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Bosch: US Diesel Market Will Reach 15% in Next 10 Years

At a clean diesel event in California, Robert Bosch Corporation predicted that the US market for light diesel vehicles will reach 15 percent over the next 10 years.

Advantages offered by today’s diesel passenger vehicles, in comparison to conventional gasoline vehicles, include an average increase in fuel economy of 30%; a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions by up to 25%; and an increase in torque of up to 50%.

Bosch will support this growth through continuing to provide advanced diesel engine technology, such as fuel injection and aftertreatment and engine management systems.

Diesel gives consumers the fuel economy and performance they desire. At the same time, diesel provides the means to decrease carbon dioxide emissions and reduce dependency on foreign oil—issues of particular importance in the California market.

—John Moulton, president, powertrain division, Robert Bosch Corporation

According to a model developed by the US Department of Energy, if diesel vehicles make up 30% of the US market share by 2020, the US could reduce its consumption by 350,000 barrels of oil a day (about 1.7%).

Seventeen diesel vehicle models are currently offered for sale in the US today, including entry-level cars, SUVs and pick-up trucks, a 55% increase in availability since 2000.

US demand for diesel passenger vehicles is expected to grow stronger after Tier 2 Bin 5 emissions standards take effect next year. Diesel passenger vehicles will meet the new standards through a combination of ultra-low sulfur fuel (available nationwide in October) as well as advanced fuel injection and aftertreatment technologies.

Bosch recently announced plans to launch dosing units and control concepts for selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems in 2008. These systems will assist in removing NOx emissions, enabling diesel vehicles to meet the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Tier 2 Bin 5 emissions standards.



New Diesels are still-born in the US because:
( I say this with a tear in my eye because I owned a diesel car and a van for 15 years)
Bad public image, lack of pumps
Extra fuel price over gas
Extra purchase cost for vehicle
Maintainance always cost more (Oil changes!injecton pumps!)
Yeah, I know that more than half of new car sales in Europe for 2006 will be diesels.
One good thing about diesel fuel; Can't make a Molotov cocktail with it!


Injection pumps? You're thinking of old technology mechanical fuel injection. Common rail systems are all electronic.

Modern Common Rail diesels don't bear much comparison to their older mechanically injected forebears.

Lack of pumps? There's a lot more of them than there are Hydrogen ones.....


Also, the price of diesel could level off, and eventually be less than gasoline. It's all about economies of scale. Right now, refineries have cut back on diesel production to focus more on gasoline, as a result of Rita and Katrina.


Hold on there with the higher maintenance costs comment. Maybe with an older vehicle, but my VW TDI, oil changes are every 10,000 miles. No spark plugs. Longer interval for tranny fluid change. Most of this is due to the lower RPMs of a diesel. Injectors/IP should last forever.

Pumps have not been a problem for me in the North East.

Diesel fuel is usually cheaper than regular in the summer. Diesel is now only 15% more expensive than regular in my area, and it is the height of home heating season. Since the average diesel passenger vehicle gets 30% better mileage than a gasser, I'm still saving a good amount at the pump.

All of that aside, I agree that the typical American thinks of diesels as "dirty". I am certain this will change very quickly with the biodiesel hype. In fact, I predict it will be as "chic" to own a new diesel car and burn biodiesel as buying a Prius is now.


"Also, the price of diesel could level off, and eventually be less than gasoline. It's all about economies of scale. Right now, refineries have cut back on diesel production to focus more on gasoline, as a result of Rita and Katrina."

I have another possible reason for higher diesel prices.
Diesel market is relatively flat on demand side. (Truck are not going to stop because of higher diesel prices)
While gasoline market have sloped demand side. People can easily decrese their weekend excursions if prices rise.
So by easy economy rule, oil companies have higher prices for diesel.
There is also few other things:
-they export diesel to europe because they can sell it for more there due to diesel shortage in europe.
- switch to ultra low sulfur diesel is another good reason to raise prices.


One other reason to expect Diesel prices to stay high & possibly go higher here in the U.S. is that we're going to institute new Low Sulfur clean diesel fuel standards over this current year (if memory serves).

Somehow I think the price will go up even further with that...

The price of diesel here in the U.S. is high enough now ($0.50/gallon in my area - before this change) that the extra efficiency of diesels is eaten by the cost of the fuel. Until that changes diesels aren't going to be big sellers here in the U.S..


just gimmee my MINI One-D...or a real Turbo-charged Diesel MINI Cooper.



You said it, Scott! And while making the transition, flip the steering wheel to the other side and turn it into a hybrid (preferably a plug-in), and I will be ready to MOTOR...


Up here in New England, diesel fuel has been considerably more expensive than gasoline for quite a while -- 25% to 35%, on the whole. Just today, my local filling station was selling regular gas for about $2.40 per gallon, while diesel was $3.20. And due to a mild winter, heating demand here has been relatively low, keeping energy demand down. I don't think the price difference is due to winter-only increased heating-oil demands.

I agree that combination of European and world demand, residual Katrina aftereffects, and increased costs associated with new low-sulfur standards are probably behind this. While it is true that diesel demand is relatively inelastic (weekend vacationers are more likely than truckers to curtail their driving), gasoline demand is really not that much more elastic. Most of it gets consumed on daily commutes to work, or while running errands and the like, and these activities are not likely to be given up too easily.

Demand inelasticies have to be matched with supply inelasticities (and process-cost increases) for prices to be forced up any great amount, and those supply inelasticities are caused by the factors mentioned before: world demand, refinery bottlenecks (Katrina) and the increased cost of producing low-sulfur fuel. I don't know the relative weights of each of these factors, by my gut feeling is that high diesel fuel prices are here to stay.

Only a signficant change in tax policy (and possibly an abandonment of low-sulfur rules, which is probably not a good idea) could change the relative prices of gasoline and diesel fuel, making the 30% higher fuel efficiency of the diesel engine a decisive cost-savings.

The bottom line is that small diesels are not likely to gain too much market share in the United States over the next 5-10 years. Small diesels are also somewhat noisier than gasoline or hybrid cars -- even the newer German diesels which I see on the road here from time to time.


You're forgetting that a gallon of diesel contains more energy than a gallon of petrol (gas), you need to factor this into the price comparison.


I have been waiting for California to relegalize the sale of new diesel vehicles. We currently can not buy new diesels, (except for a few large trucks) and diesel fuel is increasingly hard to find. Is anyone aware of when this situation might change?
I regularly ask my local VW dealer when Ca will get TDIs again. Last year they said 2006, now they are saying 2007...


In response to Ruaraidh's comment, the basic point of my submission was a bottom-line analysis: 30% more miles for 30% more dollars is basically a wash. The relative energy content of the two fuels is not directly important to me; if that is what makes a diesel car get 30% more miles to the gallon than a gasline car, or if some other physical factor is responsible, it does not really matter.

Other price and total cost of ownership factors might change the economic picture I presented earlier; but I don't have the hard data to make any concrete statements. Do diesel engines last longer? Are they cheaper to lubricate and maintain? Is the rest of the car well-made enough so that the repair and upkeep costs are lower than other cars? Will I keep a diesel car on the road longer than a conventional car, saving me the cost of buying a new car earlier?


I am puzzled at the lack of concern for fuel economy in the U.S. when cost saving and fuel efficient common-rail diesel injection (CDI) engines are used in 80% of the vehicles in Europe! Mercedes even offers an "A" Class with a diesel in Europe! Ford, Volvo, BMW, and all but the Asian Auto manufactures offer diesels but not in the U.S. for cars and SUVs! Mercedes offers only one E-Class CDI model and had planned to release the ML SUV with a diesel two years ago! What happened? Lower sulfur diesel fuel is here now, and biodiesel is coming, diesels offer longer engine life, better fuel mileage, more power, and the technology is here now! What seems to be the problem? Is it political? Are there EPA problems requiring better filtering of particulants which would require large emission filters? I don't know! Hybrids are good but they still use gas and there are problems with battery life and battery replacement costs, and weight. Hydrogen sounds great but it won't be in common use the in U.S. for 30-50 years! So, once again, why aren't there diesels in the U.S. when both American and European Auto Manufactures have these fuel saving vehicles now?! I think that the biggest problem is that these Auto CEO's think they know what the U.S. market wants, but they and their cohorts are typically reactive versus proactive and, therefore, don't really see the hand writing on the walls until someone else points it out to them. By the way, diesel fuel is still cheaper than 93 octane and available at any truck stop!

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