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IEE forecasts electric-drive LDVs could constitute between 2 to 12% of US vehicle stock by 2035
April 22, 2013
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| Forecast by LDV scenario (millions). Source: IEE. Click to enlarge. |
Under its most conservative of scenarios, more than 5 million light-duty electric-drive vehicles will be on the road in the US by 2035, according to a new forecast by IEE, an institue of the Edison Foundation. According to the report, “Forecast of On-Road Electric Transportation in the US (2010-2035)”, this figure could increase to as high as 30 million EVs depending on advances in battery technology.
IEE developed three general scenarios for electric transportation: low, medium, and high. These scenarios provide projections based on EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2012 Reference Case, advances in battery technology (e.g., improved battery chemistry that allows for faster and deeper charging and reductions in battery cell and other component costs), and oil prices increasing to $200 per barrel:
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Toyota cumulative global hybrid sales pass 5M, nearly 2M in US
April 17, 2013
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| Cumulative global sales of TMC hybrid models as of 31 March 2013. Click to enlarge. |
Cumulative global sales of Toyota Motor Corporation’s (TMC’s) hybrid vehicles—including plug-in hybrids—topped the 5 million unit mark as of 31 March 2013, reaching 5.125 million units. Of the global total, sales in the US have accounted for nearly 2 million units (1,951,243).
Last year, hybrid vehicles accounted for 14% of TMC’s global vehicle sales and 40% of its vehicle sales in Japan. As of this month, TMC sells 19 hybrid passenger car models and one plug-in hybrid model in approximately 80 countries and regions around the world. Between now and the end of 2015, Toyota will introduce 18 new hybrid models and expects global sales of its hybrids to be at least 1 million units a year in the same period. TMS forecasts that about one-third of those will be sold in the United States.
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Tesla likely Q1 US PEV leader with 4,750+ sales in North America; Nissan surges with LEAF in March in US
April 04, 2013
With the US sales numbers for the first quarter of 2013 in, Tesla appears to be the leading seller of plug-in vehicles for that period, with more than 4,750 units of the model S sold in North America. (Earlier post.) (Tesla doesn’t break out sales by country at this time, so there are no US-specific figures from the company.)
GM posted sales of 4,244 Volt extended range electric vehicles in the US in the second quarter, representing an 8.4% increase year-on-year. March sales of the Volt in the US were weaker in March, with 1,478 units, compared to 2,289 units in March 2012, a decrease of 35.4%. (In Canada, GM sold 177 Volts in Q1, and 82 in March.)
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Tesla reports Model S sales exceed Q1 target; Q1 profitability; 40 kWh pack cancelled
April 01, 2013
Tesla Motors reported Q1 vehicle deliveries of more than 4,750 Model S units—exceeding the 4,500-unit Q1 target provided in the mid-February shareholder letter. (Earlier post.) As a result, Tesla is amending its Q1 guidance to full profitability, both GAAP and non-GAAP.
Tesla also announced that the small battery option for the Model S (earlier post) will not enter production, due to lack of demand. Only 4% of customers chose the 40 kWh battery pack, which is not enough to justify production of that version, the company said. The Model S originally offered three pack sizes: 40 kWh, 60 kWh and 85 kWh.
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Ford increasing EV-certified dealerships in US to 900; 3,405 plug-in vehicles sold in total so far
February 06, 2013
Ford will have one-third of its US dealers in all 50 states—more than 900—certified to sell the Focus Electric battery electric vehicle (BEV) and C-MAX Energi and Fusion Energi plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) by spring. The 900 dealers represent about one-third of all Ford dealers in the US—triple Ford projections for the time frame—and are an increase up from 200 in November 2012, the second full month the C-MAX Hybrid and C-MAX Energi plug-in hybrids were available.
For January 2013, Ford reported sales of 81 Focus Electric battery-electric vehicles and 338 C-MAX Energi plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Cumulative sales since market introduction for the Focus Electric (June 2012, except for 2 units delivered in January 2012) are 693 units; cumulative sales for the C-MAX Energi (October 2012) are 2,712 units, bring the total sales of plug-in vehicles to 3,405 units.
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GM and Nissan lead in US plug-in sales in December; GM and Toyota for the year
January 04, 2013
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| 2012 US sales of plug-in vehicles by major OEMs. Click to enlarge. |
GM was the US sales leader among the major OEMs for plug-in vehicles in December, and for 2012. GM sold 2,633 units of the Volt extended range electric vehicle in December, up 72.2% by volume from 1,529 units in December 2011. For the year, GM posted sales of 23,461 Volts, up 205.8% from the 7,671 units in 2011, giving it a dominant lead among the major OEMs in the nascent plug-in vehicles market for the year.
Nissan North America, Inc. (NNA) posted sales of 1,489 units of the LEAF in December, up 56.1% from the 954 units the year before; calendar year sales for the LEAF were 9,819 units, up 1.5% from the 2011 results. While Toyota took second place for the year, with 12,750 units of the Prius PHV plug-in hybrid, it dropped to third place in December with 1,361 units of the PHV.
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Pike Research forecasts hybrids and plug-ins to grow to 4% of European market in 2020
January 02, 2013
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| Pike’s projected vehicle sales by electrified drivetrain, European markets: 2012–2020. Click to enlarge. |
Pike Research forecasts that electric vehicles—conventional hybrids (HEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and battery-electrics (BEVs)—will grow from 0.7% of the market in Europe in 2012 to 4% in 2020. While that is still a small portion of the market, it represents more than 827,000 vehicles per year, Pike notes. The biggest growth is expected in BEVs followed by PHEVs, with HEVs lagging behind.
Pike Research forecasts that by 2020 more than 1.8 million BEVs will be on Europe’s roadways, along with 1.2 million PHEVs and 1.7 million HEVs.
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Polk expects 2013 US new vehicle registrations to grow 6.6% to 15.3M; only slight improvement in hybrid category
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| Polk light vehicle forecast through 2016. Data: Polk. Click to enlarge. |
New light vehicle registrations in the US in 2013 are expected to rise 6.6% over 2012 levels to 15.3 million vehicles, according to Polk, a global automotive market intelligence firm. At the same time, Polk analysts forecast North American production volumes to increase to the 15.9 million unit range (an anticipated 2.4% increase from 2012), driven by an improving economy and capacity expansion in the region.
According to Polk’s analysis, new vehicle introductions in 2013 will escalate significantly, with 43 new vehicle introductions in the US planned for the year, up nearly 50% over 2012 levels, along with 60 vehicle redesigns. While the number of available hybrid models in the US will also increase this year, Polk anticipates only a slight improvement in this category from its current level of approximately 2.9% of the overall market.
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Cumulative global sales of Lexus hybrids pass half-million mark
December 21, 2012
From the sale of the first RX 400h in 2005 through to the end of November this year, Lexus has sold more than 506,000 of its hybrid vehicles. In 2005, 26,000 Lexus hybrids were sold; by 30 November this year the annual total was at 113,000. Today, hybrids account for about 25% of all Lexus sales. Cumulative global sales of all Toyota Motor Corporation (TMC)-produced hybrid vehicles—i.e., including the Lexus brand—since 1997 topped 4.60 million units at the end of October. (Earlier post.)
The RX 400h, launched in 2005, was the world’s first production full hybrid luxury SUV. Succeeded by the RX 450h in 2009, it has claimed the largest share of Lexus hybrid sales (51.2%), with 259,000 units sold through to November this year.
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Pike Research updates xEV forecasts; projects Ford to lead US PEV market, followed by GM
Pike Research has published an update to its earlier forecasts on xEVs: hybrid (HEVs); plug-in hybrid (PHEVs); and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). As a result of new assumptions, Pike Research has slightly reduced its forecasts for plug-in vehicles (PEVs: PHEVs and BEVs combined) from past forecasts.
This reduction was driven largely by the slow growth of BEVs in the United States (the largest market for PEVs) in 2012 and the postponement of some vehicle launches, the research firm noted. However, Pike still anticipates 39% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) between 2012 and 2020. In contrast, the CAGRs for HEVs and the total vehicle market are estimated at 6% and 2%, respectively. Highlights of the forecast include:
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German automotive companies launch “clean-diesel” marketing campaign in US
December 12, 2012
Six German automotive companies—passenger car manufacturers Audi, BMW, Daimler, Porsche and Volkswagen, and the supplier Bosch—launched their first joint campaign for diesels in the US. Under the slogan “Clean Diesel. Clearly Better.” they will argue for the advantages of modern diesel passenger car technology over gasoline engines in terms of cleanliness, consumption and performance.
The new vehicle market share of light-duty diesels in the US is quite low (2.6%) compared with a diesel share of 55% in Western Europe. However, sales of diesel passenger cars by German manufacturers—representing 100% of the market in diesel passenger cars in the US—have more than doubled over the last three years. In the first nine months of the current year, around 69,600 diesel cars were sold in the USA, compared to 30,600 for the same period in 2009.
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Ford sold 1,259 C-MAX Energi plug-in hybrids, 179 Focus Electrics in November
December 04, 2012
Ford reported selling 1,259 units of the C-MACX Energi plug-in hybrid in November, with cumulative sales of 1,403 units including 144 units from October, when the vehicle went on sale. Ford also reported its best month yet for the Focus Electric, with 172 units sold, bring the total for the year through November to 518 units.
Those results place Ford, with total plug-in vehicle sales for the month of 1,431 units, behind Toyota, Nissan and GM—respectively first (1,766 units of Prius PHV); second (1,539 LEAFs); and third (1,519 Volts)—in plug-in vehicle sales for November. (Earlier post.)
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Toyota takes the lead in US November plug-in vehicle sales; LEAF in second, Volt third
December 03, 2012
With Ford not having yet released the break-out of its C-MAX Energi plug-in hybrid sales for the month, Toyota is in the lead for plug-in vehicle sales from the major automakers in November in the US, posting 1,766 units of the Prius PHV plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. From January through November, Toyota has sold 11,389 units of the Prius PHV in the US.
For November, the Nissan LEAF edged past GM’s Volt, posting 1,539 units (up 129% from November 2011) to the Volt’s 1,519 (up 33.4% from November 2011). January-November sales of the LEAF are 8,330, down 4.5% from 8,720 for the same period last year. January-November sales of the Volt are 20,828 units, up 239.1% from 6,142 units for the same period last year.
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Cumulative sales of Toyota Motor hybrids top 2M units in Japan, 4.6M worldwide; 1.02M from Jan to Oct. (corrected)
November 08, 2012
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| Global annual sales of TMC hybrids. Data: TMC. Click to enlarge. |
Cumulative sales in Japan of Toyota Motor Corporation (TMC) hybrid vehicles—including plug-in hybrids—reached 2.04 million units as of 31 October. Globally, cumulative sales of TMC-produced hybrid vehicles since the first was launched in 1997 have now topped 4.60 million units, with 1.02 million selling from January 1 through October 31 this year.
Of the global 4.6 million units, the Prius family accounts for 3.3 million (71.5%): 2,804.9 million Prius; 224,000 Prius α (Prius v); 259,700 Aqua (Prius c). The hybrid model with the next highest cumulative sales is the Camry (317,200)—6.9% of the global total—followed by the RX 400h/RX 450h with 256,600 units (5.6%).
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GM, Toyota continue to lead plug-in market in US
November 04, 2012
The Volt remained the top-selling plug-in vehicle in the US in October. GM delivered a record 2,961 Volts—a 167% increase by volume from October 2011. From January through October 2012, GM has delivered 19,309 Volts—an increase of 286% from the same period in 2011. Overall, GM reported its highest October sales in the US since 2007, with deliveries up 5% versus a year ago to 195,764 vehicles. Year-on-year sales to retail customers were up 7% and sales to fleet customers were down 2%.
Toyota maintained its second place position with 1,889 units sold of the Prius PHV in October. Year-to-date, Toyota has sold 9,623 units of the Prius plug-in hybrid. Prius family sales in October were 16,774 units, up 52.4% year-on-year. The Prius Sedan accounted for 8,788 units; the Prius c, 3,328 units; and the Prius v, 2,769 units. Overall, Toyota sales were up 15.8% to 155,242 units.
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Ford C-MAX Hybrid posts 3,182 units in first full month of sales, outpacing Prius v
November 02, 2012
Ford’s new C-MAX Hybrid (earlier post) sold 3,182 units in October in its first full month of sales, outselling the Prius v’s 2,769 units. (Sales of the entire Prius family were 16,774 units, with the sedan accounting for 8,788 of those.) The C-MAX Hybrid also led Ford in achieving its best October hybrid sales month ever with a total of 4,612 sales, up 142% over October 2011.
The C-MAX Hybrid is EPA-rated at 47 mpg US city, highway and combined. C-MAX Hybrid sales also helped Ford deliver its best October for small car sales in 11 years. Ford sales of Focus, C-MAX and Fiesta were up 54% to 25,493 units year over year.
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Cumulative worldwide sales of Honda hybrids passes 1 million units
October 15, 2012
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. announced that its cumulative worldwide sales of hybrid vehicles surpassed 1 million units as of the end of September 2012. This milestone was reached 12 years and 11 months after the start of sales of the first generation Insight in Japan November 1999, which realized fuel economy of 35 km/liter (82.3 mpg US, 2.86 L/100k m) on the 10･15 mode with a 5-speed MT vehicle—at the time the world’s highest fuel economy among all mass-production gasoline-powered vehicles.
Toyota hit the 1-million mark for cumulative global hybrid sales at the end of May 2007 (earlier post), and has since rocketed past 4 million cumulative units. (Earlier post.) Toyota unveiled the Toyota Hybrid System (THS) in March 1997, then launched its first hybrid production vehicle (the Coaster) in Japan that August, followed by the first-generation Prius in December 1997.
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Global auto production may hit 80+ million units this year; hybrids below 2% of total output
September 11, 2012
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| Worldwide light-duty vehicle production. Source: Worldwatch. Click to enlarge. |
Production of light-duty passenger vehicles (cars and light trucks) rose from 74.4 million in 2010 to 76.8 million in 2011, and 2012 may bring an all-time high of 80 million or more vehicles, according to new research conducted by the Worldwatch Institute for its Vital Signs Online service. Hybrids remain below 2% of total vehicle output.
Global sales of passenger vehicles increased from 75.4 million to 78.6 million over the same period, with a projected 81.8 million in 2012, writes report author and Worldwatch Senior Researcher Michael Renner. The major driver of increased production and sales are the emerging economies, especially China.
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PHEVs led August US sales of plug-in vehicles; Volt and Prius PHV dominate
September 05, 2012
In August, the US sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) from the major OEMs (Chevy Volt and Prius PHV) totalled 3,336 units, while battery-electric vehicles (Nissan LEAF, Honda Fit EV, and Ford Focus Electric) sold a combined 728 units. Year-to-date, plug-in hybrid sales from these majors have totalled 19,579 units, while their battery-electric vehicle sales reached 4,406 units.
The Chevrolet Volt sold 2,831 units, setting a new monthly sales record and maintaining its lead in plug-in vehicle sales among the major OEMs. Volt set its prior sales record in March, with 2,289 units. The August 2012 results marked an 837.4% increase in sales by volume compared to the 302 units posted in August 2011. Year-to-date Volt sales reached 13,497 units, up 325.5% from the same period in 2011.
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Toyota targeting production of more than 10 million vehicles in CY 2012
August 06, 2012
Toyota Motor Corporation (TMC) has revised its calendar year 2012 sales and production plans, targeting worldwide production of 10,050,000 vehicles and worldwide sales of 9,760,000 vehicles for the year.
The production target reflects a 28% increase in combined Toyota, Daihatsu and Hino from earlier plans and a 23% increase in combined sales. The company is planning a 28% increase in production of Toyota vehicles alone to 8,870,000 units.
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JD Power 2012 APEAL highlights ongoing downsizing trend for new car buyers in US; increasing satisfaction with smaller vehicles
July 26, 2012
J.D. Power and Associates’ latest APEAL (Automotive Performance, Execution and Layout) study—an examination of how gratifying a new vehicle is to own and drive, based on owner evaluations of more than 80 vehicle attributes—highlights an ongoing downsizing trend among US auto buyers, and finds that owners of small cars and light trucks are often just as satisfied with their vehicles as owners of larger ones.
The 2012 APEAL Study finds that 27% of new-vehicle buyers who replaced a vehicle downsized—i.e., purchased a new vehicle in a smaller segment than the vehicle they replaced. In contrast, only 13% of buyers upsized, while 60% purchased a new vehicle in the same segment as their previous vehicle.
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Volt continues to be top-selling plug-in in US; Prius PHV #2, LEAF #3
July 04, 2012
The Chevrolet Volt was the top-selling plug-in vehicle (PEs) in the US in June 2012, posting 1,760 units, up 213.7% by volume from the 561 units in June 2011. For the first six months of the year, Volt sales reached 8,817 units, up 221.2% from 2,745 units in the first half of 2011.
The Toyota Prius PHV posted 695 units, representing 3.6% of the 19,150 units of Prius family sales in June, and taking second place for PEV sales for the month. The Prius sedan posted 11,514 units (60.1% of family sales); the Prius C, 3,657 units (19.1%); and the Prius V, 3,284 units (17.1%).
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Pike Research projects plug-in sales to fall short of US 2015 target; strong growth through 2020
July 02, 2012
Plug-in vehicle (PEV) sales—comprising battery-electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV)—in the US by 2015 will fall far short of the 1-million unit target set by the Obama Administration, according to a new report from Pike Research. Pike now projects that some 410,000 PEVs will be sold between 2011 and 2015 in the United States, with cumulative US sales not reaching the 1 million mark until 2018.
Pike nevertheless expects PEV sales to ramp up strongly in the second half of this decade, with global PEV sales surpassing 1 million vehicles per year in 2017 and, by 2020, reaching 1,748,268 units—about 1.7% of the 103 million global light-duty vehicle sales expected in 2020, according to Pike. At the end of the decade, hybrid electric vehicles will see 1.6 million annual sales. bringing the total annual sales of battery-powered vehicles to some 3.4 million units, Pike said.
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Pike Research forecasts clean diesels to represent more than 12% of global light-duty vehicle sales by 2018; outpacing hybrids in North America
June 20, 2012
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| Annual clean diesel ldv sales by region, world markets: 2012-2018. Source: Pike Research. Click to enlarge. |
A new report from Pike Research finds that rising fuel prices and stronger fuel economy regulations will stimulate increasing demand for clean diesel vehicles in markets around the world, and forecasts sales of these vehicles will increase from 9.1 million in 2012 to 12.1 million annually by 2018, representing 12.4% of all LDV sales by the end of that period.
With rising gas prices and stronger fuel economy regulations coming into effect, the United States should see rising demand for diesel cars and trucks, Pike suggests. North America has been a weak market for diesel for 20 years, due to the low price of gasoline as well as diesel’s reputation for being smelly, dirty and unreliable. Additionally, US LDV emissions regulations do not treat gasoline and diesel cars separately, and US NOx levels for LDVs are very low and challenging for diesel vehicles to meet.
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Fisker reports more than $100M in revenue Jan-Apr 2012; more than $1B in funding since 2007
May 29, 2012
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| The EVer (Electric Vehicle extended range) powertrain of the Fisker Karma. Click to enlarge. |
Fisker Automotive published its first business update, announcing that revenues had exceeded $100 million in the first four months of 2012. The company, which began deliveries of the Fisker Karma luxury four-door extended range electric sedan in December 2011, also said that it has delivered 1,000 vehicles to customers in the US and Europe.
In the first few months of 2012, Fisker has continued to raise private equity investment to fund its expansion plans, securing $174 million of additional private financing since the start of the year. The latest funding has lifted the overall financing beyond $1 billion since the start of the company in 2007.
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Worldwide sales of Toyota Motor hybrids top 4M units; Prius family accounts for almost 72%
May 22, 2012
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| Cumulative worldwide sales of TMC hybrids. Data: TMC. Click to enlarge. |
Toyota Motor Corporation (TMC) announced that global cumulative sales of its hybrid vehicles—passenger car and commercial—topped the 4-million unit mark as of 30 April. The company reached the 3-million mark with its hybrids in February 2011.
Of these, the original Prius (liftback) accounts for 65.8% of cumulative sales, with 2.631 million units sold—44% of those sales were in Japan, and 56% overseas. The expanded Prius family—Prius, Prius α/v (138K), 81% in Japan; Prius Aqua/c (95.5K), 87% in Japan; and Prius PHV (7.3K), 64% in Japan—accounts for 71.8% of cumulative TMC hybrid sales.
