[Due to the increasing size of the archives, each topic page now contains only the prior 365 days of content. Access to older stories is now solely through the Monthly Archive pages or the site search function.]
Lux: plug-in vehicle battery market to hit $10B in 2020; 6 carmakers = 90% of demand; VW to show most growth
June 28, 2016
Led by Tesla, China’s BYD, and Volkswagen, the battery market for plug-in vehicles will rise to $10 billion in 2020, with electric vehicles (EV) emerging as the drivetrain of choice, according to a new forecast by Lux Research. Volkswagen will show the most growth as it focuses on plug-ins following its emissions scandal, while Toyota will continue to lag in plug-in sales as it focuses more on hybrids and fuel cells.
Just six large carmakers will account for 90% of the battery demand: Tesla, BYD, Volkswagen, General Motors (GM), Renault-Nissan and BMW. Among battery-makers, Panasonic will keep its lead with 46% market share, followed by BYD, LG Chem, NEC, Samsung SDI and others.
Worldwide sales of Toyota hybrids surpass 9 million units; Prius family accounts for 63%
May 20, 2016
Toyota Motor Corporation announced that the cumulative figures for global sales of its hybrid vehicles reached 9.014 million units as of 30 April. This latest million-unit milestone was achieved in just nine months.
The Prius family still accounts for the majority of sales: 5.691 million units, or 63% of the total global cumulative number. (Prius: 3.733 million; Prius α, Prius v, Prius +: 0.634 million; Aqua, Prius c: 1.249 million; Prius PHV: 0.075 million). As of the end of April 2016, Toyota is selling 33 hybrid electric passenger car models (HEVs) and one plug-in hybrid (PHEV) model in more than 90 countries and regions.
Euro Big 5 auto markets up 8.6% in April, SUVs continue to dominate; shift in segment shares
May 13, 2016
Led by strong growth in Spain and Italy, new car registrations in Europe’s Big 5 markets grew by 8.6% to 958,400 units in April 2016, according to the latest figures from JATO Dyanmics. After the UK’s traditional volume peak in March, which saw registrations rise to 1.36 million, April produced further gains across the top five European markets with SUVs driving higher volume and counting for 24.4% and 24.9% of April’s and YTD’s totals respectively. The Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) came in at 11.35 million, up from March registrations of 11.04 million and significantly higher than the 10.48 million in April 2015.
Germany continued to lead the market, with volume up by 8.4% at 315,900 units, accounting for a third of the Big 5’s total. After a relatively flat March, April saw registrations grow healthily, bringing the YTD total to 1.11 million units, up by 5.6% over January-April 2015. April’s volume for Germany was the highest since 2009. The UK also saw positive growth—despite only seeing a 2.0% rise on April 2015, last month was the best April for UK car registrations for a decade.
Edmunds.com: EV and hybrid loyalty falls to all-time low
April 21, 2016
Only 27.5% of all hybrid and electric vehicle trade-ins in the US in 2016 have been applied to the purchase of another hybrid or EV, according to a new analysis from car shopping destination Edmunds.com. The rate is a sharp drop from the 38.5% of hybrid and EV trade-ins in 2015, and the findings reinforce a trend first identified last year by Edmunds that owners of alt-fuel vehicles are returning to traditional gasoline-powered vehicles in greater numbers than ever before.
Edmunds’ analysis found that a hybrid or electric trade-in is more likely to go toward the purchase of a SUV (33.8%) than another hybrid or EV. The trend is even more apparent when looking only at EV trade-ins—25.7% of EV trade-ins went toward the purchase of a SUV, compared to just 4.8% that went toward another EV.
Volvo Cars sets target of 1M electrified cars sold by 2025
Volvo Cars aims to sell a total of up to one million electrified cars by 2025. The Swedish company plans to achieve this aim by offering at least two hybrid versions of every model in its range and releasing the first all-electric car in 2019.
Volvo Cars has been readying itself for the emergence of electrified vehicles for the last five years. It has developed two all new vehicle architectures for larger and smaller cars—Scalable Product Architecture (SPA) (earlier post) and Compact Modular Architecture (CMA) (earlier post)—that can incorporate either hybrid or fully electric car technology.
Toyota Motor Europe hybrid sales up 38% in first quarter; 30% hybrid mix
April 14, 2016
Toyota Motor Europe (TME) reported a 38% increase in its Q1 2016 hybrid sales (Toyota and Lexus brands) versus the same period last year, representing 30% of total sales, compared to 24% for the full calendar year 2015. The Toyota brand hybrids accounted for 59,608 units (+43% year-on-year) for a hybrid mix of 27%; Lexus brand hybrids posted 12,141 units (+15% year-on-year), for a hybrid mix of 67%.
Total TME sales for the first quarter of 2016 were 241,600 Toyota and Lexus vehicles, an increase of 5.1% from Q1 2015, in a European market still split between growth in the West and Central Europe (+7.9%) and further decline in the East (-10%). Total market share for the group stood at 4.8%.
Ford logs strongest-ever calendar year start for SUVs in US; sales bolstered by women and Millenials
March 17, 2016
Ford recorded 115,228 SUV US sales at retail through the first two months of 2016, making for the best-yet calendar year start for Ford SUVs (Escape, Edge, Flex, Explorer, Police Interceptor Utility, Expedition) ever, highlighted by a best-ever February. Sales of Ford’s utilities for January and February 2016 were up 16.1% compared to the same period in 2015. As a comparison, over the same periods, total Ford brand sales rose 8.6%, with sales of Ford cars rising 3.0% and Ford trucks up 7.6%
Explorer sales rose 18% last month over February 2015; Explorer is Ford’s best-selling SUV with millennial buyers ages 25 to 34, and the best-selling midsize SUV with women, according to Ford analysis of the most recent personal new vehicle registrations in the US from IHS Automotive. Escape, coming off a record sales year in 2015, was up 14% through the first two months of 2016, while Edge sales jumped 56%.
Tesla projects GAAP profit in Q4 2016; 80k-90k new Model S and Model X in 2016
February 11, 2016
In its Q4 and Full Year 2015 update, Tesla projected being net cash flow positive and achieving non-GAAP profitability for the year, even factoring in a $1.5-billion investment to add more production capacity, start cell production at the Gigafactory, and establish additional customer support infrastructure. Tesla expects moderate GAAP profitability is expected in the fourth quarter. Model 3 is on schedule to be unveiled on 31 March, with production and delivery slated for late 2017.
Tesla delivered 17,478 vehicles in Q4, including 206 Model X vehicles. Tesla directly leased 881 cars to customers in Q4, about the same percentage as last quarter and worth $85 million of aggregate transaction value. As expected, Model S average transaction price declined by about 2% due to vehicle and option mix. Price increases outside the US offset the impact of unfavorable movements in foreign currencies during the quarter.
Toyota hybrid sales in Europe up 17% in 2015, representing 24% of total TME sales
January 14, 2016
Despite the lowest gasoline prices in Europe in 5 years, Toyota Motor Europe’s (TME) sales of hybrid vehicles continued their 5-year increase to reach 209,000 units for the full year 2015, up 17% year-on-year. Sales of Toyota and Lexus-branded hybrid vehicles now represent 24% of the group’s sales on the continent, up from 20% a year ago. In Western Europe only, sales of hybrid represent a third of total sales. Overall sales of Toyota and Lexus vehicles were 874,000 units in 2015, a drop of 1.5% year-on-year.
Within those hybrid sales, the Yaris hybrid recorded sales of 72,000 in 2015, up 23% versus last year, showing that hybrid technology is accessible even on a B-segment vehicle. More than one in three Yaris sold in Europe is a hybrid.
PwC: electrified vehicle sales on the rise in Europe, continued growth expected
January 13, 2016
PwC’s Autofacts group estimates sales of pure electric, plug-in mild and full hybrids will grow 433% to 2.2 million units by 2021, driven by a number of factors, including regulatory pressure. While alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs)—including hybrids and pure electric—are gaining consumer acceptance in the European Union (EU), even in the face of decreased fuel prices, these reduced emission offerings are still a comparatively low%age of overall vehicle sales in this critical market.
Pure electric and plug-in hybrids vehicle sales grew 82.2% from September 2014 to September 2015, as opposed to mild and full hybrids which increased 22% during the same period. The significant EV growth can be attributed to several factors, according to PwC, including consumer desire for more emission-friendly vehicles, the maturation of pure electric technologies and their positive perception among consumers, and continued government incentives.
Navigant forecasts global annual natural gas vehicle sales to reach 3.9M in 2025, up 62.5% from 2015
December 28, 2015
In its new Natural Gas Vehicles report, Navigant Research forecasts that global annual NGV sales—light-, medium- and heavy-duty—will grow 62.5% from 2.4 million vehicles in 2015 to 3.9 million in 2025.
Navigant forecasts that the number of light-duty NGVs on the world’s roads will double by 2025 to 39.6 million, accounting for 2.6% of all LDVs. Overall, Navigant expects the worldwide market for light-duty NGVs to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3% between 2015 and 2025.
Bain: Germany’s goal of 1M electric cars by 2020 is unattainable; fewer than 50,000 units on road by end of this year
December 23, 2015
The German Federal Government plan to have one million electric cars on its roads by 2020 has failed, according to the analysis of international management consulting firm Bain & Company. By the end of 2015, there will be a total of about 50,000 electric cars and plug-in hybrids on the roads in Germany (about 75% below plan); nevertheless, structural transformation towards electromobility is continuing, according to the firm.
Stricter emission laws and the technological advances in electric drives will accelerate the trend towards e-mobility in the medium term, Bain said.
Navigant forecasts global light duty electrified vehicle sales to exceed 6.0M in 2024; PEVs to account for roughly half
December 21, 2015
In a new report, Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts, Navigant research projects that under its base scenario, global sales of light duty electrified vehicles (i.e., vehicles that use electricity for traction, including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery-electrics) will grow from 2.6 million vehicle sales in 2015 to more than 6.0 million in 2024.
Under a conservative scenario, Navigant forecasts more than 5.8 million electrified vehicles by 2024, while the aggressive scenario sees more than 6.4 million. Navigant estimates that sales of plug-in vehicles (PEVs) accounted for roughly 19% of electrified vehicle sales in 2015; in 2024, Navigant expects light duty PEVs to capture between 47% and 51% of the electrified vehicle market.
$12B EV deal: NEVS to provide Panda with 150K 9-3 EVs through 2020, 100K other EV products and services
December 17, 2015
National Electric Vehicle Sweden (NEVS) and the Chinese company Panda New Energy Co., Ltd. have signed a strategic collaboration agreement under which NEVS will provide Panda with 150,000 9-3 sedan electric vehicles through the end of 2020. In addition, the agreement also includes 100,000 other EV products and services from companies associated to NEVS and its owners. The total value of the agreement is 78 billion RMB (US$12 billion).
Panda New Energy is a new energy vehicle leasing company with focus on low emission mobility solutions. Cooperating with many chauffeured car service platforms in China, Panda aims to become one of the biggest EV leasing companies in the world.
JATO Dynamics: 2016 will be record year for plug-ins with global sales in excess of 700K units; China to begin dominating the market
November 18, 2015
A new white paper from JATO Dynamics, the UK-based supplier of automotive business intelligence, projects, based on its partner LMC Automotive’s forecasts, that the global market for plug-in vehicles (plug-in hybrid and battery-electric vehicles) will reach record sales in excess of 700,000 units next year thanks to strong growth in China, Europe and the US. This will be followed by strong annual growth, according to the report.
Global electric passenger car sales totalled 280,000 units in 2014, representing growth of 43% compared with 2013; total global passenger car sales that year were 72 million units. The report projects annual EV sales in Europe of 500,000 units by 2019. By 2022, the Chinese market is expected to account for half of global sales—almost 1.5 million units a year. The forecast for 2025 sees more than 5.5 million electric vehicles being sold worldwide.
Propel Fuels reports strong consumer adoption of renewable diesel in SoCal; retail sales up 300% over biodiesel
Propel launched Diesel HPR across Southern California in August 2015, and consumer adoption of the fuel has risen 300% compared to its former biodiesel product (B20). (Earlier post.) Utilizing Neste’s NEXBTL renewable diesel, Propel’s Diesel HPR is a low-carbon, drop-in renewable fuel that meets the ASTM D-976 petroleum diesel specifications for use in diesel engines, while offering drivers better performance and lower emissions.
Performance features include a 75 cetane rating, 40 percent higher than regular diesel. Diesel HPR provides cleaner and more efficient combustion for more power and a smoother ride at a cost similar to or lower than petroleum diesel.
Ford EcoBoost US sales up 46% year-to-date; tracking to top 1 million in US in 2015 for 1st time
November 11, 2015
Year-to-date, total sales of EcoBoost-powered Ford vehicles are up 46%; F-150, Escape and Fusion are the top-selling EcoBoost-powered Ford vehicles. Ford expects 2015 will be the first year in which EcoBoost-equipped vehicles in the United States exceed 1 million sales.
For 2015, EcoBoost is available on every non-hybrid light-duty passenger vehicle in Ford’s US lineup. The technology combines smaller engines with turbocharging, direct injection and variable valve timing—as well as Ford’s proprietary EcoBoost engine management software—to deliver improved fuel efficiency along with performance. Ford’s global EcoBoost engine family now includes the 1.0-liter three-cylinder; 1.5-liter, 1.6-liter, 2.0-liter and 2.3-liter four-cylinder engines; and the powerful 2.7-liter and 3.5-liter V6 engines. A Lincoln-exclusive 3.0-liter V6 debuts in 2016.
Euro NCAP introducing new test for autonomous emergency braking
November 10, 2015
European safety organisation Euro NCAP is introducing a new test that will check how well vehicles autonomously detect and prevent collisions with pedestrians. With new vehicles offering more autonomous driver assist systems, Euro NCAP’s Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) Pedestrian tests will make it simpler for consumers and manufacturers to find out which systems work best.
Euro NCAP will test vehicles’ response to pedestrians in simulations of the three most common urban scenarios: adults walking and running into the vehicle’s path and a child stepping out from behind a parked car. To earn a good score in the test, vehicles should be able to prevent collisions with specially developed pedestrian dummies at speeds of up to 40 km/h (25mph). At more challenging speeds of 40-60 km/h (25-37mph), the tests aim to reduce the collision speed to less than 40 km/h, making the impact more survivable.
Tesla Q3 revenue up 10% year-on-year, losses widen; robust production outlook
November 04, 2015
Tesla Motors reported total GAAP revenue of $937 million in Q3 2015, up 10% from the prior year. Total Q3 non-GAAP revenue was $1.24 billion for the quarter, up nearly 33% from a year ago. Losses for the quarter widened to $230 million, an increase over the $75-million loss in Q3 2014.
Tesla delivered 11,603 vehicles in Q3, slightly above its earlier guidance. GAAP automotive revenue in Q3 was $853 million, up 6.7%. For its non-GAAP accounting, Tesla recorded a net increase of $307 million in deferred revenue as a result of lease accounting, bringing the figure the company calculates as its non-GAAP automotive revenue to $1.16 billion.
Kia Motors America expands Soul EV availability to four additional states; 10 total
October 07, 2015
Following the launch of the Soul EV (earlier post) late last year in California, along with sales beginning in Georgia, Texas, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii earlier this year, Kia Motors America (KMA) is expanding availability of its fully charged urban runabout into four new states: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Maryland. KMA’s announcement will bring the total number of states selling the Soul EV to 10.
Nineteen Kia dealers will be certified to sell and service the Soul EV across these four states, and customers will have access to charging stations installed at these facilities. The Soul EV will be sold in eight New York dealerships, six New Jersey dealerships, three Maryland dealerships, and two Connecticut dealerships. From January through September, KMA has sold 727 units of the Soul EV, according to the monthly compilation by hybridcars.com.
Q3 Roland Berger E-Mobility Index finds stagnant sales, lack of concepts to persuade customers to go electric
September 14, 2015
The latest E-Mobility Index from Roland Berger and Forschungsgesellschaft Kraftfahrwesen mbH Aachen (fka) for the third quarter of 2015 finds that the market share of electric vehicles in the seven leading automotive nations—Germany, France, Italy, the USA, Japan, China and South Korea—remains stubbornly low. “The major growth impetus that would anchor e-mobility in the seven leading automotive nations long term is still nowhere to be seen,” the report states.
While insufficient battery range is a part of the reason, more importantly there is a lack of specific concepts that can persuade customers to buy an electric car, the report finds. The index regularly compares the relative competitive standings of the top seven automotive nations in the electromobility segment based on three indicators: technology, industry and market. Key takeaways from this latest analysis include:
IHS cuts 2015 light vehicle sales forecast in China to 23.4 million; deeper cut for 2016
September 11, 2015
IHS revised downward its forecast for light vehicle sales in China, projecting a decline of 3 to 4 percent from previous estimates for 2015. IHS Automotive has reduced its full year 2015 light vehicle sales forecast for China to 23.4 million units, reflecting a growth rate over 2014 of just 1.4 percent, compared with its previous forecast of 4.4 percent year-over-year growth.
Recent sales data—when combined with the slump in the Purchasing Manager’s Index and currency devaluation in early August, as well as the summer stock market rout—suggests a significant rebound in light vehicle sales is unlikely in the coming months. However, sales activity may not be as negative as current media reports suggest, according to IHS.
Ford survey in Europe finds SUVs highly desired by Millenials; projected acceleration of SUV boom
September 08, 2015
A new survey sponsored by Ford Motor Company in Europe found that SUVs are highly desired by Millennials (ages 17-34), suggesting that Europe’s SUV boom is poised to accelerate as the generation reaches prime new-car-buying age.
Ford is showing the European-specification Ford Edge large SUV for the first time at Frankfurt Motor Show next week. Starting with the launch of the Edge early next year, Ford plans to introduce five new vehicles in the next three years that will compete in the SUV and crossover space. In addition Ford will introduce updated versions of the EcoSport small SUV and Kuga mid-sized SUV this year. As a result, Ford is targeting sales of 200,000 SUVs in Europe by 2016—a 200% increase compared with 2013.
Ford Car Buying Trends 2015 shows increasing demand for semi-autonomous driving technologies in Europe
August 26, 2015
European drivers are showing an increasing appetite for semi-autonomous driving technologies, according to a new Ford Motor Company study on buying trends in Europe. Ford Car Buying Trends 2015, a study of new car buying habits in 22 countries across Europe, highlights regional trends and national differences.
The study shows significant increases in the number of cars with technologies that help drivers to park, avoid collisions, and maintain set speeds and distances from vehicles ahead. Among the results:
Tesla posts record deliveries in Q2; hedges a bit on full year outloook
August 06, 2015
Tesla Motors delivered 11,532 vehicles in the second quarter of 2015, and produced a record 12,807 vehicles, exceeding plan (12,500 units) while improving efficiency, according to the company’s quarterly letter to shareholders. This represents a 15% sequential increase in production and a 46% increase from a year ago. Total GAAP revenue was $955 million (+24% year-on-year) for the quarter, while non-GAAP revenue was $1.20 billion (+40%). Net GAAP loss was $184 million (almost triple the $62-million loss in Q2 2014); non-GAAP net loss was $60.2 million (an almost 4x increase). Total Q2 gross margin was 22.3% on a GAAP basis and 23.4% on a non-GAAP basis.
Globally, Model S orders increased following the launch of 85D (earlier post) and 70D (earlier post). In the US, Q2 Model S orders grew almost 30% year-over-year. In Europe, Q2 Model S orders grew more than 50% year-over-year, despite two price increases in the past six months. In Asia, Q2 Model S orders nearly doubled from last quarter, helped by the initial success of a revised China strategy. Encouraged by this improvement, Tesla is increasing its investments in China by planning to grow this year from one to five retail stores located in high foot traffic areas.
Total alternative fuel vehicle reg in Europe up 17.4% in Q2 2015, EVs up 53%; EVs up 78.4% for H1
August 03, 2015
In the second quarter of 2015, total alternative fuel vehicle registrations in the EU increased (+17.4%), totalling 143,595, according to figures from the ACEA. Of these, electric vehicle (EV) registrations—Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) + Plug‐in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) + Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs)—significantly grew (+53.0%), rising from 18,024 units in Q2 2014 to 27,575 units in Q2 2015.
Demand for new hybrid vehicles (HEV) also increased (+22.6%), totalling 53,443 units. 62,577 new passenger cars in the second quarter (+3.0%) were powered by propane and natural gas.
ICCT study assesses EV promotion and uptake in top 25 metropolitan areas in US
July 30, 2015
A new study by a team at the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) has found that the top metropolitan markets in the US for electric vehicles tend to be characterized by a combination of relatively progressive promotional activities; more extensive charging infrastructure per capita; greater consumer incentives; and a broader range of available models.
The newly published white paper—Assessment of Leading Electric Vehicle Promotion Activities in United States Cities, surveys actions being taken by state and local governments and public utilities to facilitate electric vehicle deployment in the 25 most populous US metropolitan areas, which together represent more than 42% of the population; 46% of auto sales; 67% of new electric vehicle registrations; and 53% of the public electric vehicle charging infrastructure in the US as of 2014.
ICCT: ongoing cost reductions in full- and mild-hybrid systems could bring them into consumer mainstream by 2025
July 24, 2015
According to a new technology briefing paper on hybrid system technologies by John German at the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), the costs of full-function hybrid systems are likely to drop to half the cost of their 2010 counterparts before 2025.
Combined with the development of mild-hybrid systems (belt-alternator or 48-volt system)s—which will likely provide one-half to two-thirds the fuel-efficiency benefits of full-function hybrids at less than half the cost—these levels of cost reductions could put both those technologies into the consumer mainstream by 2025, at least from a cost of technology point of view, German suggests.
SFU researchers find promise for plug-in vehicles in Canada, but need for increased supply and policy support
July 16, 2015
New work by a team at Simon Fraser University (SFU) in Canada has found that more than one-third of Canadian buyers want a plug-in vehicle (PEV), with the majority of those (89—93%) wanting a plug-in hybrid rather than a pure electric vehicle. However, less than 1% of vehicle sales in Canada are electric because of low consumer awareness and limited vehicle choice.
With the current supply of PEVs in Canada (7 models), the future PEV new market share is not likely to exceed 4—5% by 2030, according to the report; increasing supply (to 56 models) could increase market share to over 20% by 2030.
Navigant forecasts global annual sales of LDVs of 122.6M by 2035, up 38% from 2015
July 06, 2015
In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts global annual sales of light duty vehicles will reach 122.6 million by 2035, up 38% from a projected 88.8 million this year, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6%. Navigant Research expects the number of LDVs in use on roads worldwide to grow by 57.1% from 2015 to 2035 to almost 1.9 billion units.
Navigant expects sales of conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will fall significantly over the forecast period, experiencing a CAGR of -6.6%. As a result, the share of vehicles in use that are conventional ICE vehicles will fall from more than 91% in 2015 to under 40% by 2035. Navigant expects ICE vehicles will be replaced by start-stop vehicles (SSVs), which will grow from representing more than 4% of vehicles in use in 2015 to nearly 49% in 2035. Hybrids (HEVs) are expected to account for nearly 3%, while PHEVs (plug-in hybrids), BEVs (battery-electric vehicles), NGVs (natural gas vehicles), PAGVs (propane autogas vehicles), and FCV (fuel cell vehicles) s together are projected to add up to more than 9% of the LDVs in use in 2035.