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IEA Raises Oil Demand Forecasts

The International Energy Agency has increased its forecasted global demand for oil. Based on receiving detailed 2004 data, the agency lifted the baseline from which it calculates increases in demand by 310,000 barrels per day. The increase came not from China but from the Middle East and other Asian Pacific countries.

For the rest of 2006, the agency revised global demand growth down slightly from 1.49 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 1.47 mb/d. This is a rebound from a hurricane-depressed 1.05 mb/d in 2005, with the recovery weighted towards the second half of 2006. This raises the total demand estimate to 85.1 million barrels per day in 2006.

Global supply in March fell 125 kb/d in March to 84.5 mb/d. OPEC, North American and North Sea production outages outstripped higher non-OECD production. A weaker first half trimmed 35 kb/d from 2006 non-OPEC supply, but new field start-ups still boost this year’s growth to 1.2 mb/d, supplemented by 275 kb/d of OPEC natural gas liquids.

March OPEC supply fell by 215 kb/d to 29.7 mb/d on Nigerian outages and lower Iranian and Iraqi exports. Damage to Iraq’s northern pipeline suggests exports to Ceyhan are unlikely for some time. according to the IEA.

Cold weather and supply outages lifted the 1Q call on OPEC crude and stock change 700 kb/d above OPEC supply, pointing to a drawdown in 1Q global balances.



this should come as a surprise to no one. seems like IEA is wasting its time - who needs a fancy report to know that growing populations and economies need more energy and oil! We need to kick our 'oil addiction.'

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