|Total US Petroleum Consumption. Click to enlarge.|
Revised numbers in the DOE’s Energy Information Administration’s January Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) indicate a drop in total US Oil Consumption in 2005 of 0.4% from 20.73 million barrels per day in 2004 to 20.65 million barrels per day in 2005.
Earlier data, published in the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 Early Release and weekly reports had shown an increase in total consumption for the year. (Earlier post.)
Part of the discrepancy comes from the variety of sources on which different reports are based, according to the EIA.
Each category of data and report uses different survey methodology. The weekly surveys are samples with a limited number of respondents and the data, due to quick turn around, are the most prone to error, according to the EIA. They also most often underestimate petroleum volumes.
The monthly surveys are based on all participants in the market, and the respondents have legal obligations to report the data. Accordingly, the quality of this data is much higher.
Annual data, represented in the Petroleum Supply Annual and the Annual Energy Review, reflect the highest level of accuracy and incorporate all refineries’ annual submissions and any revisions to monthly data.
The early release of the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 was based on the September STEO—i.e., before Katrina and Rita. The January STEO reflects revisions based on those impacts (among other things).
|Demand for petroleum for gasoline, jet fuel and distillate fuel oil continues to rise. Click to enlarge.|
So with that in mind, turning to the January Short Term Energy Outlook (Table A5) reveals that while total oil consumption in the US dropped 0.4% in 2005 to 20.65 mbpd, consumption of petroleum for gasoline and distillate fuel oil increased 1% to a combined 13.26 mbpd.
Gasoline demand alone accounts for 44% of petroleum consumption. Gasoline demand rose from 9.11 mbpd in 2004 to 9.14 mbpd in 2005, with a projected rise to 9.45 mbpd by 2007.
We’ll check in on this again in February with the publication of the final Annual Energy Outlook 2006.