In its current Oil Market Report released today, the IEA kept its estimate of demand growth for the full year at the 84.3 million barrels per day (mbpd) forecast last month.
However, the agency raised its estimate of global demand in the second half of year, increasing to 86.4 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter—up 200,000 barrels (200 kbpd) from the estimate a month ago. The agency revised down its estimate of demand growth for the second quarter due to greater slowing of Chinese demand than seen last month.
To meet the year-end increase in demand, OPEC would have to pump 29.6 mbpd in the last months of year, 300 kbpd a day more than predicted last month. This level of output, however, is less than last year’s Q4 call on OPEC of 29.8 mbpd.
The IEA cites continued slowing of demand growth in China and Europe, but notes that this is counterbalanced by relative strength in North America and the OECD Pacific.
World oil output rose by 260 kbpd per day in May to 84.6 mbpd. This resulted from higher Venezuelan syncrude output and increases from the FSU, Asia and North America.