[Due to the increasing size of the archives, each topic page now contains only the prior 365 days of content. Access to older stories is now solely through the Monthly Archive pages or the site search function.]
Technavio forecasts 45% CAGR in automotive fuel cell market through 2019
January 31, 2016
The global fuel cell market in the automotive industry is set to grow at a rapid CAGR of more than 45% (in terms of unit shipments) through 2019, according to a new report by global technology research and advisory company Technavio.
Technavio calculated the market size for 2015-2019 based on the revenue generated from the global units and MW shipments of fuel cells in the automotive industry.
ExxonMobil projects 25% energy demand increase between 2014-2040, 50% decline in carbon intensity; hybrids to be 40% of new car sales
January 25, 2016
Global energy demand will increase 25% between 2014 and 2040, driven by population growth and economic expansion, ExxonMobil forecasts in the 2016 edition of its annual The Outlook for Energy. At the same time, energy efficiency gains and increased use of renewable energy sources and lower carbon fuels, such as natural gas, are expected to help reduce by half the carbon intensity of the global economy.
During the period, the world’s population will increase by about 2 billion people and emerging economies will continue to expand significantly, according to the forecast. Most growth in energy demand will occur in developing nations that are not part of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Per capita income in those countries is likely to increase by 135%.
PwC: electrified vehicle sales on the rise in Europe, continued growth expected
January 13, 2016
PwC’s Autofacts group estimates sales of pure electric, plug-in mild and full hybrids will grow 433% to 2.2 million units by 2021, driven by a number of factors, including regulatory pressure. While alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs)—including hybrids and pure electric—are gaining consumer acceptance in the European Union (EU), even in the face of decreased fuel prices, these reduced emission offerings are still a comparatively low%age of overall vehicle sales in this critical market.
Pure electric and plug-in hybrids vehicle sales grew 82.2% from September 2014 to September 2015, as opposed to mild and full hybrids which increased 22% during the same period. The significant EV growth can be attributed to several factors, according to PwC, including consumer desire for more emission-friendly vehicles, the maturation of pure electric technologies and their positive perception among consumers, and continued government incentives.
IHS: connectivity, infotainment, safety to drive growth in automotive display systems to $18.6B by 2021; > 11% CAGR
December 30, 2015
Driven by continued innovation in vehicle connectivity and safety technologies, global revenue from automotive display systems will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 11% to $18.6 billion by the end of 2021, according to a new forecast by IHS Inc. This will add nearly $9 billion in annual revenue compared to 2015.
Data from the Automotive Display Systems Forecasts from IHS represents production of instrument cluster systems, head-up display systems and center stack display systems as full automotive modules, not just display panels. Center stack display systems are expected to account for half of the overall revenue growth, while head-up display (HUD) systems will deliver the strongest revenue CAGR at nearly 21% from 2015.
Navigant forecasts global annual natural gas vehicle sales to reach 3.9M in 2025, up 62.5% from 2015
December 28, 2015
In its new Natural Gas Vehicles report, Navigant Research forecasts that global annual NGV sales—light-, medium- and heavy-duty—will grow 62.5% from 2.4 million vehicles in 2015 to 3.9 million in 2025.
Navigant forecasts that the number of light-duty NGVs on the world’s roads will double by 2025 to 39.6 million, accounting for 2.6% of all LDVs. Overall, Navigant expects the worldwide market for light-duty NGVs to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3% between 2015 and 2025.
Bain: Germany’s goal of 1M electric cars by 2020 is unattainable; fewer than 50,000 units on road by end of this year
December 23, 2015
The German Federal Government plan to have one million electric cars on its roads by 2020 has failed, according to the analysis of international management consulting firm Bain & Company. By the end of 2015, there will be a total of about 50,000 electric cars and plug-in hybrids on the roads in Germany (about 75% below plan); nevertheless, structural transformation towards electromobility is continuing, according to the firm.
Stricter emission laws and the technological advances in electric drives will accelerate the trend towards e-mobility in the medium term, Bain said.
Navigant forecasts global light duty electrified vehicle sales to exceed 6.0M in 2024; PEVs to account for roughly half
December 21, 2015
In a new report, Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts, Navigant research projects that under its base scenario, global sales of light duty electrified vehicles (i.e., vehicles that use electricity for traction, including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery-electrics) will grow from 2.6 million vehicle sales in 2015 to more than 6.0 million in 2024.
Under a conservative scenario, Navigant forecasts more than 5.8 million electrified vehicles by 2024, while the aggressive scenario sees more than 6.4 million. Navigant estimates that sales of plug-in vehicles (PEVs) accounted for roughly 19% of electrified vehicle sales in 2015; in 2024, Navigant expects light duty PEVs to capture between 47% and 51% of the electrified vehicle market.
KPMG study finds autonomous vehicles & mobility services could add one trillion more vehicle miles traveled annually by 2050
November 26, 2015
Innovations in autonomous vehicles, connectivity, and mobility-on-demand will have a profound impact on consumers, particularly among younger and older people, according to a new study by KPMG. With these age groups set to embrace these technological and transformational changes, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the US will soar by approximately one trillion additional miles per year by 2050.
According to KPMG’s research, which consisted of consumer focus groups in Atlanta, Chicago and Denver, two generations will largely drive consumer demand in the future, the millennials and the “baby boomers plus”—ranging from 45 to 75 years. However, in every age group, participants showed significant attraction to mobility on demand for specific conditions or circumstances, including safety, weather, premium experience, and leisure time.
Navigant Research Leaderboard puts LG Chem as leader for Li-ion batteries for transportation
November 25, 2015
In its latest Leaderboard report on what it sees as the top 8 automotive Li-ion battery companies, Navigant research has put LG Chem in first place, followed closely by Panasonic and Samsung SDI in the “Leaders” segment. To qualify for the Leaders category, a company must perform exceedingly well in strategy and execution.
Navigant’s second category consists of the “Contenders”, which are companies that have exhibited staying power in the market despite relatively slow growth while boasting significant financial reserves for future investment. In the report, these are AESC, BYD, Johnson Controls and A123. Navigant’s third category, “Challengers”, has only Lithium Energy Japan.
JATO Dynamics: 2016 will be record year for plug-ins with global sales in excess of 700K units; China to begin dominating the market
November 18, 2015
A new white paper from JATO Dynamics, the UK-based supplier of automotive business intelligence, projects, based on its partner LMC Automotive’s forecasts, that the global market for plug-in vehicles (plug-in hybrid and battery-electric vehicles) will reach record sales in excess of 700,000 units next year thanks to strong growth in China, Europe and the US. This will be followed by strong annual growth, according to the report.
Global electric passenger car sales totalled 280,000 units in 2014, representing growth of 43% compared with 2013; total global passenger car sales that year were 72 million units. The report projects annual EV sales in Europe of 500,000 units by 2019. By 2022, the Chinese market is expected to account for half of global sales—almost 1.5 million units a year. The forecast for 2025 sees more than 5.5 million electric vehicles being sold worldwide.
Navigant: Daimler, Audi, BMW, and General Motors currently leading development of autonomous vehicle market
October 15, 2015
In a new Leaderboard Report, Navigant Research ranks Daimler, Audi, BMW, and General Motors (GM) as leading the autonomous vehicle OEM market in terms of strategy and execution. The report examines the strategy and execution of 18 original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), including company profiles and rankings, to provide an objective assessment of these companies’ relative strengths and weaknesses in the developing autonomous vehicle market.
Although fully automated vehicles are expected to be about a decade away from production—depending upon the enactment of the enabling legislation—the incremental systems necessary as foundations for the technology are emerging today. Systems that can drive autonomously in simple situations such as on freeways and in traffic jams are now being offered in some 2016 model year vehicles. These vehicles have the capability to follow the vehicle in front and maintain a safe gap while staying in lane.
EPRI-NRDC report finds widespread vehicle electrification and a cleaner grid could lead to substantial cuts in GHG by 2050
September 21, 2015
Widespread adoption of electric transportation, including electrification in the off-road sector, could lead to substantial reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and could modestly improve air quality, according to a new analysis released by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC).
The report, “Environmental Assessment of a Full Electric Transportation Portfolio”, is based on a projection that by 2050 electricity replaces traditional fuels for approximately half of light- and medium-duty transportation and a significant portion of non-road equipment. This study builds on the 2007 Environmental Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles by EPRI and NRDC (earlier post), which showed that plug-in hybrid electric vehicles could contribute to reductions in national greenhouse gas emissions, while also leading to improved air quality. As with the earlier assessment, this study consists of two separate, but related, analyses: greenhouse gas emissions from 2015-2050, and air quality impacts in 2030.
IHS cuts 2015 light vehicle sales forecast in China to 23.4 million; deeper cut for 2016
September 11, 2015
IHS revised downward its forecast for light vehicle sales in China, projecting a decline of 3 to 4 percent from previous estimates for 2015. IHS Automotive has reduced its full year 2015 light vehicle sales forecast for China to 23.4 million units, reflecting a growth rate over 2014 of just 1.4 percent, compared with its previous forecast of 4.4 percent year-over-year growth.
Recent sales data—when combined with the slump in the Purchasing Manager’s Index and currency devaluation in early August, as well as the summer stock market rout—suggests a significant rebound in light vehicle sales is unlikely in the coming months. However, sales activity may not be as negative as current media reports suggest, according to IHS.
Ford survey in Europe finds SUVs highly desired by Millenials; projected acceleration of SUV boom
September 08, 2015
A new survey sponsored by Ford Motor Company in Europe found that SUVs are highly desired by Millennials (ages 17-34), suggesting that Europe’s SUV boom is poised to accelerate as the generation reaches prime new-car-buying age.
Ford is showing the European-specification Ford Edge large SUV for the first time at Frankfurt Motor Show next week. Starting with the launch of the Edge early next year, Ford plans to introduce five new vehicles in the next three years that will compete in the SUV and crossover space. In addition Ford will introduce updated versions of the EcoSport small SUV and Kuga mid-sized SUV this year. As a result, Ford is targeting sales of 200,000 SUVs in Europe by 2016—a 200% increase compared with 2013.
Lux: Despite softness in utilization, global biofuels capacity to grow to 61.4 BGY in 2018; driven by novel fuels and feedstocks
August 31, 2015
The global biofuels industry averaged 68% in utilization rate from 2005 to 2014, reached a high of 80.9% in 2007, dropped to a low of 56.9% in 2012, and climbed slightly back to 60.4% in 2014. Despite the still apparent softness in capacity utilization, and the on-going softness in fossil fuel prices, global biofuels capacity will continue to grow from 55.1 billion gallons per year (BGY) to 61.4 BGY in 2018, according to a forecast by Lux Research. However, Lux predicts, growth between now and 2018 will not be a continuation of current course.
While ethanol and biodiesel will continue to dominate in absolute terms, these will grow at only a 1.5% CAGR through 2018. Novel fuels and feedstocks will drive the biofuels industry forward at a much more rapid 17% and 22% CAGRs through 2018, respectively.
Lux suggests how LG Chem might overtake EV battery leader Panasonic
August 18, 2015
Panasonic is currently the runaway leader in the nascent battery market for electric vehicles, but LG Chem has the potential to overtake it in what will be a $30 billion market in 2020, according to a new report—“Watch the Throne: How LG Chem and Others Can Take Panasonic’s EV Battery Crown by 2020”—by Lux Research.
Panasonic’s 39% share of the battery market for plug-in vehicles makes it the leading supplier, but its reliance on a single deal with EV leader Tesla leaves it vulnerable, according to the consultancy. Panasonic lead rival LG Chem has already signed up large automakers including General Motors, Volkswagen, Daimler, and Ford. In the event of a surge in sales of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) by the German manufacturers, LG Chem would only need to win over Japan’s Nissan to topple Panasonic.
ICCT: ongoing cost reductions in full- and mild-hybrid systems could bring them into consumer mainstream by 2025
July 24, 2015
According to a new technology briefing paper on hybrid system technologies by John German at the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), the costs of full-function hybrid systems are likely to drop to half the cost of their 2010 counterparts before 2025.
Combined with the development of mild-hybrid systems (belt-alternator or 48-volt system)s—which will likely provide one-half to two-thirds the fuel-efficiency benefits of full-function hybrids at less than half the cost—these levels of cost reductions could put both those technologies into the consumer mainstream by 2025, at least from a cost of technology point of view, German suggests.
Navigant forecasts global annual sales of LDVs of 122.6M by 2035, up 38% from 2015
July 06, 2015
In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts global annual sales of light duty vehicles will reach 122.6 million by 2035, up 38% from a projected 88.8 million this year, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6%. Navigant Research expects the number of LDVs in use on roads worldwide to grow by 57.1% from 2015 to 2035 to almost 1.9 billion units.
Navigant expects sales of conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will fall significantly over the forecast period, experiencing a CAGR of -6.6%. As a result, the share of vehicles in use that are conventional ICE vehicles will fall from more than 91% in 2015 to under 40% by 2035. Navigant expects ICE vehicles will be replaced by start-stop vehicles (SSVs), which will grow from representing more than 4% of vehicles in use in 2015 to nearly 49% in 2035. Hybrids (HEVs) are expected to account for nearly 3%, while PHEVs (plug-in hybrids), BEVs (battery-electric vehicles), NGVs (natural gas vehicles), PAGVs (propane autogas vehicles), and FCV (fuel cell vehicles) s together are projected to add up to more than 9% of the LDVs in use in 2035.
Lux: graphene severely underperforming commercially against “massive hype”
Market analyst firm Lux Research has maintained a skeptical stance about the commercial prospects of graphene even in the light of the material’s compelling properties. In a 2012 report “Is Graphene the Next Silicon...Or Just the Next Carbon Nanotube?”, Lux examined the interplay between graphene’s compelling performance properties as an advanced material, and the significant hurdles it would inevitably face transitioning from the lab to the marketplace. A research and patent boom along with impressive technical performance is far from a guarantee of commercial success.
Lux is now answering its own question with the assertion that graphene looks much closer to the next carbon nanotube than the next silicon. Reasons the firm gives for this assessment include:
Frost & Sullivan projects Volkswagen Group to be the leader in 48V systems over next 10 years
June 15, 2015
In a new report on the prospects for 48V automotive systems (earlier post), consultancy Frost & Sullivan forecasts that the Volkswagen Group will lead in this area primarily because of Audi’s 48V offering (earlier post). The consultancy projects that by 2025, Volkswagen Group will have 48V volumes in excess of 1 million systems in North America and Europe combined, far exceeding its competition.
The report, “The 48V Power-net Market in Europe and North America”, projects that by 2017, Audi and PSA will be the front-runners in Europe, while in North America, the major push is expected by the German OEMs.
Lux: China’s advanced energy storage market to quadruple to $8.7B in 2025; 85% share by transport
June 11, 2015
Driven by environmental problems, a growing auto industry, and a big policy push, China’s advanced energy storage market will be worth $8.7 billion in 2025, more than quadrupling from the current $1.7 billion, according to a new report from Lux Research called “Clearing the Haze: Demystifying Energy Storage Opportunities in China”.
Transport applications will dominate with $7.4 billion, or 85% share of the revenues. Stationary applications will earn $1.3 billion. Overall, revenues will grow slower than volumes on account of continually falling battery and systems prices.
Navigant forecasts annual plug-in electric vehicle sales in N America to exceed 1.1M by 2024
May 27, 2015
In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts that North American plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales will exceed 1.1 million annually by 2024. The report, Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts, provides data and forecasts for LD PEV sales in North America, including US states, MSAs, and utility service territories and Canadian provinces and cities.
To date, North America is the strongest market for light duty (LD) plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), with more than 133,000 sold in 2014. Navigant forecasts the US will continue to be the largest market throughout the forecast period, with annual PEV sales in 2024 exceeding 860,000 in the conservative scenario and 1.2 million in the aggressive. Navigant Research estimates this market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of between 14.7% and 18.6% between 2015 and 2024.
ITF report finds self-driving shared vehicles could take up to 90% of cars off city streets; total kilometers travelled increases
April 30, 2015
A fleet of self-driving shared cars combined with high-capacity public transport could make 90% of conventional cars in mid-sized cities superfluous under certain circumstances, according to a study published by the International Transport Forum (ITF) at the OECD. Even during peak hours, only about one-third (35%) of the current number of cars would be needed to provide the same number of trips as today.
However, while the number of cars is drastically lower, total vehicle kilometers travelled (VKT) increase—more than doubling in one scenario at peak periods due to detours for pick-ups/drop-offs, repositioning and a shift from bus trips to shared cars. The additional travel could increase environmental impacts, if the fleets used conventional engines. If a fleet of electric vehicles were used instead, a fleet of shared self-driving vehicles would need only 2% more vehicles, however, to accommodate battery re-charging times and reduced travel range.
Systematic review of EV battery pack costs suggests economies of scale may push cost toward US$200/kWh without further cell chemistry improvements
April 20, 2015
Industry-wide cost estimates for battery packs for electric vehicles have declined by approximately 14% annually between 2007 and 2014, from above US$1,000 per kWh to around US$410/kWh, according to a systematic review of more than 80 different estimates by a team from the Stockholm Environment Institute. Further, they reported in their paper published in Nature Climate Change, the cost of battery packs used by market-leading BEV manufacturers are even lower at US$300/kWh, and has declined by 8% annually.
The results further suggest that it is possible that economies of scale will continue to push cost towards US$200/kWh in the near future even without further cell chemistry improvements. Their study, said Björn Nykvist and Måns Nilsson, has significant implications for the assumptions used when modeling future energy and transport systems and permits an optimistic outlook for BEVs contributing to low-carbon transport.
EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops
April 14, 2015
The Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that US energy imports and exports will come into balance—a first since the 1950s—because of continued oil and natural gas production growth and slow growth in energy demand.
AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. US net energy imports decline and ultimately end in most AEO2015 cases, driven by growth in US energy production—led by crude oil and natural gas—increased use of renewables, and only modest growth in demand.
Lux forecasts global driver assist market to grow to $102B market by 2030
April 13, 2015
In a new research report, “The $102 Billion Opportunity in Partial Automation for Cars”, Lux Research calculates that the revenue opportunity from advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) features will grow from $2.4 billion today to $102 billion in 2030, corresponding to a 26% CAGR. The new estimates for the total opportunity exceed those of previous Lux Research reports due to a combination of stronger-than-expected automotive sales in 2014 and a more granular approach to the sensors and technologies that enable ADAS features.
Although “the hype around autonomous vehicles often reaches levels that defy logic,” Lux tartly notes, the foundational technologies that are being progressively deployed as part of that technology roadmap can be rationally analyzed for opportunity.
Navigant forecasts global sales of light-duty stop-start vehicles to grow from 19M in 2015 to 59 million by 2024
April 08, 2015
In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts that total annual global light-duty start-stop vehicle (SSVs) sales will reach 59 million, accounting for 55% of all light duty vehicle sales. The same year, Navigant expects 82% of vehicles in Western Europe to have a stop-start feature, along with nearly 69% of vehicles sold in Asia Pacific.
In North America, nearly 37% of new light duty vehicles sold in North America are expected to have the feature by 2020, with the rate expected to hit 46% by 2024 and grow steadily.
Lux Research: the $40,000, 200-mile-range EV is the biggest coming growth opportunity for energy storage in transportation
March 02, 2015
Analysis by Lux Research suggests that the market space represented by the emerging lower-cost, 200-mile-range EV will be the biggest coming growth opportunity in electric storage for transportation. By 2020, this new EV battleground should account for $5 billion or more in Li-ion battery sales, because it combines larger packs (around 50 kWh) with more sales (hundreds of thousands of vehicles).
According to Lux Research’s Automotive Battery Tracker, in 2014 EVs used $2.1-billion worth of energy storage. While selling in similar volumes, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) used three times less batteries: about $0.7 billion worth. Despite selling about 1.5 million units in 2014, an order of magnitude more than the 140,000 EVs that consumers bought in 2014, HEVs also used just $0.7-billion worth of energy storage in 2014.
Study: fully self-driving cars could result in fewer cars, but more miles driven per car
February 13, 2015
Autonomous vehicles (completely self-driving, level 4) may reduce the number of vehicles a family needs, but may lead to an increase in total miles driven per vehicle, according to a new analysis by researchers at the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute.
UMTRI researchers Brandon Schoettle and Michael Sivak examined the 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data set, which contains detailed information about each trip made by a person within a selected household, including the exact start and stop times of each trip. They found a general lack of “trip overlap” between drivers within a majority of households based on vehicle sharing. In other words, families rarely use more than one vehicle at a time.
Bosch CEO: 15% of new cars by 2025 to be at least a hybrid; batteries to deliver 2x energy density for 1/2 current cost by 2020
February 04, 2015
Speaking at the 15th CAR Symposium in Bochum, Germany, Dr. Volkmar Denner, chairman of the board of management of Robert Bosch GmbH, said that that Bosch expects roughly 15% of all new cars built worldwide to have at least a hybrid powertrain by 2025. Denner, whose responsibilities on the board of management include research and advanced development, believes that by 2020 batteries will deliver twice as much energy density for half the present cost.
The EU has set strict fleet CO2 targets for 2021. For this reason alone, Bosch expects hybrid powertrains to become the standard for SUVs. This will give diesel and gasoline engines an extra boost.
IHS Automotive forecasts 88.6M unit global light vehicle market in 2015; 2.4% growth
February 03, 2015
IHS Automotive forecasts global automotive sales for 2015 to reach 88.6 million, an increase of 2.4% over 2014, continuing an unbroken five-year run of sales recovery and growth from the low point set in the depth of the Great Recession in 2009. However, a slowdown is being signaled with just two of the high-potential BRIC markets likely to see increased sales this year.
China will lead the sector’s volume growth, with particular strength in SUVs, though IHS expects the market to slow from 2014. The North American market will continue its upswing, though the pace differs by country. The size of the contraction of the Russian car market remains a significant wild card that will impact the European market throughout the year, according to the analysis, while other countries in the region continue to recover at a rate of 2.5 to 3%, helped by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) commitment to full-blown Quantitative Easing (QE).
Lux Research: despite cheap oil, niche plug-in vehicle sales will be resilient; conventional hybrids to be hardest hit
February 02, 2015
The current plunge in oil prices will likely negatively affect plug-in and hybrid vehicle sales in the short term; automakers such as BMW are already warning of lower sales of plug-in vehicles given the market context. However, an analysis by Lux Research suggests that despite some decrease in sales, sales of plug-in vehicles will likely be resilient, and rebound as oil prices rise back to the prior higher levels over time.
In the likely case of only a gradual return to previous higher prices—which Lux calls the “cheap oil” scenario in its analysis—then electric vehicle (EV) sales will dip by 20% for a number of years, while plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales will dip by about 14% during that same period, the research firm found. The forecast declines are relative to the other forecasted scenario, in which oil prices rebound much more quickly—the “stable oil” scenario.