Neil -

Last I read, around $4.50 a gallon.

fyi CO2:

Actually the birthrates in many Western European countries have declined to highly anemic levels. One of the major exceptions to the generalization that highly developed countries have very low birthrates is the United States, which has a moderate birthrate. Birthrates tend to be highest in the poorest countries, not the most energy-hungry ones.

Gas in Tokyo is currently about JPY130 per litre or about $1.10 per litre. I was driving in downtown Tokyo yesterday and we commented that nearly 50% of the cars were taxis. All running on LPG. That is, not that many people generally use their cars during the week. Mini cars or "Kei" Cars have engine capacity of 660 cc max and have lower road tax creating an incentive to buy them. They cost about $10,000 new and are pretty spacious. Driving in Japan with the standard GPS fitted in most cars is actually pretty easy. I used to enjoy it until I started reading this web site. Now I feel too guilty and just catch the train. I clocked up about 4000 kms last year. Another disincentive to owning a car in Japan is that you have to pay at least $200 per month to park it where you live and there is no free parking anywhere on Japanese streets. Everyone uses the train, walks and there are few fat people here. And the food is great!

Declining population growth is general trend, not an exception. For developed countries their population is either already declining, or will begin to decline in couple of years. Some relief for US, Canada, Australia, France, and GB is provided by immigration, or initially higher birth rate in families of new immigrants.

Population in Japan, S. Korea, Russia, Norway – and many other countries is declining at alarming rate. It is, actually, matter of grave concern to their governments and people.

Population growth is practically stopped in China. Significant reduction in birth rate demonstrate India, Egypt, Brazil, Mexico, etc. This is the reason why UN predicted that global population will stabilize around 2050 at about 9 billion, and then begin to decline. Information on the web is plentiful to one who cares to check it before posting.

But I understand concerns of fyiCO2. Every human being emits about two thousand pounds of carbon dioxide per year just by breezing, not to count how much fuel is spent to support it. It is clearly not sustainable.

Global population growth peaked in percentage terms a generation or more ago. It peaked in absolute terms about a decade ago, IIRC. Demographic momentum is keeping populations growing for a while in many countries (such as: most industrialized ones) even as, in those countries, the total fertility rate (lifetime average number of children per female) has dropped well below 2.

Japan is interesting in that it was one of the first countries where the population aged enough that demographic momentum exhausted itself and the actual population began to decline. Reversing this trend will take a while, if it is possible at all.

Everytime I travel to Japan (usually once a year), there is a noteable increase in the number of overweight people. It seems worse in the countryside. Just a personal observation, but it does seem to (not surprisingly) correlate inversely with the cost and positively with necessity of car ownership.

Kudos to Japan for reducing its demand for gasoline!

Posted by: Paul Dietz | Feb 1, 2007 8:34:34 AM:

> Japan is interesting in that it was one of the first
> countries where the population aged enough that
> demographic momentum exhausted itself and the actual
> population began to decline. Reversing this trend will
> take a while, if it is possible at all.

Let's remember to ask another question, besides "is it possible." And that question is, "is it desirable?"

Until global population levels stabilize, and that time is still decades away, then no country should be trying to increase its birth rate. Got a labor shortage? Import immigrants.

Im actauly even if allhumans on earth turned to stone right now the earth wouldstill warm up alot by 2107. It has less to do with us and more to do with feedback loops in the systems that are LARGE and now in charge.

Also even if humans ghad never existed in the first place solar cycles and vlimate changes would still have made it very likely the climate would shift now. Its simple one of those times.

Combine alot of ghg with alot of farmland and cities.. add in changes to the eartnh surface by man and nature.. add in a changing solar cycle ... add in everything else and bake ate above room temp for several hundred years until done;/

Right now alot of this is moreabout who we want to save who we will save and who we want to kill and who we will kill. Hrsg as it may be there are alot of people the developed world doesnt want moving thier way and the longer it takes for them to start moving the sheaper it will be to kill them when they try.

Actauly if you add in the differences caused by the new testing methods and the new fuels brng in over the years from 1985 to now the us HAS improved thier cars quite a bit.

Its just that not only is the fuel far worse as far as mpg but the tests produce far lower mpg figures AND of course lets not forget our own roads themselves waste more fuel now then we likely even used in total in 1985.

Also when cfe started and still to this day several of the auto makers were in fact mostly truck makers. The way cafe was set up thus with fleet averages was a total screwup wich only now bush of all people is bright enough to try and fix.

If a car maker makes trucks and is in fact NOT a car maker but a truck maker they should have thier TRUCKS tested and caclulated vs othe trucks.

Byt then the morons who made the original cafe standards were in fact total morons.