After reading the umpteenth story about increases in reserves from certain OPEC countries, I decided to plot the history of OPEC reserves from 1980 on.

In the mid 1980s, OPEC policy changed to calculate each country’s share of the overall production quota based on reserves as well as production capacity. In other words, the more reserves you posted, the more oil you could sell.

In an amazing coincidence, identified by Colin Campbell (now of ASPO), reserves in most OPEC countries showed a phenomenal increase in a very short period of time concentrated around that change in policy, a period of expansion unmatched either before or after.

Whether reflective of geologic or “political” reserves, those sudden increases are now factored into plans and policies—and estimates of the timing of peak production.