GAO Report Concludes Plug-in Vehicles Offer Potential Benefits, but High Costs and Limited Information Could Hinder Integration into the Federal Fleet; Recommended Actions

The US federal government has set a goal—via Executive Order 13423—for federal agencies to use plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) as they become available at a reasonable cost. In response to a request from Representatives Henry Waxman (Chairman, Committee on Energy and Commerce); Edolphus Towns (Chairman, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform); and Darrell Issa (Ranking Member, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform), the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) examined the (1) potential benefits of plug-ins; (2) factors affecting the availability of plug-ins; and (3) challenges to incorporating plug-ins into the federal fleet.

The GAO found that increasing the use of plug-ins could result in environmental and other benefits, but also that realizing these benefits depends on several factors. Although plug-ins could significantly reduce oil consumption and those associated greenhouse gas emissions, the electricity used for charging the batteries would need to be generated from lower-emission fuels such as nuclear and renewable energy rather than the fossil fuels for PHEVs to reach their full potential.

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Study: Hydrofluorocarbons Will Contribute Significantly to Global Warming by 2050

Global ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and HFC emissions (A), global CO2 and HFC emissions (B), and ODS, HFC, and CO2 global RF (C) for the period 2000–2050. Velders et al. (2009) Click to enlarge.

The contribution of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) to global warming by 2050 will be more than that of current global CO₂ emissions from houses and office buildings, according to a study by team of scientists from a the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), DuPont Fluoroproducts, and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

These HFCs, gases used in refrigerators and air conditioners, are substitutes for ozone-depleting gases, but they are also strong greenhouse gases. Their contribution to global warming is currently small, but can increase to the equivalent of 9-19% (CO₂-eq. basis) of projected global CO₂ emissions in business-as-usual scenarios by 2050. This percentage increases to 28–45% compared with projected CO₂ emissions in a 450-ppm CO₂ stabilization scenario.

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GM Files Voluntary Chapter 11; Agreements with US Treasury and Canada; “New GM” Expected in 60-90 Days

General Motors Corp. reached agreements with the US Treasury and the governments of Canada and Ontario for the creation of a smaller, self-sustaining “New GM”. Pending approvals, the New GM is expected to launch in about 60 to 90 days as a separate and independent company from the current GM.

The New GM will incorporate only the “best brands” and operations, and benefit from shedding much of the older debt burden and operating cost structure. The New GM will incorporate the terms of GM’s recent agreements with the United Auto Workers (UAW) and Canadian Auto Workers (CAW) unions and will be led by GM’s current management team.

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CFR Report Says Energy Security and Climate Change Concerns With Oil Sands Can be Reconciled

Oil sands supply chain. Source: Levi 2009. Click to enlarge.

A new report from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)—The Canadian Oil Sands: Energy Security vs Climate Change— claims that prudent greenhouse gas regulations can limit emissions from Canadian oil sands while still enabling robust development of the energy resource.

The report argues that oil sands production delivers both energy security benefits and climate change damages, but warns that both are often overstated. “For the near future, the economic and security value of oil sands expansion will likely outweigh the climate damages that the oil sands create,” it says, “but climate concerns cannot and must not be ignored, and will become more important over time.” Policymakers, it emphasizes, must carefully balance the two concerns.

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Stanford Professor Urges EPA to Include Black Carbon in Endangerment Finding

In testimony for the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) public hearing (earlier post) on the proposed endangerment finding for greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act (earlier post), Stanford Professor Mark Jacobson urged the EPA to include black carbon in the finding.

Black carbon—soot—is a global-warming agent the immediate control of which will slow the demise of Arctic sea ice faster than will control of any other global-warming agent, Jacobson said. Jacobson first showed in 2000 that black carbon was the second-leading cause of global warming after carbon dioxide in terms of radiative forcing and, in 2002, that its control was the most effective method of slowing warming. In 2007, Jacobson and four colleagues testified in the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform on the role of black carbon. (Earlier post.)

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European Automotive Industry Outlines R&D Priorities for EU Green Car Initiative

European automotive suppliers and vehicle manufacturers have united to submit a series of R&D priorities to the European Commission to shape the European Green Car Initiative (EGCI), announced by the EU. CLEPA (the European umbrella membership organization representing the interests of the global automotive supply industry) and EUCAR (the European Council for Automotive R&D from the major European passenger car and commercial vehicle manufacturers) jointly prepared the document.

The Green Car Initiative, a part of the European economic recovery plan, aims to allocate €5 billion (US$6.7 billion) through a Public Private Partnership to bolster innovation in the automotive sector and sustain its focus on environmental progress. The initiative complements the European Clean Transport Facility which, through the European Investment Bank, serves to provide more immediate financial relief to the sector.

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DOE to Provide $786.5M from Recovery Act to Accelerate Biofuels Research and Commercialization

The US Department of Energy plans to provide $786.5 million from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act to accelerate advanced biofuels research and development and to provide additional funding for commercial-scale biorefinery demonstration projects. The funding is a mix of new funding opportunities and additional funding for existing projects. It will be allocated across four main areas: integrated pilot- and demonstration-scale biorefineries; commercial-scale biorefinery projects; fundamental research; and ethanol research.

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Biomass Program will leverage DOE’s national laboratories, universities, and the private sector to help improve biofuels reliability and overcome key technical challenges, with the goal of creating third-generation biofuels such as renewable gasoline, diesel, and jet fuels.

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EPA Proposes New Regulations for Renewable Fuel Standard to Implement Requirements of EISA; GHG Reduction and Indirect Land Use Change Effects Included

Example of results from EPA lifecycle analyses in the NPRM. Emissions for select fuel pathways for the two time horizon/discount rate approaches. (See below.) Click to enlarge.

The US Environmental Protection Agency released its expected Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) detailing the implementation of changes to the existing Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS1) as required by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA). The proposed rulemaking for RFS2 establishes new specific volume standards for cellulosic biofuel, biomass-based diesel, advanced biofuel, and total renewable fuel that must be used in transportation fuel each year. (Earlier post.)

The revised statutory requirements for RFS2 also include new definitions and criteria for both renewable fuels and the feedstocks used to produce them, including new greenhouse gas emission (GHG) thresholds for renewable fuels and the incorporation of indirect land use change effects.

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The Long View from SAE 2009 World Congress

by Bill Cooke

On 20 April, the opening day of the SAE 2009 World Congress, the AVL Technology Leadership Theater presented a forum on “Green Mobility—The Long View”. Organized by Shane Chang at Honda Research Institute USA Inc., the session counted among its panelists:

• Professor John Heywood, Sun Jae Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Director of the Sloan Auto Laboratory at MIT. Dr. Heywood recently co-authored a study called “On The Road in 2035—Reducing Petroleum Consumption and GHG Emissions.”

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California Energy Commission Adopts $176M Green Transportation Plan

The California Energy Commission has adopted the state’s first transportation Investment Plan. The Alternative and Renewable Fuels and Vehicle Technology Program’s Investment Plan allocates $176 million over the next two years to stimulate green transportation projects and encourage innovation to help meet the state’s aggressive climate change policies.

The Alternative and Renewable Fuels Vehicle Technology Program was established by Assembly Bill 118 (Núñez, Chapter 750, Statutes of 2007) and is an essential element of the California's climate change and energy policies. The state is aggressively working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, decrease petroleum fuel use to 15% below 2003 levels by 2020, and increase alternative fuel use to 20% by 2020.

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UK Government Launches £250M 5-Year Plan for Cutting CO2 from Road Transport; Includes Incentives for Purchase of PHEVs and EVs

High-level technology roadmap for the UK’s decarbonization of road transport. Click to enlarge.

The UK Transport and Business Secretaries launched the Government’s vision for cutting carbon from road transport over the next five years. Central to the £250-million (US$373-million) strategy is a consumer incentive initiative for plug-in vehicles worth £2,000 - £5,000 (US$3,000 - US$7,500) towards buying the first electric and plug-in hybrid cars when they hit the showrooms, expected to be from 2011 onwards.

The strategy also includes plans to provide £20 million (US$30 million) for charging points and related infrastructure to help develop a network of “electric car cities” throughout the UK and an expansion of an electric and ultra-low carbon car demonstration project on the UK’s roads. The demonstration project will involve more than 200 motorists throughout the country.

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All Western European Countries Will Have CO2-Related Car Taxation This Year; European Auto Industry Urges Harmonization of Schemes

The number of EU countries with CO2-related car taxation rose to 15 in 2008. With Germany set to introduce CO₂-related taxation in July of 2009, all Western European countries levy passenger car taxes that are partially or totally based on the car’s carbon dioxide emissions and/or fuel consumption, completing a trend that peaked in 2007 and 2008, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’s Association’s (ACEA) Tax Guide 2008 published this week.

Romania was the first and so far only Eastern European Member State to introduce CO₂-related taxation last year as part of a more comprehensive overhaul of vehicle taxation in the country. In most Central and Eastern European countries, the main concern of policy makers remains to reduce the level of old vehicles on the streets with pollutant emission standards of below Euro 3.

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Energy Learning Curve Survey Finds Americans Support Wide Array of Proposed Energy Policies, But Are Not Yet Ready to Make Tradeoffs

At least 10 major energy proposals that would provide incentives for energy efficiency, reduce gasoline usage and support alternative energy have the support of more than two-thirds of Americans, according to a new survey, “The Energy Learning Curve” released by Public Agenda, an opinion research and citizen engagement organization.

However, the survey also found that the public may not yet be prepared for the tradeoffs and challenges needed to make these proposals a reality, with majorities rejecting measures such as a floor on gasoline prices, congestion charges, or higher fuel taxes.

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Government of Canada to Regulate Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Vehicles; Prefers Harmonized North American Standard

The Government of Canada will introduce new regulations to limit greenhouse gas emissions from the automotive sector under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999 (CEPA). Environment Minister Jim Prentice made the announcement on Wednesday.

In keeping with the Government of Canada’s commitment to put these regulations in place for 2011 model year vehicles, the Government will proceed immediately to put regulations in place under CEPA. By taking this approach, the Government of Canada will have the flexibility to harmonize its regulations with the broad range of possible future actions from the US government to address greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, the Minister said.

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Presidential Auto Task Force Concluded Plug-In GM Volt Likely “Too Expensive To Be Commercially Successful in the Short-Term”

Following the short address on Monday during which President Barack Obama outlined the next steps for GM and Chrysler (earlier post), the White House posted summaries of the Presidential Auto Task Force’s assessment of the business plans provided by the two struggling automakers, which led to the terms that are currently unfolding.

Among the highlights of the brief summaries was the conclusion that while the Chevy Volt extended range electric vehicle holds promise, “it will likely be too expensive to be commercially successful in the short-term.”

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Obama Outlines Next Steps for GM and Chrysler

In a statement livecast on the Internet by the White House, President Barack Obama said that neither of the restructuring plans submitted by GM and Chrysler “goes far enough to warrant substantial new investment.”

In his short address, the President confirmed details that had emerged over the weekend about the next steps for the two auto makers. The government will provide GM with “adequate working capital” for 60 more days to “produce a better business plan”. Chrysler, which the government has determined requires a partner to survive, will have 30 days of working capital to conclude a deal with Fiat.

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European Parliament Adopts Resolution Calling for Measures to Support Job Creation in the Auto Industry and “Green Technologies”

A cross-party resolution adopted by the European Parliament (EP) calls for measures to support job creation in the European automotive industry, and to encourage the development of “green technologies”, with which there is “significant potential for job creation...in the automotive sector”. The resolution was adopted by 413 votes to 44 with 13 abstentions.

The European automotive industry is key to the EU economy, employing 12 million workers directly and indirectly—6% of the employed population in the European Union. The industry has been badly hit by the global economic crisis, and has seen a significant drop in demand during the last quarter of 2008 and the first of 2009.

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Global Fuel Economy Initiative Releases Roadmap Report on Achieving 50% Fuel Economy Improvement in LDV Fleet by 2050

The Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI)—a collaboration between the FIA Foundation, International Energy Agency, International Transport Forum and United Nations Environment Programme (earlier post)—released a report describing a roadmap and initial action plan to achieve a 50% improvement in fuel economy in the global light duty vehicle fleet by 2050.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has estimated that fuel consumption and emissions of CO₂ from the world’s cars will roughly double between 2000 and 2050. The IEA and ITF have developed a range of projections of possible “business-as-usual” scenarios around this, indicating the potential for a doubling (or more) of vehicle kilometers travelled (VKT) combined with modest improvements in vehicle fuel economy. These take into account an improvement in the fuel efficiency of new cars based on existing fuel economy regulations, mainly in OECD countries, with improvements slowing in most regions after 2015.

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Congressionally-created Commission Recommends Mileage Tax Instead of Fuel Tax for Transportation Infrastructure Financing

Average annual capital needs and gap estimates, all levels of government, 2008-35 (in 2008 dollars). Click to enlarge.

A bi-partisan Congressionally-created commission has recommended a shift from motor fuel taxes to direct fees charged to transportation infrastructure users—i.e., a federal mileage fee—as a way to reform financing of the US transportation infrastructure.

The recommendation is part of the final report issued by the National Surface Transportation Infrastructure Financing Commission, “Paying Our Way: A New Framework for Transportation Finance”. The commissioners noted that “while no first draft of a major reform is perfect”, they were unanimously offering the report as a road map for the transition to a new funding and finance framework.

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Study Concludes That an Aggressive Global Cellulosic Biofuels Program Could Have Unintended Consequences

Carbon balance associated with all land use change and that directly associated with biofuels over the period 2000-2050 as simulated by the deforestation (a) and intensification (b) scenarios. Melillo et al. (2009) Click to enlarge.

An aggressive global cellulosic biofuels program could contribute substantially to future global-scale energy needs, but could have significant unintended environmental consequences, according to a recent report by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.

Using simulation modeling, the researchers explored two scenarios for cellulosic biofuels production: the clearing of large swathes of natural forest, or the intensification of agricultural operations worldwide. The greenhouse gas implications of land-use conversion differ substantially between the two scenarios, but in both, numerous biodiversity hotspots suffer from serious habitat loss, the study found.

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DOE to Award Up to $300M in Stimulus Bill Funding for Projects to Expand Use of Alt-Fuel and Advanced Technology Vehicles

The US Department of Energy has issued a $300-million Funding Opportunity Announcement (DE-PS26-09NT01236-04) for applications for cost-shared projects that expand the use of alternative fueled vehicles and advanced technology vehicles. The installation or acquisition of infrastructure necessary to directly support an alternative fueled vehicle or advanced technology vehicle is also eligible.

The FOA modifies a much smaller and earlier-issued FOA by incorporating a supplemental $300 million appropriated by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 (the stimulus bill) for the Energy Policy Act (EPACT) of 2005 Section 721 to fund a competitive grant pilot program to be administered through the Clean Cities Program.

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USDA Awards $80M Loan Guarantee to Range Fuels; First Loan Guarantee to a Commercial-Scale Cellulosic Ethanol Plant

Overview of the Range Fuels two-step process. Source: Range Fuels. Click to enlarge.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has awarded Range Fuels, Inc. a conditional commitment for an $80 million loan guarantee to assist construction of Range Fuels’ commercial cellulosic ethanol plant near Soperton, Georgia, the first phase of which is under construction and on track to begin production in 2010.

This is the first loan guarantee to a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol plant. The $80 million loan comes from the Section 9003 Biorefinery Assistance Program authorized by the 2008 Farm Bill, which provides loan guarantees for commercial-scale biorefineries and grants for demonstration-scale biorefineries that produce advanced biofuels—defined as fuels that are not produced from food sources.

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Vehicle Scrappage Bill Introduced in Both US Senate and House

A measure introduced by US Senators Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Susan Collins (R-ME), and Charles Schumer (D-NY) would establish a national voucher program to encourage drivers to trade in older, less fuel efficient cars, trucks or SUVs for a more fuel-efficient vehicles or to use mass transit. Companion legislation was also introduced in the House by Representatives Steve Israel (D-NY), Jay Inslee (D-WA), Barbara Lee (D-CA), and Dennis Moore (D-KS).

The Accelerated Retirement of Inefficient Vehicles Retirement Act of 2009 (ARIVA)—also called the “Cash for Clunkers” program—would reimburse drivers with a credit of up to $4,500 for scrapping vehicles with a when-new fuel economy rating of less than 18 mpg US as reported by the original manufacturer for purposes of CAFE compliance. (CAFE compliance figures are lower than the adjusted EPA fuel economy ratings for consumers.)

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