A new study by consultancy Roland Berger defines an integrated roadmap for European road transport decarbonization to 2030 and beyond; the current regulatory framework for vehicle emissions, carbon intensity of fuels and use of renewable fuels covers only up to 2020/2021. The study was commissioned by a coalition of fuel... Read more →


ABI Research has defined six transformative paradigms for the automotive industry over the next 25 years: the software-defined car; sensors and big data; the connected car; cooperative mobility and the IoT; electrification; and car sharing/driverless cars. While the first three phases are already underway, the latter three will start to... Read more →


A new MIT Energy Initiative report spearheaded by John Heywood, Sun Jae Professor of Mechanical Engineering Emeritus at MIT, identifies three important paths forward reducing light-duty vehicle energy use and greenhouse gas emissions: improve the existing system and technologies for shorter-term benefits; conserve fuel by changing driver habits for nearer-... Read more →


A new study from Juniper Research forecasts that nearly 17 million hybrid and electric vehicles will be on the road by 2020, up from an estimated 12 million last year. Juniper believes that stakeholders primarily need to establish the viability and desirability of electric vehicles with consumers, and adopt an... Read more →


A new study by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) forecasts that sales of electric vehicles will hit 41 million by 2040, representing 35% of new light duty vehicle sales worldwide. This would be almost 90 times the equivalent figure for 2015, when EV sales are estimated to have been 462,000,... Read more →


Technavio forecasts 45% CAGR in automotive fuel cell market through 2019

The global fuel cell market in the automotive industry is set to grow at a rapid CAGR of more than 45% (in terms of unit shipments) through 2019, according to a new report by global technology research and advisory company Technavio. Technavio calculated the market size for 2015-2019 based on... Read more →


Global energy demand will increase 25% between 2014 and 2040, driven by population growth and economic expansion, ExxonMobil forecasts in the 2016 edition of its annual The Outlook for Energy. At the same time, energy efficiency gains and increased use of renewable energy sources and lower carbon fuels, such as... Read more →


PwC’s Autofacts group estimates sales of pure electric, plug-in mild and full hybrids will grow 433% to 2.2 million units by 2021, driven by a number of factors, including regulatory pressure. While alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs)—including hybrids and pure electric—are gaining consumer acceptance in the European Union (EU), even in... Read more →


Driven by continued innovation in vehicle connectivity and safety technologies, global revenue from automotive display systems will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 11% to $18.6 billion by the end of 2021, according to a new forecast by IHS Inc. This will add nearly $9... Read more →


In its new Natural Gas Vehicles report, Navigant Research forecasts that global annual NGV sales—light-, medium- and heavy-duty—will grow 62.5% from 2.4 million vehicles in 2015 to 3.9 million in 2025. Navigant forecasts that the number of light-duty NGVs on the world’s roads will double by 2025 to 39.6 million,... Read more →


Bain: Germany’s goal of 1M electric cars by 2020 is unattainable; fewer than 50,000 units on road by end of this year

The German Federal Government plan to have one million electric cars on its roads by 2020 has failed, according to the analysis of international management consulting firm Bain & Company. By the end of 2015, there will be a total of about 50,000 electric cars and plug-in hybrids on the... Read more →


In a new report, Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts, Navigant research projects that under its base scenario, global sales of light duty electrified vehicles (i.e., vehicles that use electricity for traction, including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery-electrics) will grow from 2.6 million vehicle sales in 2015 to more than 6.0 million... Read more →


Innovations in autonomous vehicles, connectivity, and mobility-on-demand will have a profound impact on consumers, particularly among younger and older people, according to a new study by KPMG. With these age groups set to embrace these technological and transformational changes, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the US will soar by approximately... Read more →


In its latest Leaderboard report on what it sees as the top 8 automotive Li-ion battery companies, Navigant research has put LG Chem in first place, followed closely by Panasonic and Samsung SDI in the “Leaders” segment. To qualify for the Leaders category, a company must perform exceedingly well in... Read more →


A new white paper from JATO Dynamics, the UK-based supplier of automotive business intelligence, projects, based on its partner LMC Automotive’s forecasts, that the global market for plug-in vehicles (plug-in hybrid and battery-electric vehicles) will reach record sales in excess of 700,000 units next year thanks to strong growth in... Read more →


In a new Leaderboard Report, Navigant Research ranks Daimler, Audi, BMW, and General Motors (GM) as leading the autonomous vehicle OEM market in terms of strategy and execution. The report examines the strategy and execution of 18 original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), including company profiles and rankings, to provide an objective... Read more →


EPRI-NRDC report finds widespread vehicle electrification and a cleaner grid could lead to substantial cuts in GHG by 2050

Widespread adoption of electric transportation, including electrification in the off-road sector, could lead to substantial reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and could modestly improve air quality, according to a new analysis released by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). The report, “Environmental... Read more →


IHS revised downward its forecast for light vehicle sales in China, projecting a decline of 3 to 4 percent from previous estimates for 2015. IHS Automotive has reduced its full year 2015 light vehicle sales forecast for China to 23.4 million units, reflecting a growth rate over 2014 of just... Read more →


Ford survey in Europe finds SUVs highly desired by Millenials; projected acceleration of SUV boom

A new survey sponsored by Ford Motor Company in Europe found that SUVs are highly desired by Millennials (ages 17-34), suggesting that Europe’s SUV boom is poised to accelerate as the generation reaches prime new-car-buying age. Ford is showing the European-specification Ford Edge large SUV for the first time at... Read more →


The global biofuels industry averaged 68% in utilization rate from 2005 to 2014, reached a high of 80.9% in 2007, dropped to a low of 56.9% in 2012, and climbed slightly back to 60.4% in 2014. Despite the still apparent softness in capacity utilization, and the on-going softness in fossil... Read more →


Panasonic is currently the runaway leader in the nascent battery market for electric vehicles, but LG Chem has the potential to overtake it in what will be a $30 billion market in 2020, according to a new report—“Watch the Throne: How LG Chem and Others Can Take Panasonic’s EV Battery... Read more →


According to a new technology briefing paper on hybrid system technologies by John German at the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), the costs of full-function hybrid systems are likely to drop to half the cost of their 2010 counterparts before 2025. Combined with the development of mild-hybrid systems (belt-alternator... Read more →


In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts global annual sales of light duty vehicles will reach 122.6 million by 2035, up 38% from a projected 88.8 million this year, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6%. Navigant Research expects the number of LDVs in use on roads worldwide... Read more →


Market analyst firm Lux Research has maintained a skeptical stance about the commercial prospects of graphene even in the light of the material’s compelling properties. In a 2012 report “Is Graphene the Next Silicon...Or Just the Next Carbon Nanotube?”, Lux examined the interplay between graphene’s compelling performance properties as an... Read more →


Frost & Sullivan projects Volkswagen Group to be the leader in 48V systems over next 10 years

In a new report on the prospects for 48V automotive systems (earlier post), consultancy Frost & Sullivan forecasts that the Volkswagen Group will lead in this area primarily because of Audi’s 48V offering (earlier post). The consultancy projects that by 2025, Volkswagen Group will have 48V volumes in excess of... Read more →


Driven by environmental problems, a growing auto industry, and a big policy push, China’s advanced energy storage market will be worth $8.7 billion in 2025, more than quadrupling from the current $1.7 billion, according to a new report from Lux Research called “Clearing the Haze: Demystifying Energy Storage Opportunities in... Read more →


Navigant forecasts annual plug-in electric vehicle sales in N America to exceed 1.1M by 2024

In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts that North American plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales will exceed 1.1 million annually by 2024. The report, Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts, provides data and forecasts for LD PEV sales in North America, including US states, MSAs, and utility service territories and Canadian provinces... Read more →


A fleet of self-driving shared cars combined with high-capacity public transport could make 90% of conventional cars in mid-sized cities superfluous under certain circumstances, according to a study published by the International Transport Forum (ITF) at the OECD. Even during peak hours, only about one-third (35%) of the current number... Read more →


Industry-wide cost estimates for battery packs for electric vehicles have declined by approximately 14% annually between 2007 and 2014, from above US$1,000 per kWh to around US$410/kWh, according to a systematic review of more than 80 different estimates by a team from the Stockholm Environment Institute. Further, they reported in... Read more →


EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

The Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that US energy imports and exports will come into balance—a first since the 1950s—because of continued oil and natural gas production growth and slow growth in energy demand. AEO2015 presents updated projections for US... Read more →


In a new research report, “The $102 Billion Opportunity in Partial Automation for Cars”, Lux Research calculates that the revenue opportunity from advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) features will grow from $2.4 billion today to $102 billion in 2030, corresponding to a 26% CAGR. The new estimates for the total... Read more →


In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts that total annual global light-duty start-stop vehicle (SSVs) sales will reach 59 million, accounting for 55% of all light duty vehicle sales. The same year, Navigant expects 82% of vehicles in Western Europe to have a stop-start feature, along with nearly 69% of... Read more →


Analysis by Lux Research suggests that the market space represented by the emerging lower-cost, 200-mile-range EV will be the biggest coming growth opportunity in electric storage for transportation. By 2020, this new EV battleground should account for $5 billion or more in Li-ion battery sales, because it combines larger packs... Read more →


Study: fully self-driving cars could result in fewer cars, but more miles driven per car

Autonomous vehicles (completely self-driving, level 4) may reduce the number of vehicles a family needs, but may lead to an increase in total miles driven per vehicle, according to a new analysis by researchers at the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute. UMTRI researchers Brandon Schoettle and Michael Sivak examined... Read more →


Bosch CEO: 15% of new cars by 2025 to be at least a hybrid; batteries to deliver 2x energy density for 1/2 current cost by 2020

Speaking at the 15th CAR Symposium in Bochum, Germany, Dr. Volkmar Denner, chairman of the board of management of Robert Bosch GmbH, said that that Bosch expects roughly 15% of all new cars built worldwide to have at least a hybrid powertrain by 2025. Denner, whose responsibilities on the board... Read more →


IHS Automotive forecasts 88.6M unit global light vehicle market in 2015; 2.4% growth

IHS Automotive forecasts global automotive sales for 2015 to reach 88.6 million, an increase of 2.4% over 2014, continuing an unbroken five-year run of sales recovery and growth from the low point set in the depth of the Great Recession in 2009. However, a slowdown is being signaled with just... Read more →


The current plunge in oil prices will likely negatively affect plug-in and hybrid vehicle sales in the short term; automakers such as BMW are already warning of lower sales of plug-in vehicles given the market context. However, an analysis by Lux Research suggests that despite some decrease in sales, sales... Read more →


ITF: Freight transport will replace passenger traffic as main CO2 source from surface transportation by 2050

In the face of shifting global trade patterns, international freight transport volumes will likely grow more than four-fold (factor 4.3) by 2050, according to the International Transport Forum at the OECD’s ITF Transport Outlook 2015. Average transport distance across all modes will increase 12%. As a result, CO2 emissions from... Read more →


Navigant forecasts 29.3% CAGR growth for electric-drive and electric-assisted commercial vehicles to nearly 160K units in 2023

In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts that global sales of electric drive and electric-assisted medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles (MHDV, Classes 3 to 8) will grow from less than 16,000 in 2014 to nearly 160,000 in 2023, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.3%. Powertrain type included... Read more →


A new study by Energy Environmental Economics (E3) consulting suggests that low-carbon gas fuels are a viable option for meeting California’s greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goals and can simultaneously help achieve pollution emission reduction targets. Low-carbon gas fuels or “decarbonized gas” refers to gaseous fuels with a net-zero, or very... Read more →


IHS: automotive semiconductor market up 10% in 2014 to $29B; hybrids, connectivity and ADAS major drivers

The automotive semiconductor market did exceptionally well in 2014, according to new analysis from IHS. Strong growth in vehicle production together with increased semiconductor content in cars resulted in 10% growth year over year to reach $29B. IHS reported that the fastest growing segments for automotive semiconductors are hybrid-electric vehicles,... Read more →


During the Automotive News World Congress this week, IBM released results of its new Automotive 2025 Global Study, outlining an industry ripe for disruptive changes that are breaking down borders of the automotive ecosystem. The study forecasts that while the automotive industry will offer a greater personalized driving experience by... Read more →


2015 forecast share by region. Data: Scotiabank. Click to enlarge. In its latest Global Auto Report, Scotiabank forecasts record global car sales in 2015, with the total market advancing 4% over 2014, reaching more than 74 million units. Global growth will mainly be driven by China, where Scotiabank expects auto... Read more →


Cumulative light-duty NGV sales by segment. Source: Navigant. Click to enlarge. In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts that light-duty natural gas vehicle (LD NGV) sales will grow 119% between 2014 and 2024, culminating in 42.1 million NGVs on the world’s roads and accounting for 2.8% of all vehicles on... Read more →


Emerging materials such as gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide (SiC) look to displace silicon in power electronic applications. While silicon and SiC (SiC-on-SiC) come in only one flavor, GaN comes in many different variants, including GaN-on-Si, GaN-on-SiC, and GaN-on-GaN. In a new report, Lux Research forecasts that the total... Read more →


As the world population increases by the estimated 30% from 2010 to 2040, ExxonMobil sees global GDP rising by about 140%, but energy demand by only about 35% due to greater efficiency. Click to enlarge. Significant growth in the global middle class, expansion of emerging economies and an additional 2... Read more →


In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts that global annual sales of e-bicycles will grow modestly from 31.7 million units in 2014 to 40.3 million units in 2023 under a base scenario—a CAGR of 2.7%. Navigant expects China, the market leader, to reach 28.8 million e-bicycle sales this year under... Read more →


Ford projects utility vehicles to account for 29% of its global sales by end of decade

Ford projects utility vehicles will account for 29% of its global sales by the end of the decade. Ford utility vehicles—ranging from the compact EcoSport to the eight-seat Expedition—accounted for 23% of brand sales globally in 2013, up from 17% a year earlier. Utility vehicle sales are expanding rapidly in... Read more →


Navigant Research forecasts that plug-in EVs (which include plug-in hybrids and battery EVs), will represent 2.4% of total worldwide light-duty vehicle sales by 2023, or about 2.5 million units. In its new report, “Global Forecasts for Light Duty Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, and Battery Electric Vehicle Sales and Vehicles in Use:... Read more →


The automotive turbocharging industry will generate $12 billion in revenue by equipping 49 million vehicles with turbochargers annually by 2019, according to Honeywell Turbo Technologies’ 2014 Global Turbo Forecast. The continued growth of turbocharging technologies will be driven by requirements for manufacturers to meet global environmental emissions regulations and bolstered... Read more →