I am a little surprised by the comments on Lithium Ion battery safety and cycle life. The press releases I've read by Altair and A123 batteries seem to suggest that their batteries have passed safety tests with flying colors. I thought they had beat the overheating problem period. I've also read that the new Lithium Ion Nano-tech batteries are essentially good for the life of the car.

What gives.

The A123 batteries are being tested in a plug-in hybrid Prius as we speak. 9 kWh pack made from 26650 type cells adding 60 kg to car weight.

http://hybrids-plus.com/

I understand that Altair tests got a 9000 cycle life out of their batteries. But there was no indication of their calendar shelf life. Anyone heard?

PHEVs have promise, but they still cost at least an additional $10,000 for a very limited range and low top speed. Reasonable battery costs are always just around the corner. In the mean time, auto companies should be investing in ways that permit vehicles to get super mpg, i.e., at least 100 mpg without the necessity to charge heavy batteries from the grid. They could start with lighter materials such as carbon fiber and bigger battery capacities and larger electric motors as costs come down.

It's kind of like solar PV for your home. The first thing to do is to make your home as efficient as possible. Only after you have maximized efficiency does it make sense to then install PV or solar thermal.

Like the article implies, it also makes sense to have a wide range of options and price points or even the ability to upgrade one's vehicle as battery costs, longevity, recharge times, and weight come down.

In the mean time, we can make tremendous strides in cutting oil use by fully utilizing the technologies we already have and the size vehicles we already have.

As usual, changes in our value systems will have more impact than changes in our vehicle systems.

"PHEVs have promise, but they still cost at least an additional $10,000"

The next Prius is meant to have a 9 mile EV mode, rechargeable from the grid to its onboard lithium-ion battery (according to a senior Toyota engineer).

That 9 mile range would require 2 kWh of storage, assume 2.5 kWh if cycling between 80% DOD.

How much would that cost? Well, since you can buy lithium-ion 18650s for $3 per cell, and each holds 9 Wh, that's $330 per kWh.

Remove the Prius NiMH battery (-$700) and add 2.5 kWh of 18650 LiIon (+$825) and you have a PHEV-Prius for $125 more than a standard Prius.

It does not need to be anything like $10,000.

t-.

You have the proper approach. Let efficiency guide us for the purchase of new or replacement vehicles. This may have already started to some extend. The retailers lots are full of unsold Gas guzzlers in our city even with $8000 rebates.

If we all refuse to buy a vehicle with less than 40 mpg or even 50 mpg efficiency this could do more for the reduction of fosill fuel consumption than a few thousand hybrids while promoting the purchase of more Hybrids and future PHEVs.

Unfortunately, our love affair with 3-Ton dinosaurs is so strong that most of us will not give up those gas guzzlers until our pocket book is depleted.

The switch to more efficient, lighter and probably more expensive vehicles will not occur on a massive scale until the price of liquid fuel (fossil or bio) goes up significantly.

A $3+/gal progressive (over 3-5 years) carbon tax may be required to convince most of us. Are we mature enough to accept this inevitable tax? Would any politicians be re-elected after such a move?

Politicians would much prefer to see crude oil at $150+barrel/barrel so they could wash their hands of it and maintain that it is not their fault if the price at the pump has gone up from $3+ to $6+.

Unfortunately, while the end objective may be attained with $150+/barrel, the green backs would be going to the wrong places unless we quickly divert food crops to the production of ethanol and n-butanol on a massive scale.

clett.

If you what you say is true, then that means the current retrofitters are truly ripping people off. Why can't they do what you propose?

Capital, capital, capital. That is the barrier to more efficient non-poluting cars and all new technologies. If state and local governments committed themselves to buy only PHEVs the capital would flow to the manufacturers quickly. Investors want customers before they invest.

A Li-ion battery like the 18650 lacks the deep-discharge cycle life required for EV or strong PHEV applications. But it's manufacturing cost observed by Kert should be representative of that which will be achieved using the improved power/life-cycle technologies that are just becoming available (eg. A123, Altair-nano). While the energy density of these new formulations is lower than that of the 18650 and the initial cost/KW-Hr will be higher, observing the cost of these widely available cells provides a good perspective.

Clett, those $3 18650 Li-ion cells don't put out nearly enough power for the Prius and only last about 500 hundred cycles (4500 EV miles). They also have problems with flammability and explosiveness, especially in large size automotive packs. I don't know of any serious manufacturer considering regular Li-ion (lithium cobalt) cells.

Newer chemistries, such as lithium iron phosphate (Valence, A123) and lithium mangenese oxide (several vendors) promise to solve the power, safey and cycle life issues. But the few that are in production are still very expensive. I hope to see acceptable price/performance in 2-3 years.

The AC Propulsion work is very neat, but with no firm production date, and an expected price "somewhere between a Porsche and a Ferrari," it seems as if their designs are at least a few years away from the mainstream.

All the same, downsizing the battery pack from an all-electric range of 100-200 miles to a PHEV-style 20-40 miles (and adapting it for a vehicle somewhat larger than a two-seat roadster) should bring the price down from the stratospheric to the merely unaffordable. The Li-Ion lifespan issues (calendar/discharge cycle) also need to be addressed. A very near car, though.

Hybrid Technologies has a $125K all electric supercar ( LiX-75 ) full of lithium batteries for sale now.
Thats merely unaffordable, not stratospheric.

Unfortunately, while the end objective may be attained with $150+/barrel, the green backs would be going to the wrong places unless we quickly divert food crops to the production of ethanol and n-butanol on a massive scale.
Harvey,
Let's do the math: In 2005, it is estimated that about 14% of the US corn harvest (total harvest: about 10 billion bushels) was used to produce 4 billion gallons of ethanol. Sounds like a lot? It's only 260,000 bpd. To put that in perspective, it is enough to replace almost 1% of the US crude demand, after factoring in that ethanol does not pack the same punch as gasoline. You don't have to be an economist to know that long before you make a dent in crude imports, you are going to cause corn shortages and affect the price American families pay for food.

For those who are slow: converting 100% of the US corn harvest into ethanol would allow us to produce ~7% of our oil needs.

So, if "we quickly divert food crops to the production of ethanol" we would not be achieving much ito energy independence. The food shortages would be quite noticeable, though!