GO, Tesla, GO!!!!!!

Let's just hope they manage to keep the UAW out of their manufacturing plant. For all the good the union has done its members, it has forced auto industry managers to pursue product strategies that have proven not only detrimental to the environment (specifically, the climate) but also perilous to the balance sheets in times of high oil prices.

I hope Tesla can pull a rabbit out of its hat. The approach of adding a lot of value to high-quality but otherwise commodity Li-ion cells through innovative packaging makes a great deal of sense. It was also smart of them to focus on a roadster first, because the drivetrain differentiation matters a great deal there.

What's going to be much more difficult is dealing with all the other engineering effort that has to go into a full-featured performance sedan, especially if it is to be produced in any meaningful volume (at least tens of thousands a year). It will be much, much harder to deliver competitive differentiation in that vehicle segment.

Perhaps they are not-so-secretly hoping that one of the majors will bite the bullet and license their IP or, buy them outright. If the EU decides to enact per-manufacturer targets for fleet average CO2 emissions, several German carmakers may decide they need to invest in PHEV/BEV technology to stay in business.

I went on the Tesla website about a week ago, and found an interview with Elon Musk from the show "Wired Science". It was pretty interesting, the guy has his fingers in a lot of different projects. At any rate, Elon said that the Roadster is considered as a "Phase 1" for their company. Phase 2 is the 4 door all-electric sedan spoken of above. He estimates this vehicle will run in the 40-50 grand bracket. He then went on to say that they hope to bring out a Phase 3 vehicle similar to the Phase 2, except in the 30 grand bracket. I'm anxious to see these upcoming additions as I have been thinking a long time, someone should make a mass market, All-Electric, a model with universal appeal like a Camry or Accord. The EV-1 was ground breaking, but not quite where it needed to be in terms of mass market appeal. I hope their Roadster works without any serious glitches.

Richard -

it may be true that the Big Three made decisions in the 1950s that seemed like a good idea at the time but have since become boat anchors for the entire US auto industry. The UAW has contributed to the problem by insisting that this 1950s model be continued to the present day, almost regardless of the competitive environment.

And even if the UAW is not directly involved in product roadmap decisions (unlike in Germany, for example), it's insistence on generous benefits has forced US carmakers to concentrate their efforts on relatively simple, cheap-to-build trucks and SUVs in favor of competitive passenger cars, because the margins on those are lower. This lack of diversity in their product line-ups at a time of rapidly changing fuel prices and customer expectations, combined with those generous benefits, has ended up costing tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs and a lot of shareholder value.

This is not to say that management hasn't been arrogant or made mistakes in the past. Just don't discount the impact of union contracts that the US auto industry can really no longer afford the way it did in the last century.

In an earlier post someone asserted that Telsa was the wave of the future because they were so "un-detroit" by being based in California. By opening a tech center in Michigan, are they now still "un-detroit", and to be still considered the savior of our personal transport vehicles?

I do like what I see, but until they offer something in the $14,000-$22,000 price range, they are way out of my market. Of course that offering would also have to be acompanied with an offer of 60-84 month financing, and a 10 year/100,000 mile warranty. But being electric, it should easily last that long. Until then, it will be only a novely loved by the Jay Lenos and George Clooneys of the world, along with their other 268 "financially sound" potential buyers.

Dont get me wrong, I firmly believe BEV are our future. Its just that the required economical batteries and fuel cells have not been deliverered, yet. I applaud Tesla for being the trailblazer in these efforts. Perhaps they could go a long way creating an alliance with a company such as Ford, benefiting both. Would not be a terrible thing in my view.

super390:

That's quite the rant, there.

Hello fellows BEV aficionados,

I also applaud Tesla for what they are doing and yet I agree with staying out of Michigan altogether, would look much better in my book. By the way, with a plant[?] of only less than 20K sq-fts I strongly doubt that they would be able to manufafacture anything there...perhaps it is going to be just a tech/R&D Center, but than again, why not stay in sunny California??? Oh well, they might be attracted to the cold weather or something else in Michigan.

By the way, as I previously posted on this site there's a new up-and-coming BEV company which for what I heard they are going to blow away both Tesla and Phoenix due to the fact that they own their proprietary battery technology as well as because the production plant is apparently somewhere south of the border in order to keeo the cost of production as low as possible. Also, my friend who's brother works there told me that they have already sold several hundred BEVs to governments sout of the border whcih helps them to finance at least a part of their ops as well as testing the vehicles before they land on US soil. Smart move...I think.

And, last but not least, they are coming out with 5 BEV models as well as a couple of small vans/busses all at once raning from a small [Scion xA/Mercedes A Type] car, to a cool sedan, a SUV/SUT and a couple of great looking coupe/spiders. I heard their price range will start from the low $15K and up...

I was promised to preview the updated design/models and I can't wait for that day which should be soon!

I'll keep you all informed as soon as I have news.

Fred "BEV" Sands PhD

Come on Fred, you have to give us more than that. What is this company's name? Can a company with no name really blow away both Tesla and Phoenix, or are they "skunkwork" type secret? There are no surprises in todays automotive market.

Also, what does super390's rant have to do with Tesla or this post?

1) Super390; Right on Brother!
2) Why can't the Grovenment push "pariotism" in reducing and eliminating fossil fuels?
3) Fred can dream and talk about what he knows, but in the end, the small startup BEV companies do not have a chance against the big car companies. The best case that ever will happen is to be a "brand" for a big company.

super390's rant was in answer to a gratuitous swipe at the UAW. I suppose none of that really belongs in a discussion of the Tesla.

JC et al -

my point was simply that unions tend to hang on to their past "achievements" way past their sell-by date. Not every company with UAW employees was as foolish as the Big Three in offering overly generous benefits. That's precisely why they are now profitable. It is also a big reason why the Big Three are hurting. Ford just posted a $12 billion loss, and Chrysler will have to do bleed once again before the can get the kind of relief that GM and Ford have already received.

Btw, US unions are hardly alone in exploiting their negotiating position to the detriment of shareholders and ultimately, employees. Witness the bribery contortions VW has been going through to keep the IG Metall compliant, their former head of HR was convicted just today. Chairman of the board Ferdinand Piech, who is actually close to the union, admitted that VW has approx. 30% more hourly workers on its German payroll than it needs and has done so for decades. Small wonder the average age of the assembly line workforce is 46 and rising.

Fred:

What you described seems to be very similar to what is happening in China ...... not exactly south of the USA border.

The Chinese market will be flooded with a multitude of low cost BEVs very shortly. Some of those Chinese BEVs (e-bikes) are selling very well (5 to 8 million/year) in Asia and North America. Three and four wheel models, from 2 to 10 passengers, will be out within a few months for those of us who can't afford American made Telsa, Phoenix, etc.

Walmart is currently selling the 2-wheel models and may be selling the 3 and 4-wheel models within a year or two unless Big Oil and Big Three lobbies manage to convince the Federal Administration to find various ways to curtail or even ban BEVs import.

Electric motors do have loads of torque.