Recent storms have eased the drought situation in many areas of the country, but the rain and snow arrived too late to offset the impacts from months of record dry weather across the Southwest, resulting in the continuing potential for a dangerous fire season.

—Brig. Gen. (ret'd) David Johnson, director of the NOAA National Weather Service

Spring temperature outlook. Click to enlarge. Source: NOAA

The National Interagency Fire Center’s Seasonal Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for February through June 2006 calls for an above normal fire potential for Southern California, the Southwest, Southern Plains to Florida; and a below normal potential in the Northeast.

In the southern Plains, the drought has had a major impact on farmers and ranchers. The lack of rain has dried up many stock ponds and led to abysmal pasture, range and winter wheat crop conditions, especially in Texas and Oklahoma.

Currently, severe to extreme drought extends across the Southwest into the southern Plains and northward into Kansas. The US Drought Monitor gives its highest drought rating, D4 (exceptional), to portions of southern Texas and eastern Oklahoma.

Heavy rains including severe thunderstorms have eased short-term drought in Illinois, Iowa and southward into Arkansas, but ongoing drought concerns may linger.

US Drought Monitor

The US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for dry conditions persisting through June in the Southwest and the southern and central Plains, despite temporary improvement in some areas. Also, drought is expected to expand in Kansas and eastern Colorado. Some drought improvement is predicted for areas in the northern Rockies and northern Plains, as well as the Mississippi Valley and eastern Plains. Drought is expected to continue in North Carolina and possibly expand into portions of the mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

For the nation as a whole, the US Spring Outlook for April through June indicates below-normal precipitation for much of the central and southern Plains, as well as the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Above normal precipitation is favored across the northern Plains and Great Lakes region as well as Hawaii. The remainder of the country, including Alaska, has equal chances of above, near or below normal precipitation.

There is a silver lining in today’s announcement. NOAA’s National Hydrologic Assessment does not indicate a dramatic flooding potential this spring for the contiguous US.

—Gen. Johnson

However, substantial snowpack in the West has produced areas of above average flood risk. Wet fall and near normal winter conditions have primed the Red River of the North, the boundary between North Dakota and Minnesota, for flooding this spring. Also, recent heavy rains across the Ohio Valley region and southern Mississippi have caused flooding on rivers, increasing the risk for future flooding.