It’s been a week of contradictory statements about the capabilities of OPEC. What makes it worse: the contradictory statements came from within OPEC, especially from the mouth of the president (right). Here’s a quick timeline.

3 August 2004, OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro:

“The oil price is very high, it is crazy. There is no additional supply. Minister Naimi has said Saudi Arabia can increase production, but they cannot do it immediately.”

4 August 2004, OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro:

“In this regard, OPEC continues to hold, at present, a spare production capacity of around one million-1.5 million b/d, which would allow for an immediate additional increase in production,” he said in the statement, adding that the cartel is committed to “a timely response to the supply needs of the market.”

6 August 2004, OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro:

“The (daily) total production of Opec at the moment reaches 30 mbpd, consisting of a quota of 26 million, 2m from Iraq and 2m others from Opec’s overproduction in the field. We are ready to add another 1.5 million barrels a day but will discuss it first during the next meeting in Vienna,”

10 August 2004, Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez:

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reached its maximum production capacity. Ramirez said the group’s 11 member countries have no immediate way to respond to increased oil demands.

11 August 2004, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi

The kingdom is well prepared to meet all the requirements of the international oil companies if they need additional volumes, relying on its surplus production capacity of more than 1.3 million barrels daily, which could be used immediately if required

11 August 2004, International Energy Agency:

OPEC crude supply averaged 29.1 million barrels per day in July, including 2.0 million barrels per day in Iraq. Statements by OPEC president Purnomo Yusgiantoro have been contradictory and confusing and that data was subject to a wide margin of uncertainty.

The only statement in this list that I believe is that final one from the IEA. Is this any way to run a global energy economy?

But note that one point of agreement is the inclusion of 2 mb/d from Iraq. And that, as recent events show, is highly unreliable.