A Very Disappointing Dry Hole
Conservation vs. Consumption: France vs. US

RMI: Winning the Oil Endgame

Amory Lovins and his team at the Rocky Mountain Institute recently published their strategy for ending US oil dependence, Winning the Oil Endgame. (Thanks, John!)

It’s been covered extensively, a condensed version of the executive summary ran in the current Fortune magazine, and I don’t need to add to that. As just a quick summary, they recommend a four-path approach to cutting US oil use in half:

  • Doubling the efficiency of using oil.

  • Applying creative business models and public policies to speed the profitable adoption of superefficent light vehicles, heavy trucks, and airplanes.

  • Creating a major domestic biofuels industry to handle another one-fourth of U.S. oil needs. [More on biofuels in some upcoming posts.]

  • Using well established, highly profitable efficiency techniques to save half the projected 2025 use of natural gas, making it again abundant and affordable, then substitute part of the saved gas for oil.

As with any comprehensive approach, not everyone will agree with everything proposed. What we should not disagree with is this:

Lastly, we, the people, must play a role—a big role—because our individual choices guide the markets, enforce accountability, and create social innovation.

Our energy future is choice, not fate. Oil dependence is a problem we need no longer have—and it’s cheaper not to. U.S. oil dependence can be eliminated by proven and attractive technologies that create wealth, enhance choice, and strengthen common security. This could be achieved only about as far in the future as the 1973 Arab oil embargo is in the past. When the U.S. last paid attention to oil, in 1977–85, it cut its oil use 17% while GDP grew 27%. Oil imports fell 50%, and imports from the Persian Gulf by 87%, in just eight years. That exercise of dominant market power—from the demand side—broke OPEC’s ability to set world oil prices for a decade. Today we can rerun that play, only better. The obstacles are less important than the opportunities if we replace ignorance with insight, inattention with foresight, and inaction with mobilization. American business can lead the nation and the world into the post-petroleum era, a vibrant economy, and lasting security—if we just realize that we are the people we have been waiting for.

Comments

U.S. Citizen

> Doubling the efficiency of using oil.

This will not make much difference in the long run. It may delay oil supply peaking for a short time, but that all.

> Applying creative business models and public policies to speed the profitable adoption of superefficent light vehicles, heavy trucks, and airplanes.

Same limited effect as above.

> Creating a major domestic biofuels industry to handle another one-fourth of U.S. oil needs.

It takes almost as much energy to produce biofuel as you get out of it. So this idea won't solve anything.

> Using well established, highly profitable efficiency techniques to save half the projected 2025 use of natural gas, making it again abundant and affordable, then substitute part of the saved gas for oil.

More wishful thinking.

The _only_ thing that may save the next generation is MASSIVE reorganization of cities, transportation, homes, jobs, and people's way of life. HUGE decreases in the amount of energy used per person will have to occur on the order of 1/50 of what we now are accustomed to. And guess what, it will never happen until it will be too late!

Brent Scott

Even if we converted to hydrogen tommorow, the highways would still be at a stand still. I have developed a system to keep traffic flowing. All I ask is to be given credit for it's innovation and to be a part of its implementation. What is the cost to society in time lost, death, injury, property damage, and an incressing anger at our inability to function in peaceful and coorprative ways?

Brent Scott

Even if we converted to hydrogen tomorrow, the highways would still be at a stand still. I have developed a system to keep traffic flowing. All I ask is to be given credit for it's innovation and to be a part of its implementation. What is the cost to society in time lost, death, injury, property damage, and an increasing anger at our inability to function in peaceful and corporative ways?

biardabrisome


All I ask is a chance to prove that money can't make me happy.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://xanga.com/faustinovelasquezxg

arrespill

I'm new here, just wanted to say hello and introduce myself.

The comments to this entry are closed.