Very good results. I would like to see a total accounting, it appears that GM has done more to reduce fuel consumption overall with the Hybrid bus than Toyota has done with the Prius, but Toyota gets the PR win as the public perception is just the opposite.

Fewer busses, running all the time, VS more cars but much less use.
Also, not sure what the majority of Prius owners replaced to purchase a Prius so fuel savings would be difficult to estimate.

2 years ago in Seattle the results were just the opposite.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/transportation/203509_metro13.html

"...an evaluation of total cost per mile gave the hybrids a distinct operational economic advantage: $1.06 per mile compared to the diesel $1.25 per mile."

While this is pretty impressive, I think one big expense probably not captured in such a 12 month study is depreciation of the batteries in a hybrid. Not sure how long the batteries are supposed to last (6 years? 8 years?), but this is one major cost that the diesels won't ever have.

---

Of interest from the study -- "The new hybrid articulated buses cost $645,000 each. The diesel articulated buses, which were essentially identical to the hybrid buses without the electric propulsion system, cost $445,000 each."

Also mention of a bus life span of 12 years. (Pg. 7)

"KC Metro wanted the hybrid buses to be able to operate in the [1.3 mile long] tunnel only on electric power, without any engine operation, to reduce tailpipe and noise emissions in the tunnel. The Allison engineers determined that the hybrid buses could operate in the tunnel on battery power only, but this would severely reduce battery life..."

---

3500 miles per month x 12 months x 12 years = 504,000 miles.
$200,000 extra cost / 504,000 miles = 39.7 cents per mile + ? for round of battery replacement.

What would happen to the total economic picture if avoided GHG (at about $85/tonne) + other air pollution (PM etc) were factored in?

One could always add associated health cost and other secondary pollution side effects.

The 40 cents/mile differential may be fully nullified when all factors are duly considered.

Frankly, I would think that would have been a good idea to continue collecting side-by-side data over the full 12 year lifespan of the buses. Conventional buses require midlife engine rebuilds, which cost a good deal. What do hybrid buses requre at midlife? Perhaps new batteries -- not sure. Engine rebuild? Maybe not, as the hybrid system might allow the diesel to operate more smoothly, extending its life. I will assume at this point that consumables such as oil and brake pads have been counted into the 5% operational savings. What about reliability? Are hybrids more reliable than conventional buses now? When both types are older? How much might that be worth? What about the value of the bus used (after 12 years) or as scrap? Are hybrids worth more or less because of their batteries?

The point is, we can speculate and project about the total life cycle costs of all these elements, but continued tracking of the Seattle buses would provide a much better idea of the reality behind these issues.

Here is another NREL Transit bus evaluation report, for New York City, Hybrid vs. CNG --

http://www.nrel.gov/vehiclesandfuels/fleettest/pdfs/40125.pdf

Of note -- "Engine -- NYCT plans to replace the smaller than standard transit bus diesel engine used in the hybrid buses at approx. year 6 out of the 12 year life. A standard diesel or CNG bus would typically have one engine overhaul during the 12 year life without any planned engine replacements." (Pages x, xi)

"Traction Batteries -- The traction batteries for the NYCT hybrid buses are sealed gel lead-acid batteries... 46 battery modules total. These batteries (based on recommendations from the manufacturer), are expected to last at least 3 years, and then they will need to be replaced (or three sets of traction batteries during the 12 year life of the bus)." (Page xi)

"Brakes -- During this evaluation, the hybrid buses had brake repair costs that were 79% lower than for the CNG buses (CNG $0.18 per mile vs Hybrid $0.04 per mile)." (Page xi)

Always fan to see how brain-dead idiots discuss the economy merits of new emerging technology.

I was surprised to learn that these buses get only 2.5 MPG. That would mean that a car getting 25 MPG and only one occupant is just as efficient as a bus carrying 10 people! A solo occupant hybrid at 50 MPG would be just as efficient as a fully loaded bus with 20 people!
(of course this is only looking at the fuel and not the emissions)

While 12 years is the 'official' lifetime of a new bus I drove buses over 30 years old on a regular basis for over 5 years. Transit buses are used for over 25 years by being transfered to smaller transit systems. I'm certain that penny pinching politicians will squeeze as many years as possible out of those hybrids. A decade from now ultracaps may be a very cost effective retrofit for these hybrids.

Andrey,

The economic merits of emerging technologies should not be discussed? By anyone? By people on this site? If not here, then where? If there is no point to discussion here, what are you doing on this site?

Sorry for overemotional comment.

NBK:

Do you really think that bus costs as much as 30 Corollas (with combined passenger capacity of 150 riders)? Or hybrid bus real price premium is 200 000 – 20 times more than hybrid price premium of three Priuses with comparable combined power output? I doubt that coming this year GM full size pick-ups with two-mode hybrid transmission, which is slightly scaled-down Allison unit used in hybrid buses, will carry price premium of anything like two or one hundred grand.

US/Canada taxpayers are routinely milked by hugely overpriced public transportation spending, with price of buses, trains, etc. being 3-5 times higher than buses, trains, etc. built with same engines (under licensing from western companies) in India or China.

Also note, that big companies are doing their R&D on money earned from past sales of their vehicles. They do capitalize on price premium of new superior technology (like Toyota does), but generally their R&D spending are already paid for, and there is no need to overprice their products to return R&D capital. The case with hybrid buses prices is clear continuation of overpricing practice carried out by government officials responsible for public transport.

It makes all back-envelope calculations of hybrid or CNG bus economy just silly.