It's hard for the EIA to take into account any new technologies (like GreenFuel). And I think their numbers for biodiesel are WAY too low, given that this year the NBB expects to have 150 million gallons sold, up from 75 million in 2005. There's several hundred million more gallons of capacity currently under construction. We'll hit a full billion before the end of the decade, I think.

As for CTL, I don't see much choice over the short to medium term. There are climate risks, but I think that depending on countries like Nigeria and Saudi Arabia for our energy supplies is a bad idea.

Yes, they have completely discounted Bio-fuels, there is an article in www.bloomberg.com which talks
about the progress of those fuels.

Ethanol consumption has increased from 3.6 billion gallons in 2004 to 4.2 billion in 2005. And 40 new
Ethanol refineries are being built. That 14.6 billion gallons they mentioned should be attained in
another 10 years and by 2030, it should hit 30 billion gallons + .

Sales of Flex-fuel have hit around 800,000 last year, but they are projecting only 2 million by 2030

In the last 3 years, the gas stations offering E10 has increased from just 10 % to 46 %. Similarly
stations offering E85 has increased from 300 to 1000.

Coal will dominate, but Oil consumption will not increase. Where will the extra oil come from.
Mexico's production in their largest oil well is declining by 10 %. So is the case of North Sea Oil.

The data for this article must be provided by some Oil company.

Max,
Let's just say food->fuel is an exceptionally bad idea, one only the federal government could be promoting. I predict that within a year or two all those new corn ethanol plants are going to start going bankrupt, unable to win a bidding war for the available corn with other users (most of whom can pass the cost along to consumers). If ethanol prices go up (it is already more expensive than gasoline in terms of BTUs), they won't sell any, and OPEC will be having a good laugh at their expense.

Sounds basically like status quo with only marginal changes to me. Somehow, I don't think that the environment, economy, or world politics will allow the status quo to continue that long, and if it/we do, I'm guessing we're boned.

The target for immediate change should be the 50% coal fired power plants. THIS is where conversion to green fueled H2 would make a lot of sense. The conversion path is pretty clear: coal fire and convert flue CO2 to grow algae for H2/biodiesel production. Eventually ramp the H2 production through to run the turbines.

Not that simple but a schematic anyway.

An Engineer -

since EPA insists on oxygenates for summer gasoline in certain parts of the country, the market for ethanol as a fuel ethanol won't dry up. However, there is a risk of an ethanol glut if the US dollar price of crude should unexpectedly drop. Btw, making corn more expensive might be a good idea in that in the future people may have to fit into much smaller cars.

I was reading thru this report today. EIA and peak oil people must not be on the same planet. EIA has production increasing thru 2015.

As far as alternatives, the report very explicitly states that this report is a "no policy changes" report. This means no carbon tax or cap/trade. An alternative scenario report with various policy effects comes out next year.

Depending on what recoverable reserve figure and technology curve you use, and who you believe, peak oil was 2005, or will be ~2030. The view of the decline after the peak also varies. Some have a somewhat smooth decline. Others have declines and smaller peaks/upticks afterwards, as the general production trend shows a decline.
_The issue is do we use another trillion+ barrels of crude and 50 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, not to mention carbon intensive coal , w/all the GHGs that go with it? By 2030, we could have another 900+ million metric tons of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Yeah, this report is definitely written by a govt faction. Time changes realities pretty quickly. I wonder what the EIA would have said just 8 years ago, when petroleum was dirt cheap and there was little buzz about peak oil and a whole slew of other concerns. Let's be honest, and I think the EIA should be honest here too. They can't accurately predict what the energy future will look like beyond a couple of years, 5 at the most. Who would have thought 5 years ago that we'd be all abuzz about ethanol, biodiesel, clean diesel cars in the US, solar energy, more nuclear power plants???

No surprise that a govt agency predicts a big ethanol future, meanwhile downplays biodiesel and diesel cars, hybrids, natural gas.

I won't try to pretend like I know what things will be like in 24 years, but here are some pretty safe bets as to what is going to happen within a decade:

Ethanol- will increase, then level off. The EIA estimates are too high. Ethanol won't get that big.

Biodiesel- will be bigger than EIA estimates. Part of the reason being that all car manufacturers will have diesels for all 50 states within by 2009. Diesels are so much more efficient than gas or E85 vehicles.

Petroleum oil- at best, the supply and demand will be equal to today, as other fuels increase. Prices will increase sharper than the EIA estimates as production in all countries dwindles.

Nuclear energy- EIA is pretty close on this one. I'd like to hope it will meet a higher percentage of our electricity needs, but the unsubstantiated fears of the public will prevent this from becoming real big.

Coal energy- will get bigger and bigger. For electricity, not much change percentage wise. Coal-to-liquids seems very promising. If a few companies can do it cheaply, CTL will become a huge industry.

Natural gas- will increase a bit over at least next 2 decades. Between LNG increases (better transport) and the rising demand by power companies and the newer technologies that may give nonconventional natural gas, natural gas should do well over next 2 decades at least.

Hybrid cars- will become bigger than the EIA estimates. Far more than 2 million sold per year in 2030. The economies of scale will allow them to be marketable to more people. The likelihood of plug-in hybrids will alone make this a big industry. 2 million per year sold before 2020, as long as the batteries can be supplied. By 2030, 5 million for cars and trucks. Hopefully quite a few for delvery trucks, big rigs.

Diesel cars- more than 2 million sold per year before 2030. Once the word is out that diesels are clean and so is the fuel (low sulfur, low nitrogen oxides) people will buy them more. Once word of mouth gets around about how much better mileage one gets, demand will skyrocket. Diesels will be 25% or more of all new cars sold by 2025. By 2030, probably more like 35%.

Overall, investing into almost any part of the energy sector looks good, except for the Big Oil companies in the long term.

Don't count wind out that much. Many farmers would still like to have a $1k-$10k/wind turbine/year check. Many Great Plains, Great Lakes, hilltop, and seaside farmers have enough land and wind for at least a few of multi MW turbines. There is the issue of transmission distance, though the Majave to LA is roughly as far as parts of Kansas and Nebraska to Kansas City. Similarly, the distance from the Bay Area to The Mojave is roughly that of from North Dakota to Minneapolis/St. Paul. The Tug Hill Plateau, and other areas downwind of Lake Erie, and Lake Ontario could supply Upstate NY, with the potential to expand to supply the larger Northeast market.

The national biodiesel board states that 583.5 million gallons of biodiesel production capacity is currently complete and another 1.4 billion gallons are currently under construction with many more plants in the planning stages. I think the EIA needs to check their figures.

Considering Wind energy grew 27% last year and 26% this year, and considering that every turbine manufacturer is adding capacity, it seems other-worldly that EIA would project 1.5% growth for wind energy out through 2030. Wind couples well with Natural gas, allowing existing gas plants to be throttled back when the wind is blowing. This works economically even at today's gas prices. Given past trends in natural gas prices it seems that the solution of adding wind capacity will be even more profitable in future.