J.D. Power Automotive Forecasting projects that global demand for diesel light-duty vehicles will nearly double over the next 10 years, increasing from 15 million sales in 2005 to 29 million in 2015.
Although Western Europe has been the key driver in the rapid growth of diesel vehicle demand for the past 10 years, increased demand from consumers in other regions will promote growth during the next decade. The company projects that the diesel share of US light-duty vehicle sales will increase from 3.2% in 2005 to more than 10% by the middle of the next decade.
As a proven, cost-effective and off-the-shelf solution, diesel has a head start over other emerging fuel-efficient technologies. With energy prices at elevated levels and new regulatory pressure to improve light-truck fuel efficiency, a range of fuel-efficient alternatives to the conventional gasoline engine will be required. The United States and Canada are markets with enormous potential for diesel light-vehicle sales.—Alastair Bedwell, senior manager for J.D. Power Automotive Forecasting
Prospects for diesel light-vehicle demand within the key Asian markets remains mixed. South Korea and India are key markets for diesel growth in Asia, as in the potential in China. The Japanese market, however, will remain limited, according to the forecast.
J.D. Power and Associates expects a slowing of growth in the Western Europe diesel car market as some key markets reach saturation. However, demand in Eastern Europe is expected to eclipse that of Western Europe during the forecast period.
While Euro-5 emission limits will not disrupt the diesel market, Euro-6 limits have the potential to erode the financial advantage diesel currently has over competitive technologies. As a result, the company expects diesel share in Western Europe to peak at below 60% of the new-vehicle market.
J.D. Power expects Volkswagen to remain the largest global supplier of diesel-fueled light-duty vehicles, followed by Ford Motor Company. Additionally, Toyota is slated to be the fastest-growing global diesel new-vehicle provider from 2005 through 2015.