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Toyota on Plug-In Hybrids

Via calcars-news comes an email from the Group Vice President of Corporate Communications, Toyota Motor sales, in a response to the Yahoo Gridable Hybrids group.

The Toyota stance boils down to two points: (a) an electric vehicle isn’t cleaner than a gasoline vehicle on the national grid and (b) batteries require significant further development. The text of the email follows.

Thank you for your communication regarding plug-in hybrids. Like you, we at Toyota are very interested in this technology. It is something we are studying for the future as one avenue to adding diversity to the transportation energy mix. Plug-in hybrids can further reduce petroleum consumption, improve fuel economy, possibly ease our dependence on foreign oil and potentially lower greenhouse gas emissions.

That said, we also recognize that there are limitations to plug-in hybrids. As you well know, the true environmental impact of a plug-in depends on the source of the electrical charge. Coal-burning power plants do not lessen the greenhouse gas production and criteria pollutants increase. Secondly, to create a vehicle that meets consumers’ needs, a breakthrough in battery technology in regard to capacity, durability and cost, is necessary. Outside experts predict this isn’t likely to happen this decade.

In the meantime, we are strongly committed to our hybrid technology which offers a great balance of reduced petroleum consumption, improved fuel economy, cleanest criteria pollutants and driving pleasure at a price people can afford. We have such confidence in hybrids’ durability and reliability that Toyota is looking to increase the number of gas-electric hybrids on the road. We have 10 hybrids under development globally now and by early next decade it's conceivable that 25 percent of the vehicles we sell here in the United States will have hybrid powertrains.

Hybrid technology, like the Hybrid Synergy Drive system in our Prius, is taking on a new role in car culture. While hot rodders used to soup up their engines and pour on the chrome, they’re now tinkering with computers to maximize their fuel mileage. It’s a whole new passion for auto enthusiasts.

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Comments

Big Al

What plugins need is an on the fly charging system. Maybe an inductive hookup in the main street to top off the batteries, or an overhead trolly system like the trollybuses use.

Stensonm

Be nice to put in a few quarters for a solar charger at the local mall, with the plus of parking your car in the shade. Or parking your car on the roof of a parking garage. Either way a nice trickle charge.

paul

The envirnmental reason from toyota is not accurate from what I have read. And there doesn't seem to need to be a breakthrough in technology since people are doing it already with many different types of batteries. So that leaves one part of the reason toyota said... and that is cost. It always boils down to the almight dollar. Can toyota make money doing it?

You better believe they are trying to figure out a way. This press release from toyota above is just what toyota is saying to the public. Behind the scenes I bet they are working on it.

It will be interesting to see how the Energy CS conversion does and the for-profit venture that Cal Cars is working on.

I predict PHEV available at a reasonable price within 3 - 4 years.

Sam

I guess they didn't read about the Solar Prius reported on here at GCG.

Joseph Willemssen

Sourcing from grid power produces less CO2, but more NOx. It also creates emissions of SOx, mercury, etc. Of course, that's based on the national grid mix of 50 coal, 18 natural gas, 20 nuke, 7 hydro, 0.7 solar/wind/geothermal, 4 other. Emissions all depend on what you're using to source electricity to power the plug-in hybrid.

There's also ground-level ozone effects from mobile sources to consider.

As for the "solar Prius" reported on earlier, that design will have a negligible effect on gasoline consumption, if any - saving at most an average of 1 gallon of gasoline per month.

Art

A rooftop solar photovoltiac system is a perfect marriage of techologies with the Plug-in Hybrid. Together, they initiate an invaluable homepower supply in the event of an emergency and utility price-gouging. It gives households an education in electricity consumption and conservation.

A household with this electricity supply has an economic incentive to drive shorter distances and patronize local economies, rather than drive longer distances for all needs and purposes. When local economies are thus strengthened, more needs can be met without having to drive.

It is discouraging that these greater ramifications of the Plug-in Hybrid technology aren't more widely publicized. Hey! Get a clue! We drive too much, too far, for too many purposes, at too high cost and impact. Comprende? The hydrogen fuel cell car is a fraud!!

Shirley E

Toyota's citing of an environmental reason for not pursuing a plug-in hybrid seems a trifle disingenuous on the one hand when they're stuffing V-8s into their new pickups with the other. It's all about money, pure and simple.

Let's say we get serious about controlling carbon dioxide emissions in the future. It will be MUCH easier to control these (e.g., through sequestration) at a large coal plant than it will be from 15 million V-8 Toyota pickups. Cheaper, too. Plus there's no reason we HAVE to rely on coal anyway. Except for money in someone's pocket.

These are two separate issues: 1) we need to reduce our dependence on foreign oil and 2) we need to reduce emissions from our electric utility plants. They should (must) be treated separately. Toyota's saying that they can't do #1 because of #2 is just a stalling tactic. Finger-pointing.

I completely agree with them that battery breakthroughs are still needed, but these seem much nearer at hand than the multitude of breakthroughs needed in hydrogen and fuel cells. So why isn't there a Presidential Battery Initiative?

In the end, I agree with Paul above. The fact that they've even started talking about this publicly means we'll probably be seeing something on the market in the near term. There will be huge profits to the companies that get these on the market first while the others are stuck playing catch-up (hmm, sound familiar?).

stomv

I think Toyota is intentionally putting the cart before the horse with their coal-fired argument.

Know what percent of California power comes from coal? Less than 1%. Most of their power is natural gas fired. 1 in 9 Americans live in California. I take issue with Mr. Williamson's suggestion that PEHV's would be powered on 50% coal. Using the national average doesn't make sense because the amount of power generated by coal varies regionally by a tremendous amount.

Check out this map I made, and hover your cursor over Percent Oil + Coal Elec Gen. Notice that the entire West coast plus a chunk of the Northeast are staying away from the black stuff, replacing it with natural gas and nuclear, and to a lesser extent, wind, solar, and biomass.

I haven't seen a 50 state map of where the Prius is sold, but I'm willing to bet that these two maps are correlated -- that is, I'd bet there are lots of Prius' sold on the West coast and the Northeast. After all, if the community values their air and water enough to resist coal and oil power plants, they also have the personal virtue of environmentalism running rampant. Therefore, while the national electric grid may be supplied by 50% coal, the PEHV's would be drawing from much cleaner sources, and in states committed to growing their clean sources.

Joseph Willemssen

"Mr. Williamson's suggestion that PEHV's would be powered on 50% coal. Using the national average doesn't make sense because the amount of power generated by coal varies regionally by a tremendous amount."

I simply pointed out the national grid mix, since most people don't know how it breaks down. You'll notice I also said, "Emissions all depend on what you're using to source electricity to power the plug-in hybrid" - so I'm not clear why you're taking issue with what I said.

With respect to California specifically, the state requires power providers to publish "Power Content Labels" which show the mix of sources of a given company's electricity compared to the "California Power Mix", which "reflects the energy resource mix for electricity consumed in California net of electricity sold to consumers as specific purchases. If your ESP is purchasing power from the Power Exchange or another large exchange, and cannot identify which generator is generating the power it sells you, your ESP will claim an energy resource mix for its electricity product that is identical to the California Power Mix."

http://www.energy.ca.gov/consumer/power_content_label.html#powermix

As of 2004 (the most current data published), the California Power Mix is as follows:
Natural Gas 45
Coal 29
Large hydro 20
Eligible renewables 4
Nuke 2

http://www.energy.ca.gov/2005publications/CEC-300-2005-004/CEC-300-2005-004.PDF

("Eligible renewables" are biomass & waste, geothermal, small hydroelectric, solar, and wind.)

The above PDF file is actually pretty educational and even goes beyond the "California Power Mix" (which is net generation) and includes figures on gross generation, and even explains why the mix changes from year to year because of things like rain or drought.

Either way, to say that "less than 1%" of power in California comes from coal is grossly inaccurate. I'd be interested to see how you arrived at that number.

paul

So who is going to step up and send all these comments to toyota?

Shirley E

Toyota knows all this stuff already. It's all of US that need to be educated.

Curtis Muhlestein

I understand that generating electricity with coal creates pollution, but if every parking lot was covered with solar cells, like the one in San Diego, CA, this problem would be mute. See the following article at: http://global.kyocera.com/news/2005/0602.html

Sam

WOw I was just reading my current Kalifornistan PG&E report:
Method This year Last year
Eligable Renewables 13% 4%
>Biomass & waste 5% 0%
>Geothermal 3% 3%
>Small Hydro 4% 1%
>Solar 0% 0%
>Wind 1% <1%
Coal 3% 29%
Large Hydro 18% 20%
Nat. Gas 43% 45%
Nuclear 23% 2%
Other <1% 0%
big changes...and considering this state is proobably the single biggest market for the Prius, the exec is even wronger. 8/

And yeah Plug-Ins plus Solar-Parking lots would be a perfect match.

Joseph Willemssen

Sam, I think the first column of data is the emissions profile for the electricity provided to you by your specific utility. You might want to check the "label" a little more closely to see if that's the case.

An example:
http://www.energy.ca.gov/consumer/label.gif

It would be pretty incredible if the state as a whole went from 29 coal to 3 coal in just a year. In any case, that mix you're mentioning pulls a lot from nuke and burning biomass.

Who is your electricity provider?

Joseph Willemssen

Whoops - sorry. You said PG&E, right? I missed that.

So, right - it's PG&E's mix you're describing, not California as a whole.

http://www.pge.com/customer_service/bill_inserts/2005/july.html

Sam

yeah the first 'column' is 'projected' by PG&E (Pacific Gas & Electric) on my Power Content Label. Then this years numbers to now. Followed by last year. We shall see how it changes...though the year is mostly over.

Mike

Another datapoint. The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) just announced that it entered into two long-term purchase agreements to buy 81,843 megawatt-hours from facilities that use landfill gas-to-energy (LFGTE) technology.

LADWP has adopted a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) that targets the amount of energy provided from renewable power sources to 20% of its energy sales to retail customers by 2017, with an interim goal of 13% by 2010. The LFGTE contracts are the first in that program.

stomv

Joseph:

I have a pdf document that I grabbed from a gov't site (IIRC) in March of 2005 with 1999 numbers. Unfortunately I can't find its source online, nor does the pdf have a webpage or even an agency name on it. I'd be happy to email it to you if you'd like.

It's claims for California:
1% Coal
1% Oil
46% Gas
18% Nuclear
22% Hydro
12% Other

8375 trillion BTU total energy use.

I wasn't picking on your facts in any stretch, more the impression that it leaves. The fact remains that useage of coal to generate electricity varies widely from region to region, as does the percentage of miles driven by hybrid vehicles. It wouldn't suprise me if the aggregate generation by owner's elec co as a function of hybrid-miles by driven is close to 20% coal than 50% coal.

The only other explaination I can come up with for the discrepency is that "my number" is electricity generation in California, whereas "your number" is electricity generation used by Californians. If CA is importing a bunch of coal-fire-generated electricity, it might account for that discrepency, or at least some of it.

Anonymous Toyota Worker

I work at Toyota HQ in Torrance, and while I agree with much of his statement, that paragraph touting the limitations to PHEVs is rather embarrassing to me.

In regards to coal power plants being more polluting, I agree, but it's not Toyota's responsibility to make public policy about how electricity is generated. More and more renewable utility-scale power plants are being brought online, such Southern California Edison's announcement of the Sterling Systems CSP plant that will be built near Victorville, CA.

Second, no breakthrough in battery technology is needed to make significant improvements to fuel consumption and pollution output of Toyota Hybrid Vehicles. Just offer a plug-in option with, for instance, Valence Saphion batteries instead of Ovonic NiMH. If the first 20 miles of a daily commute are "petroleum free", half of all commuters will never have to fill their tank.

The fact is, we're facing a petroleum crisis. By shifting the locomotive energy burden from petroleum to any number of electrical generating technologies, we can avert, or at least postpone that crisis until developing technologies can mature. Solar and Wind are climbing in economies of scale, and are nearly approaching cost/performance ratios similar to natural gas, nuclear, and coal.

Mr. Miller, let the public policy folks deal with how electricity will be generated. Just give us the option to use less petroleum. That's all we ask.

sampo

"breakthrough in battery technology"...yeah and i have this bridge over here that i would be willing to part with at a very reasonable price!

Why do people think that battery technology has somewhere to go beyond minor and incremental advances! Batteries have been used for hundreds of years now and they have been tinkered with and evolved to a great degree already. every advance is only rewarded with small incremental returns at this point. this is why people are trying to make fuel cells work better. blaming the battery technology is just plain poppycock.

What needs to be examined is the other side of the equation...adapting our expectations of what we want from the vehicle in terms of acceleration rates, curb weight, top speeds, etc etc will be much much easier than finding a battery with performance variables that are orders of magnitude better than those we have today. An order of magnitude of performance enhancement hasn't been seen in battery technology in 50 years, what makes anyone think we will magically make it happen in the next 10??!?!?

The irony is, by doing that same sort of expectations mitigation, we could probably make gasoline powered cars that are an order of magnitude more efficient...they just wouldn't be the same type of machine we are accustomed to....they would be one or two seaters with no features that had a top speed of 20 mph and acceleration similar to a lethargic dung beetle.

trying to fit our alternatives into the current vehicular expectations regime leaves us hamstrung before we are able to walk.

stomv

they would be one or two seaters with no features that had a top speed of 20 mph and acceleration similar to a lethargic dung beetle.

That was invented over 100 years ago, and I've got one. It's called a bicycle. Mine does have features though, including a blinking white light in the front, a nifty two tone bell, and a milk crate boot!

Tman

Lets not all forget the fact that the average horsepower per car increasing at an alarming rate. Automakers and government policy makers keep putting out rethoric about environment and oil independence, but they fail to address the outragious HP increase in today's cars.

I think we really need another 70's style oil comotion before we wake up. Its true that engines are getting more and more efficient, but all that efficiency goes towards producing more power. If trucks were limited to about 220hp, then manufacturers would find ways to engineer lighter cars in order to gain more performance. Now there're no rules guiding them. Look at the crop of 4L engines coming as standard on Pickups from the japanese makers.

Even toyota is not as green as the public perserves. I personally am not a fan of plug-in hybrids for specific reasons, but I do believe we should have a wealth of alternatives for sustainable development.

Bob

Toyotas response is as dumb as the VP from GM
stating he see's no reason to make a compact hybrid.
GM wishes they had a hybrid on the market now with
show rooms empty and prius orders over a 6 month
back log.
What is up with these guys?
Bob

Dave

Toyota's argument about not wanting to increase emissions from coal-fired power plants is a bit disingenuous for another reason that I don't think has been mentioned yet. Assuming that owners would charge their cars only at night when the electricity is cheap, then there will be no extra emissions from coal-fired plants. Almost every coal plants never shuts down; they run all night long, though at a smaller clip. Since the electricity and emissions are being created anyway, why not actually put some of it to good use?

In fact, there may be a net decrease in overall emissions of pollutants like CO2 b/c the engines running in electric mode will replace their gasoline counterparts; thus, overall vehicle emissions would be reduced. No clue on numbers here, but it's something to consider.

However, this argument really only goes for coal-fired plants. Natural gas turbines can come on and off line in a matter of minutes and thus can be shut down during off-peak hours during the night.

Hal

Toyota is probably waiting to see how the aftermarket works out for plug-in conversions. If a lot of people buy these things then Toyota can see that it would make economic sense to offer them. If they only sell a few hundred to the Hollywood tree-hugger crowd then Toyota will stay out of the market.

I personally don't think they're going to sell very many, probably less than 1000 in the first few years, but we'll see.

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