This is a great way to get a new technology to market that much faster. Way to go AQMD.

It would be interesting to know exactly why the other 3 vendors were ranked "as not technically qualified ".

I would agree that the Hymotion is a very elegent design, but are the other 3 really that bad?

Kyle Dansie

That's $86,666 per vehicle. WTF? I thought these conversions on a onesy, twosy basis were going from 10 to 15 k. Clearly, there must be some other support services being provided or this cost just demonstrates the absurdity of PHEV conversion.

Neil the contract is for more than just the conversion. If you read the artical carefully It is also for Pr and R&d. Paid for by us taxpayers of course.

At $9,500 per installation, it'll take ~150k miles with gas at $3 a gallon for the install to pay itself off. Everything after that is money in the consumer's pocket. I'd say it's cheap insurance considering where gas prices are likely headed.

Yesplease:

Even assuming your calculations were correct, would the battery have been replaced by the time one reached 150,000 miles or shortly thereafter. That sort of break even point is hardly comforting. Most consumers would have traded in their auto long before the break even point was reached. Also, wouldn't there be a certain amount of degradation during that time frame?

At these prices, I am not sure that one could ever justify the upgrade economically. And remember, the baseline is the Prius or other hybrid cars not a car with just an ICE engine. For the Prius, this means the starting point is a mpg approaching 50. In addition, the next generation Prius is supposed to significantly beat the current Prius in economy.

So, we are left with justifying this based upon savings in carbon emissions. I would like to see an analysis that showed that over, say, 100,000 miles.

I am all for erring on the side of the environment when it comes to spending money on auto, houses, PV, whatever. After all, I own a Prius. However, when faced with an additional expenditure, it is often prudent to think what environmental benefits one could get with an alterntive use of that money. Insulating one's house, for example, would be a much better investment than spending an extra $10,000 on a plug in.

For the sake of discussion, let's start with the claimed mileage of a plug in Prius of 100 mpg. Your mileage may vary, but we have to start somewhere. Let's also assume that the current Prius gets 50 mpg.

The standard Prius consumes 240 gallons of gas per year at 50 mpg and 12,000 miles. 12,000/50=240.

At $2.50 per gallon, that's 240*2.50= $600.

The gas for the 100 mpg vehicle would be half that or $300 for a $300 savings.

But we must pay for electricity. Let's say that 6,000 of those miles could be attributable to the purchased electricity input.

The Prius gets 2.5 miles per kw (if you have better numbers, plug these in). At a very conservative $.08 per kw, that means the electricity costs $.032 per mile. At 6,000 miles, that $192.

Therefore, our net annual savings is $300-$192 or $108. The break even point at a $10,000 delta charge is $10,000/$108 or 52 plus years.

As I said, the assumed kw cost is conservative. On the other hand, one could easily project much higher gasoline costs, even up to $5 per gallon going forward. But that still doesn't give you anything like a reasonable pay off time.

One could also change the result significantly by assuming that all miles were driven in electric mode. But the break even time would still be absurd or $10,000/300 or 33 plus years.

I think the plug in starts to make sense if you can get the marginal cost down to about $2000. But that is barring any significant improvements in the current Prius. As I said, significant improvements seem to be in the works.

And btw, if all miles were driven in electric mode, what would be the point of a plug in hybrid?

$86 000 per vehicle does not make much sense. There must be more to it. It must include the price of the original hybrid vehicles ++++. Otherwise, who can afford a Toyota Prius PHEV at $86 000.

Equivalent high performance lithium battery packs for the 3000 Chinese BEV garbage trucks was reported at $3333.33 each.

Mass production Chinese battery pack price should drop to between $1000 and $1500 within two years.

Control units + chargers cost should be equivalent and follow the same downward curve, when mass produced in China.

Todays price for conversion materials should not be much above $6666.66.

Current low volume installation cost + normal profit margin would be another $3333.33 to $5333.33 for a toal of about $10K to $12K per PHEV conversion. (Excluding the price of the original hybrid vehicles)

While it is true that the payoff period will vary depending upon how the car is driven, it is also clear that even under the most optimistic assumptions, even assuming no gas is ever used, the payback period is way beyond the lifetime of the car. As I said, lower the conversion to abouit $2,000 and the upgrade might make sense.

Frankly, I would rather just have a BEV as a second or third car for commuting or short trips and forget all the expenses associated with the ICE, including maintenance.

Unless we have some major breathroughs, a converted Prius, for example, will not make sense.

I should have specified... At roughly 150,000 miles all electric ;). Normally, a Prius getting 45mpg will have used ~150,000/45=~3333.33gallons, and with gas at $3 a gallon, this is ~$10,000. Not including electricity, which could be significant or insignificant depending on context, such as use of a free charging station on one hand, or paying the full rate of ~10 cents per kwh on the other. At the likely off peak time of day rate of ~5 cents per kwh (arb evinformation) and usage of ~200wh/mile, ~150,000 miles should cost ~$1500.

In terms of battery longevity, the 95ah NiMHs in the RAV-4 EV have gone up to 100,000+ miles as of 2003 and are expected to hit 150,000 miles. I saw one a few months ago, so given their use, it's reasonable to assume in three years they've made it to 150,000 miles, maybe even farther? I should take a peak at the odometer next time :)! Anyhoo... My point is that these batteries are nearly a decade old, and perform well enough to likely see ~150,000 miles in a pure EV. I don't see why, a ~decade later, we wouldn't see batteries that perform as well, if not better in these plug-in conversions.

So, depending on the price of gas, payback time is ~150k miles imo, give or take. If gas spikes, then it drops, and vice versa. A driver using the pack for a highway commute won't get the same value as one using it for all urban commuting... Electricity rates may vary... Etc...

I think it's available to most, it's just that most don't bother with time of day metering. AFAIK some companies set up energy storage devices just to take advantage of off peak rates because they are so cheap. Electricity production follows what's essentially a periodic function, the amplitude of which depends on the season, events, etc... But most of the grid's capacity is idle during the night/early morning, and it gradually increases until it peaks, usually some time during the late afternoon or early evening, then it drops off again... The only problem with the programs is that peak electricity rates are maybe 5 cents above what others pay, but off peak rates are nearly 10 cents below that.
http://www.riversideca.gov/utilities/resi-urate.asp
Ideally, the vehicle could have more than enough capacity for the daily commute, and be able to supply some electricity for the home during peak hours, which may result in even more savings for the consumer.

An LA Times article best summed up the benefits of PHEV with its very title, "The 500mpg Solution".

PHEV = THE 500MPG SOLUTION

Any advantage of diesel and bio-diesel is only possible in a plug-in hybrid drivetrain. And we shouldn't forget that the best emission reduction is achievable only in the PHEV drivetrain.

Whatever.

Even lead-acid PHEV conversions cost well over "a couple of hundred bucks", not to mention the many donated hours of labor. And PHEV conversions are well beyond the capabilities of knowledegable home mechanics.

However, there are still a few interesting tidbits to glean from the AQMD announcements: first, some of the money will go toward infrastruture - probably retrofitting some of the disused EV charging facilities around California; second, there's an option on the table for 100 more PHEVs within 18 months (or at least there was), and third: Ford is supporting Quantum on Escape conversions, probably through technical advice. Hymotion is getting support from Aerovironment.