Forecast: German Gasoline and Diesel Consumption to Drop Combined 25% by 2025
30 June 2006
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| Forecast German domestic consumption of petroleum fuels. Click to enlarge. |
In its just-released annual forecast to the German petroleum industry, the MWV (the Association of the German Petroleum Industry: Mineralölwirtschaftsverband), estimates that domestic consumption of gasoline and diesel will drop a combined 25.4% from 54.9 million tonnes of fuel consumed in 2004 to 39.6 million tonnes in 2025.
The drop for gasoline is more precipitous, as diesel is steadily gaining marketshare in Germany. From 25 million tonnes in 2004, MWV projects that gasoline consumption will drop 41.9% to 13.6 million tonnes by 2025. Diesel consumption increases from 2004’s 29.9 million tonnes until tipping over after 2010 to drop down to 26 million tonnes by 2025 (-12.5% from 2004).
Driving the forecast decrease in consumption are projected increases in new car fuel efficiency combined with an ongoing shift to diesel, increased usage of biofuels, a shrinking population, and reduced use compelled by high prices. MWV develops its forecast as part of the results of a survey of its membership, which includes German refineries and fueling station operators.
With the decrease in consumption, carbon dioxide emissions from road traffic would fall by 30% to 113 million tonnes a year, according to the MWV.
The decrease in domestic consumption will lead to increased net exports of car fuels from Germany, according to the MWV.
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Is it safe to assume that this projection reflects a broader trend throughout Europe?
Posted by: Mel. | 30 June 2006 at 10:55 AM
Thank you Germany. We'll gladly use up your savings, and then some.
Posted by: Dursun | 30 June 2006 at 10:58 AM
The precipitous drop is predicated on a continuing decline of the German population at present rates. It is doubtful that the country's generous welfare state programs, including socialized pensions and health care for the elderly, can be sustained without a substantial influx of immigrants and a looser labor market. The alternative is deep cuts in social spending, which could led to severe strains - especially in the East.
Europeans generally support the diversification of fuel sources away from Arab oil and Russian gas. They also tend to be fairly concerned about global warming and generally supportive of government programs to curb it - even if the US and China are unwilling to follow suit.
Finally, while most Western Europeans remain willing to support the agricultural sector in their own countries, the enthusiasm for doing so in the new member states plus candidates such as Turkey is decidedly muted. The (pious) hope is that biofuels (esp. biodiesel from rapeseed) will provide farmers with new revenue opportunites and permit an end to perverse subsidies for the overproduction of foodstuffs.
Posted by: Rafael Seidl | 30 June 2006 at 11:34 AM
Dursun.
That's the tragedy. But don't forget China, India, and others. Without all these countries signing up to a global regime, the Germanys of the world get rewarded by having everyone else consume what they would have consumed.
There has to be an oil protocol in conjunction with a more widespread and strict Kyoto protocol.
Those who don't sign up to the protocol should be sanctioned by the those who live up to the protocol.
At some point the German citizen will crack and say, "what's the point"? Why should they conserve when some of the big players in the rest of the world aren't doing their part. Classic tragedy of the commons stuff.
Posted by: t | 30 June 2006 at 11:37 AM
Some of those european govts make sure the citizens won't "crack" and give them little choice with the high fuel taxes.
Posted by: Patrick | 30 June 2006 at 11:47 AM
I think the projections are correct. The declining birthrate in Europe is creating a continent of the elderly. Though good for fuel consumption, it will cause other problems.
Posted by: Jimmy Formosa | 30 June 2006 at 11:49 AM
Come on guys, Are you saying that the Germans will hate themselves for doing the right thing?:
Reducing fuel consumption,
securing a decent final ending for the elderly,
May your parents read your postings and scold you for your lack of maturity.
Posted by: tony chilling | 30 June 2006 at 12:52 PM
Remember the Germans are moving car transportation to CNG - they are well on the way to 500,000 CNG cars by 2010 and at least 2 million by 2020....hence the graphs are a bit misleading as they do not show ths. Why use diesel when you can use clean, quiet, low CO2 CNG?
Posted by: John Baldwin | 30 June 2006 at 01:39 PM
Rafael:
With all my dislike to governmental health care, private one tends to be 2-3 times more expensive (especially for elderly) and not much better then run by government. So from fiscal point of view German system is way cheaper then, say, American.
And yes, Europeans should be concerned about their oil supply, because about 70% of their oil comes from Middle East, notably from Iran. To be honest, situation in Japan/S.Korea is even worse.
Biodiesel can displace a lot of gasoline - for a triple price, but what for? Germans already made great sacrifice in their nation’s health to save fuel (and waste money), and what for? To make oil cheaper for China? No wonder they have to invent such ridiculous BS like global warming to justify this.
I can imagine how Japanese are laughing on Europe: they inspired GHG reduction agreement, Europe went stinky diesel to drive global price of oil lower (most important for Japan – 100% of their oil is imported), and meanwhile they adopted American-style emission standards, effectively suppressing polluting diesel cars on mass scale. And yes, they sell a lot of diesel cars to Europe.
Posted by: Andrey | 30 June 2006 at 06:38 PM
Norwegian gas may do the trick. Add that to energy produced from biodegradable garbage, and biomass waste. The point is better engines and emissions from here on out.
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___On a side note, it looks increasingly likely for a muslim majority Europe by 2060. Decreasing population of idigenous peoples (in this case, decendants of Germanic tribes) will shift the balance of ethnically/nationality based socialeconomic groups. US will have a similar reality with its Latino population, though it may be possible that immigration drops in the next decade if economic growth takes off south of South of the border (from Mexico, Dominican Republic to Peru, Argentina). For you skeptics, this has been done with the Irish, Greeks, Portuguese, and Polish to varying degrees. Some of them came here in the 50's-present on visits as tourists and overstayed. They currently millions of them from places outside of the Western hemisphere.
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___All this wil have an effect on consumption. The US may be 450 million at half century mark, not insignificant considering how much energy it consumes. Europe is farther along in aging, and will peak in population soon. Projections for developing countries look even greater. As they both grow rapidly in energy demand and wealth, their population will rapidly slow to below replacement (South Korea for example). How orderly is the question. Just look at China, where it exploded under Mao, then clamped down afterwards with "one child policy".
Posted by: allen zheng | 01 July 2006 at 06:25 AM
Allen:
I live in Canada, and especially for Western part, where I live, this country managed to maintain incredibly tolerant and freedom-abiding atmosphere between it more then 50% not Canadian born population. Same could be achieved elsewhere. If not, Europe will crush this fundamental muslim cockroaches with its inherent and refined in centuries cruelty and efficiency, no problem here.
It is not nearly the same problem with latinos in US, which are overwhelmingly law-abiding hard-working people of same cultural background. Some problems, like second generation latino teenagers gangs are just grows problem, which could (but unfortunately not yet) be addressed.
P.S. I do not know how it is relevant to Green Car Congress mainframe discussion.
Posted by: Andrey | 02 July 2006 at 05:04 AM
Consumption, 300 million vs 450 million. Think about it.
Posted by: allen zheng | 02 July 2006 at 05:12 AM
Japan is the third largest crude oil consumer in the world, but you should see the tiny tin boxes, they are driving in (K cars with 0.66 liters), going 10 miles on a thimble. There are no freeways, every major interstate is a tollway. The 300 miles between Tokyo and Osaka, for example, cost about $120 toll - which is about the price for a shinkansen superexpress train ticket! What a coincidence.
Quite amazing that they still use so much imported oil.
Concerning the "stinky, dirty diesel".
The popularity of diesel cars in Germany and Europe in general has several reasons, first it is noticeably cheaper than gasoline, second, the energy contents per gallon is about 20% higher than gasoline (almost double of ethanol!), which results in less fuel consumption in comparable engines and last not least the high technological standard, diesel cars have reached in Germany. Will we see more in the US?
For those familiar only with the sooty smoke belching from older big-rig trucks and buses or the foul smells from 1970s diesel cars, the answer is compounded. But modern diesel engine design (common-rail direct injection and soot filters and catalysts) coupled with the much-cleaner types of diesel fuel increasingly available, particularly biodiesel, make diesel vehicles a surprisingly environmentally friendly choice. Diesel-hybrid-electrics would be an obvious positive development with a mileage up to 80 miles per gallon already reality (Daimler Chrysler - but even US Ford already reaches 65mpg).
You would be quite suprised about the comfort and performance of VW, Mercedes and other diesel cars. No black smoke, no smell anymore. Even the NOx contents will be lowered with the next generation with new catalysts.
I had an OPEL Vectra turbo diesel 1.9 liter van during my last visit in Germany and checked it out with the board computer. Without any technical changes (rent-a-car), it did 46 mpg at 60 to 70 mph and even at the indicated top speed of 150 mph (no joke!) it used a mere 26mpg.
And it was absolutely lively with its turbocharger, no difference to the standard gas version, which I drove some month earlier.
So GM has already the technology, its just the US consumer, but that will one day change.
Posted by: Hamako | 31 August 2006 at 02:30 AM