|Forecast German domestic consumption of petroleum fuels. Click to enlarge.|
In its just-released annual forecast to the German petroleum industry, the MWV (the Association of the German Petroleum Industry: Mineralölwirtschaftsverband), estimates that domestic consumption of gasoline and diesel will drop a combined 25.4% from 54.9 million tonnes of fuel consumed in 2004 to 39.6 million tonnes in 2025.
The drop for gasoline is more precipitous, as diesel is steadily gaining marketshare in Germany. From 25 million tonnes in 2004, MWV projects that gasoline consumption will drop 41.9% to 13.6 million tonnes by 2025. Diesel consumption increases from 2004’s 29.9 million tonnes until tipping over after 2010 to drop down to 26 million tonnes by 2025 (-12.5% from 2004).
Driving the forecast decrease in consumption are projected increases in new car fuel efficiency combined with an ongoing shift to diesel, increased usage of biofuels, a shrinking population, and reduced use compelled by high prices. MWV develops its forecast as part of the results of a survey of its membership, which includes German refineries and fueling station operators.
With the decrease in consumption, carbon dioxide emissions from road traffic would fall by 30% to 113 million tonnes a year, according to the MWV.
The decrease in domestic consumption will lead to increased net exports of car fuels from Germany, according to the MWV.