM/NCA, LFP, etc.—will be the biggest gainers.

The firm forecasts an immediate boom in demand for ternary Li-ion batteries—mainly used to power alternative energy vehicles—from 4.4GWh in 2015 to 10 GWh in 2016.

More... | Comments (1)

Green Car Congress © 2017 BioAge Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. | Home | BioAge Group