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IEA Eases Estimate of Growth in Demand Growth; Demand Still Slightly Outweighs Supply

In its current Oil Market Report, the IEA trimmed its forecast of increases in global oil demand by 50,000 barrels per day from the 84.3 mbpd estimated last month. This is the first such reduction is demand growth in four months.

The IEA noted that cold weather increased year-on-year demand in the OECD by 1.28 mbpd, but that was partly offset by apparent lower demand in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Chinese growth in demand slowed to 5.4% in January and February, according to the IEA, below its 20.8% growth seen last year.

Although IEA increased its estimate of world oil supply by 365 kbpd from last month, it did so after revising the February base lower. The result is a supply estimate of 84.2 mbpd. This still leaves supply and demand basically even, if not slightly in deficit.

In other words, there still is no supply margin.

Iea_mar05_supplydemand Iea_mar05_thegap


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