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Roskill forecasts increasing dependence of Li market on batteries; switch from portable electronics to hybrids
May 20, 2013
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| Consumption of lithium in rechargeable batteries by end use, 2012-2017, kt LCE. Source: Roskill. Click to enlarge. |
In a forecast of the Lithium market through 2017, Roskill Information Services estimates that rechargeable batteries will, in the base-case growth scenario, contribute 75% of the growth in forecast lithium demand to 2017, when total demand for lithium is expected to reach slightly more than 238,000t lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Roskill is an international metals and minerals market research firm.
Batteries accounted for 27% of global lithium consumption in 2012, up from 15% in 2007 and 8% in 2002. This end-use was responsible for 44% of the net increase in lithium consumption over the last ten years, and 70% over the last five years.
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California ARB 2013 research project to characterize ZEV market; assessing future market potential
May 18, 2013
The California Air Resources Board (ARB) 2013 research plan includes a project that will comprehensively characterize the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) market, with the ultimate goal of increasing consumer purchases of ZEVs.
The proposed project will investigate the factors that influence sales of ZEVs in California (e.g., price, vehicle range, infrastructure). The project is intended to support the planned upcoming mid-term review of California’s Advanced Clean Cars program (earlier post), coordinated with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).
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IEE forecasts electric-drive LDVs could constitute between 2 to 12% of US vehicle stock by 2035
April 22, 2013
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| Forecast by LDV scenario (millions). Source: IEE. Click to enlarge. |
Under its most conservative of scenarios, more than 5 million light-duty electric-drive vehicles will be on the road in the US by 2035, according to a new forecast by IEE, an institue of the Edison Foundation. According to the report, “Forecast of On-Road Electric Transportation in the US (2010-2035)”, this figure could increase to as high as 30 million EVs depending on advances in battery technology.
IEE developed three general scenarios for electric transportation: low, medium, and high. These scenarios provide projections based on EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2012 Reference Case, advances in battery technology (e.g., improved battery chemistry that allows for faster and deeper charging and reductions in battery cell and other component costs), and oil prices increasing to $200 per barrel:
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Navigant Research forecasts EV charger global market to grow to $3.8B by 2020; 27.1% CAGR from 2013
April 11, 2013
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| Total installed public EVSE stations by technology and region, world markets: 2012. Source: Navigant Research. Click to enlarge. |
Navigant Research forecasts that the global EVSE (electric vehicle supply equipment, i.e., charger) market will grow from $713 million in 2013 to $3.8 billion by 2020, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.1%.
In a new report, “Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment Tracker 1Q13”, Navigant notes that definitions concerning technologies, industry standards, and market segments vary from region to region making tracking this market difficult. A typical charging station in China is more akin to a “center” in which hundreds of charging points can be accessed for both commercial and passenger vehicles; in almost all other regions, a charging location is one to two pieces of equipment than can service two to four vehicles.
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Navigant forecasts modest growth in global e-bike market through 2020; China slowing
April 05, 2013
In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts that the global market for e-bicycles will grow at a modest rate of 3.1% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) from 31 million in 2013 to nearly 38 million in 2020. North America, Western Europe, and Latin America will show signs of faster growth (9.7%, 9.1%, and 14.4% CAGR, respectively), the market research firm anticipates. Western Europe is currently the second largest market (behind China) with an expected 1.0 million sales in 2013 and growth to 1.9 million by 2020.
Navigant expects the China market will reach 28.0 million e-bicycles in 2013: 92% of the total world market. The e-bicycle market in China is slowing, however, due to a weakened economy, increased consolidation of manufacturers, and supply chain issues in the lead-acid battery market, Navigant says.
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Navigant forecasts global 6% CAGR for biofuels to 2023
March 29, 2013
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| Total Biofuels production by fuel type, world markets: 2013-2023. Source: Navigant. Click to enlarge. |
Navigant Research forecasts global biofuels production will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% between 2013 and 2023, despite slower than expected development of advanced biofuels pathways (such as cellulosic biofuels); an expected expansion in unconventional oil production in key markets such as the United States; and a decline in global investment for biofuels in recent years.
In contrast, Navigant expects the CAGR for fossil-based gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to be 3.1% over the forecast period. The research firm projects that total biofuels production will reach 62 billion gallons by 2023 or 5.9% of global transportation fuel production from fossil sources.
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Navigant forecasts global sales of LDV electric drive motors to hit 3.7M by 2020
March 27, 2013
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| Electric vehicle drive motor revenue by region, world markets: 2013-2020. Source: Navigant. Click to enlarge. |
Unit sales of electric drive motors for light-duty vehicles (LDVs) will reach 3.7 million by 2020, growing from 1.5 million in 2013, according to a new report from Navigant Research (formerly Pike Research). Total global market revenue will grow from just less than $1 billion in 2013 to more than $2.8 billion in 2020, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.6%.
The market for electric traction motors is determined by the demand for electric and electrically assisted vehicles, which varies across the three major automotive market regions in the world (North America, Western Europe, and Asia Pacific), Navigant notes. While sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are increasing, the growth is slow and steady rather than exponential. Cost remains the main barrier in the short term, with the battery pack being by far the most expensive component.
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NRC report concludes US LDVs could cut oil consumption and GHGs by 80% by 2050; reliance on plug-ins, biofuels and hydrogen; strong policies mandatory
March 18, 2013
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| Projected rates of fuel consumption improvement under different scenarios relative to past experience and the 2016 and 2025 CAFE standards. Source: NRC. Click to enlarge. |
Light-duty vehicles (LDVs) in the US may be able to reduce petroleum use by 50% by 2030, and by 80% by 2050; and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% by 2050, according to the newly published results of a two-year study by a committee convened by the National Research Council.
Achieving those goals will will be difficult—but not impossible to meet—and will necessitate a combination of more efficient vehicles; the use of alternative fuels such as biofuels, electricity, and hydrogen; and strong government policies to overcome high costs and influence consumer choices. Given the importance of policy as a driver, the committee was also asked—somewhat unusually for a study of this kind—to explore policies, noted Douglas M. Chapin, principal of MPR Associates, and chair of the committee that wrote the report.
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DOE TEF project finds US can eliminate petroleum and reduce GHG by more than 80% in transportation by 2050; less use, more biofuels, expansion of electricity and hydrogen
March 15, 2013
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| TEF project points to deep cuts in petroleum and emissions in the transportation sector by focusing on modes, fuels, and demand. Source: DOE. Click to enlarge. |
The US Department of Energy (DOE) released findings from a new project—Transportation Energy Futures (TEF)—that concludes the United States has the potential to eliminate petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by more than 80% in the transportation sector by 2050. The project identifies possible paths to a low-carbon, low-petroleum future in the US transportation sector, and also looks beyond technology to examine the marketplace, consumer behavior, industry capabilities, and infrastructure.
TEF is organized into four research areas: light-duty vehicles; non-light-duty vehicles; fuels; and transportation demand. Findings are being detailed in a series of nine reports, six of which are now available.
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ExxonMobil: diesel will surpass gasoline as the number one global transportation fuel by 2020
March 09, 2013
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| Transportation fuel mix in millions of oil-equivalent barrels through 2020. Source: ExxonMobil Outlook. Click to enlarge. |
Diesel will surpass gasoline as the number one transportation fuel worldwide by 2020 and continue to increase its share through 2040, according to ExxonMobil’s recently published Outlook For Energy: A View To 2040. The relative shift away from motor gasoline to diesel is driven by improving light-duty vehicle fuel economy and the growth in commercial transportation activity. Diesel demand accounts for 70% of the growth in demand for all transportation fuels through the forecast period to 2040.
Fuel demand for heavy-duty vehicles, the largest subsector, sees the greatest growth, up 65%, and accounts for 40% of all transportation demand by 2040. About 80% of the growth in commercial transport demand will come from developing nations, according to the forecast. Fuel for aviation and marine will increase about 75% and 90%, respectively, over the Outlook period, with their combined share growing from about 20% today to more than 25% by 2040.
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Pike Research forecasts smart city technology market to grow to $20.2B annually in 2020; smart transportation component to be worth $5.5B by 2020
January 22, 2013
In a new report, Pike Research forecasts that the smart city technology market will grow from $6.1 billion annually in 2012 to $20.2 billion in 2020—a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.2%. Globally, Pike anticipates cumulative investment of more than $117 billion in smart city technologies between 2012 and 2020.
Pike Research analyzes the market in terms of the five “industries” that are core to the development of smart cities: smart energy; smart water; smart transportation; smart buildings; and smart government. The fastest-growing of these industries will be smart transportation, with a CAGR of 19.5% between 2012 and 2020. By 2020, the smart transportation market related to smart cities will be worth $5.5 billion annually.
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Pike Research forecasts automotive Li-ion battery market to grow to almost $22B in 2020; China to become global leader in production by 2015
January 11, 2013
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| Total lithium-ion transportation battery revenue by region, world markets: 2012-2020. Source: Pike Research. Click to enlarge. |
In a new report, Pike Research forecasts that the overall market for Li-ion batteries in light duty transportation will grow from $1.6 billion in 2012 to almost $22 billion in 2020.
Battery-electric vehicles will be the dominant vehicle technology for driving market growth, Pike suggests, because they utilize much larger battery packs than plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Current BEVs use battery packs ranging from 16 kWh to 85 kWh compared to PHEV packs ranging from 4 kWh to 16 kWh, for example.
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ACEA says that without improved conditions, unlikely full potential of e-mobility will be met; need for standards, coordinated approach to incentives, R&D support; 2–8% market penetration for next decade
January 07, 2013
The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) is warning that under current conditions, it is unlikely that the full potential of e-mobility will be met.
This is partly due to the current economic situation, with declining sales of vehicles. However, the trade association says, it is to a large extent also due to slow progress in charging standards; the fragmentation of internal market as a result of uncoordinated approach to market incentives; a lack of dedicated support for R&D; and no clear and unified vision on infrastructure.
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Pike Research forecasts hybrids and plug-ins to grow to 4% of European market in 2020
January 02, 2013
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| Pike’s projected vehicle sales by electrified drivetrain, European markets: 2012–2020. Click to enlarge. |
Pike Research forecasts that electric vehicles—conventional hybrids (HEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and battery-electrics (BEVs)—will grow from 0.7% of the market in Europe in 2012 to 4% in 2020. While that is still a small portion of the market, it represents more than 827,000 vehicles per year, Pike notes. The biggest growth is expected in BEVs followed by PHEVs, with HEVs lagging behind.
Pike Research forecasts that by 2020 more than 1.8 million BEVs will be on Europe’s roadways, along with 1.2 million PHEVs and 1.7 million HEVs.
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Polk expects 2013 US new vehicle registrations to grow 6.6% to 15.3M; only slight improvement in hybrid category
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| Polk light vehicle forecast through 2016. Data: Polk. Click to enlarge. |
New light vehicle registrations in the US in 2013 are expected to rise 6.6% over 2012 levels to 15.3 million vehicles, according to Polk, a global automotive market intelligence firm. At the same time, Polk analysts forecast North American production volumes to increase to the 15.9 million unit range (an anticipated 2.4% increase from 2012), driven by an improving economy and capacity expansion in the region.
According to Polk’s analysis, new vehicle introductions in 2013 will escalate significantly, with 43 new vehicle introductions in the US planned for the year, up nearly 50% over 2012 levels, along with 60 vehicle redesigns. While the number of available hybrid models in the US will also increase this year, Polk anticipates only a slight improvement in this category from its current level of approximately 2.9% of the overall market.
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Pike Research updates xEV forecasts; projects Ford to lead US PEV market, followed by GM
December 21, 2012
Pike Research has published an update to its earlier forecasts on xEVs: hybrid (HEVs); plug-in hybrid (PHEVs); and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). As a result of new assumptions, Pike Research has slightly reduced its forecasts for plug-in vehicles (PEVs: PHEVs and BEVs combined) from past forecasts.
This reduction was driven largely by the slow growth of BEVs in the United States (the largest market for PEVs) in 2012 and the postponement of some vehicle launches, the research firm noted. However, Pike still anticipates 39% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) between 2012 and 2020. In contrast, the CAGRs for HEVs and the total vehicle market are estimated at 6% and 2%, respectively. Highlights of the forecast include:
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Pike Research makes 10 electric vehicle predictions for 2013
December 18, 2012
Sales of plug-in vehicles (PEVs) in 2013 will continue to outpace the first years of hybrid vehicle sales as more than 210,000 PEVs will be sold globally and more than three dozen PEV models will debut, according to a year-end free whitepaper published by Pike Research, that makes 10 specific predictions about electric vehicles in 2013.
More broadly, Pike envisions PEV sales in California—the leading market for such in the US—expanding into smaller urban and suburban regions with more dealers beginning to offer the vehicles. Pike also anticipates forward momentum with PEVs in China. The research company also projects that several startup electric vehicle (EV) companies are likely to be absorbed or discontinue operations during the year. Within that context of accelerating sales growth, the 10 specific predictions are:
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Anderman: Li-ion capacity far outstripping demand as automakers focus more on hybrids, less on full EVs
Global automotive Li-Ion battery production capacity is outstripping demand five-to-one as automakers refocus on hybrids and away from full electric vehicles, according to Dr. Menahem Anderman’s recently released xEV Industry Insider Report. Anderman is founder and chairman of the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference (AABC); the 13th annual conference is scheduled for February 2013 in Pasadena, California.
The report notes that despite heavy subsidies by governments and automakers, 2012 EV sales are coming short of meeting many automakers’ sales and production plans. Conversely, those of HEVs are in line with plans. As a result, production plans for EVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) for the next 4-5 years are being slashed. Anderman projects a global EV/PHEV 2016 market at around 0.6% of anticipated 2016 new vehicle sales, leaving the over-invested battery industry in a trying environment.
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Pike Research forecasts $18B market in 2020 for advanced lead-acid batteries, 58% in transportation
December 10, 2012
In a new report, Pike Research forecasts that the advanced lead-acid battery (LAB) market will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.8% over the next 8 years. Of the projected US$18-billion market in 2020, 58% of the sales will be from the transportation sector, historically one of the most of important industries for lead-acid batteries.
New applications will constitute the rest of the market volume, according to the report, “Advanced Lead-Acid Batteries”, driven by the expanding market potential of the global grid storage market. By 2020, Pike Research forecasts that advanced lead-acid batteries will capture roughly 25% of the global battery-based grid storage market, a small subset of the broader energy storage market. The market value for advanced lead-acid batteries in grid storage will be approximately $6.8 billion in 2020, according to Pike.
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IDTechEx forecasts $18B market for electric vehicle inverters in 2023
December 08, 2012
The market for electric vehicle inverters, including converters, for both hybrid and pure electric vehicles—land, water and air—will grow to $18 billion in 2023 according to a new report from IDTechEx, “Inverters for Electric Vehicles 2013-2023”.
The demand for inverters and electric power conversions is already well established in the automation and industrial control industries which are also growing at considerable pace. The addition of a significant complimentary emerging market will create new sectors for existing inverter and power electronic component suppliers as well as create opportunities for new players, particularly those with specialist electric vehicle knowledge and those able to develop added value through highly integrated electric powertrain systems, the report suggests.
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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012
December 05, 2012
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| Transportation sector gasoline demand declines. Click to enlarge. |
The US Energy Information Administration released its Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013) Reference case (the Early Release), which highlights a growth in total US energy production that exceeds growth in total US energy consumption through 2040.
Among its many findings, the Reference case suggests that US primary energy consumption will grow by 7% from 2011 to 2040 to 108 quadrillion Btu. However, energy use per capita declines by 15% from 2011 through 2040 as a result of improving energy efficiency (e.g., new appliance standards and CAFE) and changes in the way energy is used in the US economy. Further, the fossil fuel share of primary energy consumption falls from 82% in 2011 to 78% in 2040 as consumption of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls, largely because of the incorporation of new fuel efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles.
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Pike Research forecasts annual investments in vehicle-to building technologies will reach about $103M worldwide by 2020
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| Annual total V2B investment by region, world markets: 2012-2020. Source: Pike Research. Click to enlarge. |
Despite the potential of defraying a plug-in vehicle’s cost by supporting a building’s energy consumption, vehicle-to-building technology (V2B) as a viable commercial market is still 3 to 5 years off, according to a new report from Pike Research.
Pike Research that vehicle investment to enable V2B will be about $27 million worldwide annually by 2020, while investments in required upgrades to infrastructure—including power electronics, inverters, and power management software—will grow to nearly $76 million worldwide, annually, by then.
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World Bank report examines likely impacts and risks associated with a 4 °C global warming within this century
November 19, 2012
A new report commissioned by the World Bank, and prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Climate Analytics, provides a snapshot of recent scientific literature and new analyses of likely impacts and risks that would be associated with a 4 °C global warming within this century. The report—Turn Down the Heat—attempts to outline a range of risks, focusing on developing countries and especially the poor.
The report is not a comprehensive scientific assessment, the authors note; one such is slated to be forthcoming from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013–14 in its Fifth Assessment Report. The World Bank report focused on developing countries, while recognizing that developed countries are also vulnerable and at serious risk of major damages from climate change.
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IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency
November 12, 2012
The global energy map is changing significantly, according to the 2012 edition of the Internal Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook (WEO-2012). The IEA said these changes will recast expectations about the role of different countries, regions and fuels in the global energy system over the coming decades. The report also finds that by 2035 global energy savings could be equivalent to nearly 20% of global demand in 2010.
The WEO finds that the extraordinary growth in oil and natural gas output in the United States will mean a sea-change in global energy flows. In the New Policies Scenario, the WEO’s central scenario, the United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and is almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035. However, given the ongoing reliance on fossil fuels, the emissions in the New Policies Scenario correspond to a long-term average global temperature increase of 3.6 °C.
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BorgWarner expects $2.3B of net new powertrain business 2013–2015; 80% engine-related; 32% in China
November 07, 2012
BorgWarner Inc. expects $2.3 billion of net new powertrain business for 2013 through 2015. Demand for the company's advanced powertrain technologies, including gasoline and diesel turbochargers; dual-clutch transmission technology; engine timing systems; and emissions products, is expected to continue to drive strong growth.
Of the total new business, approximately 80% is anticipated from engine-related products such as turbochargers, ignition systems, emissions products, engine timing systems, variable cam timing modules and thermal systems. The remaining approximate 20% is expected from drivetrain-related products including the company’s fuel-efficient DualTronic transmission technology and its traditional automatic transmission and all-wheel drive technologies.
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PwC analysis finds meeting 2 °C warming target would require “unprecedented and sustained” reductions over four decades
November 05, 2012
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| PwC analysis finds a need for global carbon intensity to drop an average of 5.1% per year through 2050. Click to enlarge. |
The low annual rate of global reduction of carbon emissions per unit of GDP needed to limit global warming to 2 °C—based on the probability assessments of the UN IPCC—is insufficient to achieve that goal, according to the latest Low Carbon Economy Index published by business consultancy PwC. The analysis is based on a carbon budget that would stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at 450 ppm and give a 50% probability of limiting warming to 2 °C.
Since 2000, the global rate of decarbonization has averaged 0.8%; from 2010 to 2011, global carbon intensity fell by just 0.7%. Because of this slow start, global carbon intensity now needs to be cut by an average of 5.1% a year from now to 2050. This required rate of decarbonization has not been seen even in a single year since the mid-20th century when these records began. Keeping to the 2 °C carbon budget will require “unprecedented and sustained” reductions over four decades, according to the PwC analysis. Even to have a reasonable prospect of getting to a 4°C scenario would imply nearly quadrupling the current rate of decarbonization.
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Pike ranks Volkswagen Group as the global leader in clean diesel vehicles
October 17, 2012
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| Pike Pulse Grid for clean diesels. Click to enlarge. |
The new Pike Pulse Report: Clean Diesel Vehicles from Pike Research ranks the Volkswagen Group as the leader in this market, due to the efforts of the Volkswagen and Audi brands. The company has long been a leader in selling diesel vehicles and is making a strong push for emerging clean diesel markets, Pike notes.
Pike’s Contenders category includes BMW; PSA Peugeot Citroën (PSA); General Motors (GM); Mazda; Mercedes; Mitsubishi; Ford; Honda; the Hyundai Kia Automotive Group; Fiat-Chrysler; and the automotive partnership of RenaultNissan. Pike’s third grouping consists of the Challengers; Toyota is relegated to this category. None of the 13 major OEMs evaluated for the report fall into the Followers category.
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Pike report ranks Chevrolet as current leader in the plug-in vehicle market
October 03, 2012
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| Pike Pulse grid of the PEV market. Click to enlarge. |
A new report by Pike Research assessing the plug-in vehicle (PEV) strategy and execution of 16 leading vendors ranks Chevrolet as the current leader in the PEV market, due to its high ratings in both strategy and execution, closely followed by Renault. Pike rates Toyota and Nissan as very close contenders for leadership, though both have either product portfolio or pricing issues that limited their scoring in Pike’s evaluation. Pike calls Ford is the “sleeping giant” of the PEV market, with a strong strategy but unproven products that have yet to launch.
Pike Research forecasts that despite robust growth in the PEV market, sales will fall short of expectations set by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and politicians in 2010 and 2011. Globally, Pike Research anticipates the market for PEVs will grow from 137,950 vehicles in 2012 to 1.75 million in 2020. Pike expects the US to remain the largest single market through the forecast period, with annual sales reaching 400,073 vehicles by 2020.
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Pike Research forecasts 37% CAGR for EV charging equipment, with 2.4 million units sold in 2020; wireless charging to show strong growth
October 02, 2012
In a new report, Pike Research forecasts that global sales of electric vehicle (EV) charging equipment (EVSE) will grow at a steady pace from 2012 to 2020 as the global market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) grows. The EVSE market will rise from below 200,000 units sold in 2012 to almost 2.4 million in 2020 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37%, according to Pike’s projections.
Pike anticipates more than 135,000 PEVs will be sold globally in 2012; the past year accordingly has also seen a major uptick in EVSE deployments, in the number of companies competing in this space, and in the number and types of EVSE on the market. Pike expects more than 80 different models of PEVs will be found on roadways across the globe next year, and at least as many models of charging equipment for residential and commercial customers will be available.
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UK Carbon Trust report says fuel cell vehicles could take more than 30% of mid-sized car market by 2050
September 30, 2012
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| Ranges of automotive fuel cell system costs at mass manufactured volume using technology from three UK companies supported by the Carbon Trust. Source: Carbon Trust. Click to enlarge. |
A new report released by the UK’s Carbon Trust concludes that with a continued focus on technology innovation to drive ongoing cost reductions, fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) could take over 30% of the mid-sized car market by 2050.
The report is specifically focused on the potential for technology from select UK companies to enable a disruptive step-change in fuel cell cost reduction to accelerate consumer uptake, leading to approximately double the number of fuel cell cars on the road globally by 2030 versus current expectations. Some of the technologies could be applied in FCEVs as early as 2020, according to the report.
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Pike Research forecasts surge in investment and growth in advanced biorefineries through 2022
September 22, 2012
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| Cumulative capital investment in biorefinery infrastructure by generation, world markets, 2012–2022. Source: Pike Research. Click to enlarge. |
Pike Research forecasts that biorefineries globally will attract $170 billion in new capital investment between 2012 and 2022, reaching 81 billion gallons per year (BGY) of installed capacity. In its tally and projections, Pike includes conventional ethanol and biodiesel facilities targeting commodity-based feedstocks, such as corn starch, sugarcane, soy, palm oil, and rapeseed.
The new research report, Industrial Biorefineries, puts the installed capacity of the current fleet of approximately 1,415 biorefineries—scattered predominately across the United States, Brazil, and Europe—at 34.6 BGY of installed capacity worldwide in 2012. These conventional biorefineries are now giving way to a growing number of advanced biorefineries, Pike says.
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Pike Research forecasts 41M stop-start vehicles to be sold annually by 2020; nearly ten-fold increase from 2012
September 13, 2012
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| Annual stop-start vehicle/hybrid electric vehicle sales, world markets: 2012-2020. Source: Pike. Click to enlarge. |
Pike Research forecasts that more than 41 million vehicles with stop-start systems will be sold annually worldwide by 2020—nearly a tenfold increase over 2012 sales.
Pikes’s new research report, “Stop-Start Vehicles”, finds that the stop-start technology is most popular in Europe at present, but expects volumes to grow steadily as it spreads to North America and Asia Pacific. While hybrid and electric vehicles are also expected to increase sales volumes, Pike projects that vehicles with these powertrains will remain in the low single digit percentages of the overall market, due primarily to cost.
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Pike Research forecasts 14% and 19% CAGR worldwide for natural gas trucks and buses
September 04, 2012
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| Annual sales of NG trucks and buses by segment, world markets: 2012-2019. Source: Pike. Click to enlarge. |
Pike Research expects the global market for natural gas (NG) trucks to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% between 2012 and 2019, reaching 111,319 sales in 2019. Pike expects medium-duty (MD) trucks to be the largest of the truck markets, growing to 85,848 vehicle sales; heavy-duty (HD) truck sales will reach 25,471 vehicles.
The company expects the market for NG buses to grow at a CAGR of 19% during the same period. Asia Pacific is the largest NG bus market, accounting for 86% of NG bus sales by 2019, according to Pike. While the North American and Western European markets will see strong NG bus growth (10% CAGR), Asia Pacific will see growth rates of 21% with India, China, and Thailand leading the region in NG bus sales.
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MIT study suggests carbon tax could help reduce US deficit, lower other taxes, reduce emissions
August 27, 2012
A new report from MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change suggests that a tax on carbon emissions could help raise the money needed to reduce the US deficit, while improving the economy, lowering other taxes and reducing emissions.
In the report—Carbon Tax Revenue and the Budget Deficit: A Win-Win-Win Solution?—John Reilly, co-director of the Joint Program and co-author Sebastian Rausch, now at ETH Zurich University, calculated the impact a carbon tax starting at $20 per ton would have using a national economic model that details energy, taxes and household incomes. They found that the tax would raise $1.5 trillion in revenue, which could then be used to reduce personal or corporate income taxes, extend the payroll tax cut that expires this year, maintain spending on social programs—or some combination of these options—while reducing the deficit.
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Pike forecasts 26.4% CAGR for electric-drive buses to 2018; hybrid, battery-electric and fuel cell
August 20, 2012
Pike Research forecasts that the global market for all electric-drive buses—including hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell buses—grow steadily over the next 6 years, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.4% from 2012 to 2018.
In a new report, “Electric Drive Buses”, Pike finds that China market will constitute the majority of global electric drive bus sales, while some of the more developed markets will see fluctuations in electric bus uptake. This latter development is due as much to the fact that developed bus markets may experience a general slowdown, due to austerity measures and the end of stimulus funding, as to any changes in demand for electric drive buses.
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NPC report to Energy Secretary finds light-, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles could reduce per-mile GHG at least 40% by 2050; additional strategies required for further reductions
August 02, 2012
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| Projected range of impact of demand, fuel efficiency improvements, and alternative fuel-vehicle systems on light-duty fleet GHG emissions. Source: NPC. Click to enlarge. |
Transportation in the United States could evolve at an accelerated rate, depending on the speed of technology advancements and the economic viability of alternative fuels and vehicles, according to a comprehensive report approved and presented to the Secretary of Energy by the National Petroleum Council (NPC). However, sustained and focused efforts by industry and government are essential for progress to continue and accelerate.
Among the findings of the two-year study are that—if technology hurdles and infrastructure challenges can be overcome—economically competitive low-carbon fuels and improvements in fuel economy will result in substantial reductions in GHG emissions. On a stand-alone basis, all light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicles have the potential to reduce per-mile GHG emissions by at least 40% in 2050, relative to 2005 average fleet levels. However, projected 2050 transportation demand, relative to 2005, counteracts per-mile GHG reductions.
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DOE releases new database of cost and performance estimates for electric generation, advanced vehicle, and renewable fuel technologies
July 16, 2012
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| TCDB plot of projected total cost of battery-electric vehicles to manufacturers. Click to enlarge. |
The US Department of Energy (DOE) has released a new public database featuring cost and performance estimates for electric generation, advanced vehicle, and renewable fuel technologies. The Transparent Cost Database (TCDB) provides technology cost estimates for companies, utilities, policy makers, consumers, and academics, and can be used to benchmark company costs, model energy scenarios, and inform research and development decisions.
The database, developed by the DOE’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) with funding from the DOE of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, makes it much easier to view the range of estimates for what energy technologies, such as a utility-scale wind farm, rooftop solar installation, biofuel production plant, or an electric vehicle, might cost today or in the future.
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McKinsey analysis indicates Li-ion pack prices could fall to $160/kWh by 2025; EV TCO competitive with combustion engine vehicles
July 12, 2012
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| The interaction of battery and fuel costs will determine the size of the market for electric vehicles. Source: McKinsey, Hensley et al. Click to enlarge. |
A new analysis by the consultancy McKinsey & Company indicates that the price of a complete automotive lithium-ion battery pack could fall from the current $500–$600/kWh to about $200/kWh by 2020 and to about $160/kWh by 2025 (in real dollars, indexed to 2011). These figures represent the price per effective kWh, assuming batteries with 70% depth of discharge (DoD), and include the price of battery cells, battery-management systems, and packaging.
In the US, with gasoline prices at or above $3.50 a gallon, battery prices below $250/kWh could enable electrified vehicles competitive—on a total-cost-of-ownership (TCO) basis—with vehicles powered by advanced internal-combustion engines, according to the analysis by Russell Hensley, John Newman, and Matt Rogers, published in McKinsey Quarterly, the business journal of McKinsey & Company.
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Pike Research forecasts annual global sales of light-duty natural gas vehicles to reach 3.2M in 2019
July 06, 2012
The global market for light-duty (LD) natural gas vehicles (NGVs)—including passenger cars, light-duty trucks and commercial vehicles—will experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.2% between 2012 and 2019, reaching 3.2 million vehicles sold in 2019, according to a new forecast by Pike Research. This level of sales results in a cumulative total of 25.4 million LD NGVs on the road by 2019. LD NGVs make up about 97% of the total NGV market (2.08 million vehicles out of 2.15 million vehicles in 2012).
Asia Pacific will become the largest market for NGVs, according to the Pike report, “Light Duty Natural Gas Vehicles”, due to strong growth in a variety of markets including: Thailand (24% CAGR); India (23%); and China (20%). Although Pakistan also has a large fleet of NGVs, its market has been volatile as the government looks to reduce strains on the country’s NG supplies, according to the report.
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Pike Research forecasts China plug-in market to reach 152,000 units/year by 2017, falling short of government targets; BEVs to dominate
July 05, 2012
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| PEV Sales in China by segment: 2012-2017. Source: Pike Research. Click to enlarge. |
The government of China—now the world’s largest automotive market—has made vehicle electrification central to its plan for growing the automotive market both domestically and internationally, and accordingly has created many national and local incentives for plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) purchases.
However, according to a new report from Pike Research, PEV production will fall well short of the government’s ambitious goals of manufacturing 500,000 PEVs a year by 2015. Pike projects the PEV market in China will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 60% from 2012 to 2017, surpassing 152,000 units sold annually by 2017. However, that figure represents less than 1% of the total light duty vehicle market in China. Battery-electric (BEVs) will outsell plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in China by a greater than five-to-one margin during the forecast period, as the incentives and consumer demand in the country favor emissions-free driving.
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Pike Research: Europe to have 4.1M EV charging stations by 2020, but needs to address country-specific variations
July 04, 2012
Europe will have more than 2.9 million plug-in vehicles PEVs on its roads by 2020 with more than 4.1 million EV charging stations (electric vehicle supply equipment, EVSE) to support them, according to a new report from Pike Research, “Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment in Europe”.
However, notes the report, the absence of a single alternating current (AC) EV charging connector standard has hampered the deployment of an EV charging infrastructure. The EU has declined to set a standard. The German industry has supported the Type 2 plug (the Mennekes connector) for more than two years, while French and Italian electric equipment manufacturers, united under the umbrella of the EV Plug Alliance—but without the support of a single car company—have supported the Type 3 plug. Renault sells the Fluence EV with a Type 3 connector in France and a Type 2 connector in Germany. If the European EV charging equipment market is to reach its potential, the reports asserts, “these multiple standards cannot last.”
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German ELAB study finds growth of alternative drivetrains to increase employment opportunities in auto industry
July 02, 2012
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| Comparison of the personnel requirements under four scenarios in the ELAB study for an idealized production of 1 million powertrains. The FCV scenario requires most workers to produce the million powertrains. Source: ELAB Studienergebnisse. Click to enlarge. |
The growing share of alternative drive trains in the automotive industry offers opportunities for jobs in the automotive sector, according to the “ELAB” study, the first broad-based, practice-oriented analysis of the effects of technological change on employment in the automotive industry. “ELAB” stands for “Auswirkungen der Elektrifizierung des Antriebsstrangs auf Beschäftigung und Standortumgebung”, German for “effects of the powertrain electrification on employment and the business environment”.
The research project was initiated by the General Works Council of Daimler AG and started in December 2010 together with Daimler, IG Metall Baden-Württemberg (Industrial Union of Metal Workers) and the Hans Böckler Foundation. The Fraunhofer IAO, the IMU Institute and the Institute for Vehicle Concepts of the German Aerospace Center were commissioned with the research.
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Pike Research projects plug-in sales to fall short of US 2015 target; strong growth through 2020
Plug-in vehicle (PEV) sales—comprising battery-electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV)—in the US by 2015 will fall far short of the 1-million unit target set by the Obama Administration, according to a new report from Pike Research. Pike now projects that some 410,000 PEVs will be sold between 2011 and 2015 in the United States, with cumulative US sales not reaching the 1 million mark until 2018.
Pike nevertheless expects PEV sales to ramp up strongly in the second half of this decade, with global PEV sales surpassing 1 million vehicles per year in 2017 and, by 2020, reaching 1,748,268 units—about 1.7% of the 103 million global light-duty vehicle sales expected in 2020, according to Pike. At the end of the decade, hybrid electric vehicles will see 1.6 million annual sales. bringing the total annual sales of battery-powered vehicles to some 3.4 million units, Pike said.
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Harvard Kennedy School researcher forecasts sharp increase in world oil production capacity and risk of price collapse
June 27, 2012
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| World oil production capacity to 2020 (crude oil and NGLs, excluding biofuels). Source: Maugeri 2012. Click to enlarge. |
Oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity could grow by nearly 20% from the current 93 million barrels per day to 110.6 mbpd by 2020, according to a new study by a researcher at the Harvard Kennedy School. Such an increase in capacity could prompt a plunge or even a collapse in oil prices, he suggests.
The findings by Leonardo Maugeri, a former senior executive vice president of the oil company Eni, and now a fellow in the Geopolitics of Energy Project in the Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, are based on an original field-by-field analysis of the world’s major oil formations and exploration projects.
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Pike Research forecasts clean diesels to represent more than 12% of global light-duty vehicle sales by 2018; outpacing hybrids in North America
June 20, 2012
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| Annual clean diesel ldv sales by region, world markets: 2012-2018. Source: Pike Research. Click to enlarge. |
A new report from Pike Research finds that rising fuel prices and stronger fuel economy regulations will stimulate increasing demand for clean diesel vehicles in markets around the world, and forecasts sales of these vehicles will increase from 9.1 million in 2012 to 12.1 million annually by 2018, representing 12.4% of all LDV sales by the end of that period.
With rising gas prices and stronger fuel economy regulations coming into effect, the United States should see rising demand for diesel cars and trucks, Pike suggests. North America has been a weak market for diesel for 20 years, due to the low price of gasoline as well as diesel’s reputation for being smelly, dirty and unreliable. Additionally, US LDV emissions regulations do not treat gasoline and diesel cars separately, and US NOx levels for LDVs are very low and challenging for diesel vehicles to meet.
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Pike Research forecasts continued deployments of Intelligent Transportation Systems despite public sector cutbacks
May 29, 2012
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| Smart transport investment by sector, world markets: 2011-2017. Source: Pike Research. Click to enlarge. |
The widespread availability of high-speed networks, both fixed and wireless, along with the ability to embed intelligence in physical objects throughout the urban environment and the diffusion of mobile devices that can send and receive real-time vehicle or infrastructure information, is driving the adoption of smart transportation systems in cities across the developed world and in major emerging economies. According to a recent report from Pike Research, these deployments of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) are likely to continue to grow even as public infrastructure spending flattens or even declines in many cases.
Pike forecasts that global investment in four key applications—traffic management systems, smart charging for plug-in electric vehicles, public transportation systems, and vehicle-to-vehicle systems—for smart transportation systems will total $13.1 billion between 2011 and 2017, with annual spending on key ITS increasing from just under $770 million in 2011 to almost $3 billion in 2017.
